SEGWAY – A Failed Innovation Cynthia V. Anderson EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory & Technology Summer, 2014 Webster University [email protected]Segway is a battery-powered self-balancing two-wheeled scooter priced way too high to catch on & has never found its way into the mainstream. Thesis: Segway® as an innovation failed to enter the mainstream because it could not live up to the hype, too expensive and did not move past an invention to an innovation process as Rogers theory of innovation describes.
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Anderson, c.v. summer 2014 innovation final project
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STING, RUSSLE CROWE ON THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO RIDING SEGWAYS APR 9, 2002
Russel Crowe and Sting (aka Gordon Sumner) are shown the art of using a Segway HT by inventor Dean Kamen on the Jay Leno show (Buddy TV, n.d.).
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POPULAR SCIENCE MAGAZINE'S "THE BEST OF WHAT'S NEW AWARD” NOVEMBER 2002 ISSUE
Segway Model PT awarded in the “General Technology” category
(Popular Science, 2002)
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CHARACTERISTICS
Segway Innovation Adoption determinant -Overreaching behavior change required to adopt
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Innovation Characteristics
All Adoption Determinants
Overreaching behavior change
required to adopt
Relative Advantages Proven Wrong
◦ 5 gyroscopes for self balancing
◦ Used by the disabled to enhance mobility
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Innovation Characteristics
RELATIVE ADVANTAGE: The degree to which it is perceived to be
better than what it supersedes (Stand-up
Scooters).
The underlying principle is that the greater
the perceived relative advantage of an
innovation, the more rapid its rate of adoption
(Rogers, 2003, p. 229).
Electric, with 5 gyroscopes for
self balancing
Travel all terrain swiftly
without pollution
Speed and direction controlled
by user
Customizable to fulfill a wide-
range of activities
Used by the disabled to
enhance mobility
20Anderson, Cynthia
(Segway Inc., 2014) (Heilemann, 2001)
U.S. PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH FALLS OFF A SEGWAY
Soon after Bush's tumble in 2003 all of the models on the market were recalled because of a battery issue that caused riders to fall off when the battery ran low. (Asher, 2010)
CONNECTICUT MAN AWARDED $10 MILLION FOR HEAD INJURY HE SUSTAINED IN A 2009 SEGWAY ACCIDENT (NBC CONNECTICUT 2011)
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NEW SEGWAY INC. OWNER JIMI HESELDEN, 62, DROVE HIS TWO-WHEELED SCOOTER OFF A CLIFF AT HIS ESTATE IN ENGLAND FALLING TO HIS DEATH RIDING A SEGWAY ON HIS ESTATE (BROOKE, 2010)
Observability: the degree to which the results of an innovation
are visible to peers and personal networks creating either
positive or negative reactions (Rogers, 2003, p. 258).
Innovation was not present to
observe
Communication among
peers & personal networks
did not occur = negative
reactions.
Individuals never saw the
results of an innovation =
less likely to adopt.
Public Reaction: Look
smug/Look like a dork/don’t
want to be seen riding them;
“Company itself was a kind of
Segway” (Graham, 2009)
What the General Public
Did See
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Implementation when an individual/decision making
unit puts idea into use (Rogers, 2003 p. 169).
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“Segways are a great way to tour St. Louis as you can
accomplish much more sightseeing in less time than walking
tours. And, unlike bus tours, you can still get close enough to
be part of the scenery!” (Glide St. Louis Tours)
Confirmation: Seeks reinforcement of a decision already
made; may reverse previous decision if exposed to
conflicting messages (Rogers, p. 169)
Disney rejects Segway use in theme parks- not
approved by FDA as a medical device (Burgin,
2013).Reinvention
Segway continues to
produce transportation
gliders for the following
target markets:
Gliders
Commuters
Hunters (Shown)
Adventurers
Anderson, Cynthia 30
(Segway Inc., 2014)
THE SOCIAL SYSTEM
Segway
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Rogers Defines The Social
System“Social determinism or the social
construction of technology, argues that
technology is shaped by social
factors.”
“Technology is a product of society,
and is influenced by the norms and
values of the social system.”
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(Rogers, 2003, p. 148)
EQUALITY VS. INEQUALITY
When a system’s structure is already very unequal, the consequences of an innovation (especially if it is a relatively high-cost innovation) will lead to an even greater inequality in the form of wider socioeconomic gap (Rogers 2003, P. 471)
1. “Ups have greater access to information that creates awareness ~ Tech & business journals discussion on the introduction of the Segway is not mainstream’s (average consumer)source for awareness
2. Have greater access to innovation-evaluation information from peers ~ Evaluations of the Segways were made from couches watching television personalities demonstrate the product
3. “Ups” possess greater slack resources for adopting innovations than do “downs” ~ At a price of 5 thousand for a motorized scooter, the mainstream public disposable income did not meet the need
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Mass Media Channels As A Social System
Cartoonist continue to poke fun
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Images is copyright protected. The copyright owner reserves all rights.
(Cartoonist Group, 2005)
Anderson, Cynthia
COST ~PROJECTED SALES & PRICE VS. REALITY
Segway’s
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High Price Limited Applicability & Legal
Issues
Projected Sales: 50,000 – 100,000 1st year
Reality Sales: 6,000 in the first 21 months with only aditional10,000 units through 2004
Projected Price point: $2000 Reality: $4000
Kamen interview statement about price differentiation: “I can’t tell you why we didn’t hit the target” (Dumaine, 2013)
Analyst attribute poor sales to
◦ High price
◦ Limited applicability
◦ Legal issues (illegal for street or side walk use in many cities. (Schweber, 2005)
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TIMELINE
Segway’s
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“I can tell you this much,
everything I’ve done so
far in my life will be
insignificant if this project
is successful.” ~ Dean
Kamen interview March
7, 1994 (McLean, 2001)
Segway Timeline March 1994 March 7th, 1994
Rumblings of a
mysterious project
Timeline
Segway woories the Federal Government will designate “It” as a Motor Vehicle
July 1999
Segway Founded
R&D to focus on creating
compact, maneuverable
devices to operate on
pedestrian sidewalks &
pathways
March 2001 2001
best-known backer,
venture capitalist John
Doerr forcast 50 – 100 Thousand in the 1st year of sales
Timeline
Segway woories the Federal Government will designate “It” as a Motor Vehicle
January 2001
The first, vague details of
Kamen's supersecret
project - codenamed
"Ginger," aka "IT" were
leaked to the press in
January 2001. Because
Kamen wasn't ready to
talk about his invention,
people guessed
March 2001 2001
best-known backer,
venture capitalist John
Doerr forcast 50 – 100 Thousand in the 1st year of sales
Timeline
President G. Miller Resigns; Former President, Subaru America
August 2001
CPSC determines
Segway is a Consumer
Product
December 2001 2002
Product launch: Good Morning America Show
Time Magazine December 7th 2001 “Here ‘It’ Is” article
Timeline
Lobying efforts begin to overturn ban from sidewalks
March 2002
Banned in San Francisco
CA.
March 2002 2002
Motorized Scooters & Segways are banned across the U.S.
Timeline
New Owner same year dies
November 2002
Popular Science Awards
Segway “Best of What’s
New
February 2004 September 27th, 2010
Disney Banns Segways from parks
Timeline
2013
Supreme Court ended attempts to force Disney to permit Segways from their parks