Analyst Presentation Conf call November 14 , 2011ir.gasplus.it/file_upload/PresentazioneAnalisti14Nov2011.pdf · Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep $/Bbl - 9M 2011 $/Bbl - 9M 2010

Analyst Presentation

Conf call

November 14th, 2011

www.gasplus.it

1 1

INDEX INDEX

MARKET SCENARIO

HIGHLIGHTS

FINANCIAL RESULTS

2011 OUTLOOK

Euro – Us Dollar Exchange rate

2

MARKET SCENARIO Market

TTF Gas Price

Brent Price Eni Gas Release Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

$/Bbl - 9M 2011 $/Bbl - 9M 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


€/MWh - 9M 2011 €/MWh - 9M 2010

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

1,45

1,50

1,55


€/$ - 9M 2011 €/$ - 9M 2010

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set

(€/MWh) - 2010/2011 (€/MWh) - 2009/2010

3 3

HIGHLIGHTS Fin. Overview

The first 9 months 2011 have been characterized by a very positive results of the

Exploration & Production BU thanks to the full contribution of Padana Energia branch and

the gas price increase. BU EBITDA up 83%

Supply & Sales recovery process, started in 1Q 2011 through an activity of portfolio’s

monitoring and hedging, has improved 3Q 2011 Ebitda, vs. 1Q and 2Q 2011. From

October 2011 (new Gas year) set up of the reduction of sale portfolio to optimize the

profitability and creditworthy customers

All the other BU remain in line vs. 9 months 2010

Better price scenario

Improving financial position thanks to working capital decrease, and to debt consolidation.

4 4

FINANCIAL RESULTS Fin. Overview

September 30, 2011 P&L

9M financial results

Increased EBITDA mainly due to improving E&P margin and to foreseen reduction of S&S losses

Decreased EBT due to a significant raise in financial interests linked to Padana financing

Increased Taxes due to the effect of the Robin Tax on both current ad deferred taxes. The tax rate

rose from 6.5% to 10.5%, and increased the perimeter of the companies subject to taxation

3Q financial results

Significant increase on EBITDA thanks to the E&P EBITDA nearly doubled mainly for Padana acquisition

(from €7.6 m to €13.2 m in 3Q 2011), and to an improved S&S EBITDA even if still negative.

M€9M '11 9M '10 %

change3Q '11 3Q '10 %

change

Total revenues 559.1 312.4 79.0% 131.4 94.2 39.5%

Operating Cost (538.8) (293.3) 83.7% (125.7) (95.3) 31.9%

EBITDA 20.3 19.1 6.3% 5.7 (1.1) 618.2%

EBIT 1.5 4.0 -62.5% (0.03) (5.0) 99.4%

EBT (8.1) 2.5 (3.50) (5.8)

Net Result (10.4) 0.3 -3566.7% (6.5) (4.0) -62.5%

EPS (0.24) 0.01 (0.15) (0.09)

21.5

39.4

7.613.6

-6.0

-22.8

-8.0 -6.5

4.1

4.4

0.30.0

1.1

0.4

-0.2 -1.0

-1.6

-1.1

-0.8 -0.4

9M '10 9M '11 3Q '10 3Q '11

E&P S&S Network Retail Other

8.6 23.33.9

8.8

-6.0-22.8

-8.1

-6.5

1.4 2.1

-0.6

-0.7

1.00.3

-0.3

-1.0

-1.00-1.50

-0.03

-0.65

9M '10 9M '11 3Q '10 3Q '11

E&P S&S Network Retail Other

5


September 30, 2011 Trend EBITDA & EBIT

EBITDA by BU EBIT by BU

€ M € M


Consolidated EBITDA +6.3% vs. 2010

Consolidated EBIT – 62% vs. 2010

3Q financial results

Consolidated EBITDA +618% vs. 2010

Consolidated EBIT +99% vs. 2010

6


9 Months 2011 Balance Sheet

*

September 30

2011

December 31

2010

%

Change

Inventories 48.2 57.3 -16%

Receivables 135.6 242.2 -44%

Payables (77.2) (153.6) -50%

Other working Credits/Debits 0.3 (26.0) -101%

Non Current Assets 530.2 538.0 -1%

Taxes, Abandonment, Severance

and other Provision (211.1) (206.0) 2%

Net Invested Capital 426.0 451.9 -6%

Net Financial Debt 234.9 250.6 -6%

of which long term 60.8 25.2

of which short term 174.1 225.4

Equity 191.1 201.3 -5%

Total Sources 426.0 451.9 -6%


Reducing in net working capital mainly due to gas stock decrease

Improvement of Net Financial Debt by reducing short term exposure

€ M

(*)

(*) Untill September 30, 2011

7


9 Months 2011 Cash Flow


Enhanced NFP thanks to an improved working capital even considering the advanced

reimbursement of €15million regarding the Bridge financing for Padana

(250,575)

20.326

(260,000)

(250,000)

(240,000)

(230,000)

(220,000)

(210,000)

(200,000)

(10.276)(2.317)

18.144

(10.200)

