1 1 © 2004 Outlook 4Mobility CONFIDENTIAL The Information provided herein is confidential; therefore, reader agrees not to disclose it without the express written permission. CONFIDENTIAL The Information provided herein is confidential; therefore, reader agrees not to disclose it without the express written permission. Andrew M. Seybold [email protected] Wireless Broadband?
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11 © 2
004
Out
look
4M
obilit
y
CO
NFI
DEN
TIA
LTh
e In
form
atio
n pr
ovid
ed h
erei
n is
conf
iden
tial;
ther
efor
e, re
ader
agr
ees
not t
o di
sclo
se it
with
out t
he e
xpre
ss w
ritte
n pe
rmis
sion
.
CO
NFI
DEN
TIA
LTh
e In
form
atio
n pr
ovid
ed h
erei
n is
conf
iden
tial;
ther
efor
e, re
ader
agr
ees
not t
o di
sclo
se it
with
out t
he e
xpre
ss w
ritte
n pe
rmis
sion
.
And
rew
M.
Seyb
old
andy
@4m
obili
ty.c
om
Wir
eles
sB
road
ban
d?
22 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
An
dre
w S
eyb
old
Gro
up
,LLC
Com
puti
ng a
nd C
omm
unic
ati
ons
Indust
ry C
onsu
ltin
g S
ervi
ces
www.
4mob
ility.c
om
The
Wir
eles
s Ex
peri
ence
Compr
ehen
sive
Wireles
s Dat
a Sa
les
Tra
ining
33 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Issu
es W
e W
ill A
ddre
ss T
oday
Issu
es W
e W
ill A
ddre
ss T
oday
!W
ill T
here
be
a Cle
ar W
inne
r in
Bro
adba
nd W
irel
ess
Dat
a Te
chno
logy
? !
How
will
3G
, W
i-Fi
, an
d W
iMax
far
e in
the
nex
t 2
to 3
ye
ars?
!W
ill W
irel
ess
beco
me
a Se
riou
s Fa
ctor
for
"La
st M
ile"
Con
nect
ivit
y?!
Will
Wir
eles
s Vo
IP t
ake
Busi
ness
fro
m C
ellu
lar
Ope
rato
rs?
!Is
Mor
e Sp
ectr
um n
eede
d fo
r U
nlic
ense
d W
irel
ess
Serv
ices
? (v
s. B
ette
r M
anag
emen
t, S
DR,
UW
B, e
tc.?
)
My
Job:
To
get
you
thin
king
, To
Get
you
Agi
tate
d, a
nd T
o So
met
imes
tak
e a
Con
trar
ian
View
!
44 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
The
New
Wir
eles
s H
ype!
The
New
Wir
eles
s H
ype!
!W
i-Fi
wit
h Vo
IP w
ill t
ake
cust
omer
s fr
om 3
G n
etw
orks
!W
ide-
area
and
Wi-
Fi p
hone
s an
d in
fras
truc
ture
are
com
ing
to a
ne
twor
k ne
ar y
ou s
oon
!W
iMAX
will
be
all t
hing
s to
all
peop
le!
Rega
rdle
ss o
f th
e fr
eque
ncy
band
, it
will
wor
k ou
t to
30
mile
s pe
r si
te!
!Th
e un
licen
sed
spec
trum
for
Wi-
Fi is
suf
feri
ng f
rom
inte
rfer
ence
so
we
need
mor
e sp
ectr
um!
Soft
war
e-de
fine
d ra
dios
, co
gnit
ive
radi
os w
ill m
ean
the
end
to t
he
spec
trum
sho
rtag
e!
New
for
tune
s w
ill b
e m
ade
in t
he w
irel
ess
fron
tier
!Th
e w
irel
ess
Inte
rnet
will
be
just
like
the
wir
ed In
tern
et,
only
unpl
ugge
d an
d ub
iqui
tous
55 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wir
eles
s D
ata
Trui
sms
Wir
eles
s D
ata
Trui
sms
!N
ot a
sin
gle
terr
estr
ial p
rovi
der
of w
irel
ess
data
-onl
y se
rvic
es h
as E
VER
mad
e a
prof
it!
!In
the
wid
e-ar
ea n
etw
ork
spac
e, d
ata
serv
ices
pro
vide
in
crem
enta
l rev
enue
to
the
oper
ator
s�vo
ice
pays
the
bill
s
!Th
e pl
ayin
g fi
eld
is m
ore
crow
ded
than
eve
r!
New
pla
yers
ent
er t
he f
ray
ever
y da
y
!Th
e m
ore
band
wid
th a
nd d
ata
spee
d yo
u pr
ovid
e, t
he
mor
e th
at w
ill b
e re
quir
ed!
The
spec
trum
is a
fin
ite
reso
urce
!Th
is p
oint
is h
otly
deb
ated
bet
wee
n th
e sp
ectr
um s
avvy
and
the
In
tern
et in
terl
oper
s
!RF
pro
paga
tion
is p
art
scie
nce
and
part
bla
ck m
agic
!In
terf
eren
ce w
ill n
ot b
e el
imin
ated
by
soft
war
e!
66 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wir
eles
s Tr
uism
sW
irel
ess
Trui
sms
!In
the
Am
eric
as,
ther
e w
ill N
OT
be a
sin
gle
wir
eles
s vo
ice
and
data
st
anda
rd!
We
will
hav
e to
live
wit
h m
ulti
ple
stan
dard
s!
