An Introduction to Local Government Climate Adaptation Planning David S. Liebl Melinda Habecker UW-Cooperative Extension 2014 JCEP March 12 – La Crosse WICCI Climate Analysis Chris Kucharik - UW Agronomy Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research
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An Introduction to Local Government Climate Adaptation ......Adaptation Capacity: Planning. Resiliency. Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will
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Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research
Humans experience climate as weather…
…and weather can take a human toll!
What about climate concerns us?
High WaterStorms of June 1-15, 2008
38 River gauges broke records810 Square miles of land flooded161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage
2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated
$34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
DNR
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- 12” to 15” of rainfall over seven days - I39/I90-94 closed for three days due to flooding Reedsburg wastewater plant submerged, w/$800k damage…FEMA reimbursed Climate can have significant economic and human health impacts, that is why communities are concerned with it.
Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI
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Climate is a measure of the average pattern of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. Climate is different from weather, in that weather only describes the short term conditions of these variables in a given region.
Local Government Climate PlanningThe TeamOperations and infrastructure managers, public health and
safety
The Process Framework:1) Understand climate impacts 2) Assess vulnerability3) Identify adaptation opportunities4) Plan for adaptation:
– Range of strategies– Implementation plan– Public review and input
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The team consisted of 22 members from the following departments of Dane County (Land and Water Resources, Lakes and Watershed Commission, Public Works and Highway, Planning and Zoning, Emergency Management (took the lead), Administration and Risk Management, Executive’s Office, Regional Airport, Zoo, Health and Human Services, Sheriff, 911 Center) The rest of the presentation will be structured around the steps of this process framework so you will understand it in more detail Will follow up with some of the outcomes and impacts and additional work that has come out of the project
Your most notable extreme weather event
- You were in it- You responded- You will always remember- You worry about
How did we begin the Understanding of Climate Impacts? With personal experience stories. Allow a few participants to provide personal examples June 8, 1953 – Liebl example - Hurricane Agnes June 23, 1972 Habecker example – my first job as a teenager, lifeguard at a pool that was swallowed by the Conestoga River as was the apartment complex in the most costly hurricane to hit the US in recorded history, $3 billion
Wisconsin’s Historic Temperature Change
Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-1.5°F since 1950
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-Began with noting some of the historic changes to show that this is a real phenomenon. This figure shows change in average annual temperature (diurnal and seasonal) for 1950 to 2006 - Note the spatial variability over 56 years. (from 0-3 degrees change) Credit: Lake Mendota Ice Duration – John Magnuson
Daytime High Temperature Change
SpringWinter
Winter
Nighttime Low Temperature Change
Spring
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- Figures show the seasonal change in the seasonal maximum daytime and minimum nighttime temperatures (in degrees F) from 1950-2006 Temperature increases are seasonal Warmer winter nights are responsible for overall average increase Might not personally be aware of this change as sleep through it. Note: Summer and autumn show little change
Temperature Extremes
Sub-zero nightsmuch less frequent
Very hot dayslittle change
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- Figures show change in the number of days below zero (left) and above 90 (right) from 1950 to 2006 - Extreme temperature trends are consistent with the previous slide
Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze
Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950
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- Figures show actual change in the latest spring frost (left) and earliest fall frost (right) Warmer winter means a 1-4 week longer growing season for most of state Ag producers are very aware of this change. Change is less significant in the southern edges of the state.
Annual Average Precipitation Change
Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑7” - ↓4” since 1950
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Figure shows change in actual annual precipitation from 1950-2006 Rainfall has been more variable by location (note drought in north central) Figure shows change in actual annual precipitation for Madison from 1970-2010 Madison data indicates a wet trend Dane County has seen a 5-7” rainfall increase in the past 56 years Scientists don’t know why this is happening. Over time expect some of the variability to decrease.
- Statistical downscaling of climate projections across the East and central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
- Objective to statistically downscale global climate model simulations to scales relevant for decision makers (around 10 km resolution)
WICCI Climate Assessments and ProjectionsUW-Center for Climatic Research
DownscalingRegion
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The UW Center for Climatic Research did the research that the following data is based upon. Used the mid-range model data set.
• Primarily warmer winter and nighttime temperatures
• More frequent hot summer days and heat waves
• Moderate increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation
• Significant increase in rain during winter and spring
Summary of Wisconsin’s Projected Climate
Short term variability (weather) and extreme eventscannot be projected
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The remaining climate data is projected data again developed from the UW Center for Climatic Research and their mid-range model. The modeling and projection used the timeframe of 1980-2055. A 75 year span and a 41 year look ahead. In general we can expect the above. The next slides will provide a bit more detail on these projections.
