An introduction to the climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand

An introduction to the climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand

Simon Funge-SmithSecretary, Asia-Pacific Fishery CommissionFAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Department of Fisheries Thailand, Shrimp Culture Seminar, Bangkok, 8 th August 2011

Climate changeEarth’s climate has varied widely over the last

few hundred million years there have been hot periods, and ice ages linked to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels.

The climate is currently changing surface air and sea temperatures have increased rate of warming has accelerated in the last few decades.

Human activity is contributing to this change mainly through increasing concentrations of

“greenhouse” gases (e.g. methane, CO2, N2O)

There is natural variability changes in energy from the sun, natural cycles such as El Niño (ENSO) Unexpected events e.g. volcanic eruptions

Climate change trends

Warming trend over the last 50 years nearly twice the rate of warming for the last 100 years next 100 years temperature change could range from

+0.3°C to as high as +6.4°C Global average sea level rise

average rise of 1.8 mm per year (1961 to 2003) next 100 years - sea level could change from 0.18 m to

as high as 0.59 m Intensity of rainfall events increases

changes in average rainfall increase in rainfall is projected for the Asian monsoon increase in rainfall variability, less reliable seasonal

rain?Sea level pressure is increase over the

subtropics and mid-latitudes influences sea flooding

There is a tendency for drying of the mid-continental areas during summer greater risk of droughts in those regions

Projecting the effects of climate change

Projecting these changes is challengingVery complexNumerous factors and variablesCan only indicate scenarios

Climate change will not have uniform impacts across the globeAsia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to

the low capacity of countries in the region to respond and adapt

Most projections look at a timeframe of 50-100 yearsGradual changesBut short term unpredictable events occur

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Projection

More negative than positive effectsNatural systems are vulnerable

Certain trends and impacts may be more pronounced in Asia temperature increases are likely to be above the

global norm in many parts of the regiona number of important river basins in Asia are

threatened by further water stresspeople in the region are likely to be

disproportionately impacted by floodingbiodiversity loss will be greater in the tropics

Direct consequences on shrimp culture

Direct biophysical and ecological consequences of changes

Direct impacts on aquaculture production Disease, damage, production viability, costs, efficiency

Direct impact on species compositions and distribution broodstock, species ranges

Indirect consequences on shrimp culture

Interaction between other sectors water demand & food production

Strong competition for resources land, freshwater

Impacts of the mitigation actions of other sectorsMost already present

Climate change will make them worse

Warming in the Asian region

Changes in coastal ecosystems are already taking placewarming of surface air and water temperaturesextending tropical range northwardsmigration of some species into previously cooler zonesaltered local ecosystems with changes in competitors,

predators and invasive species increased incidence of disease and parasites

Water quality changesmore frequent harmful algal bloomschanges in plankton composition less dissolved oxygen

Implication for shrimp aquaculture

Raised metabolic rates increase feeding rates and growth benefits if water quality, dissolved oxygen levels, and food

supply are adequate... ..otherwise possible reductions in feeding rates and

growth potential for enhanced primary productivity

perhaps offset by eutrophication risks possible benefits for aquaculture, especially intensive and

semi-intensive pond systemsReduced water quality leads or stress/disease

especially dissolved oxygenAquaculture opportunities lost/gained by shift in

the potential range for a given species. species can longer be grown in some areas new areas become (warmer) extending range of tropical

species (more competition?)

Implications for shrimp aquaculture

Changes in infrastructure and operating costs Profits reduced by increase in stress & disease changes in the range and abundance of pathogenshigher operating costs invasive species, pests, nuisance species and/or

predators

Possibly higher capital costs for aeration equipmentdeeper pondsmore water exchangeworsened infestations of fouling organisms

Rainfall patterns in the Asian region

Decreasing mean annual rainfall Indonesia, Philippines

Increasing mean annual rainfallSouth-Eastern coast of China, Bangladesh and along

the western coasts of the Philippines There is a trend toward an increased intensity of

rainfall increase in frequency of occurrence of more intense

rainfall events in many parts of Asia Intense rainfall events (monsoon related) causing

landslides and severe floodingOverall decrease in the total amount of rainfall

fewer rainy days and reduced total annual amount of precipitation

Changing freshwater flows

Demand for freshwater is likely to grow Already intense demands for agriculture &

cities More water shortages May increase saline intrusion in deltas

Average river runoff increase in Thailand? increases of between 10-40% in the wet tropicsflow will not be smooth, probably associated

with flooding River basins may be subjected to earlier season

peak flows

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Implications for shrimp aquaculture

