An overview of the 2014 Gulf of Maine cod stock assessment Michael Palmer Northeast Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service 166 Water.

An overview of the 2014 Gulf of Maine cod stock assessmentMichael Palmer

Northeast Fisheries Science CenterNational Marine Fisheries Service166 Water St. Woods Hole, MA 02543

Maine Fishermen’s ForumRockport, MEMarch 6, 2015

Major signals in the fisheries independent and dependent data

• Fishery• Catches have declined since 2011 (quota reductions)• Truncation in the size/age of the catch

• Occurrence of large fish (>80 cm) are now largely absent from the recreational fishery

• Catches remain concentrated in the western Gulf of Maine• Some eastward shift in commercial catches since 2013

• Surveys• Survey indices have declined to the lowest levels of the time series

• Not only NEFSC surveys, but also MA DMF and ME/NH surveys• Truncation in the size/age of survey catches• Cod resource remains highly concentrated in the western Gulf of Maine

• Percent occurrence of cod has declined

Mean age

• Truncation in the age structure evident in both fishery-dependent and independent data• Reductions in the mean age

Recreational fish size

• Annual MA DMF saltwater fishing derby• http://www.mass.gov/eea/agencies/dfg/dmf/recreational-fishing/saltwater-fishing-derby

.html• Minimum qualifying criteria:

• Weigh-in: 30 lb (13.6 kg) ~ 107 cm• Catch-and-release: 42 inches (107 cm)

• There have been no entries since 2011

Figure courtesy of S. Correia

Commercial fish size

• Commercial landings• Proportion of commercial landings by market category shows decline of ‘large’ cod• Large fish (>110 cm) are much less common in the ‘large’ market category compared

to 7-8 years ago.

Commercial catch efficiency

• Commercial LPUE indices have declined sharply since 2010.• Declines since 2010 are likely due to several factors including decreases in cod

abundance, availability and quota

Commercial catch distributions

• Beginning in 2013 and continuing in 2014, there was an eastward shift in the distribution of GoM cod catches

Commercial catch and effort redistribution

• Catch efficiency of cod is greater in the western Gulf – if industry wanted to avoid targeting cod, one way to do it is to shift effort into the eastern Gulf

• Declines in proportion of GoM cod catch from the western Gulf coincided with an easterly shift in the spatial distribution of the groundfish fleet’s fishing effort

Survey distributions

• Reductions in the spatial extent/frequency of occurrence of cod in the Gulf of Maine

Survey distributions

• Last 8 years (2007-2014): Continued reductions in the spatial extent/frequency of occurrence of cod in the Gulf of Maine

Regional survey indices

• Declining regional survey indices (NEFSC, MA DMF, ME/NH)

Assessment model results

• Recruitment continues to be poor• 2009-2013 geometric mean

• M=0.2: 1.5 million• M-ramp: 2.7 million

• Fishing mortality >1.0 since at least 2011• >5 times overfishing threshold

• Spawning stock biomass has declined to 2,000-2,500 mt• 3-4% of SSBMSY