Expe
ct t
o se
e w
irel
ess
hand
sets
and
dev
ices
tha
t w
ill b
e ca
pabl
eof
op
erat
ing
acro
ss v
ario
us t
echn
olog
ies
!In
oth
er w
ords
: Th
e ch
ip a
nd h
ands
et v
endo
rs w
ill �
fix�
the
mul
tipl
e st
anda
rds
issu
e
!Th
e fi
rst
roun
d of
tec
hnol
ogy
�rel
igio
us w
ars�
are
ove
r!
Each
net
wor
k ha
s ch
osen
its
pref
erre
d pa
th a
nd is
now
impl
emen
ting
it
!Th
ere
is n
o on
e si
ngle
net
wor
k th
at is
�al
l thi
ngs
to a
ll pe
ople
� !
Each
has
adv
anta
ges
and
disa
dvan
tage
s!
Choi
ces
will
con
tinu
e to
pro
vide
cus
tom
ers
wit
h va
lue
!Ch
oice
s w
ill c
onti
nue
to p
rovi
de m
arke
t di
ffer
enti
atio
n
!M
ost
cust
omer
s do
n�t
know
whi
ch t
echn
olog
y th
ey a
re u
sing
!
77 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wir
eles
s Tr
uism
sW
irel
ess
Trui
sms
!Th
ere
are
new
con
tend
ers
com
ing
!U
ltra
Wid
e Ba
nd!
WiM
AX!
TD-S
CD
MA
!A
play
er o
r tw
o to
be
nam
ed la
ter!
!D
on�t
For
get
Wi-
Fi,
Blue
toot
h, Z
ig-B
ee,
and
othe
rs!
The
next
rou
nd o
f te
chno
logy
war
s w
ill n
ot c
ome
from
w
ithi
n th
e tr
adit
iona
l com
mun
icat
ions
sec
tor
but
rath
er
from
the
�In
tern
et In
vade
rs�
!Th
e tr
ick
will
be
how
to
�bal
ance
� ex
isti
ng t
echn
olog
ies
and
serv
ices
wit
h th
e ne
ed t
o te
st a
nd d
eplo
y ne
w t
echn
olog
ies
!W
irel
ess
is p
art
scie
nce
and
part
bla
ck m
agic
!Re
al-w
orld
exp
erie
nce
and
know
ledg
e ar
e m
ore
impo
rtan
t th
an
polit
ics
and
the
prom
ise
of s
pect
rum
nir
vana
88 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Will
The
re B
e A
Cle
ar W
inne
r?W
ill T
here
Be
A C
lear
Win
ner?
!Th
e sh
ort
answ
er is
NO
!!
Wi-
Fi is
alr
eady
exp
erie
ncin
g in
terf
eren
ce is
sues
!W
iMax
is t
he n
ew k
id o
n th
e bl
ock
!W
iMax
may
hav
e a
prob
lem
wit
h up
take
bec
ause
it is
per
ceiv
ed a
s be
ing
from
�ou
tsid
e� t
he w
irel
ess
indu
stry
!IP
Wir
eles
s, F
lari
on,
Cle
arW
ire,
Can
opy,
and
mor
e ar
e be
ing
depl
oyed
!W
ide-
area
voi
ce n
etw
orks
are
upg
radi
ng d
ata
spee
ds!
EV-D
O t
o 4
Mbp
s!
WCD
MA
to 8
-10
Mbp
s (H
SDPA
)
!N
o on
e ca
n m
ake
mon
ey s
ervi
ng o
nly
note
book
use
rs!
!Th
e to
tal
avai
labl
e m
arke
t M
UST
incl
ude
mor
e!!
Hom
e an
d sm
all b
usin
ess
!M
obili
ty w
orke
rs a
nd c
onsu
mer
s !
Bet
they
won
�t c
arry
mul
tipl
e de
vice
s fo
r vo
ice
and
data
ser
vice
s
99 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
3G,
Wi-
Fi,
And
WiM
AX
3G,
Wi-
Fi,
And
WiM
AX
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
1010 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
3G N
etw
orks
3G N
etw
orks
!3G
Wid
e-Ar
ea N
etw
orks
!St
atus
Rep
ort
!10
2 op
erat
ors
wor
ldw
ide
!45
cou
ntri
es
!52
com
pani
es w
ith
501
devi
ces
!11
7 m
illio
n 3G
sub
scri
bers
wor
ldw
ide
!U
nite
d St
ates
!3G
Dat
a se
rvic
es b
y!
Veri
zon
Wir
eles
s (3
cit
ies,
maj
ors
by e
nd 2
005)
!Sp
rint
PC
S (0
Cit
ies,
maj
ors
by e
nd 2
005)
!AT
&T
Wir
eles
s (4
cit
ies,
2 m
ore
this
yea
r)!
Cin
gula
r (j
ust
rece
ived
bid
s)!
Cav
eat:
NO
T al
l sub
urbs
and
NO
rur
al a
reas
cov
ered
!Re
al d
ata
rate
s!
CD
MA2
000
1xEV
-DO
Rev
0:
300-
800
Kbps
!W
CD
MA
(tod
ay)
220-
330
Kbps
wit
h pe
aks
to 3
84!
Futu
re:
2-10
Mbp
s (E
V-D
O R
ev.
A an
d W
CD
MA
HSD
PA)
1111 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
3G O
ver
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
3G O
ver
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
!W
orld
wid
e de
ploy
men
t co
ntin
ues
!M
ost
syst
ems
met
ro-o
nly
!Fa
ll ba
ck t
o sl
ower
tec
hnol
ogie
s
!D
evic
es b
ecom
e m
ore
com
bine
d co
nsum
er d
evic
es!