Lower water availability for aquaculture increased competition with other water userschanges in water quality salinity increases, temperature rises impacts water quality causing more disease increase stress, lower performance

Aquaculture higher costs maintaining pond water levels increased stock loss reduced production capacity

Change of culture species and culture systems

some potential opportunities More recirculation / less water exchange

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Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events (ongoing)Changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

regular occurrence that already affects climate and ocean globally

altered rainfall patterns (delayed monsoon onset) drought, water shortages flash flooding in rivers

Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones cyclones move to different areas East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia especially Bay of Bengal, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Philippines

Increase in storm surges and associated coastal flooding low-pressure weather/cyclones combine with high tides push

sea water onshore shrimp aquaculture communities, their property, and

infrastructure will be exposed

Implication for shrimp culture:

Large waves and storm surges; Loss of aquaculture stock from floodingDamage to or loss of aquaculture facilities Insurance costs?

Inland flooding from intense rainfall Introduction of disease or predators into

aquaculture facilities

Cold weather eventsSudden temperature shocks can stress shrimp

triggering disease outbreaks

Coastal zones and sea-level rise

Coastlines & deltas will be subjected to: Increased erosion Inundation (increasing wetland/flooded area)FloodingLoss of coastal wetlands or expansion of mangroves

into newly flooded coastal landsSaline intrusion into rivers, bays and aquifers

Implications for shrimp aquaculture

Most immediate and significant effects in delta areas, estuaries and associated wetlandsThese are all key aquaculture environments

Changing coastal ecosystems such as mudflats and mangrove forests. worsened exposure of ponds to waves and storm

surges risks that coastal/inland aquaculture will become

inundatedLoss of land (increased flooding/inundation)

reduced area available for aquacultureSaline intrusion.

reduced freshwater availability for aquaculture opportunities to shift to brackish water species increased opportunities for mariculture

Does shrimp aquaculture contribute to climate change?

Need to look at energy “footprint” “lifecycle analysis” Indicates shrimp is worse than salmon.....

Global total of CO2 from global aquaculture 385 million tonnes ~1% of global total ~6.3-7.5% of agriculture total

Shrimp aquaculture production uses significant amounts of energy aeration, pumping, production intensive

feeds Doesn’t include processing/transport

Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing theEnvironmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia.

Relative contribution of different countries

Globally, average shrimp and prawn production contributes 17 tonnes CO2/tonne of shrimp

Thailand ~10 tonnes CO2/tonne of shrimp

Could be improved: More recirculation/less pumping More efficient aeration

air lifts instead of paddle wheels Use of pond linings

Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing the Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia.

Country tonnes CO2/tonne shrimp

China ~ 30

Ecuador ~ 14

Indonesia ~ 9

Mexico ~ 8

Thailand ~ 10

VietNam ~ 5

Average ~ 17

Adaptation & mitigation

Adaptation through reduction of vulnerability

Look for ‘‘no-regret’’ strategies“win-win”changes in management that deliver

benefits with or without climate change

Reduce vulnerability to extreme events, unexpected changescyclone and storm surge preparation resilience to floodingexpect the worse case scenario

Technical approaches for adaptation in the aquaculture sector

Make system more resilient to extreme weatherdevelop buffer areas to reduce impact of coastal flooding/storm surges raise bunds

Warmingdeepen pondsmore efficient aeration systems to cope with low dissolved oxygen

Recirculation to reduce water demandAlready being usedMay increase energy efficiency (reduced pumping/water-lifting costsPotential reduction in GHG on unit production

How to meet challenge of climate change adaptationEconomic and market diversification

New species to marketsModify operations to adapt to operational

cost changesBranding of low carbon footprint products

Insurance for the fisheries and aquaculture sectorCope with unexpected weather events

