Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 Air Quality (AQ) Alistair.

Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits

of Enhanced Environmental ProtectionEuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962

Air Quality (AQ)

Alistair HuntDepartment of Economics

University of BathUK

+44(0)1225.38.32.44e-mail: [email protected]

Overview of AQ presentation

• AQ as an environmental hazard

• AQ in the ENPI East Regional context

• Outline of Method

• Results– Qualitative– Quantitative

• Conclusions: Next steps for policy use

23-24.06-2011 Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau 2

Air Quality – Environmental Hazard

• AQ increasingly recognised as significant hazard in most countries in the world, including all ENPI East countries.

• Accumulating evidence showing adverse effects of air-borne pollutants on human health, agricultural crops, man-made environments (damage to building materials) and ecosystems.

• Impacts do not respect national boundaries.


Air Quality – Sources of pollution

• Air pollutants may be released by either stationary sources (e.g. a coal-fired power plant), or by moving sources (e.g. cars, buses)

• Common pollutants include particulate matter, NOx, SO2, CO, carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), (transport, energy combustion), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), heavy metals (industry), etc.


Pollutant emissions (% of total) from various sources in Europe


Source SO2 NOx NMVOC NH3 N2O CO2 CO CH4 Industrial

power generation

60 20 0.4 0.1 6.1 33 0.8 0.2

Other industry and waste disposal

25 13 31 2.4 37 24 17 52

Road transport 7 63 39 0.9 5. 24 69 0.8

Domestic heating and

cooking

7 3 7 2 15 10 1

Agriculture and animals

0.3 16 96 48 1 0.8 45

Regional Context

• Air pollutants are emitted principally from– Heavy industries in all ENPI East countries

(e.g. Ukraine: metallurgical industries, mining, and oil processing sectors)

– Transport: In all ENPI East countries, rising levels of car ownership combined with poor levels of maintenance of an ageing car fleet


Regional Context

• Moldova: large majority of cars are not in line with technical requirements (Euro 2 and Euro 3) and are old. – More than 90% of the vehicles in Moldova are

older than 10 years (MMoT).

– The law prohibiting import of cars older than 7 years has been amended and increased the limit from 7 to 10 years.

• 23-24.06-2011 Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau 7

Regional Context

• Sources and Impacts predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry

• Trends: generally in line with levels of economic activity, though signs of de-coupling as technologies improve

• Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of air pollutant reductions


Pollution emissions by country in 2005 (thousand tonnes)


NH3 NMVOC NOx PM2.5 PMco PM10 SO2

Armenia 17 101 6 16 10 26 8

Azerbaijan 64 318 76 18 9 27 135

Belarus 165 366 84 29 14 43 134

Georgia 39 68 16 7 3 10 5

Moldova 21 73 14 25 21 46 7Russian Federation 1068 8394 4297 947 569 1516 6710

Ukraine 306 838 544 305 202 507 863

Total (rounded) 1680 10159 5036 1348 827 2175 7863

user

More recent information not readily available ? If not, you shoudl say so orally. Say that in-country more recent information, but that you've choosen to use a single central source cause those data have been made comparable

Project Method (1)

• Benefits assessed under the project: resulting from 50% reductions from projected baseline levels of PM10, (transport) NMVOCs, (industry) NH3, (agriculture) SO2 and NOx (energy & transport) in 2020. – based on equivalent reductions typically required in countries

adopting the EU AQ Framework Directive. ((Directive 2008/50/EC)

• The selected pollutants account for majority of benefits in previous assessments


Method (2)

• Qualitative assessment– Describe various forms of impacts resulting from

AQ– Categorise benefits in terms of:

• Economic

• Social

• Environmental

• Health

– Data from in-country reviews & other assessments


Methods (3)

• Quantitative assessment– Outputs from integrated software tool called EcoSense -

assesses impacts resulting from the exposure to airborne pollutants: human health, crops, building materials. (Note: under-estimates since does not include all air pollutants).

– modelling and the calculation of impact costs follow the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA).

– Worked example in BAM for policy makers


Methods (4)

Transport and

chemical

Transformation


Emissions

MonetaryEvaluation

Methods (5)

• Derive Unit value per tonne of pollutant– Unit value X Number of tonnes reduced

= Total value of benefits (health, crops, materials)


NH3 NMVOC NOX PM10 SO2

€/ton (mean) 8,400 30 4,700 32,400 9,500

€/ton (range) 2210 - 24,000 -280 - 710 1,900 - 11,600 8,300 - 78,600 3,300 - 14,600

Air Quality Unit Values: Euro per ton of pollutant (€2008 PPP)

Methods (6)

• Impacts – relative importance (% of total): – mortality (70 per cent); – morbidity (20 per cent); – crops (6 per cent);– materials (4 per cent).

• To express the results in physical terms: 1. total benefits apportioned to these splits

2.divide by unit value. (Central unit values for mortality and morbidity are €1.1 million and

€0.2 million, respectively, but need adjusting for PPP).


Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative


Environmental benefits

Description

Ecosystem condition improvements

Reduced acidification from lower SO2 and

NOx emissions Reduced climate change impacts on impacts

from lower SO2 and NOx emissions Reduced damage to vegetation from low level

ozone

Results (2)


Health benefits Description

Lower incidence of acute and chronic disease

Reductions in SO2 imply lower incidence of

cardiovascular and respiratory disease Reductions in PM10 concentrations imply lower

emergency-room visits due to asthma, and also hospital admissions on the grounds of respiratory diseases

Reductions in NOx, when combined with ozone,

organic compounds, particulates and sunlight result in corresponding reductions of photochemical ‘smog’ that otherwise cause respiratory impairment, irritation of the eyes and mucous membrane, with asthma patients and young children.

Results (2b): case study

• Carcinogenic risk for the population of a metallurgical centre, Achinsk in Krasnoyarsk region (Siberia) – at present levels of air pollution, the number

of cases of cancer will amount to 48 cases during the next 70 years, or 0.66 cases per year.


Results (3)


Social benefits DescriptionReduced damage to cultural heritage, including historic building surfaces in city centres

Black smoke from traffic is a prime cause of discolouring of buildings, including public buildings of important social cultural value, such as monuments, historic buildings, churches, museums

Exposure of building materials to SO2 deposition

from acidification results in premature ageing.

Reduced blackening and erosion of surfaces (from

SOx and NOx emissions from traffic fuel use), can

improve the social appreciation and use of city centres and cultural heritage.

Results (4)


Economic benefits

Description

‘Green technology’ industries

Increase in demand for products and processes that result in lower air pollution emissions, and subsequent employment opportunities, as long as such industries are domestic.

Increased visits to improved landscapes and natural areas

Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas.

Lower material cleaning costs

Reductions in expenditures on building surfaces soiled by particulates.

Crop damage reductions

Reduced crop damage from lower SO2 and NOx

emissions Reduced crop damage from low level ozone

Results (5): quantitative health benefits (physical numbers)– The majority of health benefits in the ENPI East region are

realised in Russia


Deaths Chronic Bronchitis Cases

Low High Low High

Armenia 100 340 250 810

Azerbaijan 230 750 580 1,870

Belarus 970 3,150 2,310 7,500

Georgia 100 340 230 750

Moldova 450 1,460 920 3,000

Russian Federation

21,970 71,250 41,630 135,000

Ukraine 4,740 15,370 4,570 14,810

Total 28,570 92,660 50,490 163,740

Results (6): quantitative health benefits


Deaths per 100,000 popn

Armenia 6

Azerbaijan 5

Belarus 17

Georgia 4

Moldova 21

Russia 27

Ukraine 18

- - Premature deaths avoided per 100,000 popn reflects relative concentrations of polluting activity and proximity to urban centres

Results (7): Monetary benefits


Euro 2008 PPP (m) % of GDP

Low High Low High

Armenia 71 231 0.3 1.1

Azerbaijan 227 736 0.3 0.8

Belarus 1,333 4,323 1.2 3.8

Georgia 57 184 0.3 0.9

Moldova 146 475 1.4 4.6

Russia 56,394 182,900 1.8 5.8

Ukraine 3,845 12,469 1.2 3.9

Total 62,073 201,319

Annual Compliance: Domestic Benefits – 2020

Results (8): Monetary benefits


Euro PPP 2008 (m) % of GDP

Low High Low High

Armenia 72 233 0.3 1.1

Azerbaijan 157 509 0.2 0.6

Belarus 348 1,130 0.3 0.9

Georgia 71 230 0.3 1.1

Moldova 162 525 1.6 5.1

Russia 31,354 101,690 1.0 3.2

Ukraine 5,492 17,811 1.7 5.6

Total 37,656 122,129

Annual Compliance: Trans-Boundary Benefits – 2020

Conclusions (1)

• Total domestic benefits (health, crops, material) of reducing emissions by 50% from projected 2020 levels in all the Eastern ENP countries

→ €200 billion per year.

• Total trans-boundary impacts (i.e. all benefits outside country borders)

→ €120 billion of benefits per year (more uncertain)

• Benefits to human health - 90% of total benefits.


Conclusions (2)

• Absolute levels of benefits from 50% reduction in air pollution are high:

– average 1 – 2% of GDP, including trans-boundary effects

• Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway (emissions-dispersion-exposure-impact-valuation)

• Under-estimates quantitatively since does not include all air pollutants.

• May over-estimate since assumes GDP-emissions rise together to 2020


Recommendations

• Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased regulation

• Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and distributional effects of increased regulation


Outstanding questions

• What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular?

• What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results?


Thank you for your attentionwww.environment-benefits.eu

Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of

enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/225-962)

Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 Air Quality (AQ) Alistair.

Documents

enpi east countries

final project event

enpi countries of social

project method

chisinau2 slide

ppp slide

chisinau8 slide

chisinau10 slide