Tom Reynolds Air Traffic Control Systems Group Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Meeting Washington, DC, August 3, 2016 Analysis Capabilities Developed in Support of WTIC Research Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.
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Analysis Capabilities Developed in Support of WTIC … Capabilities Developed in Support of WTIC Research ... Case Study: Establishing Wind ... Operational B757 Pegasus FMS
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Tom Reynolds
Air Traffic Control Systems Group
Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Meeting
Washington, DC, August 3, 2016
Analysis Capabilities Developed
in Support of WTIC Research
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.
WTIC Winds Panel - 2
TGR 08/03/16
Time Target
Meter Fix
Time target and
Wind updates
Motivation: Wind Impacts on4D-Trajectory Based Operations
FMS
Wind
Forecast
ATC Systems
ATC
Wind
Forecast
Need for research to inform Minimum Weather Service & 4D-TBO guidance documents
Actual
Winds
FMS = Flight Management System
4D-TBO = 4D-Trajectory Based Operations
Fre
qu
en
cy
0
Time Error
95% time compliance
at meter fix
Other aircraft forming
traffic stream
WTIC Winds Panel - 3
TGR 08/03/16
• Support WTIC objective to develop a minimum weather service
• Perform analyses to determine wind information specifications and potential FMS wind-related enhancements that enable current and selected NextGen operations to meet performance objectives in various wind conditions
• Various capabilities developed to support this charter
Charter
Develop Modeling Framework
Identify NextGen Operations
Impacted by Wind Forecasts
Work with Stakeholders
• Identify performance objectives
Conduct Analysis
• Develop analysis infrastructure
• Develop Trade Spaces of
Performance vs data source,
accuracy, update rate, etc.
• Assess datalink implications
Develop Recommendations for
Minimum Wind Information and
Datalink Requirements
Te
ch
nic
al re
po
rts
,
RT
CA
ac
tivit
ies
, e
tc.
WTIC Winds Panel - 4
TGR 08/03/16
Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History
Wind Information Analysis Framework (WIAF)
Phase I II III IV V
12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012
Performance
AssessmentWind
forecast
assumpt
ions
Wind
Scenario Truth
Forecast
Air
cra
ft/A
uto
mati
on
Sim
ula
tio
n
Stakeholder needs
ATC
Scenario 4D-TBO
IM
Wind
Requirements
Identify combinations of
wind data forecast model
& look-ahead time which
meet required wind info
quality goal
Pe
rf
Me
tric
Wind Information Quality
Low
Med
High
Sample
targetperformance
Av
era
ge
fore
ca
st
err
or
Look-ahead time
Benign,
Moderate,
Severe,
Extreme
ModelABC
Req’d
wind
info
quality
Scenario VariableOverall Impact on
Performance
Worse Performance
From…*
Better Performance
From…*
FMS RTA capability Major
FMS RTA tolerance Major Wider RTA tolerance Tighter RTAtolerance
MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System
WTIC Winds Panel - 9
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• Key research questions:
1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs) in a B757 FMS from four to nine?
2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?
Latest RTA Analysis
1
DFL
2
3
4
Operational B757 Pegasus FMS
(4 DFLs, wind only)
Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS
(9 DFLs, wind & temp)
DFL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A B
C D 9 DFLs 4 DFLs
Headwind optimized profile
Magnitude optimized profile
Equidistant altitude selection profile
WTIC Winds Panel - 10
TGR 08/03/16
• Airlines currently often use simple wind selection procedures to determine what (if any) forecast information to load into the FMS
• FMS can only accept a limited set of forecast data at discrete points
– E.g., Four Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs)
Latest RTA Analysis:Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecasts
DFL
Boeing 757, Honeywell Pegasus FMS
DFL = Descent Forecast Level
1
2
3
4
WTIC Winds Panel - 11
TGR 08/03/16
Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions
1
DFL
2
3
4
1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of
DFLs in a B757 FMS from four to nine?
Operational B757 Pegasus FMS
(4 DFLs, wind only)
Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS
(9 DFLs, wind & temp)
DFL = Descent Forecast Level
DFL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
WTIC Winds Panel - 12
TGR 08/03/16
Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions
2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude
selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?
A B
C D 9 DFLs
Headwind optimized profile
Magnitude optimized profile
Equidistant altitude selection profile
4 DFLs
WTIC Winds Panel - 13
TGR 08/03/16
• Analysis capabilities critical to support WTIC mission
• Range of tools developed at Lincoln to assess impacts of atmospheric forecast accuracy on 4D-TBO performance
• Application of tools being leveraged in range of areas, e.g., RTCA guidance documents
• On-going work:
– Use of aircraft-derived winds (e.g., via Mode S EHS)
– RTA to lower altitude meter fixes
• Interested to explore collaborations with other stakeholders who could benefit from access to tools
Summary
WTIC Winds Panel - 14
TGR 08/03/16
This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002 and/or FA8702-15-D-0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration.
Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as defined in DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding any copyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined by DFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS252.227-7014 as detailed above. Use of this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S. Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.
WTIC Winds Panel - 15
TGR 08/03/16
Backups
WTIC Winds Panel - 16
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KDEN Simulations(No Forecast Data)
WTIC Winds Panel - 17
TGR 08/03/16
KDEN Simulations(Cruise and 4 Magn-opt DFLs w/ 3hr fcst)