Analysis of Industrial Wind Turbines MEM 390 INTERNSHIP PRESENTATION Kofi Amoako-Gyan Sponsor: Greylock McKinnon Associates 09/20/2012 1 Picture: http://http://www.evwind.es/2012/09/10/wind-energy-could-meet- many-times-worlds-total-power-demand-by-2030/23205/
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Analysis of Industrial Wind TurbinesMEM 390 INTERNSHIP PRESENTATION
Kofi Amoako-GyanSponsor: Greylock McKinnon Associates
09/20/2012 1Picture: http://http://www.evwind.es/2012/09/10/wind-energy-could-meet-many-times-worlds-total-power-demand-by-2030/23205/
The world demands more energy every year
2
Source: http://www.wikinvest.com/image/Worldenergy.gif
09/20/2012
Introduction
The world demands more energy every year
3
Source: http://www.wikinvest.com/image/Worldenergy.gif
09/20/2012
Introduction
The world demands more energy every year
4
Source: http://www.wikinvest.com/image/Worldenergy.gif
09/20/2012
Introduction
Industrial wind turbines(IWT) are powered by the wind
• Renewable Source• Zero emissions
509/20/2012
Introduction
• Expensive• Alleged health and safety concerns• Alleged negative effect on property values
Environmental concerns about wind energy are on the rise
6Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2071816/TOM-UTLEY-The-day-I-realised-Im-lonely-outsider-country.html09/20/2012
Introduction
Better siting criteria
Given both the benefits and the concerns raised about wind energy,
my 390 requirements was to come up with an appropriate siting criteria that suits both sides of the divide
709/20/2012
Introduction
8
Review of Work
09/20/2012
Global installed capacity
Drivers for sustained IWT
installations
Onshore versus
offshore construction
Wind resource
assessmentEfficiency of IWTs
Economics of installation
Reported health issues
Introduction
Online Reporting criteria
909/20/2012
Introduction
GLOBAL INSTALLED WIND POWER CAPACITY (MW) - REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
End 2010
New 2011 End 2011
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST Cape Verde 2 23 24
Morocco 286 5 291
Iran 90 3 91
Egypt 550 - 550
Other 137 - 137
Total 1065 31 1093
Global Installed Capacity
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Statistics,2011
1009/20/2012
Introduction
Global Installed Capacity
ASIA
China 44,733 18,000 62,733
India 13,065 3,019 16,084
Japan 2,334 168 2,501
Taiwan 519 45 564
South Korea 379 28 407
Vietnam 8 29 30
Other 69 9 79
Total 61,107 21,298 82,398
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Introduction
Global Installed CapacityEUROPE Germany 27,191 2,086 29,060
Spain 20,623 1,050 21,674
France 5,970 830 6,800
Italy 5,797 950 6,747
UK 5,248 1,293 6,540
Portugal 3,706 377 4,083
Denmark 3,749 178 3,871
Sweden 2,163 763 2,970
Netherlands 2,269 68 2,328
Turkey 1,329 470 1,799
Ireland 1,392 239 1,631
Greece 1,323 311 1,629
Poland 1,180 436 1,616
Austria 1,014 73 1,084
Belgium 886 192 1,078
Rest Of Europe 2807 966 3,708
Total 86,647 10,282 96,618
Of which EU-27 84,650 9,616 93,957
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Introduction
Latin America & Caribbean Brazil 927 583 1,509
Mexico 519 354 873
Chile 172 33 205
Argentina 50 79 130
Costa Rica 119 13 132
Honduras - 102 102
Dominican Republic - 33 33
Caribbean 91 - 91
Others 118 10 128
Total 1,996 1,207 3,203
North America USA 40,298 6,810 46,919
Canada 4008 1267 5265
Total 44,306 8,077 52,184
Global Installed Capacity
1309/20/2012
Introduction
Global Installed Capacity
Pacific Region
Australia 1,990 234 2,224
New Zealand 514 108 622
Pacific Islands 12 - 12
Total 2,516 342 2,858
World Total 197,637 41,237 238,354
Global Installed Capacity
09/20/2012 14
Industrial Wind
Turbine Capacity
Incentives and Subsidies
09/20/2012 15Source: KPMG, 2011, Taxes and Incentives for Renewable Energy
Incentives and Subsidies
09/20/2012 16Source: KPMG, 2011, Taxes and Incentives for Renewable Energy
09/20/2012 17
Wind Potential Criteria
Resource Assessment
09/20/2012 18
Wind Potential for the United States
Source: National Renewable Energy lab, DOE
Resource Assessment
09/20/2012 19
Wind Exclusion Zones
Source: National Renewable Energy lab, DOE
Resource Assessment
09/20/2012 20
Wind Potential for the United States
Source: National Renewable Energy lab, DOE
Resource Assessment
09/20/2012 21
Offshore Wind Resource
Resource Assessment
Source: National Renewable Energy lab, DOE
2209/20/2012
Offshore compared to onshore construction
Resource Assessment
Offshore Onshore
More wind offshore Relatively less wind
Restrictions: Shipping lanes, oil and gas platforms, military zones and conservations
Restrictions: Conservations, opposition from neighbors
Potential: 4,150,000 MW Potential: 10,400,000 MW
Lower Turbulence Relatively high turbulence
High Cost of construction Relatively low cost
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Continental US Wind Facts at a Glance
Resource Assessment
Source: American Wind Energy Association
Total U.S. Utility-Scale Wind Power
Capacity, Through 1st Quarter of 2012
48,611 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in
2011
6,816 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed
in 1st Quarter of 2012
1,695 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity Under
Construction as of 1st Quarter of 2012
8,916 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in Previous Years (including small-wind)
2010 5,216 MW
2009 10,010 MW
2008 8,366 MW
2007 5,258 MW
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Resource Assessment
Source: National Renewable Energy lab, DOE
Continental US Wind Facts at a GlanceNumber of States with Utility-Scale
Wind Installations, 2011
38
Number of States with over 1,000 MW
of Wind Installations, 2011
14
U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Onshore
(Source: NREL)
10,400,000 MW
U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Offshore
(Source: NREL)
4,150,000 MW
Top 5 States with Wind Power Capacity Installed, through Q1 2012
1. Texas 10,648 MW
2. Iowa 4,419 MW
3. California 4,287 MW
4. Illinois 2,852 MW
