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Analysis of Traffic Flows for TRACECA Countries and
Interregional Transport Dialogue between EU and NIS
121627 EuropeAid / 122883/C/SER/Multi
The EU’s TACIS TRACECA Programme for Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Romania,
Tajikistan, Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
Interim Report 3
April 2009
Projected funded by the European Commission
Project implemented by
Louis Berger SAS in association with WSP Finland
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Project Title: Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries
and Interregional Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS
Project Number: 121627 EuropeAid / 122883/C/SER/Multi
Countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan
EC Programme Manager Mrs Helisene Habart (until end of November
2008), Mr Roel Hoenders (Interim PM), Mrs Barbara Bernardi (from
January 2009), Mr Leonidas Kioussis (Section Chief/Transport)
EC Consultant
Name: Louis Berger SAS in association with WSP
Project Office Address: TRACECA Permanent Secretariat, 8/2 T.
Aliyarbekov Street, 1005 Baku – Azerbaijan
Tel: +994 12 498 56 73/ 493 60 07
Fax: +994 12 493 60 07
Head Office Address: Mercure III – 55 Bis Quai de Grenelle 75015
Paris France
Tel: +33 01 45 78 39 39
Fax: +33 01 45 77 74 69
E-mail: [email protected]
Team Leader: Ingrid Angela Gössinger TRACECA Permanent
Secretariat 8/2 T. Aliyarbekov Street 1005 Baku – Azerbaijan Tel +
994 12 498 56 73 Fax + 994 12 493 60 07
[email protected]
Date of report: April 2009
Reporting period: 1 July 2008 – 31 December 2009
Authors of report: Project Team
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
122883/C/SER/Multi Implemented by Louis Berger SAS and WSP
Finland
Interim Report 3
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Table of Content 1 Project Synopsis 5
2 Summary of achievements 7 2.1 Lot 1 – Traffic Forecasting and
Database 7 2.2 Lot 2 – Interregional Transport Dialogue 7 3 Project
Activities during the Reporting Period and Planned Project
Activities until the end of the Project 9 3.1 Lot 1 – Traffic
Forecasting and Database 9 3.1.1 Data collection process, training
of and support to Data Collection Experts 9 3.1.1.1 Special
training session for Ministry of Transport of the Republic of
Azerbaijan 9 3.1.1.2 Second Experts Working Session in Baku 9
3.1.1.3 Third Experts Working Session in Istanbul 10 3.1.1.4
Extraordinary meetings with Data Collection Experts 11 3.1.1.5
Outlook 11 3.1.2 Transport GIS Database “ECA- Data” 11 3.1.2.1
Outlook 13 3.1.3 Inventory and SWOT analysis – scoping the TRACECA
Transport Corridor 13 3.1.4 Transport Demand and Scenarios 15 3.1.5
Transport Modelling (“ECA – Trans”) 16 3.1.5.1 Outlook 19 3.1.6
Transport Forecasts and Identification of Bottlenecks 19 3.1.6.1
Outlook 21
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
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3.1.7 Coordination with other ongoing projects 21 3.1.8 Delivery
of hard- and software fulfilling IT requirements 22 3.2 Lot 2 –
Interregional Transport Dialogue 23 3.2.1 Support to Working Groups
within the “Baku Process” 23 3.2.1.1 Third Meeting of the Regional
EU - Black Sea / Caspian Basin Expert Working Group on Civil
Aviation at Lake Issyk-Kul 23 3.2.1.2 First meeting of the Working
Group on Transport Infrastructure in Brussels 24 3.2.1.3 Meeting of
the PS IGC in Brussels 26 3.2.1.4 Outlook 26 3.2.2 Organisation of
the Anniversary Conference in Baku 26 3.2.3 Organisation of First
Investors’ Forum 27 3.2.3.1 Outlook 28 3.2.4 Identification of
sustainable projects 28 3.2.5 Promotion of PPP 28 3.2.5.1 Outlook
30 3.2.6 Coordination with IFIs 31 3.2.6.1 Outlook 32 3.2.7 Support
to the progress report on TRACECA Action Plan 32 3.2.8 Support to
the development of a TRACECA Investment Fund 33 3.2.9 Support to
the development of a TRACECA Business Advisory Council 33 3.2.9.1
Outlook 33 3.2.10 Coordination and support to TRACECA / EU 33
3.2.10.1 Communication with TRACECA PS and National Secretaries
33
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
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Interim Report 3
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3.2.10.2 Coordination with and support to EC Programme Managers
34 3.2.10.3 Development of a database and maps of ongoing and
planned transport projects in the TRACECA region 34 3.2.10.4
Publishing of visibility materials 34 3.2.10.5 Support to the
Restructuring of the TRACECA Permanent Secretariat 35 3.2.10.5.1
Outlook 36 4 Deviation from original planning and reasons 38 5
Contract and Budget Administration 39 6 Annexes 40
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
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1 Project Synopsis
Project Title: Analysis of Traffic Flows for TRACECA Countries
and Interregional Transport Dialogue between EU and NIS
Project Number: 121627 EuropeAid / 122883/C/SER/Multi
Countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Contract volume: Project duration: Contracting Authority:
Consultant:
€ 3.187.200 24 months European Community, represented by
European Commission Louis Berger SAS in association with WSP
Project objectives: The overall objective of the project is to
facilitate regional cooperation in the field of transport, by
capacity building and training measures, development of transport
forecasts and investment appraisals in the TRACECA region and
through effective regional transport dialogue with the Black
Sea/Caspian Sea countries and their neighbours, in the framework of
TRACECA and the “Baku initiative”. Project purpose: The two main
purposes of the project are: I. Provide and develop planning and
performance measurement tools for effective trade and transport
forecast in the TRACECA countries; II. Promote regional transport
dialogue between the EU and the Black Sea/Caspian Sea basin
littoral states and their neighbours, and promote coordination of
regional transport initiatives and links with International
Financial Institutions. Those two purposes are covered by two
project components called Lot 1 and Lot 2.
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
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122883/C/SER/Multi Implemented by Louis Berger SAS and WSP
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Planned outputs: Lot 1 • Support to data collection process
provided and DCEs trained • Transport GIS Database “ECA-Data” set
up • Inventory and SWOT analysis established • Transport demand
determined and three scenarios built • Transport modelling
(“ECA-Trans”) • Coordination with other ongoing projects • Status
of hard- and software procurement updated Lot 2 • Working Groups
within the “Baku Initiative” supported • Ministerial Conference
organised • Sustainable Projects identified • Coordination and
Support to TRACECA/EU provided • Support to the progress report on
TRACECA Action Plan provided • Development of a TRACECA Investment
Fund supported • Development of Business Advisory Council supported
• Coordination with IFIs ensured
Project activities: Lot 1 • Establish and support data
collection process, recruit and train DCEs • Establish transport
GIS database “ECA-Data” • Prepare inventory and SWOT analysis and
develop a corridor model • Determine transport demand • Carry out
traffic forecasting • Perform transport analysis • Coordinate with
other ongoing projects • Develop a TRACECA database • Identify
bottlenecks and projects
Lot 2 • Organise Expert Working Groups meetings • Organise
Ministerial Conference on Transport Cooperation between EU-Black
Sea-Caspian littoral States
and neighbours • Identify and promote sustainable transport
projects and initiatives • Support to the coordination with TRACECA
National Secretaries, EC managers • Provide support to TRACECA
coordination activities • Private-Public Partnerships promoted and
2 coordination meetings with IFIs organised • Annual progress
reports on both TRACECA programme • Support to the EC programming
process
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Analysis of Traffic Flows in TRACECA Countries and Interregional
Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
122883/C/SER/Multi Implemented by Louis Berger SAS and WSP
Finland
Interim Report 3
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2 Summary of achievements The following highlights were achieved
during the reporting period: 2.1 Lot 1 – Traffic Forecasting and
Database • Data collection workshops were held in Baku and in
Istanbul. Furthermore, a special training session for
the Azerbaijan Ministry of Transport was arranged along with
extraordinary sessions in Kiev and Bucharest. Training of the data
collection experts (DCEs) has now been essentially completed.
• Building of the TRACECA Spatial database “ECA-Data” is nearly
complete (subject to further data
updates from the DCEs). The spatial geometries of the TRACECA
networks have been also defined and the attribute data has been
linked with the geometrics.
