An overview of urbanization, internal migration, population distribution … · 2008-01-23 · United NatUnited Nations Population Division, 2007ions Population Division, 2007 Main

United Nations Population Division 2008United Nations Population Division 2008

An overview of urbanization, internal An overview of urbanization, internal migration, population distribution migration, population distribution

and development in the worldand development in the world

Jorge Bravo, Population Division, DESAJorge Bravo, Population Division, DESA

Expert Group Meeting on Urbanization, Internal Expert Group Meeting on Urbanization, Internal Migration, Population Distribution and Development , Migration, Population Distribution and Development ,

New York, 21New York, 21--23 January 200823 January 2008

United NationsUnited Nations

United Nations Population Division, 2007United Nations Population Division, 2007

Main pointsMain points

1.1. Internal MigrationInternal Migration2.2. Population distribution and Population distribution and

population ageing population ageing 3.3. Development and poverty in an Development and poverty in an

urbanizing worldurbanizing world


Data sourcesData sources

Urban & rural population and Urban & rural population and urbanization rates: UN/DESA urbanization rates: UN/DESA Population Division Population Division World Urbanization World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 RevisionProspects: The 2007 RevisionUrban & rural population by age and Urban & rural population by age and sex: UN/DESA Population Division, sex: UN/DESA Population Division, based mostly on national censusesbased mostly on national censusesInternal migration: censuses, DHSInternal migration: censuses, DHSEconomic indicators: World Bank Economic indicators: World Bank (2007), ILO, FAO (2007)(2007), ILO, FAO (2007)


1.1. Internal MigrationInternal Migration


a. Migration and the components of urban growth

Urban population growth is determined by natural increase, rural-urban net migration and reclassification

The available evidence* suggests that natural increase is a major contributing factor: in at least 2/3 of the countries of each region, natural increase accounts for over ½ of urban growth

* From 62 countries in the 1980s, 34 in the 1990s


a. Migration and the components of urban growth

Regional differences: Natural increase has become increasingly important in most of Latin America and the Caribbean, is important in Asia, but less so in Africa.

Notable exceptions in Asia are China and Indonesia, where migration and reclassification has accounted for 70% to 80% of urban growth in some past decades


b. Migrants characteristics

Economic theory suggests that important motives to migrate are higher expected earnings at possible destinations, cash income, and risk insurance/diversification

Evidence shows that:

intra-rural and intra-urban migration are as important or often more important than the rural-urban flows


b. Migrants characteristicsFemale migrants are predominant in some

flows, e.g.,in rural-rural migration in Egypt and India;

In rural-urban migration in Brazil, Honduras, Philippines and Thailand

Migrants are generally positively selected by education and skills. Migration isbeneficial for them, their families, and for the redistribution of labor towards higher productivity occupations


2.2. Population distribution and Population distribution and population ageing population ageing


Population distribution and ageingPopulation distribution and ageing

Fertility and mortality are almost Fertility and mortality are almost always lower in urban than in rural always lower in urban than in rural areas, so that (in the absence of net areas, so that (in the absence of net ruralrural--urban migration), urban migration), urbanurban areas areas would have older age structures than would have older age structures than ruralrural areas; i.e., lower childareas; i.e., lower child--dependency ratios and higher olddependency ratios and higher old--dependency ratios than rural areasdependency ratios than rural areas


Urban areas have indeed lower Urban areas have indeed lower child child dependency ratios than rural areasdependency ratios than rural areas……

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Africa Asia LatinAmerica

andCaribbean

NorthernAmerica

Europe Oceania

RuralUrban


……but also have lower but also have lower oldold--age age dependency ratios than rural areasdependency ratios than rural areas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Africa Asia LatinAmerica

andCaribbean

NorthernAmerica

Europe Oceania

RuralUrban


AFRICA

ASIA

LAC

EUROPE

OCEANIANORTHERN AMERICA

30%

60%

90%

0-4 5-9 10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

* Estimates based on information compiled by the Population Division

Proportion urban by age, major regions, 2005*


In sum:In sum:

