and the GEO Task CL-02 “Global Carbon Observations and Analysis” A. Bombelli

GEO IX PLENARY – European Commission side event. Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 21-23 November

and the GEO Task CL-02“Global Carbon Observations and Analysis”

A. Bombelli (CL-02 Task Lead & GEOCARBON Project Manager)

CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy

GEO CARBON

Toward a coordinated global carbon observation and analysis system


The Global Carbon Cycle



State of the art of C-observations

Many monitoring networks at global level

Many different methods to monitor and analyse C-cycle

Many C emissions/absorptions estimates at different temporal/spatial scale

Impressive scientific information

lack of continuity and sustainability

still high uncertainty / still under-represented regions and ecosystems types

difficult to translate science into policy relevant information

interoperability of the systems and intercomparison of the results are difficult

Coordination for a global integration

of the current systems and data

is neededto build a

GEOSS for Carbon

BUT…

State of the art of C-observations


The Global Carbon Cycle:need for coordination for a global integration



From COCOS to ICOS & GEOCARBON:the EU leadership for a global GEO carbon observing system

FP5/FP6, CARBOEUROPE cluster, CarboAfrica, CarboOcean, others: put in place and/or enhance the EU carbon monitoring system; improved knowledge of the European (and African) C-cycle.

FP7, COCOS: coordinated European and global carbon relevant initiatives; defined the GEO C-Strategy.

FP7, ICOS: set up the infrastructure for a integrated and standardized monitoring of C-cycle at global level, starting from Europe.

FP7, GEOCARBON: global coordination toward the design and development of an Operational Global Integrated Carbon

Observation and Analysis System.

FP5/FP6, CARBOEUROPE cluster, CarboAfrica, CarboOcean, others: put in place and/or enhance the EU carbon monitoring system; improved knowledge of the European (and African) C-cycle.

FP7, COCOS: coordinated European and global carbon relevant initiatives; defined the GEO C-Strategy.

FP7, ICOS: set up the infrastructure for a integrated and standardized monitoring of C-cycle at global level, starting from Europe.

FP7, GEOCARBON: global coordination toward the design and development of an Operational Global Integrated Carbon

Observation and Analysis System.

Past

Present

Future

?

Past

Present

Future

?Operation (beyond research projects)Priority: sustain operational infrastructures for earth observation (particularly in situ)

Strategy

Infrastructure

Coordination

Experience

The European contribution toGlobal Carbon Observations


European Commission (EC) / Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)

Starting date: 01/10/2011 Duration: 36 monthsTotal funds: 8.6 M€ (6.6 M€ from EC)

Project Coordinator:Prof. Riccardo ValentiniEuro-MediterraneanCenter for Climate ChangeCMCC, Italy

To develop a coordinated Global Carbon Observation and Analysis System, supporting the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) toward building a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for carbon (last 3 years of the GEO WP).

GEOCARBON

European project but global contribution!


Geo Carbon Strategy

• New version IGCO report• Coordinated by Carbon

Community of Practice• Recommendations for short

and long term developments • Living document• Developed by COCOS• to be continued by GEOCARBON

A rationale for GEOCARBON


GEOCARBON was conceived in response to a call for proposals launched by the European Commission in 2010. The aim was to support a European project specifically contributing to GEO at global level in the area of C-cycle.

The project is shaped around the GEO Work Plan and particularly its task CL-02, ‘Global Carbon Observations and Analysis’, in order to meet the GEO targets for carbon (within the climate target):-better understanding of the global carbon cycle-development and facilitation of a comprehensive (atmosphere, ocean, land) global carbon observation and analysis system in support of monitoring based decision-making and related environmental treaty obligations.

GEOCARBON activities are embedded in the task CL-02 and are coordinated with the GEO Secretariat and GEO global community monitoring C-cycle.

GEOCARBON is different from previous EC “Carbon” projects: not just independent research but a contribution to GEO!

&


Observe

Share

Inform

GEO: Observe, Share, Inform

collect, synthetize and analyze carbon cycle observations (pools and fluxes) in all its domains (atmosphere, land, water, and human dimension) by ground and space based approaches

carbon related data, database, products, etc. (through GCI, i.e. GEO Portal, GEOSS Data Core)

decision makers to timely address environmental policies

GEO Task CL-02Global Carbon Observation and Analysis

Task CL-02: Observe, Share, Inform


1 Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), Italy2 University of East Anglia, United Kingdom 3 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETHZ), Switzerland4 University of Wageningen, The Netherlands5 University of Oxford, United Kingdom 6 VU University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 7 University of Leeds, United Kingdom8 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany 9 University of Versailles, LSCE France 10 Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), The Netherlands11 Second University of Naples, Italy 12 University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom 13 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC), Norway14 University of Tuscia, Italy15 University of Bergen, Norway16 GAMMA Remote Sensing Research and Consulting AG, Switzerland 17 Cameroon Biodiversity Conservation Society, Cameroon 18 FastOpt, Germany19 University of Bristol, United Kingdom 20 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria 21 Research Institute of Nuclear Energy (IPEN), Brazil 22 Food and Agriculture Organisation of The United Nations (FAO) 23 Free University of Brussels, Belgium 24 National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), France 25 University of Hamburg, Germany