• The TRACECA freight model “ECA-Trans” has been calibrated. The
freight demand (the base year and
the forecasting years) was assigned on the networks with a view
to minimizing the system costs. The preliminary results have been
analysed.
• The hard and software related to the tender “Supply of GIS and
Traffic forecast software and equipment
for the TRACECA Permanent Secretariat in Baku” has been
delivered. 2.2 Lot 2 – Interregional Transport Dialogue • A report
about reform and restructuring of the TRACECA PS, including a new
PS structure, budget
reform suggestions according to the needs and new challenges of
the extension of the TEN-T networks towards ENP and Central Asian
countries has been delivered and presented at the 1st
Infrastructure WG October 2008 in Brussels.
• An outline for the TRACECA Investors’ Forum has been delivered
and IFIs, commercial banks and
operators contacted and visited to understand their investment
priorities and appetite for bankable infrastructure projects along
the Corridor.
• An evaluation mechanism for identification of strategic
infrastructure projects has been developed and
disseminated in form of a template to TRACECA countries by the
EC. • A status quo review of foreign investment and PPP projects in
the TRACECA arena has been
documented and a collection of countries’ transport strategies,
action plans, as well as national legislation was launched.
• A reference list of EC and other donor funded transport
projects has been compiled in order to provide
an overview of activities and players operating along TRACECA;
the information was also used for promotional materials.
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• Visibility methods and materials of TRACECA PS, including the
webpage and printed materials, have been assessed and newly
published (updated TRACECA map, “10 Years TRACECA MLA Poster”,
booklets, revision of website).
• Liaison with ongoing TRACECA projects and regularly promoting
TRACECA at conferences and
meetings on transport and infrastructure financing along the
TRACECA Corridor.
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3 Project Activities during the Reporting Period and Planned
Project Activities until the end of the
Project 3.1 Lot 1 – Traffic Forecasting and Database 3.1.1 Data
collection process, training of and support to Data Collection
Experts The availability of data is the basis for the planning
tools to be developed by Lot 1 (i.e. the database and the transport
forecasting model) in terms of network description, traffic
forecasts, analysis methods, and reporting systems. Local data
collection efforts are essential in providing representative and
accurate data to support the planning process (see status of data
collection per country in Annex 20). To support these efforts a
series of data collection workshops were held in Baku and in
Istanbul. Furthermore, a special training session for the
Azerbaijan Ministry of Transport was held along with a couple of
extraordinary sessions in Kiev and Bucharest. 3.1.1.1 Special
training session for Ministry of Transport of the Republic of
Azerbaijan A briefing session was held at the Ministry of Transport
in Azerbaijan on 8 July 2008. Head of Administration of the
Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Mr Javid
Najafov, opened the seminar. He was supported throughout by Mr
Elmar Farajov, Head of TRACECA and International Projects Unit. The
overall objective of this seminar was to brief the ministry about
the transport data collection activities underway. Some 20
participants covering all transport related sectors in Azerbaijan
attended (see list of participants in Annex 1). In all, four
technical sessions were held. They covered project objectives and
organisation, project asks and schedules, database structure and
management tools, and data collection definitions including
entities and geometric elements. The entities covered were roads,
rail, ports and waterways, airports, investment projects,
socio-economic and general data, and background geographical data
for visualisation purposes. The attributes describing each of these
entities were specified in terms of traffic flows and technical
parameters of the infrastructure. The main outcomes of the seminar
were two-fold. The Ministry of Transport acquired a better
appreciation of the TRACECA transport database currently under
development and its input data requirements. And as a by-product
the briefing session furthered co-operation and dialogue between
the project’s national data collection expert and the authorities
responsible for the transport data. This reinforces good data
collection procedures that are vital for the success of the
database. Furthermore, the ministry was represented at the 2nd
TRACECA spatial data management working session on data collection
that was held in Baku on the following two days. 3.1.1.2 Second
Experts Working Session in Baku The second in a series of data
collection working sessions was held at the TRACECA Permanent
Secretariat in Baku on 9 and 10 July 2008. The overall objective of
this two-day seminar was to reinforce good data collection
procedures with a new focus on Internet data entry techniques. Mr
Rustan Jenalinov, TRACECA Secretary General, Mr Akif Mustafayev,
National Secretary of Azerbaijan, and the Project Team Leader
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opened the seminar. Some 30 participants, a two person team
comprising the data collection expert and a representative from the
relevant supporting authority, from each of ten countries attended
(see list of participants in Annex 2). Six technical sessions were
held. General matters related to project tasks and schedules as
well as past experience in data collection, in terms of problems
and solutions, were discussed first. This then lead to more
specific technical aspects including the TRACECA spatial
web-server, data collection web forms and geometric data aspects.
Main conclusions of the seminar focused on improving data
collection procedures in terms of: • Institutional arrangements •
Data aspects (e.g. node definitions and transport modes) • Scope •
Data collection priorities • Data entry procedures • Management of
data tables • Sustainability of data acquisition In terms of
dissemination, all participants were provided with the PowerPoint
presentations (Lot 1 Tasks and TRACECA Spatial Database: Geometrics
and Node Types) as well as a listing of Internet links to the web
forms that can be used for testing the data entry tables. The
sustainability of data acquisition was stressed in terms of
continuation, progress, and development of the entire TRACECA
transport system. 3.1.1.3 Third Experts Working Session in Istanbul
The third in a series of data collection working sessions was held
in Istanbul on 17 and 18 November 2008. The overall objectives of
this two-day seminar were to • Provide an overview of the transport
forecasting model and its capabilities • Bring all countries up to
speed with the data collection and to focus on future data
distribution tools • Prioritise the identification of national
projects and • Ensure sustainability and outline future targets.
Some 30 participants, for the most part a two person team
comprising the DCE and a representative from the relevant
supporting authority, from each of ten countries attended. In all,
ten technical sessions were held. Day 1 was devoted to freight
transport modelling while Day 2 dealt with spatial data management.
The modelling component described the TRACECA transport model
(“ECA-Trans”) in terms of software, structure (supply, demand and
functions) and usage including a live demonstration of the model’s
usage (network modifications and traffic assignment procedures).
The database component (“ECA Data”) focussed firstly on the
priority need to identify national transport projects particularly
in reference to strategic transport axes. Then the progress in data
collection by country was described leading to a round-table
discussion of experiences and definition of solutions to expedite
data collection. Two presentations (Turkey and Romania) gave
examples of “best practise”. This was followed by a description of
future tools to make data entry by the DCEs as convenient as
possible. Main conclusions of the seminar focused on improving data
collection procedures in terms of the need to speed up data
collection efforts and the identification of ways to achieve this.
As a priority, strict deadlines
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were established for the identification of national projects and
for the provision of data to be used for fine-tuning the transport
forecasting model. The Team Leader and the Project’s Lot 2 team
used the opportunity to disseminate initial information on
forthcoming requirements for preparation of attractive
infrastructure project proposals. Based on the March 2008 decision
by EC to extend TEN-T to ENP- and Central Asian countries, all
TRACECA countries were to prepare and submit eligible proposals for
infrastructure projects. The eligibility in this context is
referring to • location on one of the (TRACECA / South-Eastern)
corridor’s strategic axes, • bankable projects and attracting the
engagement of investors and IFIs, • possible PPP finance models and
• preference for international/regional projects. Participants, who
also included some National Secretaries (Moldova and Romania) and
Assistants to National Secretaries (Armenia, Turkey, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan), were informed about preparatory steps
and the template (see Annex 9) to be filled out for each specific
investment project proposal. In terms of dissemination, all
participants were provided with the PowerPoint presentations by
mail and hardcopy. 3.1.1.4 Extraordinary meetings with Data
Collection Experts An extraordinary session was held on 23
September 2008 for the DCE/Regional Coordinator in Kiev. The
purpose of the visit was to discuss data collection progress and
possible problems. The meeting was held at the Ministry of
Transport of Ukraine and the participants were the data collection
expert Mr Leonid Chupryn, Expert of National Secretariat of PS, Mrs
Tetyana Dyachenko, and Lot 1 database expert Mr Matti Pesu. Prior
to the meeting, Mr Chupryn and Mrs Dyachenko had provided a good
and extensive dataset. In the discussion it was agreed that the
state of the data collection and the quality of the provided data
are both good. It was also agreed, that the last missing part of
the data (pipelines) would be provided soon. No major problems
regarding the data collection were presented. 3.1.1.5 Outlook Any
further individual training will be carried out, if required, on an
as needed basis. 3.1.2 Transport GIS Database “ECA- Data” During
the reporting period, the following tasks have been carried out: •
Training of the local data collection experts has been provided by
means of meetings and seminars • Continuing the support for local
data collection experts in all possible questions and problems that
they
have faced during data collection • Continuing the validation of
the incoming data from the DCEs • Giving feedback relying on the
issues that have come up during validation and progress
tracking
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Transport Dialogue between the EU and NIS 121627 EuropeAid /
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• Building the TRACECA Spatial database in terms of defining the
spatial geometrics of the TRACECA networks and linking the
attribute data with the geometrics
• Providing the TRACECA network data into the transport
modelling process • Preparing the Internet server for database
dissemination • Tracking the progress of each TRACECA country’s
data collection situation. Each country is assessed on
a continuing basis on the data quantity and quality provided.