5. Minnesota2,718 MW
http://www.nrel.gov/news/features/feature_detail.cfm/feature_id=1927
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Issues Regarding Site Selection
• . Land use restrictions or zoning issues, such as hunting rights, grazing rights, and cultural considerations limit the site
• Wildlife issues may also restrict construction due to avian and wildlife migration, spawning grounds, wetlands and surface water concerns
• Noise or visual impact restrictions may affect placement of turbines
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10233108-54.html
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Transportation Logistics
http://piximus.net/vehicles/transportation-of-the-giant-wind-turbine
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Transportation Logistics
http://www.nhwag.co.uk/construction.htm
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Transportation Logistics
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Source: (University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, Dept. of Aeronautical and Astronautical Eng)
Weather Limitations
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Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Weather LimitationsLow Temperature: The mechanical properties of structural elements such as steel and composite material change at low temperatures.
Steel becomes more brittle; its energy absorbing capacity and deformation prior to failure are both reduced
Low temperature also increases the stress on composites. The stress can result in micro-cracking.
These micro cracks reduce both the stiffness and the impermeability of the material, which can contribute to the deterioration process .
Snow: It can infiltrate almost any unprotected openings where airflow can find its way.
On the other hand, snow could also obstruct these openings and prevent normal circulation of air
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Challenges of Turbine Decommissioning
Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Source: http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/print-edition/2011/04/29/unused-wind-farm-raises.html
3209/20/2012
Health Issues related to IWTs
Challenges of Wind
industry
The range of health grievances has previously not been described in any medical literature.
However , there have been an increase in the number of health related complaints made after the turbines are operational.
To the point that Health Canada has decided to study the possible connection between noise generated by the towering turbines and adverse health effects reported by people living close to them in conjunction with Statistics Canada.
Results to be published in 2014.
Examples of alleged symptoms : Severe chronic sleep deprivation, severe frequent headaches, tinnitus , ear pressure sensations , hyperacusis, nausea, motion sickness, vertigo symptoms, and balance disturbances, High blood pressure etc..
3309/20/2012
Property value Issues related to IWTs
Challenges of Wind
industry
While no national study has been done, An independent study
conducted by Appraisal Group One (AGO) accessed the existing
literature on wind turbine impact on sales, an opinion survey of
realtors to learn their take on the impact of wind turbines in their
sales area and a sales study which compared vacant residential lot
sales within the wind turbine farm area to comparable sales
located outside of the turbine influence.
Reduces by about 20-30%
AGO is an appraisal company specializing in forensic appraisal, eminent domain, stigmatized properties and valuation research.
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Online Reporting System
Challenges of Wind
industry
Windturbineeffects.crowdmap.com
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Challenges of Wind
industry
Online Reporting System
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Challenges of Wind
industry
Online Reporting System
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Challenges of Wind
industry
Online Reporting System
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Driving Traffic to the Site
Challenges of Wind
industry
• Leveraging the diverse MEM class who are all on Facebook and twitter to spread word about the site.
• I have joined certain list serves that are both for and against wind turbines to spread word.
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Authenticity of Reports Submitted
Challenges of Wind
industry
The only safeguards now are:
• People’s integrity
• Fill out a form with your email address and location. Multiple reports from the same email address will be a red flag
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Choosing a site
Challenges of Wind
industry
1. Area with good wind resource2. Area with good transportation
system3. Area where snow and ice wont be
that big of an issue during the winter4. A place where there isn’t that much
opposition to the construction of wind turbines based on the global red flags that the online reporting system will generate.
Acknowledgements• Prof. Graves, 390 Professor• Prof. Wegst, Faculty Advisor• Dr. Raymond Hartman, My boss at GMA • Dr. Richard Tabors• The Review Board
41
Thank you!
09/20/2012
4209/20/2012
Efficiency of Installed Capacity
Capital and Power CostEstimated capital cost $1.5 million
Actual capital cost $2 million; an overrun of 33%
The project was financed by UM cash reserves and a $50,000 cash subsidy from the Maine Public Utilities Commission.
The estimated useful service life was about 20 years.Predicted power production: 1,000,000 kWh/yrPredicted capacity factor = 1,000,000 kWh/yr)/ (600 kW x 8,760 hr/yr) = 0.190 Actual power production after 1 year: 609,250 kWhActual capacity factor for 1 year = 609,250 kWh/yr/ (600 kW x 8,760 hr/yr) = 0.116; a shortfall of 39%
Value of power produced = 609,250 kWh/yr x $0.125/ kWh = $76,156/yr; if O&M and financing costs amortized over 20 years are subtracted, this value will likely be negative.
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