Hig
her
reso
luti
on c
amer
a/ph
one,
MP3
pla
yer/
phon
e, m
edic
al
mon
itor
/pho
ne,
vide
o ca
mer
a/ph
one,
and
mor
e
!3G
and
Wi-
Fi m
akes
its
debu
t!
VoIP
, le
ast-
cost
rou
ting
, vo
ice
and
data
sim
ulta
neou
sly
!W
ill t
hese
bec
ome
mai
nstr
eam
dev
ices
?!
Com
peti
tors
incl
ude
in-b
uild
ing
WAN
, W
AN t
o D
SL/c
able
ex
tens
ions
, fi
ber
to h
ome
wit
h W
AN b
ackh
aul
!Vo
ice
cont
inue
s to
pay
the
fre
ight
�D
ata
serv
ices
�fa
ll� t
o th
e bo
ttom
line
: O
pera
tors
con
tinu
e to
mak
e m
oney
!
1212 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
Wi-
FiW
i-Fi
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
The
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
1313 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Com
eta
Shut
s D
own
Com
eta
Shut
s D
own
!Com
eta
is a
joi
nt v
entu
re f
orm
ed b
y In
tel V
entu
res,
IBM
, AT
&T
Long
lines
, Ap
axPa
rtne
rs,
and
3i t
o pr
ovid
e 20
,000
W
i-Fi
hot
spot
s a
year
. (D
ecem
ber
2002
)!
Wha
t I s
aid
at t
he t
ime:
Sin
ce n
o te
rres
tria
l net
wor
k ha
s ev
er m
ade
mon
ey o
ffer
ing
data
-onl
y se
rvic
es,
wha
t do
th
ese
folk
s kn
ow t
hat
the
rest
of
the
indu
stry
doe
s no
t?
!W
hat
happ
ened
: Bu
sine
ss m
odel
cha
nged
tw
ice,
bac
k pe
dalin
g, r
olle
d ou
t Se
attl
e as
a t
est
mar
ket,
fai
led
to
obta
in a
ddit
iona
l fun
ding
!If
Com
eta,
bac
ked
by t
hese
com
pani
es,
coul
d no
t m
ake
a go
of
the
�hot
spot
� bu
sine
ss,
how
are
the
oth
ers
goin
g to
fa
ir?
1414 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wi-
FI N
ext
2-3
Year
sW
i-FI
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
!W
i-FI
fol
ks c
onti
nue
to m
ake
it in
to a
wid
e-ar
ea p
lay
!In
terf
eren
ce is
sues
get
wor
se
!In
dust
ry c
onso
lidat
ion
!W
ISPs
go o
ut o
f bu
sine
ss in
dro
ves
!H
elpe
d al
ong
by W
iMAX
thr
eat
and
3G r
oll-
out
!Vo
IP c
omes
of
age
not
as e
asily
or
quic
kly
as is
bei
ng p
roje
cted
!W
i-Fi
get
s bu
ilt in
to e
very
thin
g!
Inte
rfer
ence
eve
n on
loc
al le
vel b
ecom
es a
pro
blem
!FC
C a
nd F
eds
still
bel
ieve
Wi-
Fi is
the
�ki
ller�
use
for
wir
eles
s an
d gi
ve W
i-Fi
com
mun
ity
som
e TV
spe
ctru
m!
Wi-
Fi in
dust
ry t
ries
to
�reg
ulat
e� u
nlic
ense
d sp
ectr
um!
Wi-
Fi e
nds
up a
s th
e la
st 1
00 f
eet,
jus
t as
it s
tart
ed!
VoIP
con
tinu
es t
o gr
ow b
ut n
ot a
s fa
st a
s pr
edic
ted!
1515 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wi-
Fi N
ext
2-3
Year
sW
i-Fi
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
!W
i-Fi
�H
otsp
ots�
incr
easi
ngly
off
erin
g �f
ree�
Inte
rnet
acc
ess
!I h
ave
not
paid
for
Wi-
Fi o
r w
ired
hig
h-sp
eed
Inte
rnet
ser
vice
in t
he p
ast
eigh
t m
onth
s!
Wi-
Fi a
nd w
ired
Inte
rnet
are
bec
omin
g �p
erks
�!
Mor
e co
ffee
sho
ps a
re o
ffer
ing
Wi-
Fi f
or f
ree
!G
ood
New
s: W
ide-
area
net
wor
ks a
re w
orki
ng t
o in
tegr
ate
Wi-
Fi a
nd
wid
e-ar
ea s
ervi
ces
into
a c
omm
on d
ata
offe
ring
!Se
curi
ty a
nd e
ase
of u
se (
too
man
y co
mpa
nies
for
sig
n-up
) hi
nder
ad
opti
on!
Inte
rfer
ence
is r
aisi
ng it
s ug
ly h
ead
!M
etro
�m
esh�
net
wor
ks a
re t
he c
urre
nt r
age
!W
ill t
hey
be r
epla
ced
by h
igh-
spee
d w
ide-
area
net
wor
ks?
!W
i-Fi
con
tinu
es t
o be
an
area
whe
re c
hip
and
devi
ce f
olks
mak
e m
oney
, no
t W
i-Fi
ope
rato
rs
1616 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WLA
N�s
Impa
ct O
n 3G
Wir
eles
s W
LAN
�s Im
pact
On
3G W
irel
ess
!So
me�
mob
ile p
rofe
ssio
nals
!M
ost
only
nee
d ac
cess
at
offi
ce,
hom
e, a
irpo
rt,
and
hote
l!
WLA
N p
ublic
net
wor
ks p
rovi
de c
onve
nien
ce!
