Analysis of NARCCAP results for Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin Basin S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCIC T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012
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Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin
Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin. S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCIC T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC. NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012. Study area. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Analysis of NARCCAP results for Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia extremes in the Canadian Columbia
BasinBasin
S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCICT.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCICH. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC
NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012
Study area
Q: Why do extremes matter?A: Users are planning for them!
Indices of extremes‣Specialized indices (fire, wind, rain-on-snow)‣Return periods (5, 10, 25, …) – fit GEV‣CLIMDEX: 27 indices
- annual (monthly) resolution- e.g. # days above 90th %-ile, warm spells, annual
days with precipitation > 10 mm, etc.- officially adopted by WMO → ETCCDI- similar to STARDEX- R and Fortran code available- based on daily Tmin, Tmax, and P (from Frich et al. 2002)
2050s GCM Anomalies
2050s Annual TX90p, TN10p Ratios
TX90p
TN10p
2.6 2.0 2.0 1.7
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
2050s Seasonal TMax, TMin Anomalies
TXx
TNn
2.2 0.7 2.6 2.6
2.9 1.6 3.6 3.6
2050s Annual R95p Percent Anomalies
4 7 6 5
4 6 6 2
2050s Seasonal RX1Day Anomalies
2.8 1.6 -0.1 2.6
-0.2 1.0 0.3 2.5
RX1Day
Summary
1. People in BC need information on climate extremes for adaptation planning
2. RCMs are useful for this3. Mid-century: more extreme warm events, precipitation
extremes4. Seasonal projections are necessary5. Other indices of extremes: report (soon) at
Data sources• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project
(NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb)• NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J.
Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc.
• CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181.