IEK 產業經濟與趨勢研究中心 Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries 呂學隆 Hsueh-lung Lu (Mark) Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK) Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) ,Taiwan 2016/10/19 World Mobility Summit 2016
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IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
An Update on the Chinese xEV Market,
and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries
呂學隆 Hsueh-lung Lu (Mark)
Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)
Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) ,Taiwan
Totally 57 companies passed the qualification in the Chinese xEV battery
Leading companies face line-up order and continue to enlarge the production capacity
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
BYD: From LFP to LFMP/NMC
20
To satisfy xEV & E-Bus demand, BYD continues to increase production capacity
10GWh/yr production capacity in Shenzhen by the end of 2016, additional 6GWh/yr new factory by the end of 2019 in Chinghai province
Source: BYD, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
Sales volume (GWh)
Vehicle quantity up to sales volume (×10000)
EVBUS HEV
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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BYD: From LFP to LFMP/NMC
21
To satisfy xEV & E-Bus demand, BYD continues to increase production capacity
10GWh/yr totally in Shenzhen by the end of 2016, additional 6GWh/yr new factory by the end of 2019 in Chinghai province
Source: BYD, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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Power Battery is One of the Key Factors to
BEV Performance
22Source: BJEV (2016/05)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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The Performance Improvement of Battery of
BJEV BEV Design
23Source: BJEV (2016/05)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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BJEV Overall Thermal Management Scheme
to Meet Low Temperature Applied Demand
24Source: BJEV (2016/05)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
CATL: Leading Company with International Experience
25
Responsible for all the xEV, ESS business in ATL group
Cooperation experience with BMW, VW on 12V/48V, VDA size of PHEV
Mainly focuses on VDA prismatic/pouch size, but willing to customize designs for E-buses
Chinese customers: Geely, FAW, CSR Times, XMKLM, Yutong, Zhongtong
Pride’s customers: BAIC, Chana, Zotye, Shifeng
2GWh production capacity at the end of 2016
Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
CATL: Leading Company with International Experience
26
Responsible for all the xEV, ESS business in ATL group
Cooperation experience with BMW, VW on 12V/48V, VDA size of PHEV
Mainly focuses on VDA prismatic/pouch size, but willing to customize designs for E-buses
Chinese customers: Geely, FAW, CSR Times, XMKLM, Yutong, Zhongtong
Pride’s customers: BAIC, Chana, Zotye, Shifeng
Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
CATL: Leading Company with International Experience
27Source: CATL, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/11)
Technology Demonstration
Sample-A ready for
qualification
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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ISS VDA-LV(T15/L150/H150mm)
HEV VDA-HEV(T12.5/L120/H85mm)
PHEV VDA-PHEV1(T21/L173/H85mm)
VDA-PHEV2(T26.5/L148/H91mm)
BEV VDA-PHEV2(T26.5/L148/H91mm)
ATL-J1(T47.5/L173/H126mm)
◆20AhP/E=30
-30~80℃ Operation
◆20AhP/E=30
-40~80℃ Operation
◆6AhP/E=50
◆10AhP/E=50
◆31Ah150Wh/kg
350Wh/L
◆37Ah180Wh/kg
450Wh/L
◆37Ah165Wh/kg
390Wh/L
◆42Ah180Wh/kg
435Wh/L
◆50Ah210Wh/kg
520Wh/L
◆45Ah190Wh/kg
470Wh/L
◆50Ah210Wh/kg
520Wh/L
◆55Ah240Wh/kg
570Wh/L
◆70Ah+300Wh/kg
700Wh/L
◆120Ah180Wh/kg
450Wh/L
◆160Ah240Wh/kg
600Wh/L
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
CATL: Module & Pack Safety Design Strategy
28Source: CATL (2016/03)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
CATL Thermal Management Design Strategy
29Source: CATL (2016/03)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved
GXGK: LFP/NCM Battery Manufacturer
30Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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GXGK: LFP Battery Manufacturer
31Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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The Assessment of Mini Electric Car and Mini Short
Distance Electric Vehicles
32
Low-speed EVs are upgrading to mini EVs
Features Miniature, Light-weight, Short-distance, Economical
Type 3-3-3 Cost 30,000 RMB, 3m long, 3 seats, Use the same lithium-ion batteries as electric bicycles
Management: Treated the same as four-wheel motorcycles
Regulations for management and support in the future are still under discussion
Source: ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/04)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
All Rights Reserved 33
Chinese EV Market Notes in 2016~2017
Source: ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/01)
2014/15 were good years, so how is 2016 and the future?
xEV application occupied 34% of the Chinese LIB production in 2015
For the new subsidies decrease, it’s difficult to create another 300~% YoY growth
Compact BEV & Short length E-buses still preferred in 2016
Small and light design keep less batteries, RMB$40K~80K after subsidies
E-bus business model is B2G (local government/transportation), getting the KPI
from central government is the only issue
Opportunities exist in many aspects…
Special use xEV may the next good target for public use
Charging infra: already released subsidies system
Re-use/ recycle: battery scope is enough to support the business, and policies just
under discussion
Technologies improvement: low temperature suffer and consistency
Low-speed EV (LEV): can develop over 700K units without any policy supporting
Risks for the new entrants & foreign companies!!!
Protectionism & Political Effects!!!!!
Safety accidents exists and may effect the future product development
Except some leading companies, batteries quality is uneven between 2-tier
suppliers
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2016
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http://ieknet.iek.org.tw
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Thank you
呂學隆 Mark Lu工研院產業經濟與趨勢研究中心資深產業分析師Certified Industrial Analyst
Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)
Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
Address: Rm.302, Bldg.10, 195 Sec. 4, ChungHsing Rd.