The lower rates of natural increase in The lower rates of natural increase in cities and the relatively high cities and the relatively high urbanization rates of young and middleurbanization rates of young and middle--aged adultsaged adults……Lead to lower dependency ratios and a Lead to lower dependency ratios and a greater potential demographic dividend greater potential demographic dividend in urban areasin urban areasThis provides an opportunity for This provides an opportunity for development, whose realization development, whose realization depends on appropriate institutional depends on appropriate institutional settings and comprehensive policiessettings and comprehensive policies


3. Development and poverty 3. Development and poverty in an urbanizing worldin an urbanizing world


MacroMacro--level associations between level associations between urbanization and economic changeurbanization and economic change

Generally observed positive correlation Generally observed positive correlation between percentage urban and GDP per between percentage urban and GDP per capita, although not very strong especially capita, although not very strong especially at low levels of developmentat low levels of development

More systematic correlation over time of More systematic correlation over time of urbanization with the production in urbanization with the production in industry and services and the size of the industry and services and the size of the labor force in those sectorslabor force in those sectors


AFRICAASIA

EUROPE

LAC

NORTHERN AMERICA

NORTHERN AMERICA

OCEANIA

LEAST

LESS

MORE

0.0

0.2

0.319

70

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Labor force – Urbanization gap *

* Difference between % of LF in industry and services and % of population in urban areas


AFRICA

ASIA

EUROPE

LAC

NORTHERN AMERICA

OCEANIA

LEAST

LESS

MORE

-0.1

0.3

0.619

71

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Production – Employment gap *

* Difference between % of GDP in industry and services and % of LF in these sectors


PovertyPoverty in urban and rural areasin urban and rural areas

A recent study by the World Bank (2007) shows that:

• During 1993-2002, the urban share of poor people has increased, due mostly to rapid urbanization and to significant declines in rural poverty rates

• But the poor population remains largely concentrated in rural areas (75%), and

• Poverty rates in urban areas remain substantially lower (less than ½) than in rural areas


ConclusionsConclusionsNatural increase continues to make a sizeable Natural increase continues to make a sizeable (often principal) contribution to urban growth. (often principal) contribution to urban growth. Internal migration benefits individuals who move, Internal migration benefits individuals who move, their families and the aggregate economy, by their families and the aggregate economy, by redistributing redistributing labourlabour force toward more productive force toward more productive occupations.occupations.

Younger and middleYounger and middle--aged adults are generally aged adults are generally more urbanized than children or the elderly, and more urbanized than children or the elderly, and urban fertility and mortality are lower than in rural urban fertility and mortality are lower than in rural areas. This implies lower dependency ratios in areas. This implies lower dependency ratios in urban areas, which constitutes an opportunity for urban areas, which constitutes an opportunity for development.development.


Conclusions (cont.)Conclusions (cont.)

The level of GDP is positively but rather weakly The level of GDP is positively but rather weakly associated with urbanization. However, there is associated with urbanization. However, there is high synchronicity between urbanization, the high synchronicity between urbanization, the production and employment in industry and production and employment in industry and services. In less developed countries, the large gap services. In less developed countries, the large gap in productivity across sectors and rural and urban in productivity across sectors and rural and urban areas imposes limitations to continued growth.areas imposes limitations to continued growth.

The worldThe world’’s poor are increasingly concentrated in s poor are increasingly concentrated in urban areas, though still today a great majority urban areas, though still today a great majority (75%) live in rural areas. Since urban poverty (75%) live in rural areas. Since urban poverty rates are in all regions lower than in rural areas, rates are in all regions lower than in rural areas, continued urbanization is expected to make on the continued urbanization is expected to make on the whole a positive contribution in improving living whole a positive contribution in improving living conditions of the population.conditions of the population.


Thank you !Thank you !

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An overview of urbanization, internal migration, population distribution … · 2008-01-23 · United NatUnited Nations Population Division, 2007ions Population Division, 2007 Main

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