Dividends

(11)(234.909)

Initial NFP @ 1st Jan 2011

Taxes

Change in funds and WC

Net Capex /

Disposal

Financial income/expense

Final NFP @ 30th September

2011

Ebitda

€ Thousand

7.8

31.3

35.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Working capital financing

Revolving facility 2011 -2016 (up to €50M)

Self liquidating facilities

Overdrafts and others

74.1

160.8

Working capital financing Acquisition financing

15.0

45.0

40.0

25.8

35.0

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

Acquisition financing

USFIN (Equity)

Vendor Loan 2017

ML Term Loan - Balloon 2016 (*)

ML Term Loan -Amortizing 2012-2016 (*)

S Term Loan (Jan 31, 2012) (*)

FINANCIAL RESULTS

8

Fin. Overview

9 Months 2011 Breakdown of Net Financial Debt

€ M € M

€ M

(*) At the end of September all 3 Debt were part the bridge loan

E&P Domestic Business

The Business Unit's EBITDA amounted to EUR 39.4 million

including Padana for €13.2M. Net of these the increase is mainly

attributable to the higher transfer pricing +12% vs. 2010.

2P Reserves as at January 1, 2011 Mscme 5.236

Production

SPE: Oil production better than expectation thanks to some actions

on Mirandola concessions. Gas production is stable.

GPI: Light production decrease (-2,3%) over prior year. The

physiological production decline has been counterbalanced by one

new producing and some best performing wells.

Development

SPE: Awarded by MSE with the concession of Mezzocolle, that

represents one of the main development projects.

GPI: Successful drilling ,Muzza 5 DIR in the Recovato concession.

Gas in forecasted end 2011-beginning 2012.

Exploration

SPE: Ongoing exploration potential evaluation analysis.

GPI: Awarded by Italian MSE with the research permit in the

Faenza area. Awarded by UNMIG with the long production test

authorization on Masseria Morano 1 Diir well.

9 9

FINANCIAL RESULTS: E&P E&P

September 30, 2011 P&L : E&P contribution

E&P International Business

Romania: the exploration and development program in the

Pelican concession, is still suspended by current offshore law.

The operator issued a notice of force majeure, and according

with the Canada-Romania treaty, He was allowed to have 6

months negotiation in order to find a positive solution. The

operator of the JV (Sterling) is dealing with the Government to

solve in the next few months the situation. About the awarding

of the concession the situation is expected to be solved by the

end of 2011.

NL: Tullow has continued in the processing and evaluation of

new 3D seismic data relating to Seahorse project in the E15C

area, the conclusion is expected at the end of 2011.

Awarded with one year concession extension to Epidote JV

partners to allow a better feasibility evaluation of the project.

Poland: After the acquisition of 3D seismic, It has been

started the program of reprocessing of the data to be completed

within 2011 in order to define the potentiality of the area.

UK: ongoing of concessions renouncing and completed the

abandonment activity on off-shore license P001

9M '11 9M '10 % Change IIIQ11 IIIQ10 % Change

Hydrocarbon Production (MScme) 210.7 148.3 (*) 42% 68.5 49.0 (*) 40%

Exploration Capex Italy M€ 0.9 3.2 (*) -72% 0.3 0.1 (*) 200%

Exploration Capex International M€ 0.8 2.2 -64% 0.2 0.0 na

Development Capex M€ 6.5 8.6 (*) -24% 3.2 5.7 (*) -44%

EBITDA M€ 39.4 21.5 83% 13.6 7.6 79%

(*) Excluding Società Padana Energia

10

FINANCIAL RESULTS: Storage Storage

9 Months 2011 P&L : Storage contribution

SINARCA PROJECT (60% GPS)

Storage concession expected during 1H12.

Assignment of EPIC underway

SAN BENEDETTO (49% GPS)

EIA in process, and ongoing the engineering

for NOF purposes (Law 334/99)

POGGIOFIORITO (100%GPS)

EIA in process, and ongoing the engineering

for NOF purposes(Law 334/99)

Working

gas

Gasplus

Share(MSmc) (MSmc)

San Benedetto (AP) 522.0 255.8

(49% GPS)

Pggiofiorito (CH) 157.0 157.0

(100% GPS)

Sinarca (CB) 324.0 194.4

(60% GPS)

Total 1,003.0 607.2

11 11

FINANCIAL RESULTS: Commercial Gas Asset S&S

Supply & Sales contribution

Retail contribution

September 30, 2011 P&L

Still a negative Ebitda but recovering from III Q 2010 results (-6,5 M€ vs -8,1)

9M '11 9M '10 % Change IIIQ '11 IIIQ '10 % Change

Supply (MSmc) 1,812.5 1,150.1 58% 478.1 453.4 5%

Sales (MSms) 1,861.9 1,091.7 71% 424.0 344.5 23%

Captive Retail 440.2 384.1 15% 87.3 71.1 23%

Third Retail 592.6 347.1 71% 82.6 51.5 60%

Trading 829.1 360.5 130% 254.1 221.9 14%

Ebitda (M€) (22.8) (6.0) -280% (6.5) (8.1) 19%

Ebitda Adj (M€) (20.9) (6.0) -246% (5.7) (8.1) 29%

9M '11 9M '10 % Change IIIQ '11 IIIQ '10 % Change

Sales (MSms) 443.5 380.8 16% 90.8 71.7 27%

Residential 70.8 83.8 -16% 5.8 5.9 -3%

Small Business/ Multipod 86.9 75.8 15% 10.5 7.0 51%

Industrial 285.9 221.2 29% 74.5 58.8 27%

Ebitda (M€) 0.4 1.1 -64% (1.0) (0.2) -298%

FINANCIAL RESULTS: Commercial Gas Asset

12

S&S

Portfolio Optimization from GY 11/12

Differences between supply and sales volumes due to stock variation and network losses

Reduction in gas sales from GY 11/12 due to portfolio restructuring :

Decrease in sold volumes (2.653 Msmc in GY 10/11 vs 680 Msmc in GY 11/12) focusing on profitable

segments: captive residential and small business (~180Msmc) and 3rd Retail. No longer renewed

unprofitable captive industrial/multipod and exit from trading segment

Supply optimization: equity gas (~230 Mmc) and gas on long term transit at CEGH – Baumgarten

(~130Msmc) exploitation towards 3rd party supplies decrease

Hedging policy, already in place on actual portfolio, will be applied and strengthened on new GY

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Supply GY 10/11 Sales GY 10/11 Supply GY 11/12 Sales GY 11/12

Equity Gas Gas on Long Term Transit Other Supply Captive Residential and SB Captive Industrial and Mpod Third Retail Trading

2011/12 Gas year

2.613 2.653

656 680

Data in Msmc

2010/11 Gas year

13 13

FINANCIAL RESULTS: N&T Network and Transportation

Volumes down 9.5% mainly due to warmer winter temperatures and to

deconsolidation of Sant’Agostino concession

Successful renewal bid for the municipalities of Offanengo and

Romanengo with a 12 years contract. Offlaga and Leno renewal bid

notices has been postponed and as a consequence they will be

included in the new ATO discipline.

EBITDA improvement due to constant monitoring of operating

expenses

9 Months 2011 P&L : Network & Transportation contribution

9M '11 9M '10 % Change IIIQ11 IIIQ10 % Change

Distributed Volumes (MScme) 127.1 140.5 -9.5% 19.9 19.1 4.1%

Direct end users (#K) 89.2 88.1 1.2% 89.2 88.1 1.2%

Pipeline (Km) 1,470.0 1,462.0 0.5% 1,470.0 1,462.0 0.5%

EBITDA M€ 4.4 4.1 7% 0.0 0.3 -100%

14 14

OUTLOOK 2011 Forecast

4Q 2011 P&L improvement vs. 3Q 2011 as effect of:

Seasonality ; E&P higher transfer price, S&S break-even.

Counterbalance of higher Robin Tax with Tax Consolidation regime

around the world

Presentation of the 5 years Business Plan within 1Q 2012

BP of Business Units ready and all projects are moving forward

Further development of International E&P and Storage projects

Share Capital increase at mid 2012

Consolidation of positive results

Improvement of market stability

Enlargement abroad of the Gas Plus share

12500

15000

17500

20000

22500

25000

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

I

n

d

i

c

e

€

Gas Plus FTSE Mib

15 15

Company Profile Annex

Shareholding Share information

N. of share: 44,909,620

Share price as of 30/09/2011: € 3.39

Share Price as of 8/11/2011: € 6.65

Mkt cap 8/11/2011: € 298.6 million

Italian Stock Exchange – segment MTA

Own shares as of 30/09/2011: 1,375,155

Share price performance

Group structure Management

Giovanni Dell’Orto

Cinzia Triunfo

Achille Capelli

Sandro Mezzi *

Davide Usberti

Paolo Tedesco

Gianmaria Viscardi

Chief Executive Officer

Chairman International Exploration & Production

Chief Financial Officer

Director of Network Business Unit

Planning, Development & General Affairs Director,

CEO of Padana Energia

Network Chief Executive Officer

Others groups executive

* ad interim

Director of E&P Business Unit

Fabio Guastella Responsible of Supply & Sales Business Unit

FINDIM GROUP SA,

15.0%

US.FIN SRL, 73.6%

Own Shares, 3.1%

Floating, 8%

16 16

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Gas

Plus. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking

statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve

known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those

expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the

potential exposure of Gas Plus to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts,

projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’,

‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’,

‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Gas

Plus and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this Report,

including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c)

currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g)

environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and

successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject

to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising

from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks,

project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates; and (m) changes in trading conditions.

All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements

contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking

statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither Gas Plus nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to

publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of

these risks, results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this

presentation.

Analyst Presentation Conf call November 14 , 2011ir.gasplus.it/file_upload/PresentazioneAnalisti14Nov2011.pdf · Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep $/Bbl - 9M 2011 $/Bbl - 9M 2010

Documents