Few
will
pay
�en
terp
rise
unl
ikel
y to
pay
!Fe
w w
ill p
ay f
or 3
G w
ide-
area
wir
eles
s!
Min
or�
sale
s pr
ofes
sion
als
!If
clie
nt l
ocat
ion
acce
ss is
nee
ded,
the
n W
AN n
eede
d!
Clie
nt e
nter
pris
es n
ot li
kely
to
supp
ort
visi
tors
!N
one�
cons
umer
s!
WLA
N h
otsp
ot c
over
age
is p
rim
arily
at
busi
ness
loca
tion
s!
Unl
ikel
y to
pay
!N
one�
serv
ice,
del
iver
y, f
leet
man
agem
ent
!La
rge
geog
raph
ical
cov
erag
e is
req
uire
d!
WLA
N c
an b
e an
add
ed v
alue
for
WAN
ope
rato
rs!
T-M
obile
has
inte
grat
ed b
illin
g pl
ans
1717 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
WiM
AX
Nex
t 2-
3 Ye
ars
!W
iMAX
con
tinu
es t
o m
ake
big
nois
e !
Is it
bei
ng o
ver
hype
d? (
Wha
t�s
new
?)
!W
hen
will
it r
eally
be
read
y fo
r pr
ime
tim
e?!
All t
echn
olog
ies
take
long
er t
o co
me
to m
arke
t th
an p
ropo
nent
s be
lieve
th
ey w
ill
!Is
the
re r
eally
an
econ
omic
mod
el ?
!W
iMAX
as
broa
dban
d to
sta
tic
loca
tion
s!
Will
WiM
AX b
e th
e ba
ckha
ul f
or W
i-Fi
?!
Will
WiM
AX b
e ab
le t
o co
mpe
te w
ith
DSL
and
cab
le w
here
inst
alle
d?!
Will
WiM
AX b
e ab
le t
o co
mpe
te in
rur
al A
mer
ica?
!W
hen
WiM
AX g
oes
mob
ile!
Who
will
use
it?
!W
ill it
incl
ude
VoIP
ser
vice
s?!
Can
it c
ompe
te f
or v
oice
and
dat
a se
rvic
es w
ith
5 ex
isti
ng w
irel
ess
oper
ator
s?
1818 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX:
Ch
angi
ng T
he L
aws
Of
Phys
ics?
WiM
AX:
Ch
angi
ng T
he L
aws
Of
Phys
ics?
!Th
e 80
2.16
sta
ndar
d fo
r 2-
11 G
Hz
is a
wir
eles
s m
etro
polit
an-a
rea
netw
ork
(wir
eles
s M
AN)
tech
nolo
gy t
hat
prov
ides
bro
adba
nd w
irel
ess
conn
ecti
vity
to
fixe
d, p
orta
ble
and
nom
adic
use
rs.
The
ulti
mat
e co
mpl
emen
t to
Wi-
Fi,
the
WiM
AX w
irel
ess
MAN
sta
ndar
d ca
n be
use
d to
bac
khau
l 802
.11
hots
pots
and
WLA
Ns
to t
he In
tern
et,
prov
ide
cam
pus
conn
ecti
vity
, an
d en
able
a w
irel
ess
alte
rnat
ive
to c
able
and
D
SL f
or la
st-m
ile b
road
band
acc
ess.
It p
rovi
des
up t
o 50
kilo
met
ers
of s
ervi
ce a
rea
rang
e, a
llow
s us
ers
to o
btai
n br
oadb
and
conn
ecti
vity
w
itho
ut n
eedi
ng d
irec
t lin
e of
sig
ht w
ith
the
base
sta
tion
, an
d pr
ovid
es t
otal
dat
a ra
tes
of u
p to
280
Mbp
s pe
r ba
se s
tati
on -
a su
ffic
ient
am
ount
of
band
wid
th t
o si
mul
tane
ousl
y su
ppor
t hu
ndre
ds
of b
usin
esse
s w
ith
T1/E
1-ty
pe c
onne
ctiv
ity
and
thou
sand
s of
hom
es
wit
h D
SL-t
ype
conn
ecti
vity
wit
h a
sing
le b
ase
stat
ion.
1919 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
RF P
ropa
gati
on Is
Onl
y Pa
rt
Scie
nce!
RF P
ropa
gati
on Is
Onl
y Pa
rt
Scie
nce!
2020 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX:
Reg
ulat
ory
Wor
king
Gro
up!
WiM
AX:
Reg
ulat
ory
Wor
king
Gro
up!
!G
oal i
s to
�ha
rmon
ize�
WiM
AX s
pect
rum
wor
ldw
ide
!Bo
th li
cens
ed a
nd l
icen
se-e
xem
pt
!Sp
ectr
um a
lloca
tion
s so
ught
!Li
cens
e-Ex
empt
: 5
GH
z !
Lice
nsed
: 3.
5 G
Hz
!Li
cens
ed 2
.5 G
Hz
!H
owev
er,
ther
e is
now
an
�ass
ault
� on
the
700
-MH
z TV
spe
ctru
m
!G
ood
luck
, fo
lks!
2121 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX�
sFu
ture
CO
ULD
Be
Brig
ht!
WiM
AX�
sFu
ture
CO
ULD
Be
Brig
ht!
!Fi
rst
prov
e th
e bu
sine
ss m
odel
for
wir
eles
s br
oadb
and
!Th
ere
is n
o m
arke
t re
sear
ch t
hat
supp
orts
a s
olid
bus
ines
s m
odel
for
broa
dban
d w
irel
ess
toda
y!