Projected Change in Mean Annual Temperature+6⁰F 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
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Figures show projected change in average annual temperature from 1980 to 1955. - Projected annual mean temperature has low geographic variability at Wisconsin's scale
Projected Change in Peak Temperatures1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
10-25 days >90⁰F 0-5 days >100⁰F
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Increase in number of projected hot days more relevant in terms of geographic variability. Note that most of the change is in the 90-100 degree range. Very little over 100 degrees.
Projected Change in Max Temperature by Season 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Winter +6-7⁰F Spring +5-6⁰F
Fall +6⁰FSummer +4-5⁰F
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Figures show projected change in average seasonal temperature from 1980 to 1955. - Variability in seasonal average maximum daily temperature indicates more warming during winter.
Vulnerability to Heat
Since 1982, heat waves have caused more deaths (216) than all other natural disasters combined - NWS
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Heat wave is defined as a prolonged period (generally 5 days) of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. A heat wave is measured relative to the usual weather in the area and relative to normal temperatures for the season. Note prevalence of heat wave deaths in urban Southeast Wisconsin This is 1982-2012 data findings.
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation+5-15% 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
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Figures show projected change in annual rainfall from 1980 to 2055 as a percentage Upper Midwest projected to become wetter Projecting only modest changes in precipitation.
Projected Change in Precipitation by Season 1980-2055 (SRES A1B)
Winter +20-25%
Summer +0-5%
Spring +10-20%
Fall +5-10%
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Figures show projected change in seasonal rainfall from 1980 to 2055 as a percentage Most of the increase projected for fall-winter-spring. - This suggests summers will be drier as it will be warmer with no projected change in precipitation.
Reduced yields
Uncertain profits
More precip in Winter and Spring = Drought
An incentive to irrigate?
Summer +0-5%
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- Figure from previous slide - For every 2 degrees F of summer warming, reduced yields for corn (13%) and soybeans (16%)
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Projected increase in number of days of 2” rain from 1980 to 2055 In Dane County projecting about 2-3 more days per decade of 2” rains. Modeling cannot predict storms with higher rainfall amounts.
More frequent intense rainfall• Urban flash flooding from heavier rainfall• Sanitary sewer overflows• Increased runoff/nutrients
Climate Risks:
Liebl and Schuster11.75”
Milwaukee 7/22/10$37M damage
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- Milwaukee, July 22, 2010 - 6.73” in one hour, rainfall intensity would be 200-year (0.5%) storm, if 24 hours in duration 2,000 calls for sewer backups into basements. $37M in damages; sanitary sewer overflow of around 2 billion gallons closed Lake Michigan beaches. * Dane County has had historic flooding events in 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2008. Others? - Communities that have experienced extreme rainfall (>5”) understand their vulnerabilities. Communities that have not are at risk. - Risk to lakes and streams from early rain on open ground (or spread manure).
Designing and Facilitating the Process
High level project team1. Full-group awareness raising2. Sub-group vulnerability analysis3. Full-group vulnerability review and adaptation
brainstorming4. Subgroup adaptation planning5. Full-group and community outcome reporting6. Public Outreach and review7. Development of a Climate Change and Emergency
Preparedness Plan
Keep focus on risk from extreme conditions and not long-term trends
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Awareness raising was done with the preceding information along with publications and web-based reports and data from the WI Center of Climatic Research and the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Extension assisted in the designing and facilitating of this process and education. We will next discuss the vulnerability and adaptation planning steps
Identifying climate vulnerabilities and adaptations
Climate Parameters Considered:Temperature:
Annual Average Temp + 6 degree FAverage Max Temp + 6 degree FAnnual Peak Temp 110-112 degree F20 more days over 90More frequent and longer heat waves500 more cooling degree days
Precipitation:Annual precipitation +2” Rainfall frequency and intensity increasingExtreme rain event (6” in 24 hrs)Increased rainfall in winter and springIncreased groundwater recharge
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One of the ways that Extension assisted was to facilitate conversations concerning both vulnerabilities and adaptations within larger county departments such as land and water resources (stormwater (both urban and rural), groundwater, agriculture, natural resource protection, parks, weeds, crops, soil conservation, etc.) Other larger departments were Planning and Development, Health and Human Services. Departments and all entities represented had to fill out an Excel spreadsheet for eleven different climate change factors. How will projected changes in climate affect your work? e.g. More de-icing – Streets and Highways Prolonged heat waves – Public Health
Climate Vulnerability Worksheet
Changing Climate Conditions+A1:O17 Area of Responsibility or Activity Anticipated Impact Scope of Impact Time Frame of Change Consequence of Impact Vulnerability of Systems
Use the following (WICCI A1B) scenarios for mid-21st century
Name of department or other What exactly do you think will happen
How widely will it affect your operations
Immediate or deferred Why is the impact a problem
How will you recognize failure of the system
Temperature
Annual Average Temperature + 6⁰F
Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F
Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F
Twenty more Days over 90⁰F Public Health More / longer heat waves
Need plan for vulnerable people
Deferred Vulnerable people can sucumb to prolonged heat
Increased heat related deaths and hospital admissions
Five hundred more cooling degree days
More frequent-longer heat waves
Precipitation
Annual Precipitation +2"
Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing
Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)
Increased rainfall in winter and spring
Increased groundwater recharge
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- This spreadsheet was used by Dane County for organizing climate vulnerabilities and impact adaptation strategies - An example from the health department is provided
Adaptations Worksheet(pg2)
Estimated Risk to System Adaptation Opportunity Adaptation Goals Feasibility of Options Required Authority Potential Internal Partners Potential External Partners Time Frame of Implementation
High - Medium - Low Anything that can be done in anticipation of the impact
Who else should be involved When should it begin (or when can it begin)
High Identify vulnerable people and cooling shelters
Plan in place by 2014 Will require dedicating staff to plan dvelopment
Public Health Emergency Management, Police, Fire
Community organizations, Hospitals
Immediately
Vulnerability Assessment - Heat
Vulnerabilities:• Heat stress to employees• Demand for drinking water• Elderly and other heat-sensitive individuals• Roadway buckling• Increased utility costs
Scenario:• Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F• Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F• Twenty more Days over 90⁰F• Five hundred more cooling degree days• More frequent-longer heat waves
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Five hundred more cooling degree days means…. A heating degree day is a measurement designed to reflect the demand for energy needed to heat a building. Thus a cooling degree day is a measurement designed to reflect the demand for energy needed to cool a building such as a home or business to a comfortable temperature. To calculate a cooling degree day the mean daily temperature is converted to cooling degree-days by subtracting the reference temperature from the mean. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 80 F and a reference temperature of 65F would correspond to (80-65) , or 15 cooling degree-days. Higher values indicate warm weather and result in a high power production for cooling.
Vulnerability Assessment - Rainfall
Vulnerabilites: • Floodplains and surface flooding• At-risk road-crossings• Wells and septic systems• Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
Scenarios:• Annual Precipitation +2"• Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing• Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs)• Increased groundwater recharge
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Typical peak flow calculation for POTW, showing inflow storm scenarios.
The Climate Readiness Process Continued
Next steps:1) Full group climate vulnerabilities review2) Sub group: Assess the feasibility of adaptation strategies3) Full group adaptation review and look for commonalities4) Prioritize the higher and medium 5) Draft a plan for public review and input6) Implement adaptation strategies
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The entire group reviewed the data generated from the vulnerabilities assessment. Given more time to generate their adaptation strategies. Public outreach to with three public meetings with special invites to other municipalities – Middleton, Monona and Verona. A 16 page plan developed and finalized. and the highest priority items were incorporated into the 2014 county budget.
Dane County Outcomes• $40,000 - Radios vehicles to allow better communication during extreme weather
events.
• A new fund in the highway department budget dedicated to the replacement of outdated culverts under roads.
• $10,000 - Emergency sandbag fund to stockpile sandbags future high water events.
• $636,000 - Four-wheel drive, all-weather sheriff’s vehicles to improve emergency response during extreme weather.
• $100,000 - Track driven tree remover to clear downfalls from high winds.
• $60,000 - Blizzard Buster plows to maintain access during severe snowstorms.
• $380,000 for a special climate educational exhibit for the Dane County Zoo.
Current Work
• Approached a smaller city in Dane County who attended the county’s informational meeting on climate change planning
• Waiting to see if they are interested in moving forward with incorporating climate change resiliency into plans they are currently updating
UW-Extension’s engagement on climate change
₋ Climate and weather are fundamental influences on prosperity
₋ Community attitudes about climate change affect decision making
₋ Extension’s evidence-based educational model and reputation are a source of information in the community
UW-Extension Programming
• Current weather extremes are consistent with the risk posed by climate projections.
• Communities that are prepared for today’s weather extremes will be better adapted to future conditions.
• What aspects of your workplan are affected by climate:• Economic Development• Natural Resource Planning• Local Government Services• Emergency Preparedness
Increase preparedness and mitigation activities with more time spent with local governments and first responders addressing hazard definition and potential mitigation solutions – Intergovernmental Coordination
Restrict new construction on hydric soil and other areas prone to flooding” – Land Use Planning
Establish policies for heat wave actions and site cooling centers; Perform floods studies using extreme rainfall scenarios – All Hazards Planning
Questions??
Mindy Habecker, Dane County UW-Extension, Madison, WI (608) 224-3718, [email protected]
David S. Liebl, UW- Cooperative Extension, and Department of Engineering Professional Development, Madison, WI (608) 265-2360, [email protected]
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Dane County Plan can be found at: http://www.countyofdane.com/press/details.aspx?id=3230