The data collection status as of 1 December 2008 was as
follows:
o Data collection is almost complete and the data quality good
in Romania, Ukraine and Georgia.
These countries have performed their data collection in a very
rigorous way. Majority of the data has been gathered and clear
reports about the status for the missing data have been provided.
Some data is still missing from Romania and Georgia, while Ukraine
has gathered it all.
o Data collection is partially done but still in progress while
data quality is good in Turkey, Bulgaria,
Azerbaijan, Moldova. Some entities of the data are thoroughly
collected, but big gaps can also be found. Data has been collected
in a systematic fashion.
o Some data has been delivered but the data quality is low in
most cases in Tajikistan, Armenia,
Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. These countries have provided some
data but some critical lacks in amount and quality have
occurred.
o No data has been submitted from Uzbekistan. There are
continuous significant problems in getting
the data collection underway.
Exhibit: Workflow for data collection and building of the
database
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3.1.2.1 Outlook During the upcoming period, the following tasks
will be carried out: • Validation, progress tracking and feedback
for the remaining data inputs from the DCEs • Providing the
remaining parts of the TRACECA network data into the transport
modelling process • Input of the traffic flows modelling results to
the spatial database • Installing the spatial database to be
disseminated via internet server
Exhibit: System Architecture for Data Management and
Dissemination 3.1.3 Inventory and SWOT analysis – scoping the
TRACECA Transport Corridor In order to assist in identifying
transportation issues to tackle and actions to include in the
TRACECA development plans a review of existing transport conditions
for each sector (land, sea and air) as well as the overall economic
situation was carried out. SWOT (the measurement of strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities
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and threats) was the tool used. This provided input to
developing the transport model and identifying strategies for
improving freight mobility. There are important points to keep in
mind about the context of the SWOT analysis undertaken. First, it
was international/regional in scope. Urban transport systems,
therefore, were excluded from consideration. Second, the SWOT
analysis serves as a preliminary assessment of existing and
expected, future conditions with the view to giving an initial
overview of transportation issues facing the TRACECA Region. Main
sources of information for this analysis were existing reports,
expert advice, and ongoing continuous data collection and
evaluations. The analysis focused on macro-economic conditions,
regional transport in general, rail transport, sea transport, road
transport, and combined transport including terminals and ports. As
a conclusion, summary sheets were produced for each. Table 1:
Positive Negative
Strengths Weaknesses
The region’s strategic position at the crossroad for transit
traffic between Europe and Asia and connections to international
corridors (e.g. pan-European)
Poor technical condition and level of maintenance of the
available transport infrastructure
High level of availability of transport infrastructure in most
countries
Level of Service inc congestion & traffic bottlenecks
Insufficient coordination among transport modes and between
countries (inc tariff policies)
Poor safety record
Lack of efficient and trained staff
Low quality transport network connections to the corridor in
some countries
Opportunities Threats
Infrastructure improvements The Region being circumvented by
international traffic flows (e.g. the future implementation of
North-South transport corridor by Russia-Iran-India)
New services Delayed reforms, restructuring and modernization of
the sector or some of its elements
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Development of intermodal logistic chains Regional conflicts
which interrupt the transport services with neighboring
countries
Restructuring of the sector through privatisation and
public-private partnership (including BOT)
Affordability
Table 1 SWOT Analysis, Regional Transport 3.1.4 Transport Demand
and Scenarios The aim was to develop a base for forecasting future
trade and transport flows. Future scenarios that were developed in
terms of exogenous and endogenous factors would drive the model
forecasts and provide a realistic frame for the outputs. In
addition to a “basic” scenario, two alternative scenarios were
developed; a “minimum” and “high oil price” one. In the minimum
scenario the growth rates are smaller mainly because the transition
process towards exploiting market mechanism is delayed. In the
“high oil price” scenario the growth rates will increase in oil
exporting countries and will decrease in oil importing countries.
The most important assumption behind the basic scenario is that in
the most TRACECA countries the positive development, the transition
process, still continues and spreads to the whole area. The
investment climate still improves. Foreign direct investments (FDI)
now concentrate on energy sector and in natural resources. In the
basic scenario it is assumed that in these sectors the FDI
continues and acts as a catalyst for other related FDIs. The
decrease of corruption, liberalisation of the economy, the
development of legislation, the integration to the international
economy e.g. through WTO membership, the cheap and productive
labour force, the privatisation of production, the structural and
institutional reforms in the economy, in government and in banking
sector will lead to the basic scenarios high growth rates. The
growth creates possibilities to entrepreneurship. The production
diversifies. In the minimum scenario the basic scenarios positive
transition process stops or even partly retreats. The progression
of this process can be followed on an annual basis by transition
indicators of EBRD and by Transparency International’s Corruption
Perception Index. The high oil price scenario is based on the
International Energy Agency (IEA)’s estimate that during next 7 – 8
years it is needed daily 37.5 million barrels of new oil to the
market. One third of this fulfils growing demand and two thirds
fulfils present productions drained oil resources. However, new
schemes can produce only 25 million barrels. Over demand of the oil
will raise the oil prise from which we already have experienced. If
the oil price in 2011 – 2030 is over € 200 per barrel, the
productivity and the GDP growth rate in the oil producing and
exporting TRACECA countries will be at least 2 percentage points
higher than in the basic scenario. In the oil importing TRACECA
countries growth rates will be 0.25 – 0.5 percentage points lower
compared to the basic scenario. High oil prices of this scenario
will change the world and TRACECA countries in many ways. The
prices of the many products and services connected to the oil will
be higher. Travelling and international trade will decrease
compared to the basic scenario. This is a medium and a long term
scenario. In a very long run winners are probably those countries,
which adapt best to the energy prices.
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3.1.5 Transport Modelling (“ECA – Trans”) The freight model
utilises STAN software. The model components are networks, the
demand and the functions. Networks represent the infrastructure and
services that form the supply side of a transportation system: •
modes which specify how transportation activities are performed •
nodes and links which represent the spatial layout of the
transportation system and • transfers which capture the intermodal
trans-shipment operations characteristic of such systems.
The demand for transportation is defined by the particular
products or groups of products to be analysed, the production and
consumption zones that make up the region under study, as well as
the demand for each product, that is, the quantities of each
product to be moved from one zone to another. The functions link
the supply and demand components together. Functions capture the
criteria used to determine how traffic is moved over the network,
and include factors such as transport costs, risk of damage,
reliability, price of goods (commodity groups), lead time and
frequency of vessels with regular departures. The following modes
are defined in the model. Table 2:
Transport mode code in model Road L Rail R TRACECA Port mode P
Truck-Ferry, Ro-Ro F Rail-Ferry, Ro-Ro E Bulk (sea) B Oil Pipeline
O Gas Pipeline G FRISBEE port mode1 H FRISBEE port mode2 X FRISBEE
Lo-Lo, (sea) A FRISBEE Flight U FRISBEE Inland Waterway I FRISBEE
Car and Truck ferry C
Table 2 Transport modes within ECA-Trans During the reporting
period, the following tasks have been carried out: • Completing the
networks of each TRACECA country (nodes, links and transfers).
These were then
joined to “FRISBEE” road network that covers Western Europe,
Scandinavia and part of Russia
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Table 3: ECA-Trans road network
• Defining the sub-areas of TRACECA countries • Defining the
functions of the TRACECA freight model • Disaggregating the country
to country matrices (based on the UN Comtrade Statistics) to
TRACECA
sub-areas by commodity groups on the basis of the population of
sub-areas and for oil the location of oil refineries
DestinationOrigin Armenia AzerbaijanGeorgia KazkhstanKyrgystan
Moldova Tajikistan TurkmenisUzbekistanBulgaria Romania Turkey
Ukraine Total
Armenia 48 4 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 22 79Azerbaijan 285 106 7 0 131 10
7 6 80 388 38 1 059
Georgia 74 92 15 0 0 3 72 3 62 6 125 57 509Kazakhstan 15 226 44
268 31 157 21 385 1 747 348 623 2 866
Kyrgystan 0 2 1 163 0 24 2 28 2 1 27 4 254Moldova 2 5 4 24 1 0 0
3 14 156 28 129 366
Tajikistan 0 0 0 28 3 0 19 3 118 4 175Turkmenistan 169 369 101
133 2 0 0 45 189 3 492 4 499
Uzbekistan 2 27 6 319 65 4 10 154 406 418 1 412Bulgaria 16 11 98
24 1 24 1 3 4 1 748 112 2 041Romania 7 5 198 36 0 427 9 53 911 2
498 424 4 568
Turkey 695 408 697 132 107 72 281 176 1 568 2 350 6 486Ukraine
137 422 312 828 38 671 40 133 211 596 626 2 390 6 404
Table 4: Trade flows between TRACECA countries (million USD in
2006), Source: UN Statistics
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Table 5: Freight flows between TRACECA countries in 2006, except
gas (1000 tons) • Calibrating the TRACECA freight model based on
the data available so far • Assigning the freight demand (the base
year and the forecasting years) on the networks with a view to
minimizing the system costs
Figure 6: Assigned transport volumes on rail network and on
maritime links (Rail-ferry and Ro-Ro), export and import of TRACECA
countries in 2006, all products except gas, 1000 tons/a. Domestic
transport not included.
• Analysing the preliminary results. The freight demand matrices
of 2006 (flows) for every commodity in the system are based on the
trade flow data and are in line with the respective economic
forecasts.
destination origin Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazkhstan
Kyrgystan Moldova Tajikistan TurkmenistanUzbekistan Bulgaria
Romania Turkey Ukraine Total
Armenia 0 17 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 17 37Azerbaijan 0 536 41 13 0 359
3 2 8 175 713 58 1 910
Georgia 43 26 8 0 0 2 8 2 164 6 220 36 514Kazakhstan 1 58 42 457
67 180 9 626 3 2 097 251 1 285 5 079
Kyrgyzstan 0 0 0 59 0 11 0 19 1 1 25 2 119Moldova 1 2 2 14 1 0 0
2 8 89 23 73 215
Tajikistan 0 0 0 22 4 0 11 3 67 3 109Turkmenistan 20 156 217 14
2 0 0 99 95 22 624
Uzbekistan 2 4 4 100 21 2 6 6 249 92 486Bulgaria 7 6 177 14 1 20
1 2 2 376 1 438 61 2 104Romania 1 1 438 7 0 501 0 1 7 1 103 2 821
482 5 362
Turkey 0 169 97 187 41 24 23 74 50 590 709 328 2 292Ukraine 116
209 249 312 17 753 60 58 69 1 176 804 2 663 6 486
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0200 000400 000600 000800 000
1 000 0001 200 0001 400 0001 600 000
Road Rail Sea Oil pipe
Ton mileages in the whole systemmillion tonkm
2006
2020
2030
Figure 7: Preliminary results: ton-km of export and import of
TRACECA countries (domestic transport excluded) • Reporting and
presentations (e.g. Istanbul seminar) The model has been checked
and it is functioning. Due to missing data the calibration has been
limited to determining that the orders of magnitudes of the traffic
volumes and costs are correct. The transport costs for several
transport routes have been studied and compared to (confidential)
data available to the consultant. The results are consistent. The
final calibration of the model is possible only after sufficient
data in terms of consistency and coverage has been collected to
support the calibration. 3.1.5.1 Outlook During the upcoming
period, the following tasks will be carried out:
• Updating the data (from the experts of TRACECA countries) to
the freight model • Fine-tuning the model • Carrying out new
assignments (the base year and the forecasting years) • Continued
analysis of the results • Installing the Spatial Web Server at the
PS in Baku
3.1.6 Traffic Forecasts and Identification of Bottlenecks Based
on and integrated with the modelling work, current and future
(based on the increases in travel demand produced by the transport
demand scenarios) bottlenecks are pinpointed and examined through
the use of performance indicators; primarily, mobility – speed,
delay and reliability. Preliminary results were presented at the
Istanbul Seminar.
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The following Figure depicts three routes:
• Route 9: China/Kazakhstan border – Astana – Moscow – Minsk, by
Train • Route 10: China/Kazakhstan border – Almaty – Actybinsk –
Kiev, by Train • Route 11: China/Kazakhstan border – Almaty – Aktau
– Baku – Ilyichevsk – Kiev, by train and Rail-Ferry
Figure 8: Comparison of Alternative Routes The transport costs
along these routes are summarised below.
Table 9: Total transport time by route
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China/Kaz. Border - Astana -Moscow - Minsk
China/Kaz. Border - Almaty -Actyubinsk - Kiev
China/Kaz. Border - Almaty -Aktay - Baku - Ilyic. - Kiev
Kiev
Route9 Route10 Route11
hour
lead time handling time at ports
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3.1.6.1 Outlook Analysis of the transport conditions will
continue as part of the modelling work based on the new assignments
programmed as noted above during the fourth reporting period. 3.1.7
Coordination with other ongoing projects The work is being
coordinated with other relevant ongoing (e.g. “Improvement of
Maritime Links between TRACECA and TEN Corridors”) and past
projects (e.g. “TEN Naxis”) as far as possible through direct
contacts to coordinate and utilize methods developed and data
sources that are applicable. Representatives from relevant
supporting authorities including a few TRACECA National Secretaries
also attended the 3rd DCE Working Session in Istanbul. This
provided an opportunity to obtain first hand information about
ongoing projects in the respective TRACECA country. Furthermore,
the TF Project seeks to keep close coordination with activities of
CAREC and ADB. In this context, project representatives were also
invited to the “7th Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Regional
Economic Cooperation” from 19 to 21 November 2008 in Baku, which
put a strong focus on transport and general environmental and
supply issues. Within the CAREC region and cooperation system there
is a trend to move “from Planning to Projects” so that the CAREC
countries, the private sector, and multilateral partners have
programmed USD 14 billion for priority investments. By 2020, the
six CAREC Corridors are expected to have improved to adequate
transport standards. An urgent complementary measure mentioned is
the “one stop shop” approach for border procedures and other trade
and transit issues, as without such smooth operation the benefits
from improved infrastructures would be seriously diminished. The
“Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on CAREC Countries
and Key Markets” was also a key topic addressed in the scope of the
conference. The Project sent via email useful links to TRACECA
National Commissions and forwarded some interesting information for
further consideration on • ADB Handbook on PPP
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Handbooks/Public-Private-
Partnership/default.asp • CAREC Transport Sectors for comparison
with to be established Priority Axes in the TRACECA
Corridor • Cooperation on legal developments in transport
regimes • Participation in CAREC Partnership Forum The Project
suggests the PS to attend these meetings, in particular when they
are organised in Baku. The Project also liaised with the
“Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Project” implemented through
the National Coordination Unit in Baku. The core topics are the
approximation of legislation as stipulated by the PCA Agreement as
well as programming and supervisory measures for direct budget
support. In the context of legal approximation there are the
following transport sectors addressed • Road – new regulations and
secondary legislation needs to be developed to complement the
law
adopted in April 2008, such as working conditions of drivers,
working time mentoring through ‘tachographs’ as well as technical
inspection of vehicles.
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• Railways – modernisation of infrastructure and rolling stock
and approximation of legislation to the acquis are pending issues,
especially when taking into consideration the importance of the
strategic East/West Axis.
• Maritime – rules for inspection of ships and prevention of
maritime pollution need to be adopted as well as the monopoly of
Caspian state shipping companies terminated, in order to allow for
the participation of private sector in a market with extremely high
growth potential.
• Air – adoption of ICAO procedures for investigation of
incidents and accidents as well as the “policy of open skies” need
to be adopted by national legislation.
• Services of general economic interest – especially
(public/private) road transportation services need improvement to
international standards, be it the underpinned legislation or the
quality and availability of services.
