Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation

Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for

Conservation

Jonathan [email protected]

Writ large…

What if?

or… or…

ForestCondition Conservation?

Developed?

Harvested?

Wind or Ice?

Aggregate changes

For a given climate scenario…:

Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose

Map species& biomass

ForestCondition Conservation?

Developed?

Harvested?

Wind or Ice?

Aggregate changes

For a given climate scenario…:

Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose

Map species& biomass

Actual Forest Loss to Development1985 to 1999

Probability of Future Forest Loss

Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development

Size of New Developments

cover

cou

nt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 20 40 60 80 100

N = 300Ave = 55%

• 4300 ha /yr• 5 development treatments

(historical size and intensity)

• Historical spatial distribution

Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development

ForestCondition Conservation?

Developed?

Harvested?

Wind or Ice?

Aggregate changes

For a given climate scenario…:

Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose

Map species& biomass

Actual Timber Harvest 1985 to 2004

> 13,000 Harvests

Simulating Current Trends:

Timber Harvest

POPULATION DENSITY

Harvest

Development

Legend

2

3

4

14

15

17

18

27

Pro

babi

lity

Simulating Current Trends:Timber Harvest

• 10,500 ha/yr• 6 different treatments

(historical size, species & intensity)

• Historical spatial distribution

ForestCondition Conservation?

Developed?

Harvested?

Wind or Ice?

Aggregate changes

For a given climate scenario…:

Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose

Map species& biomass

ForestCondition Conservation?

Developed?

Harvested?

Wind or Ice?

Aggregate changes

For a given climate scenario…:

Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose

Map species& biomass

B

iom

ass

(T

g)

Climate

+ Dev +

Harv

Climate

+ Dev Clim

ate

+ Harv

Climate only

No Clim

ate

+ Dev + H

arv

No Clim

ate

+ Dev

No Clim

ate

+ Harv

No Clim

ate

05

01

00

15

02

00

02

55

07

51

00

Pe

rce

nt C

ha

ng

e (

%)

Growth only = + 70%Conversion = - 8 %Timber Harvests = - 2 %Climate Change = + 6 %

Fifty-years of Carbon sequestration at “Current Trends”

0 10 20 30 40 50

02

04

06

08

01

00

Sim1_CT

Simulation Years

% o

f To

tal A

bo

veg

rou

nd

Bio

ma

ss

ACRU

PISTTSCH

QURUBELE

ACSA3

ALL OTHER

FAGRBEPA BELE

Not a lot of difference in relative spp abundance.

• White Pine and Red Maple were 1st & 2nd irrespective• Climate change reinforced their dominance• Harvesting reduced Red Oak from 11 to 9.5% • Development was indiscriminate in terms of species

TAKE HOME MESSAGE: ASSUMING FUTURE LAND USE RESEMBLES THE

RECENT PAST

1.CONTINUED FOREST RECOVERY WILL BE THE DOMINANT MECHANISM DRIVING FOREST DYNAMICS OVER THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS

2.CLIMATE CHANGE MAY ENHANCE THE RATE OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY LOSSES DUE TO LAND-USE, PRIMARILY FOREST CONVERSION TO DEVELOPED USES.

"Future Directions"

1. Complete multiple, stake-holder driven scenarios for MA

2. Link a series of alternative scenarios to metrics of water and habitat quality

3. Develop New England-wide approach4. Host workshop with potential partners in

other regions

Questions?

Jonathan R. Thompson, PhDResearch EcologistSmithsonian [email protected]

subsequent slides are for use in case of questions.

MA GNN Work led by Ty Wilson, USFS Northern Research Station

Initial Forest Condition

Initial Forest Condition

From Imputation of field data:Species Distributions, Age Class Distributions, Above Ground Biomass

Initial Forest Condition

0 100 200 300 400

01

00

20

03

00

FIA AGB (Mgha)

LA

ND

IS A

GB

(M

g/h

a)

ACRUPISTTSCAQURUBELEACSA3FAGRBEPABEAL2FRAM2QUALQUVEPRSE2QUCO2PIRIQUPR2POTR5POGR4PIRUCAOV2CAGL8OSVINYSYBEPOABBA

r = 0.7RMSE = 44Mg ha-1

Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development

Species Harvested

LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator

LANDIS-II WITH MODULES

LAND USE CHANGE

CONSERVATION

HARVESTING

SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES

SEED DISPERSAL

TREE SPECIESESTABLISHMENT

DEAD BIOMASS

NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITYPROCESSES

LIVING BIOMASS

INSECTS / DISEASE

ANPP

PnET-iiAber et al.

PEST

LINKAGESPastor et al.

Scheller and Mladenoff

IPCCCLIMATE

SCENARIOS

COMPETITION/SUCCESSION

Parsing the Current Trends

Sim 1 Sim 2 Sim 3 Sim 4 Sim 5 Sim 6 Sim 7 Sim 8

Climate Change

Timber Harvest

Development

Simulation experiment with full factorial design andfive replicates of each simulation (based on power analysis)

16%