Supportive Government policy can assist adaptation

Government level clearly incorporate aquaculture production sector into

Government climate change strategies Develop/promote adaptation/mitigation actions Promote/research appropriate technologies that will

support emission reduction

Important to understand vulnerability systems, places, people

different effects in different places where to prioritize effort & money

Difficult for small farmers to recover from extreme events Low incomes and limited savings Cannot access credit, loans and insurance &

national reserves and assistance limited Lack of effective public services to address extreme

events

Opportunities for mitigation of aquaculture contributions to CO2 production

Direct reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Note that GHG emission may be lower than for other forms

of food production (e.g. intensive pork/chicken) Increase energy efficiency in aquaculture production

aeration pumping use of liners better feed conversion

Innovations in shrimp processing/transport improvements related to the transportation of fish to

markets improved building design and handling practices to reduce

energy requirements increase energy efficiency through better insulation in ice

plants, freezing plants, cold stores and chill stores.Opportunity to brand shrimp

branding and certification initiatives to promote energy efficient products

Look for positive opportunities in climate adaptation activities of other sectors Look for positive opportunities in extra-sectoral

responses. mitigation actions may provide opportunities for the

sector may be win-win

Protection of ecosystems for coastal protection or emissions reductions may reduce risk of storm surges/flooding

Initiatives on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)

mangrove restoration (good for protection of coast, also enhances fisheries so win-win)

revenues from eco-tourism

Mitigation and adaptation in other sectors may impact shrimp aquaculture

Adaptive strategies developed for other sectors may have implications on the fisheries and aquaculture sectors.

e.g. flood water diversion to save cities/agricultural land coastal management, storm protection structures – may increase

erosion interaction between other sectors and the capture fisheries and

aquaculture sectors need to be considered in policy planning

Competition for (fresh)water between the aquaculture and agriculture sectors already lead to conflicts between user groups.

Less of a problem for coastal aquaculture diversion of fresh water for water-thirsty industries May affect water quality/salinity in estuaries May increase saline intrusion – opportunity?

Key messages

Climate stress already exists Cyclone patterns, warming, cold weather, rainfall

patterns, flooding, freshwater flow, species changes

Climate variability has always been hereEl nino, unpredictable storms/weather

Climate change will cause disruptions to aquatic and coastal systems limited ability to make specific predictions on

shrimp aquaculture remains limitedMust identify the most likely risks

identify most vulnerable systems/areasdevelop specific (local) adaptive strategies

Key messages

Positive opportunitiesExtended range of species (but possibly more

competition from neighbouring producers?) Increased saline/brackishwater culture areasFaster growth rates Improved marketing of products that have made

a positive impact to reduce GHG emission (energy use)

Negative impacts expected on: Production costs Productivity and viability of aquaculture operations Extreme weather Flooding & storm surges Temperature rise Related sectors: agriculture, land and water

management, coastal development

Key messages In the short term, non-climate-related drivers

have larger impacts Don’t blame losses from bad management on

climate change! Climate change makes human driven problems worse

Biggest threat is current poor practices in shrimp culture management and ecosystem management Inefficient culture systems Spread of disease through movements of

unscreened stocks Poor zonation Poor control over effluents and coastal development Coastal habitat destruction

Poor management reduces resilience to climate change related impacts Good management will deliver benefits with or without

climate change

Key messages

Action at sector level could be promoted by supportive government policies

More local level action by farmersAssess most likely threats and possible adaptive

changesLook for cost effective win-winchanges in the farming systems technological adaption/innovation

A sustainable shrimp sector recognizes vulnerabilities and adapts

A responsible shrimp sector takes steps to mitigate its impactsopportunity for shrimp aquaculture to improve its

image as a low GHG emitting food production sector

Footnotes:Some of the climate change terminology Vulnerability

‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change’ (IPCC,2007)

Resilience “the ability to recover from, or adjust easily to change”

Adaptation “a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural

and human systems to climate change effects Adaptive capacity

“Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes” Mitigation

“Actions taken to reduce effect of climate change drivers (typically greenhouse gas reduction) “

“No-regrets” strategy “Actions contributing to CC adaptation or mitigation that make sense,

without even taking account of CC” “steps to reduce GHGs that would pay for themselves even without a climate

change” ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

“a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years, but over a period which varies from three to seven years. This affects rainfall, currents, temperatures, fisheries”

REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation) “uses market/financial incentives to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases

from deforestation and forest degradation. Also supposed to deliver "co-benefits" such as biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation”