บริษัท บางจากปิโตรเลียม จากัด (มหาชน) The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited Analyst Meeting 1Q2012 May 17,2012
บริษัท บางจากปิโตรเลียม จ ากัด (มหาชน)
The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited
Analyst Meeting 1Q2012 May 17,2012
www.bangchak.co.th 2
1Q2012 Highlights
Financial Performance
2Q2012 Overview
World Oil Situation
Agenda
Oil Market Outlook : Key Factors
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+ US • Will slowing jobs picture
spur more Fed stimulus?
+/- France • Socialist François Hollande
presidential election signaled a push back against German-led austerity policies.
- Greece • Uncertainty in the political election increased the risk of
insolvency and a possible exit from the euro zone
• Eye on parliamentary approval next month over 11 billion euro in extra spending cuts for 2013-2014 for more aid
- Spain • Economic slow down, while unemployment
rate still high
• Analyst expected Spain might need bailout in the next six month
+/- Iran nuclear • Eye on another round of talks between Iran and six world
powers in May 23 at Baghdad
• Start of EU sanction on Iran in July 1
• IEA estimate Iranian crude production would fall by 0.8-1.0 MBD to 2.6-2.8 MBD by mid summer, unless alternative buyers can be found
- Saudi Arabia [market is welled supply]
• 100 $/BBL is comfortable price for crude oil
• The kingdom is now pumping around 10 MBD and is storing 80 MB of crude to meet any sudden disruption in supply
+ Japan • No nuclear power plant online
since May 2012
• IEA expected the incremental demand of fuel would be 300 KBD in 2012
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130Dubai
WTI
Brent
• Unrest situations in MENA??? • Oil demand from Japan??? • Hurricane in 3Q2012?? •Winter time around year-end??
• Unclear European economic situation
• Political shifts in Greece and France
• Decrease demand due to seasonal effect
$/BBL
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130Dubai
WTI
Brent
2H2012: • Diesel 29-32 Baht/litre
(based on current tax and oil fund structure)
• Gasohol91 35-37 Baht/litre
Global Oil Market : Price Movement Forecasted DUBAI Price 2H2012: 105-112 $/BBL
Asian Oil Market : Cracks Movement
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$/BBL
-15
-5
5
15
25
Q1’11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1’12 Q2 Q3 Q4
Asian refinery margins will continue to be supported by relatively firm middle distillate and a stronger fuel oil crack
11.0
19.0
15.0 16.0
-1.0 -3.0
UNL95-DB GO-DB
FO-DB
Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35)
World Refinery Capacity
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A comparison of different sources of refinery capacity data
Sources
FACTS Global Energy
(FGE) – focus on Asia and M.E. –
JBC Energy
PIRA
IEA
Total refinery
capacity in 2011 (MBD)
N/A
91.80
92.05
92.80
Global CDU
capacity
addition in 2012 (MBD)
+ 1.80
+ 1.20
+ 2.57
+ 2.10
Asia CDU
capacity
addition in 2012 (MBD)
+ 1.50
+ 1.05
+ 2.00
+ 1.25
Global CDU Additional Capacity
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-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latin America
FSU
Africa
Middle East
China
East Asia
South Asia
Japan
ANZ
East Europe
MED
NWE
Canada
U.S.
- Former Soviet Union
- Australia/New Zealand
- Mediterranean
- Northwest Europe
MBD
USA..
Source: PIRA
World Refining Capacity – Global Oil Demand
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MBD
+2.57
+2.25
+2.08
+1.30
+1.11
Source : PIRA, Mar 2012 IEA, Apr 2012
Agenda
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1Q2012 Highlights
Financial Performance
2Q2012 Overview
Oil Market Situation
Operating Result
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Consolidated
35,759
47,610 40,172
2,270 3,714
1,108
1,424 2,438
561
1.14 1.77
0.42
1Q2011 1Q2012 4Q2011
Sales (MB)
EBITDA (MB)
Net Profit (MB)
EPS (Baht/Share)
33.1%
63.6%
71.2%
Refinery & Marketing Performance
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Unit : USD/bbl
Total GRM 12.53 13.77
15.18 16.59 Accounting GIM
1Q2012 1Q2011
6.61
9.32
9.62 6.68 5.65
5.51 5.36
0.71
-1.36
0.49 0.25
2.82 2.65 2.71
4Q2011
Base GRM
GRM Hedging
Inventory G/L
MKM
Refinery Performance 1Q2012
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1Q
20
12
Crude Run
MOGAS
JET
HSD
FO
Product Yield
LPG
Average Crude Run :101 KBD
Euro IV premium added up GRM
High premium FO exported to Japan
In 1Q2012…Strong GRM
Crude Selection
Local 46% FE
39%
Other 15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q2011 FY2011 1Q2012
62.7
85.7
101
KBD
13%
54%
12%
20%
1%
1Q201
FO HSD JET MOGAS LPG
To be High-Innovative refinery
Phase 1 1. New Innovation CCR : 12 KBD Continuous
Catalytic Reforming Unit
2. Co-Gen : 15 MW Co-Generation Power Plant
Objective
Refinery Performance 1Q2012
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Under detail design stage, Project Cost ≈ 37 Million USD
To decrease emission of Sulphur Dioxide from the Sulphur Recovery Unit.
Benefits Environmental Improvement (Reduction of SO2)
BOI Tax Privilege
Objective
Tail Gas Project
Feasibility Study, technology and licensor selection stage 3E Project: Phase 1
Benefits Add up GRM ≈ 1-2 $/bbl
To improve Efficiency, Energy, and Environment
Marketing Performance 1Q2012
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194 223
127
184
320
407
1Q2011 1Q2012
Industrial
Retail
27.2%
Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels
Unit : M.Liter/Mth
44.9%
14.9%
19 21
152 221
81
93 68
70 0.3
2
1Q2011 1Q2012
HSD
MOGAS
JET
FO
Other
14.8%
45.4%
All Product
3rd
45.8%
15.9%
13.7%
12.4%
6.0%6.1%
PTT ESSO BCP SHELL CALTEX OTH
Other
MOGAS
2nd
45.2%
14.2%
15.8%
12.7%
6.5%5.6%
PTT ESSO BCP SHELL CALTEX OTH
Other
as of Feb 2012
Sales volume increased by 27% YoY
E20 & E85 sales volume increased by 38.5% YoY
Rebranding service station: 24 stations
Launched Diesel Club Card
Continuous Growth
Market share of sales volume through service stations
Sales Vol. by product
30.7 32.5
19.2 16.0
9.4 12.2
0.2 1.1 59.5 61.7
1Q2011 1Q2012
E 85
E20
GSH95
GSH91
Total
Marketing Performance 1Q2012
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Gasohol Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)
152.3
221.2
1Q2011 1Q2012
Diesel Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)
9.6
13.3
1Q2011 1Q2012
E20&E85 Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)
45.2%
38.5%
3.7%
Bangchak Green Station
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BBF Performance 1Q2012
Unit: M.Baht 1Q2011 1Q2012
Sales 683 1,307 +624
EBIT 80 49 -31
NPAT 71 41 -30
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B5 Biodiesel Mandate
Sales increased by 91.36% from higher
demand in B100
Gross profit per liter of B100 decreased
from Baht 8.75 to Baht 2.60 because there was huge stock gain in 1Q2011
In 1Q2012…
Agenda
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1Q2012 Highlights
Financial Performance
2Q2012 Overview
World Oil Situation