GEOCARBON – The partnership


2- Data 2- Data assimilation assimilation

system (CCDAS)system (CCDAS)

4- Tropical 4- Tropical hotspotshotspots

5- Global and 5- Global and regional regional

synthesissynthesis

3- Specifications 3- Specifications and Network and Network

DesignDesign

1- Observation 1- Observation data streamsdata streams

8- Outreach and 8- Outreach and GEO InterfaceGEO Interface

7- Cost benefit 7- Cost benefit analysisanalysis

Coordination links Data exchange

6- CH46- CH4

Project ManagementProject Management

GEOCARBON – Working Components


WP1: Land stocks & change

WP2: Land-atm fluxes

WP3: Lateral fluxes

WP5: Anthropogenic

fluxes

WP6: Atmospheric &

other

WP7: Integration & synthesis

Component 2 Component 4Carbon office

Provide an aggregated set of harmonized global carbon data.

GEOCARBONComponent 1 - Observations data streams


SOCAT: world largest surface CO2 database: >9 million CO2 data (+ sea characteristics, i.e. temperature, salinity, etc.)•Time frame: 1968-2011•Second version (blue lines) supported by GEOCARBON: 60% data more than previous vs (red)

•Uniform format•Transparent, fully documented•Open accessible by Spring 2013•Supported by UNESCO/SCOR’s IOCCP, SOLAS and IMBER

Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas V2

www.socat.info

CMP1(example)


www.rainfor.org

M. Herold, Geocarbon WP1

CMP1(example)

Global land stocks and changes


Derive a global aboveground forest biomass dataset

(September 2013)

Strategy:

• Combine existing datasets (weighted average approach)

• Regional validation (independent field data and local maps)

Specifications:

• Spatial resolution: 1 Km

• Variable: Aboveground live biomass of trees with dbh >10 cm (expansion for 0 – 10 cm may be also performed)

• Reference period: circa 2005 – 2010 (depending on the reference years of the input maps)

• Validation: Discrepancy map & Error statistics

Global Forest BiomassCMP1(example)

COORDINATION WITH GFOI ENSURED:GEOCARBON WP1 leader, Martin Herold, member of advisory board for methods and guidance for GFOI


M. Santoro, 2012

GSV - Santoro, 2012

Forest Biomass/Volume mapsCMP1(example)


FLUXNET: A Global Network of Observation Sites500+ Sites, 10 Regional Networks, 45 Countries

CMP1(example)

DATASETS


Ocean model

ecosystem model

Land use & forest data

Anthropogenic emissions

Ocean & terrestrialin situ data

atmospheric data

Land imager(SAR: Biomass)

CO2 conc. (GOSAT, OCO2,…)Wind & Temp. profile

Atmospheric model

Natural & Human GHG emission map

Remote sensing

5 global data assimilation systems (simultaneously integrating models and observations of the land, ocean and atmosphere carbon cycle) + 2 ocean-only process models.

GEOCARBONComponent 2 - CCDAS


Including: accuracy requirements, network performance, gap analysis, and feasibility.

Define the detailed requirements for an operational integrated global carbon observing system.

Considering: different (ground and space based) networks sampling the ocean, the land and the atmospheric carbon reservoirs.

GEOCARBON Component 3Accuracy requirements and network design

GEOCARBONComponent 4 – C-cycle in the tropics

GEOCARBON Case study:Application of the carbon observing system

in theTropics, with a focus on Africa and Amazon

(details in the last slides!)


Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010)

9.1±0.5 PgC y-1

+0.9±0.7 PgC y-1

2.6±1.0 PgC y-1

26%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

5.0±0.2 PgC y-1

50%

24%2.4±0.5 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

GEOCARBON Component 5Integrated CO2 budgets and uncertainties

Carbon Budget 2010 ContributorsThomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent BoppLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. CanadellGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. ConwayNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steven Davis Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USAScott C. DoneyWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USAPierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, FranceQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UKJoe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Corinne Le QuéréTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,University of East Anglia, UKAndrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg MarlandResearch Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USAGlen P. PetersCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, NorwayMichael R. RaupachGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen SitchSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Jerry TijputraUniversity of Bergen, Norway

www.globalcarbonproject.org

Now also GEOCARBON!