Source: China State Council , ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/01)
2014
•Policy to government utility cars
•Tax discount: sales tax, Purchasing
tax & Value-added tax for R&D
•Subsidy for the charging infra
•Lower expense for xEV charging
electricity
•(Future carbon/ZEV
trading for ICE)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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Comparison of the Chinese xEV Subsidy Policies between
2013~2015 & 2016~2020
36
Note: Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》
Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/01)
According to the subsidies policy 2016-2020, the xEV purchasing subsidies will continue from 2016 to 2020
“Double 100”: BEV subsidy barrier from R=80km to R=100km, and maximum speed =100km/hr
Use subsidies level in 2016 as standard: Decrease by 20% between Jan., 2017 and Dec., 2018. Decrease by a further 20% of the 2016 amount between Jan., 2019 and Dec., 2020
The highest subsidies ratio for customer: Nissan Leaf can take USD$12,680~16,180 subsidies in China
2013-2020 NEV Subsidy PoliciesSubsidies(K RMB)
R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2018 2019-2020
BEV passenger car
80≤R<150 35K 33.25K 31.5K
100≤R<150 25K 20K 15K
150≤R<250 50K 47.5K 45K 45K 36K 27K
R≥250 60K 57K 54K 55K 44K 33K
PHEV/REEV
passenger car R≥50 35K 33.25K 31.5K
FCEV 200K 190K 180K 200K 200K 200K
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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Supporting Policies will be Effective between 2016-2020
37
Note: E=Energy consumption rate= Energy consumption (Wh)/driving range (km),
M=maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass ≤180kg, M=180kg when 180kg ≤ maximum
authorized pay mass < 360kg, M = 0.5*maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass > 360kg
Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》
Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/01)
Decreased subsidy policies in 2016 resulted in the booming Nov. & Dec.
From bus length judgment to distance per charge & Ekg
17 cities announced they will provide additional 1:1 subsidies on xEV purchases
Government prefers small buses, and requests each city purchase a minimum number
2016-2020 NEV Bus Subsidy Policies
E-Bus
Subsidies(K RMB)
(Ekg=E/M,Wh/km·kg)
Standard E-bus length(10m<Bus length≤12m)R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)
6≤R<20 20≤R<50 50≤R<100 100≤R<150 150≤R<250 R≥250
BEV Bus
Ekg<0.25 220 260 300 350 420 500
0.25≤Ekg<0.35 200 240 280 320 380 460
0.35≤Ekg<0.5 180 220 240 280 340 420
0.5≤Ekg<0.6 160 180 200 250 300 360
0.6≤Ekg<0.7 120 140 160 200 240 300
PHEV/REEV Bus / / 200 230 250
2013-2015 NEV Bus Subsidy Policies
Bus meter length
K RMB 6≤L<8 8≤L<10 L>10
BEV Bus 300 400 500
PHEV (EREV) Bus 250
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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All Rights Reserved
Chinese xEV Subsidy Policies Development in 2016Q1
38
Note: Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》
Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/03)
“Subsidy fraud” exists and affects central & local governments’ willingness to continue
The results of the investigation will be disclosed before the end of May
It will be increasingly more difficult and complicated to take NEV subsidies in the future
After the “National People’s Congress” and “Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress”, the local cities/areas subsidy policies may gradually be disclosed
2013-2020 NEV Subsidy PoliciesSubsidies (K RMB)
R= Distance under the electric power per charging (km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2018 2019-2020
BEV
passenger cars
80≤R<150 35K 33.25K 31.5K
100≤R<150 25K 20K 15K
150≤R<250 50K 47.5K 45K 45K 36K 27K
R≥250 60K 57K 54K 55K 44K 33K
PHEV/REEV
passenger
cars
R≥50 35K 33.25K 31.5K 30KNot
confirmed
Not
confirmed
FCEV 200K 190K 180K 200K 200K 200K
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
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Chinese xEV Supporting Policies Development in 2016Q1
39
Note: E=Energy consumption rate = Energy consumption (Wh)/driving range (km),
M=maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass ≤180kg, M=180kg when 180kg ≤ maximum
authorized pay mass < 360kg, M = 0.5*maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass > 360kg
Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》
Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/03)
New supporting and “real subsidy” policy to encourage charging infra Government now offering specific subsidies to promote special use xEVs
The larger battery capacity, the more money you can receive…
Detailed draft of carbon/ZEV trading for ICE has been disclosed
2016-2020 NEV Bus Subsidy PoliciesE-Bus
Subsidies(K RMB)
(Ekg=E/M,Wh/km·kg)
Standard E-bus length(10m<Bus length≤12m)R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)
6≤R<20 20≤R<50 50≤R<100 100≤R<150 150≤R<250 R≥250
BEV Bus
Ekg<0.25 220 260 300 350 420 500
0.25≤Ekg<0.35 200 240 280 320 380 460
0.35≤Ekg<0.5 180 220 240 280 340 420
0.5≤Ekg<0.6 160 180 200 250 300 360
0.6≤Ekg<0.7 120 140 160 200 240 300
PHEV/REEV Bus / / 200 230 250
Note: In 2016, for BEV/PHEV special use vehicles (Trucks, Mail vans, Road
cleaners, Garbage trucks):
Subsidies by Battery Capacity: RMB$1,800/kWh
(But Chinese government is preparing to differentiate by usage and