Profit & Loss (Consolidated)
1Q2012 1Q2011 Δ YoY (%)
47,610 35,759 33.14%
3,714 2,270 63.61%
(558) (438)
236 272
(191) (210)
3,201 1,894
(751) (449)
2,450 1,445 69.55%
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4Q2011 Δ QoQ (%)
40,172 18.52%
1,108 235.20%
(587)
(252)
(195)
74
472
546 348.72%
1.77 1.14 55.26% 0.42 321.43%
Unit : M.Baht
Sales Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortization
Other FX and Impairment
Financial Cost
Pre-tax Profit
Tax
Net Profit
EPS (Baht/Share)
Refinery BU Performance
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1Q2012 1Q2011 4Q2011
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Base GRM 1,913 6.68 1,664 9.62 1,533 5.65
GRM Hedging 140 0.49 (235) (1.36) 67 0.25
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,534 5.36 954 5.50 192 0.71
Total GRM 3,587 12.53 2,383 13.77 1,792 6.61
Other Income 41 0.14 90 0.52 51 0.19
Operating Expenses (567) (1.98) (583) (3.37) (978) (3.60)
EBITDA 3,060 10.70 1,890 10.92 866 3.19
Adjusted EBITDA 1,526 5.33 936 5.42 674 2.48
Key factors:
Crude Run (KBD) 101.0 62.7 94.6
Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.12 30.68 31.17
DB ($/Bbl) 116.14 100.49 106.46
Company Only
YoY 61.9%
YoY 50.5%
Marketing BU Performance
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1Q2012 1Q2011 4Q2011
M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L
Net Retail Margin 546 0.81 423 0.73 529 0.84
Net Industrial Margin 211 0.38 65 0.17 207 0.43
Total MKM 757 0.62 488 0.50 736 0.67
Other Income 193 0.16 225 0.23 165 0.15
Operating Expenses (400) (0.33) (368) (0.38) (608) (0.55)
EBITDA 549 0.45 344 0.36 293 0.26
Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
o Retail 46.3 223 40.7 194 42.9 209
o Industrial 38.7 187 27.0 129 32.8 160
Total Sale Volume 85.1 410 67.7 323 75.7 369
Company Only
YoY 59.6%
YoY 55.1%
S/T loan decreased from repayment.
Other Current Liability, mainly Trade Account Payable soared because of increase both in oil price and volume.
Net Profit for 1Q2012 increased by 2,377 MB from Dec 31,2011
Financial Position
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Unit : M.Baht 31 Mar
2012
31 Dec
2011 Δ
Cash & Equivalents 3,533 4,020 -487
Trade Receivables 8,731 8,072 +659
Inventory and Other
Current Assets 24,777 19,202 +5,575
Property, Plant &
Equipment 26,766 26,959 -193
Other Non-Current Assets 3,381 3,350 +31
Short-term loans from financial
institutions 706 2,551 -1,845
Other Current Liabilities 17,166 11,990 +5,176
Long-Term Debt 15,890 16,030 -140
Other Non-Current Liability 1,096 1,153 -57
Total Liabilities 34,858 31,724 +3,134
Total Equity 32,330 29,879 +2,451
Total Liabilities and Equity 67,188 61,603 +5,585 Total Assets 67,188 61,603 +5,585
31 Mar
2012
31 Dec
2011 Δ
Cash decreased due to an investment in Asset and Short-Term loan repayment.
Trade Receivables increased because of increased in sales mainly from industrial
customers.
Inventory level 5.3 MBBL (increased by 0.9 MBBL from last year).
BBF Performance
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1Q2012 Utilization rate increased to 99%
- B5 Government Mandate
- Demand in B100 increased
Gross Profit decreased because there
was a huge stock gain in 1Q2011.
BA
LAN
CE
SH
EET Unit : MB 31 Mar
2012 31 Dec 2011
Cash and cash equivalents 163 96 +67
Inventories 165 207 -42
Total liabilities 946 782 +164
Total Equity 540 499 +41
Total assets 1,486 1,282 +204
Total liabilities and equity 1,486 1,282 +204
Inventory decreased due to lower storage of finished product and raw material.
PR
OFI
T &
LO
SS
Account Payable increased because of increased in Sales Volume and raw material price.