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/

http://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/


Emission estimates

Measurements

Inverse modeling

Evaluation

Synthesis

Process modelingEmission inventory

Surface networks

Satellites

Global budgets

Flux variability

measurement campaigns Integration and synthesis of theglobal CH4 cycle

SCIAMACHY,GOSAT, IASI.

Wetlands

GEOCARBON Component 6Global CH4 cycle


Provide an economic (cost and benefit) assessment of the value (monetary and non monetary) of an enhanced Global Carbon Observation System.

Track 1 (led by IIASA & CMCC, partners: LSCE-IPSL)Benefit = Less expensive policy (avoided deforestation) through reduced uncertainty (less overcompliance needed, less underreporting possible)

Track 2 (led by IIASA & CMCC, partners: FASTOPT, University of Bristol)Benefit = Less expensive to reach target due to earlier commitment, reduced risk of irreversible damages

Track 3 (led by IIASA & CMCC)Coupling of land use and energy-economy models

GEOCARBON Component 7Costs-benefits analysis

Expected value

Carbon flux from deforestation

Undetected under-reporting

Over-compliance to ensure that target is met


GEO-Carbon-Office (GCO) just launched! •Interface with EC•Liaise with GEO Secretariat and GFOI•Strengthen the effectiveness of the global carbon community participation in GEO•Enhance the communication flow among the different communities•Support the Carbon Community of Practice•Mediate between science and policy•Outreach

Currently: sustained and coordinated by the GEOCARBON Project, with a global perspective (not Europe only!)

Ambition: engage a wider community and become an international coordinating office sustained by an international organization or partnership, after the project’s end (from 2015 onwards).

Component 8Dissemination and exploitation of the results.Turn the results into policy relevant information.Liaise with relevant partners and decision makers.

GEOCARBON Component 8Outreach and Project Coordination

COORDINATION WITH GFOIUNDER DEVELOPMENT


Monthly GOSAT XCO2 observations

GHG observations by GOSATGreenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

(TANSO-FTS SWIR Level 2 Ver.02.00, 2.5 deg. grid monthly means of XCO2


Monthly GOSAT XCH4 observations


(TANSO-FTS SWIR Level 2 Ver.02.00, 2.5 deg. grid monthly means of XCH4


Data validation activities have been conducted by worldwide research groups


• Column concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have been retrieved by several groups (institutes and universities) in the world.

• These data are validated with TCCON FTS data and/or airplane data.

• Present GOSAT XCO2 data quality is within -0.3% bias and 0.5% variation.


Contribution of satellite data to carbon flux estimation


Activity in AIST, JAPAN

MKL

SKR

Takayama (TKY) is the oldest monitoring site in Asia since 1993 Location ： 36.1oN, 137.4oE, 1420m

Flux observation in Japan (TKY) and Thailand (SKR, MKL) in forest site

A handbook was published with FFPRI, NIAES and NIES (2011)

18 0 6 12 18 0 6395

400

405

410

415

420

395

400

405

410

415

420

CO

2(ppm

v)

HOURS

CAL OBS

13:00JST, Jan. 7, 2011

★

★

★ICHIHARA

★ SHIRAKO

Numerical simulation of local transport of CO2 around Tokyo

Data acquisition with SOS standard in OGC

Flux measurement in Tokyo (urban site)

TSUKUBA(MRI)

Comparison with the observation at MRI, Tsukuba


CONTRAIL

GOSATGround based obs.

CO2 Data assimilation using AIST-MM and NICAM-TM

CO2 concent. （ ppmv ）

Kanto Plane

（ by H.Kondo ）

Specific obs.mode

Vertical profiles

Narita

Powerplants

Central Tokyo

（ by Y.Niwa ）

GlobalSimulation asthe boundarycondition

NICAM-TM

AIST-MM

Objective : Developing CO2 Data assimilation system for assessing urban CO2 emissions


CO2 transport simulation Global Regional (urban area)

Electric Power PlantWind direction: NW

Wind direction: SE（ NICAM-TM: from Y. Niwa, AIST-MM: H. Kondo)

AIST-MM: horizontal resolution = 2km

GEOCARBON& Brazil!

GEOCARBONComponent 4 – C- cycle in the tropics


Atmospheric concentrations Ecosystem fluxes Biomass inventories EOS land use River carbon

Case study:the observing system in thetropics:AmazonandAfrica

A combination of

Reduce the uncertainty of the net carbon balance and trends of tropical South America and Africa in order to improve regional C-budgets.

GEOCARBONComponent 4 – C- cycle in the tropics


RAINFOR monitoring in S. America

www.rainfor.org www.afritron.org www.forestplots.netRAINFOR: more than 200 partners & 30 nations. Global collaborative measurements

of >800 plots since 2000. Common protocols, for field monitoring of forests’ biomass, biodiversity and long-term carbon balance + data analysis

RAINFOR inSouth America:> 350 field plots, of which139 in Brazil1985 – now!

Now coordinated with GEOCARBON!

RAINFOR Moore funded plots Intensive plots Collaborators' plots Pre 2008 plots

http://www.rainfor.org/

http://www.afritron.org/

http://www.forestplots.net/

RAINFOR includesO. Phillips1, Y. Malhi2, J. Lloyd1, T. Baker1, G. Lopez Gonzalez1, L. Arroyo3,4, N. Higuchi5,

T. Killeen3,6, W. Laurance7,8, S. Lewis1,9, A. Monteagudo10,11, F. Ramirez, D. Neill4, P. Núñez Vargas10, N. Silva12,13, J. Terborgh14, R. Vásquez Martínez11, S. Almeida16, R.

Brienen1, J. Chave18, J. A. Comiskey19, C. Czimczik, A. Di Fiore20, T. Erwin19, T. Feldpausch1, E. Jimenez, S. Patiño1, 22, J. Peacock1, N. Pitman15, A. Prieto, C.A.

Quesada23,1, M. Saldias3, M. Silveira, A. Torres Lezama24, B. Vinceti25, E. Alvarez26, M.C. Peñuela, A. Rudas-Ll27, L. Anderson2, L. Aragao2, S. Brown17, N.D. Cardozo, K.-J. Chao1, M. Garcia-Hernandez1, J. Silva, E. Honorio, I. Huamantupa, A. Peña Cruz, H. Ramirez, R. Salomão, N. Salinas, M. Schwarz, A. Sota, H. ter Steege, J. Stropp, G. van der Heijden1, H. Keeling1, C. Kuebler6, S. Laurance7,8, H. Nascimento7,8, J.

Olivier18, W. Palacios21

1. University of Leeds, UK. 2. University of Oxford, U.K. 3. Museo Noel Kempff Mercado, Santa Cruz, Bolivia. 4. Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis MO, USA. 5. Instituto National de Pesquisas

Amazônicas, Manaus, Brazil. 6. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, Washington DC, USA. 7. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama. 8. Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Program, Manaus, Brazil. 9. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK. 10. Herbario Vargas, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Peru. 11. Proyecto Flora del

Perú, Jardin Botanico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Perú. 12. CIFOR, Tapajos, Brazil. 13. EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental, Belém, Brazil. 14. Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham NC,

USA. 15. New York Botanical Garden, Bronx NY, USA. 16. Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belem, Brazil. 17. Winrock International, Arlington VA, USA. 18. Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité

Biologique, CNRS/UPS Toulouse, France. 19. Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC, USA. 20. Department of Anthropology, New York University NY, USA. 21. Fundacion Jatun Sacha, Quito,

Ecuador. 22. Alexander von Humboldt Biological Research Institute, Bogotá, Colombia. 23. Departamento de Ecología, Universidade de Brasilia, Brazil. 24. INDEFOR, Universidad de Los Andes,

Mérida, Venezuela. 25. International Plant Genetic Resources Institute, Rome, Italy. 26. Equipo de Gestión Ambiental, Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. ISA., Medellín, Colombia 27. Instituto de Ciencias

Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.

Each year pre-2005 Amazon gained 0.45 [0.3,0.6] Pg C

Phillips et al. Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest. 2009.

During 2005 Amazon lost 0.9 [0.2,1.6] Pg C (including committed losses)

Phillips et al. Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest. 2009.

2 sites currently funded byGEOCARBON:- Tabatinga, Amazonas state- Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso state

CO2 vertical profilesover Amazonsupported byGEOCARBON

Amazonian intact forests were/area carbon sink

This sink is vulnerable to climate change!

Fires, high temperature and droughtcan neutralize it!


Current results for Amazonia


GEOCARBON related events, 11-15 March 2013 in Geneva

11 March 2013: GEOCARBON internal meetingInternal update on the project progress to organize the project reporting to EC

12-13 March 2013: Conference "Towards a global Carbon Observing and Analysis System: Specifications, Uncertainties and Tropical Hot Spots"Scientific presentations about the “carbon” work in the frame of GEO to share findings and promote collaborationsParticipants: GEO “carbon” community, potential users and stakeholders, EC.

14-15 March 2013: GEO CL-02 Task meetingMeeting of the GEO CL-02 task on Global Carbon Observations and Analysis System. To revamp the engagement and coordination of the GEO carbon community, and link with GFOI and FCT.

Suggestions and active involvement and participation are welcomed!

GEOCARBONConference + meetings in 11-15 March 2013


[email protected]

www.cmcc.it

GEO CARBON

THANKS!

Toward a coordinated global carbon observation and analysis system

and the GEO Task CL-02 “Global Carbon Observations and Analysis” A. Bombelli

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