The Project contacted the PCA team in order to start
communication and cooperation between TRACECA in general and the PS
in particular. Such practice is suggested in future for PS
practice. The first practical participatory steps by the Projects
are scheduled for January 2009 on Road Transport regulations. 3.1.8
Delivery of hard- and software fulfilling IT requirements The
tender “Supply of GIS and Traffic forecast software and equipment
for the TRACECA Permanent Secretariat in Baku” (Publication
Reference: EuropeAid/126287/C/SUP/AZ) was successfully launched and
concluded. Delivery details are as follows: • GIS database software
delivered - Mapinfo Professional and MapXtreme.Java.Edition •
Transport Forecasting software - VISSUM software delivered for use
in forthcoming projects • Equipment for the TRACECA PS - all
equipment has been delivered except for a copy machine, Canon
iR3035N, which has been communicated to the supplier for action.
A printer was mistakenly delivered instead. The process is underway
to exchange the delivered printer with the offered copy
machine.
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3.2 Lot 2 – Interregional Transport Dialogue 3.2.1 Support to
Working Groups within the “Baku Process” In general, the Project
prepares the Working Group meetings and is responsible for the
organisation and all logistical and financial aspects. Its team
also manages all last minute changes for flights and hotel
bookings, handles post-deadline replies by National Commissions and
also organises as well as revises all translations from and to
Russian/English languages. EC officials of DG EuropeAid, DG RELEX
and DG TREN in close cooperation with the Team Leader draft the
agendas, choose the speakers, and most importantly suggest the
themes for further Working Group meetings. The Project’s key and
short term experts made substantial contributions to the meetings,
including all fields according to Lot 1 and Lot 2 as well as others
such as on finance and institution building aspects. Up to the end
of this reporting period, four Working Group meetings were
organised (October 2007 in Chisinau on Aviation, May 2008 in Odessa
on Maritime Safety, July 2008 at Lake Issyk-Kul on Aviation,
October 2008 in Brussels on Infrastructure). 3.2.1.1 Third Meeting
of the Regional EU - Black Sea / Caspian Basin Expert Working Group
on Civil
Aviation at Lake Issyk-Kul A strong commitment for strengthening
safety and aviation cooperation was the main outcome of the third
meeting of the TRACECA (EU Black Sea/Caspian Basin) Expert Working
Group on Civil Aviation which was organised by the European
Commission on 15 July 2008 at Lake Issyk-Kul in the Kyrgyz
Republic. The meeting was attended by representatives from TRACECA
countries (see list of participants in Annex 4) as well as from the
TRACECA Permanent Secretariat and the European Commission. The
Working Group took note of the significant progress made. This
includes several agreements between the EU and the partner
countries of the region (Armenia, Kazakhstan) which bring existing
bilateral air services agreements in line with Community law by
removing nationality restrictions. Such a horizontal air services
agreement with the Kyrgyz Republic was signed on 1 June 2007. These
agreements enhance the legal certainty of operations between the EU
and the partner countries in the region and are a first step toward
closer aviation relations. The Working Group also discussed the
proposal of a European "Common Aviation Area" with the neighbouring
countries of the EU. The Common Aviation Area provides the
opportunity to join the single aviation market and the Community
aviation structures and aims at the approximation of aviation
regulatory rules. The EU is negotiating such an agreement with
Ukraine, and Georgia has also expressed its interest in a Common
Aviation Agreement. The meeting confirmed the need to enhance and
maintain high levels of aviation safety and security. Views were
exchanged on the possible ways to enhance aviation safety in the
region, including through technical assistance projects co-financed
by the EU. The European Commission announced the launch of the new
project "TRACECA Civil aviation safety and security" in 2009 with a
budget of 5 million Euro.
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The Expert Working Group concluded that a fully pan-European
approach is needed to ensure the long-term sustainable development
of aviation relations between all countries involved. To this end,
a tailor-made network of regional and bilateral relations which
takes into account the interests of each country should be further
developed. A first step in this regard should be the enhancement of
safety standards. The Project translated all participants’
presentations and distributed them partly by email and partly by
hardcopy prior to the meeting. The organisation and logistics of
the meeting were handled in team by the Project’s Logistics and
Finance Officers from Baku who also masterly handled the host
country’s last minute decisions and information about the hotel
venue. Participants were not content with the host country’s choice
of conference venue and suggested that no more one-day meeting
should be organised at such a distant location. 3.2.1.2 First
meeting of the Working Group on Transport Infrastructure in
Brussels The first meeting of the Working Group on Transport
Infrastructures with the Black Sea - Caspian Basin countries was
organised by the European Commission on 8 October 2008 in Brussels.
DG AIDCO and TREN co-chaired the meeting. Infrastructures experts
from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and Uzbekistan as
well as from the TRACECA Permanent Secretariat and the TRACECA
National Secretaries attended the meeting. Representatives of EBRD
and EIB also participated. Representatives from Tajikistan did not
participate in the Working Group meeting (see list of participants
in Annex 5). The meeting took note of the following presentations:
• Extension of TEN-T: new developments, planning, implementation of
infrastructure projects, • European Neighbourhood Investment
Facility – objectives, methodology, conditions for identification
of
projects and next steps, • Future development scenarios driving
the model forecasts and preliminary results from the modelling
effort: overview of the transport bottlenecks for the TRACECA
Corridor (presented by TF Project, see presentation in Annex
6),
• Approach towards the TRACECA Business Advisory Council
(presented by TF Project, see Annex 7) • TRACECA and PPP –
Infrastructure development opportunities (presented by TF Project,
see Annex 8) • IFI (EBRD/EIB) presentations – the banks' project
and financing approach to TRACECA, • The Moldova PPP show-case for
the TRACECA Corridor, • A PPP show-case by Kazakhstan. The
following conclusions and actions were decided upon, based on the
discussions held at the session of the Working Group. The
participants 1. Elaborated the first steps of a methodology for
axis/projects identification and prioritisation (data needs,
feasibility and bankability). This methodology is based on the
conclusions from the High Level Group (HLG) on the extension of the
major Trans-European transport axes to the neighbouring countries
and regions, as well as on the TRACECA Long Term Strategy;
2. Agreed to establish, at a first stage, a short list of
priority axis/projects, based on the above-mentioned
HLG methodology and TRACECA Strategy, updating the list of
projects enclosed to the Report of the HLG. Contributions were
expected to be sent to the European Commission before the end of
2008;
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3. Understood the possibility for the EC to support preparatory
stages for pre-identified projects, in order
to submit them for potential financing by the IFI's (mainly EBRD
and EIB); 4. Exchanged views on the relevance of the Public Private
Partnership (PPP), as offering opportunities for
the development of transport infrastructure; 5. Expected
contributions from the Neighbourhood Investment Facility to pool
grant resources of the
Community and the Members States to leverage loan financing, for
eligible countries; 6. Took note of the European Commission's
intention to call for a second meeting of this working group in
the light of progress in the identification of the TRACECA
infrastructure projects and in view of the preparation of a TRACECA
Investors Forum. A tentative date could be on February 2009.