Spre
adsh
eet
proj
ecti
ons
and
�gut
fee
l� e
cono
mic
s do
n�t
guar
ante
e th
at W
iMAX
will
be
a fi
nanc
ially
via
ble
tech
nolo
gy
!D
eplo
y w
ith
QO
S, s
eam
less
sec
urit
y, a
nd e
ase
of s
et-u
p an
d us
e!
Do
not
over
pro
mis
e an
d un
der
deliv
er!
DO
NO
T sh
ip p
rodu
cts
unti
l th
ey h
ave
been
ext
ensi
vely
fi
eld
test
ed!
Wor
k w
ith
wir
eles
s pr
ovid
ers
and
Wi-
Fi c
omm
unit
y, n
ot in
co
mpe
titi
on w
ith
them
2222 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
Wir
eles
sW
irel
ess
Will
It B
ecom
e a
Seri
ous
Fact
or f
or t
he
Last
Mile
?W
ill It
Bec
ome
a Se
riou
s Fa
ctor
for
the
La
st M
ile?
2323 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Last
Mile
Tod
ayLa
st M
ile T
oday
!Cop
per
to t
he h
ome/
offi
ce!
Cab
le t
o th
e ho
me
(and
now
off
ice)
!Fi
ber
to t
he c
urb
(in
som
e ar
eas)
!Br
oadb
and
over
Pow
er L
ines
(BP
L)!
Up
and
runn
ing
in s
ome
area
s!
The
FCC
�s la
test
�go
od-g
uy t
echn
olog
y�
!W
irel
ess
!W
i-Fi
!
MM
DS
wit
h va
riou
s te
chno
logi
es!
Can
opy
!W
ill W
iMAX
suc
ceed
in t
his
spac
e?
2424 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX:
The
Nex
t La
st M
ile?
WiM
AX:
The
Nex
t La
st M
ile?
!W
hat
is t
he b
usin
ess
mod
el w
here
the
re is
DSL
/cab
le?
!W
hat
can
you
char
ge f
or h
igh-
spee
d da
ta s
ervi
ces?
!D
SL p
rici
ng is
com
ing
dow
n ra
pidl
y!
Rece
nt V
eriz
on p
rici
ng o
f $2
6.95
per
mon
th!
Cab
le p
rici
ng c
omin
g do
wn
as w
ell
!M
onet
is s
uspe
ndin
g it
s EV
-DO
ser
vice
in s
mal
l co
mm
unit
ies
!Co
uld
not
com
plet
e w
ith
DSL
and
cab
le s
ervi
ces
!Sp
rint
dis
cont
inue
d po
int-
to-m
ulti
poin
t se
rvic
es!
How
ever
, N
exte
l see
ms
to b
e do
ing
wel
l wit
h it
s Fl
ario
n of
feri
ng in
Nor
th C
arol
ina
but�
!It
s of
feri
ng is
NO
T a
stan
dalo
ne b
usin
ess
2525 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
WiM
AX
For
The
Last
Mile
?W
iMA
X Fo
r Th
e La
st M
ile?
!Cov
erag
e is
a B
IG is
sue,
esp
ecia
lly in
2 t
o 11
-GH
z ba
nd!
Requ
ires
no
truc
k ro
lls b
ut c
usto
mer
sup
port
will
be
high
fo
r a
whi
le!
Can
WiM
AX p
rovi
de b
ette
r Q
ualit
y of
Ser
vice
tha
n ca
ble
and
DSL
ser
vice
s?!
Syst
em is
sti
ll sh
ared
ban
dwid
th!
How
man
y us
ers
per
site
can
WiM
AX t
ruly
sup
port
?!
Enou
gh t
o m
ake
a pr
ofit
?
!Cit
ies
and
coun
ties
don
�t w
ant
mor
e to
wer
s!
Cel
l sit
es t
ake
up t
o 3
year
s to
pla
n an
d in
stal
l in
man
y ar
eas
!C
o-lo
cati
on c
an b
e ex
pens
ive
!Is
the
re e
noug
h m
oney
in n
on-D
SL/c
able
are
as?
2626 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
The
Wir
eles
s La
st M
ileTh
e W
irel
ess
Last
Mile
!So
far
, no
bus
ines
s ca
se h
as b
een
prov
en!
Exis
ting
pla
yers
are
sti
ll �i
nves
ting
� in
the
wir
eles
s la
st m
ile
!M
any
play
ers
are
�bet
ting
the
far
m�
on la
st m
ile w
irel
ess
!If
the
FCC
and
oth
ers
allo
cate
spe
ctru
m in
the
700
-MH
z TV
ban
d, it
cou
ld c
hang
e ev
eryt
hing
!70
0-M
Hz
cove
rage
is M
UC
H b
ette
r th
an c
over
age
at 2
GH
z an
d ab
ove
!N
umbe
r of
sit
es is
red
uced
dra
mat
ical
ly!
