Sensitivity Auditing Andrea Saltelli Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (SVT) - University of Bergen (UIB) Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) - Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB) ROME, November 10-11 2015 CHALLENGES OF BIG DATA FOR ECONOMIC MODELING AND MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FROM EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY AUDITING AND PHYSICS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG) Sapienza University of Rome, Aula Magna, Via Ariosto, 25 [email protected]
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Sensitivity Auditing
Andrea Saltelli Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the
Humanities (SVT) - University of Bergen (UIB)
Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) -Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB)
ROME, November 10-11 2015CHALLENGES OF BIG DATA FOR ECONOMIC MODELING
AND MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FROM EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY AUDITING AND
PHYSICS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMSDepartment of Computer, Control and Management
Engineering Antonio Ruberti (DIAG)Sapienza University of Rome, Aula Magna, Via Ariosto, 25
Winner, L., 1986. The Whale and the Reactor: a Search for Limits in an Age of High Technology. The
University of Chicago Press, 1989 edition.
Langdon Winner
Frames
• Contrary to the popular belief that climate sceptics don’t
know about climate science Dan Kahan (2014) has
observed that the more a person is informed about
climate science, the more he or she is likely to be polarized
on the issue in either direction.
Frames
• Contrary to the popular belief that a GMO-averse
person is a risk- or technology-averse individual, an
important EC study (Marris, 2001) has shown that
GMO aversion is linked to frames where risk plays a
very minimal role (and alimentary risk plays no role at
all).
Frames
• The expression ‘tax relief ’ is apparently innocuous but it
suggests that tax is a burden, as opposed to what pays
for road, hospitals, education and other infrastructures
of modern life (Lakoff, 2004).
Frames
• Published road accident statistics record the conditions
of the driver as to alcohol or drug use but not the make
and year of the car or its safety features (Gusfield,
1981).
Gusfield, J. (1981). The Culture of Public Problems. Drinking-Driving and the Symbolic Order. The University of
Chicago Press.
The issue of frames. How do we perceive the world. Socially constructed ignorance etc.
Lakoff, G., 2010, Why it Matters How We Frame the Environment, Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture, 4:1, 70-81.
Lakoff, G., 2004-2014, Don’t think of an elephant: know your values and frame the debate, Chelsea Green Publishing.
For a summary see http://www.andreasaltelli.eu/file/repository/Hypocognition_Etc.pdf
Evidence based policy
George Lakoff
Questions about GMO deemed relevant by citizens (Marris, 2001)
• Why do we need GMOs? What are the benefits?• Who will benefit from their use?• Who decided that they should be developed and how?• Why were we not better informed about their use in our
food, before their arrival on the market? • Why are we not given an effective choice about whether
or not to buy and consume these products?• Do regulatory authorities have sufficient powers and
resources to effectively counter-balance large companies who wish to develop these products?
Marris, C., Wynne, B., Simmons P., and Weldon, S. 2001. Final Report of the PABE research project funded by the Commission of EuropeanCommunities, Contract number: FAIR CT98-3844 (DG12 - SSMI), December 2001.
Frames; GMO presented as a food scare.
“Montpelier is America’s only McDonald’s-free state capital. A fitting place, then, for a law designed to satisfy the unfounded fears of foodies […] genetically modified crops, declared safe by the scientific establishment, but reviled as Frankenfoods by the Subarus-and-sandals set”, (The Economist, 2014).
The Economist, Vermont v science, The little state that could kneecap the biotech industry, May 10th 2014
Frames and narratives
For Akerlof and Shiller - against
what the ‘invisible hand’ would
contend - economic actors have no
choice but to exploit frames to
‘phish’ people into practices which
benefit the actors not the subject
phished.
George Akerlof
Robert R. Shiller
On the persistence of narratives
“If is difficult to get a man to
understand something when his
salary depends upon his not
understanding it”
Upton Sinclair
RULE SEVEN: Explore diligently the space of the
assumptions
How to shake coupled ladders How coupled ladders are shaken