The Project’s presentation on the BAC and PMU initiated a heated
discussion on the reform and new requirements of the TRACECA
Permanent Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Commission amongst
National Secretaries, the Secretary General and the European
Commission. With the consent of several TRACECA countries and the
EC, the Project underlined that the new PS should act efficiently
as a recognized international transport corridor authority that is
able to • stimulate co-operation among TRACECA member countries •
promote optimal integration of TRACECA with TEN • identify factors
constraining the development of trade and transport systems •
collect effectively transport volumes data as currently conducted
by Lot 1 of the Traffic Flows Project
through a TRACECA wide Database Collection Experts network •
promote TRACECA projects as means to attract funding from IFIs and
private investors • define the scope of the initiatives, activities
and accountabilities • create a realistic programme for PPP
development • develop guidelines for legal approximation for PPP
legislation • manage the programme as a cross-border regional
strategy endorsed by Governments, IFIs and EC • identify priority
axes based on 2020 transport volume projections • create MoUs to
reinforce the commitment of key stakeholders to PPP development and
implementation
on suitable PPP projects • integrate national PPP units into the
development process • monitor progress of projects • disseminate
information to potential operators, IFIs, private sector banks and
government agencies • and support syndication of investment
consortia and act as a catalyst for the establishment of
implementation agreements. Despite the conclusions of the Astana
IGC Meeting, the TRACECA Investment Fund is not taken into
consideration at this stage as this would require even more
responsibilities and skills within the PS. This would include the
full infrastructure project cycle, including contractual,
procurement and financial management aspects which cannot be
covered by the present setup of the PS. Based on the conclusions
and decided actions of the 1st Infrastructure Working Group, the
Project was tasked by the European Commission to elaborate the
first steps of a methodology for axis/projects identification and
prioritisation (data needs, feasibility and bankability). This
methodology is based on the conclusions from the High Level Group
on the extension of the major Trans-European transport axes to the
neighbouring
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countries and regions, as well as on the TRACECA Long Term
Strategy. At a first stage, the Project created this template and
an introduction for a short list of priority axis/projects (see
template and instructions in Annex 9), based on the HLG methodology
and TRACECA Strategy. In its 19 December communication to all
TRACECA countries, this template was sent to all TRACECA countries,
including Turkmenistan. The EC expected the countries’ replies
before the end of January 2009. 3.2.1.3 Meeting of the PS IGC in
Brussels The Project also organised for the PS the Meeting of the
PS IGC in Brussels and the Project Team attended the morning
session of the 9 October. The Traffic Flows Project was the only
TRACECA Project invited to this meeting. The Project prepared a
presentation about the project status (see Annex 15) which the Team
Leader did not present as scheduled for the second part of the
meeting. The Project team (including the Director, Team Leader, Lot
1 and 2 Managers, Finance Expert, Logistics and Finance Officers)
did not feel welcome as the PS’ main liaison project at the meeting
(e.g. it did not receive PS document folders that were prepared for
all participants) and the Project Director and Team Leader
announced their team’s absence to the Secretary General prior to
the start of the session. After prior clearance with DG AIDCO and
DG RELEX the Project team did not attend the second part of the
meetings. During the afternoon the SG prepared the distribution of
a very biased evaluation of the project prepared by a recently
dismissed Traffic Flows project expert. The distribution of this
document was stopped by the EC and its utilisation was very
negatively commented by several National Secretaries. 3.2.1.4
Outlook The EC also requested the Project to support preparatory
stages for pre-identified projects, in order to submit them for
potential financing by the IFIs. After submission of projects by
countries and efficient desk research, the Project’s expert team
will undertake country visits during the final project semester. A
follow-up meeting of the Infrastructure Working Group was decided
to be held in Romania in February 2009 in the light of progress in
the identification of the TRACECA infrastructure projects and in
view of the preparation of the first TRACECA Investors’ Forum.
According to its terms of reference, the Project will organise the
meeting, invite appropriate speakers and prepare substantial
topical presentations (a presentation on TRACECA and Private Sector
Banks is foreseen). 3.2.2 Organisation of the Anniversary
Conference in Baku The Anniversary Conference of TRACECA Member
States held on 4 December 2008 in Baku, was organised and hosted by
the Depositary Country, the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Team Leader
was invited to several coordination meetings with the Government of
the Republic of Azerbaijan, including with the Deputy Prime
Minister, the Minister and Deputy Ministers of Transport and
representatives of the Deputy Prime Minister’s office. Almost daily
communication and meetings were conducted with the National
Secretary of Azerbaijan, Mr Akif Mustafayev, throughout the last
weeks before the Anniversary. A series of ad hoc meetings with him
and informal consultations led to the solution of several issues
concerning the participation of some countries, the agenda, the
documents and the question of their adoption. It is due to Mr
Mustafayev’s transparent and open work style as well as his fast
access to highest government offices that made the Project’s
cooperation and liaison with the EC successful.
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The Ministry of Transport organised a working session one day
prior to the Anniversary Conference which was opened by Deputy
Minister of Transport, Mr Musa Panakhov, and chaired by Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Kalaf Khalafov. During this working
session all countries could address their suggestions for revisions
to the official draft documents. The working session was led in an
efficient diplomatic manner. The EC through the Traffic Flows
Project offered financial support for the events, yet the
Government of Azerbaijan decided to cover all the costs for the
preparations and conduct of the conference, including the
invitation to all participants (see list of participants in Annex
10). 3.2.3 Organisation of the First TRACECA Investors’ Forum The
planning and preparation for the first TRACECA Investors’ Forum was
started during the reporting period. The Forum is scheduled to take
place in the last reporting period. Together with the Finance
Expert, the Team Leader contacted and also met with IFIs (EBRD,
IBRD, EIB, ADB, WB, IFC, IDB), commercial banks (Macquarie Bank,
Sumitomo Mitsu Bank, VTB King William, Royal Bank of Scotland,
Renaissance Capital, ABN AMBRO, BNP Paribas Paris, Societe General,
Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau, Bank Austria, Raiffeisen Bank,
ING) and contractors (Bouygues, Alcatel, Bechtel London, Mott
MacDonald, Hochtief, Balfour, KBR California, Skanska, Impregilo
Milan, Basic Element Moscow, Strabag) to prepare them for the
upcoming forum and their participation and raise their appetite for
TRACECA projects. The Team Leader and Finance Expert went to
Washington, London, Kiev and Brussels for their meetings. Further
meetings with commercial banks in Moscow, Vienna and London are
scheduled. The results of these meetings were presented at the
first Infrastructure Working Group as well as at the next
Infrastructure Working Group meeting in Bucharest. The Forum will
provide a platform for investment opportunities in the development
of the Trans-European Networks’ extensions on the Southern
Corridor, TRACECA route. It will enable an exchange of views on the
EC’s strategy for enhancement and renewal of infrastructure in the
Highways, Railways, Maritime and Aviation sectors. It will enable
attendees to meet and network with influential decision makers in
order to debate and understand the project opportunities available.
Speakers and attendees will include Government Ministries, Banks,
Contractors, Developers, and Infrastructure Operators. At the Forum
the Project will present the future plans for sustainable
infrastructure investment to enable the TRACECA Corridor to compete
effectively and win increased market share through improved
co-modality, cross border logistics and upgraded infrastructure.
The focus is on achieving a high quality, competitive,
environmentally sustainable Southern Corridor, overcoming both the
problems and challenges facing the route. The Project will seek to
present a unified and sustainable infrastructure investment
strategy which addresses future market requirements of different
modes and builds momentum to implement the necessary investments to
make this vision a reality. It will aim to develop a realistic,
long-term plan for financing each project with a strong business
case as the foundation for the framework of projects, which require
funding. The Forum will explain the benefits of the TRACECA
Corridor. Speakers will take account of the technical challenges
and the need for interoperable systems to improve cross-border
services and keep operating costs
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down whilst proposing enhancements to the Corridor’s technical
advantage in relation to reliability, safety and security. There
will be a strong emphasis on developing an integrated
pan-continental approach. The Project will debate the large
financial outlays required, including the potential for PPP as the
mechanism for making cross border intermodality a reality on the
TRACECA Corridor and address in detail the financing, planning and
delivering of major infrastructure projects on the route and
explain the business models for achieving funding, including the
rules and procedures for accessing EU, IFI and Private Sector
funds. The Forum will discuss how the current economic climate will
affect the traffic forecasts and growth potential of the Corridor.
The Project will also take account of the role of each Government
in financing infrastructure projects and also the need to achieve a
sufficiently long term approach from Politicians to attract Private
Investors. Market confidence will need to be building through
effective consolidation, cooperation and the will to reconstruct
the TRACECA Corridor. The role of Infrastructure managers will be
vital in ensuring in delivering quality, cost effective services to
operators in order to maximise customer retention. 3.2.3.1 Outlook
A second round of contacts is planned to introduce the countries’
priority infrastructure projects to the above mentioned IFIs,
commercial banks and operators during the forth reporting period.
3.2.4 Identification of sustainable projects As mentioned above,
initial information was presented during the DCE seminar in
Istanbul in November 2008. In December, the EC formerly requested
the TRACECA countries through the MoTs, NS and country
representations in Brussels, to fill out the template (see Annex 9)
on infrastructure priority projects by end of January 2009. The EC
also proposed that the proposals would be presented at the
Bucharest Infrastructure Working Group meeting in February 2009 and
selected bankable proposals should be chosen for presentation at
the 1st TRACECA Investors’ Forum. The application template provides
for a straight forward and thorough review of all technical
parameters that would characterize an infrastructure project. A key
criterion is the location of the proposed project at one of the
“strategic axes” of the TRACECA Corridor. However, such axes have
not been agreed upon, and it will be difficult to objectively
assess if a proposed project is located at a strategic axis or not.