Tota
l sys
tem
cos
t al
so r
educ
ed
!A
lot
of �
ifs�
for
all
of t
he m
oney
tha
t is
bei
ng t
hrow
n at
w
irel
ess
last
mile
2727 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Freq
uenc
y (M
Hz)
Cell
Radi
us
(km
)Ce
ll Ar
ea
(km
2 )Re
lati
ve
Cell
Coun
t
450
48.9
7521
1
850
29.4
2712
2.8
950
26.9
2269
3.3
1800
14.0
618
12.2
1900
13.3
553
13.6
Sour
ce: Q
ualco
mm IT
U 8/F
Sub
miss
ion, J
une 1
1, 20
01, �
COVE
RAGE
COM
PARI
SON
OF IM
T-20
00 S
YSTE
MS A
T VA
RIOU
S FR
EQUE
NCY
RANG
ES, IN
CLUD
ING
450 M
HZ�
Mor
e Ce
ll Si
tes
Requ
ired
At
Hig
her
Freq
uenc
ies
Mor
e Ce
ll Si
tes
Requ
ired
At
Hig
her
Freq
uenc
ies
Up to
5 Tim
es as
ma
ny si
tes
2828 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
Wir
eles
s Vo
ice
Ove
r IP
(Vo
IP)
Wir
eles
s Vo
ice
Ove
r IP
(Vo
IP)
Will
It T
ake
Busi
ness
fro
m W
ide-
Are
a W
irel
ess
Net
wor
k O
pera
tors
?W
ill It
Tak
e Bu
sine
ss f
rom
Wid
e-A
rea
Wir
eles
s N
etw
ork
Ope
rato
rs?
2929 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wir
eles
s V
oIP:
Ser
ious
Com
peti
tor?
Wir
eles
s V
oIP:
Ser
ious
Com
peti
tor?
!Vo
IP-o
nly
phon
es a
re a
lrea
dy o
n th
e m
arke
t!
Cisc
o, S
ymbo
l, n
o m
ajor
ven
dors
!Sl
ow s
ales
, sl
ow a
dopt
ion
!Fo
r in
-com
pany
com
mun
icat
ions
, do
we
real
ly w
ant
a ph
one
in
mee
ting
s, w
alki
ng t
he h
alls
?
!Th
e �I
nter
net
is f
ree�
fol
ks s
eem
to
belie
ve t
hat
a la
rge
num
ber
of u
s w
ill c
arry
and
use
Wi-
Fi V
oIP
phon
es!
Doe
s Vo
IP h
ave
a st
rong
fut
ure?
3030 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
VoIP
Pho
nes
And
Alt
erna
tive
sVo
IP P
hone
s A
nd A
lter
nati
ves
!M
otor
ola
and
othe
rs a
re b
uild
ing
wid
e-ar
ea/W
i-Fi
VoIP
ph
ones
!Bi
g pu
sh is
for
in-h
ome
exte
nded
cov
erag
e of
wid
e-ar
ea
netw
orks
!Ar
e th
ese
VoIP
pho
nes
or a
re t
hey
tunn
elin
g G
SM a
nd C
DM
A ov
er W
i-Fi
con
nect
ions
?!
That
is w
hat
the
Unl
icen
sed
Mob
ile
Acce
ss (
UM
A)
orga
niza
tion
is
prom
otin
g!
Cla
ims
to h
ave
5 m
ajor
wir
eles
s ca
rrie
rs,
5 ha
ndse
t, a
nd 5
In
fras
truc
ture
com
pani
es a
s m
embe
rs
!Fu
ture
for
VoI
P w
irel
ess
phon
es is
mur
ky!
How
ever
, w
irel
ess
oper
ator
s w
ith
data
ser
vice
s ar
e ve
ry in
tere
sted
in
VoI
P ph
ones
for
the
mai
nstr
eam
!Ag
ain:
Will
you
tru
st y
our
mos
t va
luab
le c
omm
unic
atio
ns t
o th
e In
tern
et a
s a
tran
spor
t?
3131 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
Mor
e Sp
ectr
um?
Mor
e Sp
ectr
um?
Is M
ore
Spec
trum
Nee
ded
for
Unl
icen
sed
Wir
eles
s Se
rvic
es?
Is M
ore
Spec
trum
Nee
ded
for
Unl
icen
sed
Wir
eles
s Se
rvic
es?
3232 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Spec
trum
: Pl
enti
ful O
r Sc
arce
?Sp
ectr
um:
Plen
tifu
l Or
Scar
ce?
!Th
e w
irel
ess
com
mun
ity
says
spe
ctru
m is
sca
rce
!It
is a
fin
ite
reso
urce
!
We
need
to
use
wha
t w
e ha
ve m
ore
effi
cien
tly
!An
d w
e ne
ed t
o pr
otec
t in
cum
bent
s
!Th
e In
tern
et c
omm
unit
y sa
ys it
is p
lent
iful
!So
ftw
are-
defi
ned
radi
os a
nd o
ther
tec
hnol
ogie
s w
ill s
uppo
rt
mul
tipl
e sy
stem
s in
the
sam
e po
rtio
n of
the
spe
ctru
m a
nd
prev
ent
inte
rfer
ence
!Cla
ims
that
the
�w
irel
ess
com
mun
ity�
has
mis
man
aged
the
sp
ectr
um o
ver
the
year
s an
d is
too
pro
tect
ive
!So
me
wan
t al
l spe
ctru
m d
ereg
ulat
ed
!Th
e FC
C a
ppea
rs t
o be
list
enin
g to
the
clo
ut b
ehin
d th
e In
tern
et c
omm
unit
y, n
ot t
he w
irel
ess
com
mun
ity
!H
ow d
o yo
u sp
ell d
isas
ter?
3333 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Spec
trum
: W
ho Is
Rig
ht?
Spec
trum
: W
ho Is
Rig
ht?
!N
o on
e kn
ows
the
answ
er y
et!
!BU
T�!
We
mus
t be
car
eful
as
we
expl
ore
the
opti
ons
!N
exte
l/Pu
blic
Saf
ety
inte
rfer
ence
issu
e ha
s be
en g
oing
on
for
ye
ars
and
will
tak
e ab
out
4 m
ore
year
s to
be
reso
lved
!Th
e FC
C is
fin
ding
tha
t BP
L is
inte
rfer
ing
wit
h ex
isti
ng r
adio
sy
stem
s as
was
pre
dict
ed b
y th
e w
irel
ess
indu
stry
!W
e ne
ed a
spe
ctru
m p
olic
y an
d ov
eral
l pla
n!
