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ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY:ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE
CHALLENGINGCHALLENGING
Scott GoldsmithInstitute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
3rd Anchorage School District Conference on Personalizing Education
April 21 and 22, 2006Anchorage, Alaska
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Alaska in the 21st Century
Percent high
school graduate or higher
Percent bachelor's degree or
higher
Median household
income (dollars)
Percent of people all ages in poverty
Percent of related children under 18 in poverty
Mean travel time to work
(minutes)
Lincoln, NE MSA 94.3% 33.5% $40,150 12.1% 15.6% 15.8
Madison, WI MSA 93.7% 41.8% $50,661 10.3% 8.8% 18.9
Boulder--Longmont, CO PMSA 93.6% 55.2% $61,493 10.2% 9.8% 20.9
Provo--Orem, UT MSA 92.1% 31.3% $41,578 13.9% 11.8% 19.1
Eugene--Springfield, OR MSA 91.4% 24.6% $33,360 15.7% 18.3% 21.2
Seattle--Bellevue--Everett, WA PMSA 91.2% 37.7% $54,343 8.7% 10.2% 25.8
Tallahassee, FL MSA 91.1% 37.6% $37,110 14.7% 14.8% 20.8
Anchorage, AK MSA 91.0% 31.5% $60,728 5.9% 6.9% 18.5
Tacoma, WA PMSA 91.0% 23.0% $44,615 9.8% 12.7% 28.0
Ann Arbor, MI PMSA 90.8% 36.0% $53,516 9.9% 10.0% 25.0
ACS 2002, 165 Large Metro Areas
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ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR ALASKA
New Resources
6%
Federal Govt33%
Oil & Gas33%
Personal Assets
20%
Traditional Resources
8%
Shares of Personal Income in 2000
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Economic Trends to WatchEconomic Trends to Watch
• Petroleum is the Future
• Slowdown in Federal $
• More Urban
•Lower Wage
• More Non-Wage Income
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Alaska in the 21st Century
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
AgricultureTimberGasSeafoodMiningOil
ALASKA NATURAL RESOURCE PRODUCTIONMARKET VALUE (Billion 2003 $)
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Alaska in the 21st Century
Grants$1,58653.0%
Procurement$691
23.1%
Transfers$480
16.0%
Wages$2357.8%
Increase in Federal Spending in Alaska1997 to 2004 (Million $)
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Federal Aid Per Capita:Highest in the US
$0$500
$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000
Alaska
Wyoming
New York
North DakotaMontana
US Average
1990 GROWTH 1990 TO 1995 GROWTH 1995 TO 1999 GROWTH 1999 TO 2003
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THE MAILBOX ECONOMY
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Alaska in the 21st Century
Mov
e It
Dig
It U
p
Har
vest
It
Unc
le S
am
Serv
ices
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Trad
e
Stat
e/Lo
cal-10
01020304050
-1001020304050
Tho
usan
d
Dig It Up = Oil and Mining, Harvest It = Seafood and TimberFederal = Military and Civilian, Move It = Tourism and Air Cargo
Alaska Job Growth1993 to 2003
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Shares of New Jobs 1990-2000 by Shares of New Jobs 1990-2000 by Sex ????????Sex ????????
Anchorage at 90
44.0%
56.0%
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Alaska in the 21st Century
75-85 85-95 95-050
10
20
30
40
50
60Jo
bs A
dded
(000
) UrbanRural
Urban=Railbelt + Juneau
Alaska W&S Jobs:Past Growth Pattern
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Alaska in the 21st Century
Distribution of Anchorage Wage Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150
Annual Wage (000$)
Num
ber o
f Wor
kers
(000
)
1980 2000
Full time workers aged 25 to 55
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Alaska in the 21st Century
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
200060%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Net Labor and Proprietor Income by Place of Residence
Alaska Household IncomeShare from Wages
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Anchorage: THE BEGINNINGAnchorage: THE BEGINNING
Anchorage at 90
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Anchorage: TODAYAnchorage: TODAY
Anchorage at 90
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Where are the Jobs?
PRIVATE SERVICES
54%
GOVT16%
Military5%
Self Employed
18%GOODS
PRODUCING7%
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Private Service Economy
Trade22%
Professional17%
Health17%
Leisure15%
Transport10%
Finance8%
Other Services6%
Information5%
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Anchorage/Matsu Population Anchorage/Matsu Population GrowthGrowth
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
20102015
20202025
20300
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Matsu Anch
Insti tu te of Socia l and Economic Research
Anchorage / Matsu Population (000)
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Matsu Growth Driver: CommutersMatsu Growth Driver: Commuters
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
5
10
15
20
Com
mut
ers
(000
)
20%21%22%23%24%25%26%
Com
mut
er S
hare
%
Commuters Commuting Share
Matsu Commuter Population
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Commuters to Anchorage Earn MoreCommuters to Anchorage Earn MoreMatsu Worker Average Annual Wage by Place of Work
Matsu Anchorage North Slope
Elsewhere including
out-of-state Construction $34,923 $48,512 $67,655 $57,112
Federal civilian and military $35,630 $45,623 $35,242
Forestry, fishing, agriculture, mining $36,739 $54,275 $62,145 $70,783
Information, finance and insurance, real estate
$38,513 $46,347
Manufacturing $31,952 $48,956 $43,000 Self-employed (part) and unpaid family workers
$23,723 $29,098 $13,515
Services $30,059 $37,251 $51,585 $43,232 State and local government $34,047 $45,587 $46,672 $40,337
Utilities, transportation, and Warehousing
$29,690 $58,221 $79,594 $74,889
Wholesale and retail trade $24,314 $37,579 $42,052 $51,100
Source: U.S. Census
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Selected Characteristics of the RegionSelected Characteristics of the RegionANCH MATSU
Extra Females 65+ 1,706 6
White 72% 88%Owner Occupied 60% 79%
College + 29% 18%“Born in the USA” 90% 96%
In Labor Force 74% 66%Children<6, Parents Work 61% 53%
Median HH Income (000$) $55.5 $51.2Families with Kids<5 in Poverty 11% 17%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTIONSPOPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTIONS
WHITE NATIVE OTHER
ANCHORAGE<20 64% 14% 22%40+ 79% 8% 13%
MATSU<20 83% 12% 5%40+ 92% 5% 3%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Groups of Interest: Groups of Interest:
How Are They Doing?How Are They Doing?
Alaska in the 21st Century
• Workers
• Women
• Families
• Other Households
• Low Income
• Alaska Natives
• Other Minorities
• Children
• Young Adults
• Baby Boomers
• Seniors
• Cheechakos
• Sourdoughs
• Military
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Some Challenges Using the CensusSome Challenges Using the Census
Anchorage at 90
•Small Sample Size
•Self Reporting of Information
•Definitional Quicksand
•A Decade Can Mask Lots of Change
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Sha
re o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Source: US CensusNote: Line represents US as a whole.
Alaska Age Distribution in 2000
Alaska in the 21st Century
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ANCHORAGE VS. MATSUANCHORAGE VS. MATSU
Alaska in the 21st Century
ANCHORAGE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN 2000
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Anchorage MATSU
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Alaska in the 21st Century
Alaska Population Change 1990-2005
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+
Age
Num
ber
Source: Alaska Dept of Labor
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INTERSTATE MOVEMENTINTERSTATE MOVEMENT
1995-20001995-2000
Alaska in the 21st Century
OTHER STATES 31,385
ABROAD 4,755
OTHER STATES 52,105
ABROAD ???
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INTRASTATE MOVEMENTINTRASTATE MOVEMENT
1995-20001995-2000
Alaska in the 21st Century
11,413 IN FROM
25% Remote Rural Alaska
19% Matsu
16% Frbks
13% Kenai Peninsula
27% Other
42% Matsu
17% Kenai Peninsula
12% Remote Rural
11% Frbks
18% Other
12,222 OUT TO
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Gross Migration: Who Came and Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000?Went 1995 to 2000?
•Overall•35% more left
•Race•52% more Whites left•60% more Asians arrived
•Income•Movers had lower incomes
•Household Type•61% more Married Couples Left
•Education•More folks in the “middle” left
•Age•Baby boomers & their kids left
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Recent Immigrants Are DifferentRecent Immigrants Are Different
Alaska in the 21st Century
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A Measure of DiversityA Measure of Diversity
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Racial Composition of Anchorage Racial Composition of Anchorage Civilian PopulationCivilian Population
Share Growth
in 2000 from 1990
• TOTAL 19%
• White 73.3% +4%• Ak Native 10% ???• Asian 5.2% +27%• Black 5.2% +20%• Mixed 5% na• Pacific Islander 1.3% 415%Alaska in the 21st Century
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Age Distribution of Anchorage Age Distribution of Anchorage Population in 2000 Population in 2000
<10 Boomer
(36-54)
•White 15% 46% •Asian 17% 40%•Black 19% 37%•Ak Native 25% 31%•Pacific Islander 27% 26%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Racial Diversity in the SchoolsRacial Diversity in the Schools
Alaska in the 21st Century
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CHILDRENCHILDREN
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Share of Households with Children Share of Households with Children in 2000in 2000
• White 39%• All HH 42% • Asian 51%• Black 53%• Ak Native 48%• Pacific Islands 69%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Share of Children Living in Share of Children Living in Different HH Types by Race: 2000Different HH Types by Race: 2000
Anchorage at 90
Married Couple 76 77 50 45 75 70 72
Single Woman, no other Adult Present 10 9 29 22 na 14 13Single Woman, other Adult Present 4 9 17 16 na 7 9.4
Single Man, no other Adult Present 3.5 2 1.5 2.3 na 3 1.8Single Man, other Adult Present 6 2 3 12 na 6 4.2
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Families with ChildrenFamilies with ChildrenAll Families Female no Husband%
•All 36,765 7,839 21%
•White 27,284 4,623 17%•Black 2,613 946 36%• Native 2,342 1,089 46%•Asian 1,898 338 18%•Pacific Is 343 90 26%•Other 905 233 26%•2+ Races 1,483 520 35%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 ($17,500 for Family of 4($17,500 for Family of 4): ):
Total Persons ChildrenTotal Persons Children
•White 4% 5.8%•All HH 5% 9.3%•Asian 10% 21.3%*•Black 11% 13.8•Pacific Islander 14% 21.3%*•Ak Native 9% 16.3%
•US Total 12.4% 16.6%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look
1999 Census Bureau Poverty Threshold (used for 2000 Census)
Persons in Family
Unit Under 65 65 and
Over All
Households
1 $8,667 $7,990 2 $11,156 $10,070 3 $13,290 4 $17,029 5 $20,127 6 $22,727 7 $25,914 8 $28,967
9+ $34,417 Source: US Census Note: Persons are all adults. Thresholds for households with children are slightly higher.
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Alaska NativesAlaska Natives
Alaska in the 21st Century
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%S
hare
of P
opul
atio
n
Source: US CensusNote: Line represents Alaska. Native includes Natives of mixed race.
Alaska Native Age Distribution in 2000
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Native Women Outnumber Men in Native Women Outnumber Men in Anchorage in 2000Anchorage in 2000
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Real Earnings of Native WomenReal Earnings of Native Women
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Native Household Composition: Native Household Composition: Urban vs RuralUrban vs Rural
Alaska in the 21st Century
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SeniorsSeniors
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Alaska Senior RankingsAlaska Senior Rankings
• #50 Share of Population
• #2 Growth Rate in Seniors
• #1 Baby Boomer Share of Population
Alaska in the 21st Century
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ALASKA SENIORS
1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-20300%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% In
crea
se
AlaskaUS
Growth of Senior Population 65+:Alaska vs. US
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Alaska Domestic Civilian Net Migration Rate: 65+ Population
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
0
1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-00
Time Period
Rat
e (%
)
Source: Census of Population, IPUMS, ISER.
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Alaska in the 21st Century
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Median Income 2000: Senior Headed HHMedian Income 2000: Senior Headed HH
•All US HH over 65 $26,600
•All Anchorage HH over 65 $45,000
•Anchorage Married Couples over 65 $67,700
•Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65 $21,600
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Median HH Income in 2000Median HH Income in 2000
•White $61,800•All HH $57,000•Asian $47,000•Black $43,000•Pacific Islander $36,600•Ak Native $36,000
•US Total $41,800
Alaska in the 21st Century
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The Permanent Fund’s Solution
The Permanent Fund Dividend
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Who was in the Bottom 20% of Who was in the Bottom 20% of HHs in 2000?HHs in 2000?
•Children being raised by single mothers 51%•People 65+ 24%•Full Time Workers 7%•Adults with College Educations 7%•Residents by Race
•White 12%•Asian 19%•Pacific Islander 21%•Ak Native 27%•Black 29%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Young AdultsYoung Adults
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Young AdultsYoung AdultsMedian Earnings of High School Dropouts as a Median Earnings of High School Dropouts as a
% of College Graduates% of College Graduates
1980 1990 20000%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Alaska in the 21st Century
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The Brain DrainThe Brain Drain
8-14 Population in 1990 63,518
Stayers 34,935
-Leavers 28,583
+New Arrivals 16,508
18-24 Population in 2000 51,443
Alaska in the 21st Century
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Take Away MessageTake Away Message•Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents
•People are still coming to Alaska to look for opportunity—And finding it
•Economic opportunity means different things to different people
•Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more opportunities than men
•Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So household income remains high
•Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD
•Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all
•We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than we do
•Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents
Alaska in the 21st Century
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For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy:
www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu
www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu
ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY:ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE
CHALLENGINGCHALLENGING