The Project had suggested defining such axes similar to the CAREC
axes and sub-axes scheme (see Annex 14). Based on the computation
of data collected from DCEs as well as from publicly available
sources, the Traffic Flows Project’s Lot 1 team will provide
forecasts until 2020, which should make decisions on interregional
strategic axes transparent and adoptable within the TRACECA
environment. This issue was also discussed in a meeting between PS
and Project Experts. 3.2.5 Promotion of PPP The Project presented a
report (see Annex 11) and also prepared a presentation for the
first meeting of the Working Group on Infrastructure in Brussels.
The purpose of the report was to provide an overview of the
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value of Public Private Partnership (PPP) in the context of
transport infrastructure projects of TRACECA. It provided •
confirmation of the commitment to PPP of the EC and IFIs • the
challenges faced by TRACECA regarding successful PPP implementation
• an overview of PPP and examples of where PPP has been used
previously in TRACECA member
countries • the status of PPP environment in TRACECA countries •
an action plan to develop PPP capability Significant progress has
been made since the launch of TRACECA in 1993, and latterly TACIS,
to create and develop transport infrastructure in the Caucasus and
Central Asia. This has resulted in improved regional development
and transport connections to the European TEN-T corridors. PPP is a
strategy to be considered to enable the EU and TRACECA to identify
and package “bankable” regional infrastructure and transport
projects which are capable of being financed by an IFI or on a
co-financing basis. The challenge for the EC, TRACECA member
countries, IFIs and the other stakeholders is to create the
regulatory, legal, market, financial and political environments in
which PPP can be successful. This challenge is in the context of
both national and cross-border projects requiring the co-ordinated
development of initiatives. To develop effective PPP strategies
requires the development of industry knowledge, governance, and
regulatory, legal and institutional frameworks to meet the
following challenges: • TRACECA countries have limited experience
of implementing PPP strategies. The challenge is to
develop within each country a PPP unit which acts as a knowledge
hub and which is the first point of contact for advice
• Cross-border projects require PPP development to be
consistence across all TRACECA member countries. The challenge,
supported by the EC1, is to develop a consistent and co-ordinated
regional approach to PPP strategy, knowledge, governance, and
regulatory, legal and institutional frameworks. Of particular note
is the importance of creating transparent and effective concession,
foreign investment and PPP Law. This will be critical for
cross-border projects
• SPV (and Promoter) needs to ensure that the consortia has the
strength in all aspects of managing the concession, including risk
mitigation throughout the asset life-cycle
• Assembling an effective SPV with appropriate funding will
ensure that a viable and robust business model delivers the
concession agreement. The challenge for IFIs and governments is to
create an investment environment with transparent and mitigated
risk.
The Project recommends the creation of an environment for IFI
investment as public and private investment in PPP projects is
dependent on there being clear and transparent risk and reward on
the projects. This is assessed on a project-by-project basis
through due diligence and risk analysis. The EIB2 states that “the
role played by finance in a PPP is key to the risk sharing
arrangement between the public and private sectors. In most major
PPPs, the private sector is responsible for raising the finance
necessary to construct and operate infrastructure. The public
sector’s payment is based on the services delivered, in terms of
volume, quality or a combination of these factors. This means that
if the private sector
1
http://ec.europa.eu/ten/transport/external_dimension/doc/2005_12_07_ten_t_final_report_en.pdf
“Networks for Peace and Development: Extension of the major
trans-European transport axes to the neighbouring countries and
regions”, November 2005. 2
http://www.eib.org/attachments/press/2008-005-fact_sheet_epec_en.pdf
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cannot meet service standards, its investment is at risk. This
gives the financial incentive to ensure that risks are well
managed, and service quality is maintained.” For IFIs to invest in
PPP projects the political, legal, technical, financial and
environmental risks need to be clear and transparent. This requires
effective risk identification with probabilistic impacts defined
and risks allocated to those stakeholders best places to manage
them. The key challenges are: • detailing the generic PPP risks,
country specific and project specific risks on TRACECA projects •
developing robust risk management tools and processes for national
and cross-border projects • developing a generic process for the
identification of PPP project risks (and opportunities) that can
be
applied to TRACECA projects • developing risk management
processes to procure effectively PPP projects and • clearly
understanding the capacity of the stakeholder to carry risk and who
is best placed to manage
them. The Project also suggested a way forward and further
development of the PPP strategy for TRACECA which requires the
following actions that are dependent on constructive discussions
with key stakeholders, particularly related to • defining the
medium- and long-term activities to be undertaken to develop PPP
capability in TRACECA • creating a master programme of TRACECA PPP
initiatives, actions and accountabilities to ensure the co-
ordinated implementation of initiatives in the region and across
stakeholder groups • identifying the dependencies linking the
decision-making processes of stakeholders to ensure
integration • identifying the constraints imposed by
stakeholders related to, for example, unchangeable processes
and
time scales • assigning accountability to specific stakeholder
groups the development of the processes, documentation
and commitments to deliver consistently successful PPP projects.
3.2.5.1 Outlook The Project proposed a high-level indicative
programme over the short-term. 1st quarter: • Release of a national
PPP programme of projects • Detail the formal IFI strategy for
involvement in TRACECA 2nd quarter: • Detail the programme of
regulatory and legal development in support of PPP in TRACECA
countries • Develop Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) as required
between key stakeholders e.g. appropriate
IFIs, EC and TRACECA country central Government Ministries, and
other to be defined • Create a PPP Unit in all TRACECA countries •
Implement PPP skills development sessions in all TRACECA countries
• Conduct inter-country staff sharing and knowledge transfer
sessions across projects and across countries • Implement an
external marketing and communication strategy for TRACECA for
PPP
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3rd quarter: • Develop standardised approach for TRACECA PPP
projects via standardised PPP process, standardised
risk allocation models, project selection criteria and tendering
processes • Continue with PPP skills development and transfer A
medium- and long-term programme is required to formalise the
development of PPP and assign accountability. In order to gain an
overview of the status of PPP laws in TRACECA countries, the
Project initiated a survey in December 2008 and requested the
Project’s DCEs to collect and submit by end of December 2008 the •
National Transport Strategy • National Action Plan • Status of
concession and PPP relevant laws. The Project will compile such
information and complement missing data from public and web
sources. The results should be presented at the Bucharest PPP
Workshop in February 2009 for review with the participants and to
raise awareness for necessary intervention - especially in the
light of EC focus on regional / trans-national infrastructure
projects. 3.2.6 Coordination with IFIs The Project prepared a
report which was presented to the EC and TRACECA countries with the
purpose to provide an overview of the respective transport
strategies, investment priorities, investment criteria and current
and planned projects of the major International Financial
Institutions who are operating in the TRACECA region (see Annex
12). Four IFIs were covered – the World Bank Group (IBRD, IDA,
IFC), the European Investment Bank and European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development. For each IFI, the following was
included: • Summary infrastructure and transport strategy for the
TRACECA network • Project cycle as it relates to investment
projects in each of the TRACECA member countries; • Investment
appraisal considerations, covering investment conditions, criteria
and main products; • A list of current and future projects which
each IFI is currently involved in financing or is considering
financing in the future.
Although much has been achieved through the TRACECA programme,
there is a desire on behalf of the EU and TRACECA to make further
and quicker progress, in particular, in the identification and
packaging of “bankable” regional infrastructure and transport
projects which are capable of being financed by an IFI or on a
co-financing basis. The paper provided an overview of the current
financing activities for investments in the TRACECA region for
infrastructure and transport. For the four areas covered for IBRD,
IFC, EIB and EBRD, the following was noted:
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• IFI Transport strategies and priorities in the region.
Information has been taken and summarised from the relevant
transport strategy documents made available by the IFIs on their
web site. The information given is at a high level only;
• IFI Project Cycle. Each IFI discloses its outline project
cycle. The project cycle is important to understand
as it impinges on how TRACECA needs to be able to work closely
with IFIs, especially at the early stage in the project cycle for
any TRACECA originated project which is to be presented to an IFI
for consideration. The objective is for TRACECA to identify and
prepare a project concept which would be acceptable to an IFI for
subsequent carrying out of a full feasibility study leading to the
preparation of a comprehensive project appraisal report for use by
the decision making bodies of the IFI. Apart from IBRD/IDA, full
examples of project reports and outputs from each stage are not
disclosed on the website. In contrast, IBRD/IDA publishes key
documents such that the reader can see each of the main outputs
during the project cycle at the front end leading up to the
investment decision, for example, the required content for a
project appraisal report which is to be considered for financing by
the Board.
• IFI Investment considerations and products. A summary is
provided of the main criteria which the
respective IFI takes into account when considering whether or
not to invest in a project together with the types of products.
• IFI Infrastructure and Transport projects. For each IFI, a
list of current, past and pipeline of future
projects is provided. All project data was sourced from IFI
websites. The project data is provided in country order. Projects
are also identified which involve co-financing between two or more
IFIs. In addition, there are a number of projects which have
involved close cooperation between IFIs and the EU. Lastly, there
are also projects identified which form part of the TEN-T transport
network and the Pan European corridors.
3.2.6.1 Outlook The Project will continue its cooperation and
information exchange with IFIs and will connect to the country
teams in each TRACECA country during the country visits on priority
infrastructure investment projects. It will further lobby TRACECA
in IFIs action planning and connect the National Commissions with
IFIs. The Project will also keep including IFIs on its
participants’ and speakers’ lists at EC funded TRACECA events.
3.2.7 Support to the progress report on TRACECA Action Plan In the
framework of the implementation of the strategy of IGC TRACECA for
the period up to 2015, the PS will send out its regular request to
MLA countries in January 2009 for providing feedback on progress
with various activities, as stipulated by the Action Plan
2008-2009. The template requests two inputs per action, firstly
information on implementation progress, and deviations from
original plan including reasons. Besides the review of
implementation progress, the template also requests numbers for
import, export, and transit volumes, as well as passenger transport
quantity per transport mode for 2008. In order to ensure
comparability, measurability and feedback at highest standards by
countries, the Project further developed the template without
turning it into a complicated, user-unfriendly form that is
comparable to a simple log-frame approach. The template format was
sent to PS.
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3.2.8 Support to the development of a TRACECA Investment Fund As
already stated in our last Interim Report and again supported by
the assessment of PS reform needs, the establishment of an
Investment Fund should be targeted only at a later stage for
TRACECA. It first needs to implement a robust Project
Implementation Unit (PMU) that is capable of identifying, preparing
and lobbying projects and their implementation by IFIs and the
private sector. It would also need a professional fund
administrator, probably supervised by an international board of
bankers and representatives of the EC. Also, the current financial
and economic climate does not favour the establishment of such a
fund and no funding sources can be expected in the near future. As
noted above, the legal bases as well as business standards need to
be first improved and guaranteed in the region. 3.2.9 Support to
the development of a TRACECA Business Advisory Council The Project
addressed an extensive part to the assessment and possible shape of
a Business Advisory Council (BAC) in its last Interim Report in
which the types of services and the scope of consultative work as
well as its operation as a “virtual body”, and not the creation of
an additional institution, were suggested. The involvement of IFIs
in the BAC shall be used to participate in the identification of
bankable projects in order to build an initial success story of
first infrastructure projects that will create a pull-effect for
further development and implementation of professional investment
plans. In our further assessment (see Annex 7) in the scope of the
planned reform and restructuring of the PS it was underlined that
first the new PS structures need to be in place that can
successfully coach and interface with such a body with regard to
TRACECA activities and priorities before a serious attempt for
setting up a BAC. The Project recommends gradually extending
TRACECA Infrastructure Working Group meetings step-by-step to a BAC
and start increasingly involving the business sector to these
meetings. 3.2.9.1 Outlook In the scope of the forthcoming
activities of the TRACECA Reform Group for reshaping the PS as well
as the establishment of the BAC will be discussed in a wider forum
and through an iterative process. The first reform group meeting
under the Baku conclusions (see Annex 19) is planned for February
2009 in Bucharest. 3.2.10 Coordination and support to TRACECA / EU
The Project coordinated with the TRACECA PS and all National
Commissions, EC and EC funded new and outgoing TRACECA projects as
well as EC programmes in MEDA countries. 3.2.10.1 Communication
with TRACECA PS and National Secretaries Liaison with the TRACECA
PS and its staff has been manifold. Meetings with the PS were
formal and irregular; no regular information exchange with SG and
his team on substantial corridor issues was possible, without the
SG’s prior consent and only in the presence of a protocol writer.
Informal information exchange was possible with the SG’s assistant
(exchange of documents, contacts to TRACECA experts, website
management) and some of his experts (e.g. new TRACECA map,
translation of technical terms into Russian).
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The Project team communicated on a daily basis and on various
levels with the National Commissions (National Secretaries, their
assistants and experts) and exchanged views on possible
restructuring of the PS. 3.2.10.2 Coordination with and support to
EC Programme Managers The Team Leader held regular contacts to DG
EuropeAid, DG TREN, DG RELEX, EC Delegations in Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Turkey, and Georgia, as well as
National Coordination Units in almost all TRACECA countries and the
two Europa Houses in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The EC Delegation
in Baku and its Head of Delegation, Ambassador Alan Waddams, were
particularly involved during the preparations of the Baku
Anniversary Conference in December. There was substantial interest
by the British Embassy in Baku in TRACECA and the Team Leader
discussed TRACECA’s involvement in the “Caspian Maritime Shipping
Initiative”. The Economic as well as Political Dimensions of the
OSCE (Headquarters in Vienna and Baku Office) also were briefed by
the Team Leader about TRACECA and its activities. 3.2.10.3
Development of a database and maps of ongoing and planned transport
projects in the
TRACECA region A list of EC and IFIs funded ongoing and planned
Technical Assistance and Infrastructure projects by has been
developed and updated during October and November 2008. This list
was also used for the new TRACECA Map with project references as
well as the poster. Updating the status of EC funded projects is an
ongoing effort. During the reporting period a new TRACECA map in
two versions (with and without information about EC funded
projects) was designed and prepared. The Project had experienced
difficulties during the preparation period, because some TRACECA
countries did not provide the changes in their maps in time and the
PS was withholding the electronic version until such last inputs
were provided. The map from Kyrgyzstan, for example, happened to
arrive three days after the design of the TRACECA map was redone by
the Project (design and copying from scratch) and basically ready
for printing. Thus, the Project again had to make last minute
changes before releasing the map for production. After the Baku
Conference, two mistakes were communicated to the Team Leader by
National Commission representatives, which were corrected. The
newly revised map can be downloaded or requested in hardcopy from
the Project.3 3.2.10.4 Publishing of visibility materials A poster
entitled “10 YEARS TRACECA MULTILATERAL AGREEAMENT 1998-2008” was
prepared during October and November 2008 and printed for the Baku
Ministerial Conference. The history of TRACECA conferences,
memberships, Working Group meetings as well as EC funded Technical
Assistance and Investment Projects are listed on this poster (Annex
16). Additionally, the following items were prepared and produced
for the jubilee event:
3 Requests can be sent by email to Mr Jafar Samandov, Lot 2
Assistant, at [email protected].
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• booklet entitled “Strategy of the Intergovernmental Commission
of TRACECA for Development of the International Transport Corridor
EUROPE-CAUCASUS-ASIA (TRACECA) for the Period up to 2015”
• booklet entitled “Action Plan for Implementation of the
Strategy of IGC” • CD containing all the above mentioned
information was issued by the Project including:
o relevant EC documents o official TRACECA documents o TRACECA
maps (see Annex 17 and 18) o TRACECA EC project list
For printing the maps, Strategy, Action Plan and CD, the Project
received offers from three different printing houses. The most
favourable offer was accepted based on price and time frame of
production. Quantities ordered were • TRACECA map with projects
1.500 units (1.000 units folded and 500 units unfolded); • TRACECA
map without projects 1.500 units (1.000 units folded and 500 units
unfolded); • Poster 10-YEAR TRACECA MULTILATERAL AGREEMENT 500
units; • Action Plan for 2008-2009 300 units; • IGC Strategy 300
units; • CD with information 100 units.
The visibility materials and CDs partly were distributed among
the participants of the Ministerial Conference, TRACECA National
Secretaries, PS and EC Delegations in Kazakhstan, Ukraine Georgia,
Moldova, EC TRACECA Projects as well as in EC DG RELEX, EuropeAid
and TREN. The remainder will be used for further publicity and
dissemination (215 maps each