We
need
to
shar
e pu
blic
and
gov
ernm
ent
spec
trum
allo
cati
ons
!W
e ne
ed t
o se
t as
ide
spec
trum
for
new
tec
hnol
ogie
s!
And
we
need
to
prot
ect
exis
ting
use
rs
!Th
ere
are
way
s to
mak
e th
is w
ork
for
ever
yone
!
3434 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Unl
icen
sed
Spec
trum
?U
nlic
ense
d Sp
ectr
um?
!D
o w
e ne
ed m
ore?
!D
o w
e ne
ed b
ette
r �m
anag
emen
t�?
!H
ow d
o yo
u m
anag
e un
licen
sed
spec
trum
?!
San
Fran
cisc
o W
i-Fi
WIS
Psar
e tr
ying
!Bu
t w
hat
abou
t th
e ne
xt g
uy?
!W
itho
ut r
egis
trat
ion
of s
yste
ms,
how
do
you
find
tho
se t
hat
are
inte
rfer
ing
and
noti
fy t
hem
? W
hy b
othe
r?!
Will
mor
e un
licen
sed
spec
trum
sol
ve t
he in
terf
eren
ce is
sues
?!
My
answ
er is
a r
edou
ndin
g N
O!
Exam
ple:
the
Cit
izen
Ban
d is
an
FCC
disa
ster
!Be
caus
e pe
ople
are
sel
fish
and
gre
edy
!H
ow c
an y
ou �
regu
late
� th
e un
regu
late
d?!
Com
prom
ise
is p
ossi
ble
!Co
nsid
er a
�su
perv
ised
� am
ount
of
spec
trum
wit
h fr
eque
ncy
coor
dina
tion
and
a �
perm
it�
The
Ans
wer
is N
OT
mor
e of
the
sam
e! W
e ne
ed n
ew id
eas.
3535 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
My
Pred
icti
ons
My
Pred
icti
ons
For
The
Wir
eles
s In
dust
ryFo
r Th
e W
irel
ess
Indu
stry
3636 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
The
FCC
Is M
esm
eriz
ed!
The
FCC
Is M
esm
eriz
ed!
!Pl
ayin
g po
litic
s, N
OT
engi
neer
ing
supe
rvis
ion
!�P
ro�
broa
dban
d ov
er p
ower
line
s (B
PL)
!A
pote
ntia
lly d
isru
ptiv
e te
chno
logy
!O
n an
unl
icen
sed
spec
trum
kic
k, e
ven
to t
he p
oint
of
givi
ng a
way
spe
ctru
m a
lrea
dy in
use
(TV
cha
nnel
s) f
or
unlic
ense
d us
e BE
FORE
it a
ddre
sses
or
fixe
s ex
isti
ng
inte
rfer
ence
issu
es!
At t
he F
CC it
is p
olit
ics
as n
ever
bef
ore.
Dam
n th
e te
chno
logy
ass
essm
ents
. W
hat
is g
ood
for
the
part
y is
go
od f
or t
he F
CC!
!W
atch
thi
s sp
ace
clos
ely
for
mor
e ex
ampl
es o
f th
is!
3737 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
New
Spe
ctru
m A
ucti
ons
New
Spe
ctru
m A
ucti
ons
!In
the
U.S
. th
ere
will
be
�new
� w
irel
ess
spec
trum
au
ctio
ned
in t
he n
ear
futu
re!
This
spe
ctru
m w
ill n
ot b
e av
aila
ble
for
use
for
a nu
mbe
r of
ye
ars
!H
owev
er,
the
incu
mbe
nt w
irel
ess
com
pani
es w
ill n
ot b
e al
one
at t
he b
idde
rs�
tabl
e!
AOL,
Mic
roso
ft,
Inte
l, a
nd o
ther
s m
ay m
ake
a pl
ay f
or t
his
spec
trum
3838 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Wir
eles
s D
evic
esW
irel
ess
Dev
ices
!As
chi
pset
s m
ake
wir
eles
s de
vice
s ea
sier
to
build
, th
ere
will
be
a sh
ift
from
tra
diti
onal
dev
ice
vend
ors
(Nok
ia,
Mot
orol
a, S
ony-
Eric
sson
)!
The
new
pla
yers
will
be
Dis
ney,
MTV
, AO
L, e
ven
Yaho
o!
Affi
nity
bra
ndin
g of
ser
vice
s an
d de
vice
s w
ill b
ecom
e po
pula
r ov
er t
he
next
few
yea
rs
!W
irel
ess
phon
es w
ill b
ecom
e in
crea
sing
ly in
tegr
ated
wit
h co
nsum
er
prod
ucts
suc
h as
cam
eras
, m
edia
pla
yers
, ga
me
mac
hine
s!
Mul
ti-n
etw
ork
chip
s w
ill �
fix�
the
tec
hnol
ogy
prob
lem
s!
Mul
ti-m
ode
(GSM
/CD
MA/
WCD
MA)
dev
ices
will
bec
ome
the
norm
!So
ftw
are-
defi
ned
radi
os a
nd o
ther
new
dev
ices
will
tak
e lo
nger
to
com
e to
mar
ket
than
pre
dict
ed b
y th
ose
who
are
dev
elop
ing
them
!N
ear
term
: Th
e pr
ice
of w
irel
ess
devi
ces
will
mov
e sl
owly
dow
nwar
d.