Cash increased due to Sales Volume soared
Unit: MB 1Q2012 1Q2011 ΔYoY %
Sales 1,307 683 +624 91%
Cost of Goods sold (1,252) (559) -693 124%
Gross Profit 55 124 -69 -55%
Other Income/Interest 1 0 0 121%
Operating Expense (7) (45) +38 -85%
EBIT 49 80 -30 -38%
Financial Cost (8) (8) 0 -4%
Tax (1) - (1) N/A
Net Profit 41 71 (31) -43%
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
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PROFITABILITY RATIOS 1Q2012 1Q2011
Net Profit Margin % 5.12 3.98
EBITDA Margin % 7.80 6.25
Return on Equity-ROE % 7.88 5.97
Return on Assets-ROA % 3.79 2.40
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Int. bearing D/E Ratio times 0.51 0.62
Net debt to EBITDA times 3.51 6.41
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio times 2.07 2.15
Quick Ratio times 0.86 1.01
AR Day days 16.69 18.49
DSCR times 10.02 6.50
Current Ratio, time
Int. bearing D/E Ratio, time
VALUATION RATIOS
Book Value per Share Baht 23.36 21.59
Earning per Share Baht 1.77 1.14
1.81 1.78 1.83 2.15 2.07
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.79 0.75
0.86
0.62 0.51
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bond Issue
Objective : General purposes
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Issue term 7.0 yrs 10.0 yrs
Issue date April 30,2012
Type Senior and Unsecured Bond
Issue size 2,000 MB. 1,000 MB.
Coupon (p.a.) Fixed: 4.92% Fixed: 5.35%
Maturity date April 30, 2019 April 30,2022
Underwriter Bangkok Bank
Rating A-/TRIS
Bond Holder Institutional investors and high net
worth investors
Quote (ThaiBMA) BCP194A BCP224A
Agenda
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1Q2012 Highlights
Financial Performance
2Q2012 Overview
World Oil Situation
2Q2012 Overview
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Refinery Business 30-Day Turn Around Period: MAY 25 - JUNE 23
Avg. Crude Run : 73 KBD,
After TAM crude run :110 KBD
Expected Base GRM : 6-7 $/bbl
High premium Fuel oil exports to
Japan
High hedging crack spread
Licensor selection for 3E Phase 1:
CCR/COGEN
2Q2012 Overview
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Marketing Business Target Sales Volume 1H2012: Growth 15%
Expected Retail Margin: 1.60 Baht/Litre
Rebranding service stations
Expansion of Green stations
Launch 5 pilot projects of Mini BigC : 2 projects in June and
3 projects in July
Project Update: Solar Power Plant
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Resumed Operation on April 2, 2012.
Expected COD: July 2012.
9.43 MW
34.2 MW
Phase 1 (Installed 44 MW)
Business Interruption from flooding
Project Cost : 4,200 M.Baht
Location : Bang Pa-In, Ayutthaya
Expected
Operating Revenue in 2012
Project Update: Solar Power Plant
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Phase 2 (Installed 50 MW)
Expected COD: December 2012.
Completed soil test & construction drawing
stage and site preparation
25 MW @ Bam Net Narong, Chaiyaphum
25 MW @ Bang Pa Hun, Ayutthaya
Expected COD: February 2013.
Started land-filled and dike construction for
flood protection system,
Phase 3 (Installed 75 MW)
PEA has approved for changing the
location and it would be in Eastern and
North Eastern part of Thailand.
Expected COD: At the beginning of
2014.
75 MW
Project Cost: 3,800 M.Baht
@ North Eastern & Eastern Part Project Cost:
5,700 M.Baht
Renewable Energy Learning Center
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Auditorium & Exhibition BioDome:
Algae oil producing demonstration
Project update: Renewable Business
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B100 capacity: 360,000 litre/day
Debottlenecked commissioning : May 2012
•Palm Plantation Learning Center in Rangsit
BBF
Palm Plantation
Project update: Renewable Business
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UBE
Capacity 400,000 litre/day
Under Construction:
Expected Commissioning: October 2012
Expected COD: December 2012
Study stage for modified plant: dual feedstock using cassava and molasses.
CAPEX in 2012
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CAPEX in 2012 M.Baht
Normal CAPEX Refinery & Marketing
2,000
Refinery Projects Tail Gas & VDU Heater Modification
800
New Business Solar Phase II (Installed 50 MW, Sale 32 MW)
3,800
6,600
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient,
and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document
does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from
sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts
no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses
contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses
may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results;
accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate
representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
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