The
sam
e m
oney
will
buy
mor
e fe
atur
es a
nd f
unct
ions
.
3939 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Smar
tpho
nes,
PD
As,
Not
eboo
ksSm
artp
hone
s, P
DA
s, N
oteb
ooks
!Sm
artp
hone
s an
d w
irel
ess
PDAs
will
acc
ount
for
no
mor
e th
an 2
0% o
f th
e w
orld
mar
ket
!St
anda
rd p
hone
s w
ill b
ecom
e �s
mar
ter�
!
Ther
e w
ill b
e no
win
ner
in t
he o
pera
ting
sys
tem
war
s!
Not
eboo
k co
mpu
ters
will
com
e eq
uipp
ed w
ith
mor
e �f
lavo
rs�
of R
F bu
ilt in
And�
!M
ost
of t
he m
arke
t in
�po
orer
� co
untr
ies
will
con
tinu
e to
be
low
-end
pho
nes
4040 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Indu
stry
Con
solid
atio
nIn
dust
ry C
onso
lidat
ion
!Th
ere
will
con
tinu
e to
be
indu
stry
con
solid
atio
n!
The
Cin
gula
r/AT
&T
mer
ger
is o
nly
the
firs
t!
Look
for
ope
rato
rs w
ho n
eed
mor
e sp
ectr
um a
nd t
hose
who
hav
e it
to
mer
ge�
spec
trum
is t
he c
urre
ncy
of w
irel
ess
succ
ess
!Th
ose
who
bel
ieve
tha
t sp
ectr
um is
sues
will
go
away
bec
ause
of
new
tec
hnol
ogie
s th
at a
re o
n th
e ho
rizo
n ar
e ju
st p
lain
wro
ng!
!Co
mpa
nies
to
wat
ch:
Veri
zon/
Spri
nt P
CS!
Veri
zon
coul
d bu
y al
l of
Spri
nt,
acqu
ire
LD a
nd w
irel
ess
spec
trum
at
the
sam
e ti
me
!N
exte
l cou
ld b
e in
spe
ctru
m t
roub
le if
it d
oesn
�t s
ettl
e th
e in
terf
eren
ce is
sue
4141 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
New
Tec
hnol
ogie
sN
ew T
echn
olog
ies
!Re
peat
ing
mys
elf
!N
ew t
echn
olog
ies
take
long
er t
o be
com
mer
cial
ized
tha
n an
yone
w
orki
ng o
n th
em b
elie
ves
!Th
ere
can
be a
hug
e di
ffer
ence
bet
wee
n w
hat
wor
ks in
the
lab
and
wha
t w
orks
in t
he r
eal
wor
ld!
Mos
t te
chno
logy
ad
vanc
es a
re in
crem
enta
l in
natu
re!
Look
for
Inte
l to
�tak
e th
e le
ad�
for
WiM
ax!
It w
ants
and
nee
ds a
wir
eles
s te
chno
logy
tha
t it
can
�dr
ive�
in
to t
he m
arke
t!
Unf
ortu
nate
ly,
som
e ba
d de
cisi
ons
will
be
mad
e by
pol
itic
ians
w
ho d
o no
t un
ders
tand
wir
eles
s te
chno
logi
es a
nd b
elie
ve w
hat
they
are
bei
ng t
old
by o
ther
s (n
on-t
echn
olog
y fo
lks)
!Th
ere
are
way
s to
pro
tect
the
�ri
ghts
� of
exi
stin
g w
irel
ess
oper
ator
s an
d st
ill p
rovi
de p
lent
y of
opp
ortu
nity
for
new
te
chno
logi
es t
o be
dev
elop
ed,
test
ed,
and
prov
en!
4242 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
Fina
l Com
men
tsFi
nal C
omm
ents
!Is
the
Inte
rnet
REA
LLY
a m
issi
on-c
riti
cal n
etw
ork?
!W
ould
you
, w
ill y
ou,
trus
t yo
ur m
ost
impo
rtan
t vo
ice
and
data
co
mm
unic
atio
ns t
o th
is n
etw
ork?
!Is
VoI
P RE
ALLY
rea
dy f
or p
rim
e ti
me?
!Th
e sp
ectr
um r
ush
is o
n!
The
Pres
iden
t�s
Spec
trum
Man
agem
ent
task
forc
e dr
oppe
d th
e ba
ll!
The
FCC
and
bot
h ca
ndid
ates
are
mes
mer
ized
by
Wi-
Fi a
nd w
ill
prob
ably
allo
cate
too
muc
h ne
w �
unlic
ense
d� s
pect
rum
!SD
R an
d ot
her
soft
war
e �a
nsw
ers�
to
spec
trum
pro
blem
s w
ill N
OT
solv
e al
l of
the
prob
lem
s!
Thos
e w
ho t
hink
the
y w
ill h
ave
not
wor
ked
in t
he �
real
RF�
wor
ld
!Ru
shin
g fo
rwar
d ca
n an
d w
ill g
et u
s in
tro
uble
!Be
tter
to
proc
eed
wit
h ca
utio
n
4343 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
CONF
IDEN
TIAL
The I
nfor
matio
n pro
vided
her
ein is
conf
identi
al; th
erefo
re, r
eade
r agr
ees
not t
o disc
lose
it with
out t
he ex
pres
s writt
en p
ermi
ssion
.
And o
ne m
ore t
hing!
4444 © 20
04 O
utloo
k 4M
obilit
y
For
Sale
:Fo
r Sa
le: ww
w.pin
ecre
stcom
m.co
m
And:
www.
Outlo
ok.co
m!
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