Deutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank Research #PositiveImpact DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 051/04/2021. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. September 13, 2021 An Introduction to Aviation Debt: Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates (EETCs), Aircraft Asset-Backed Securities (ABS), SGR Financings, and other types of Airline Secured Debt Douglas W. Runte, CFA Managing Director Head of Aviation Debt Research +1-212-250-9319 [email protected]Vivek John Research Associate [email protected]
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Deutsche BankResearch
Deutsche BankResearch
#PositiveImpact
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 051/04/2021. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED,PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
September 13, 2021
An Introduction to Aviation Debt:Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates (EETCs),Aircraft Asset-Backed Securities (ABS), SGR Financings,and other types of Airline Secured Debt
Douglas W. Runte, CFAManaging Director Head of Aviation Debt [email protected]
Load Factor Global Traffic Growth (RPK) Global Capacity Growth (ASK)
Global traffic has made a significant recovery from the depths of 1H2020, but remainswell below pre-pandemic levels.
Traffic growth has suffered periodic setbacks, particularly in early 2021, as Covid casesrise in various parts of the world and travel restrictions are tightened.
Load factors have shown steady improvement as airlines adjust their schedules to moreappropriately match depressed demand on many routes, particularly long-haulinternational.
Global Traffic Growth vs. Load Factor (Jan 2020 to Jul 2021)
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Global Scheduled Seats - Percentage Change
7
Source: OAG schedules analyser
Significant declines globally, with disparate results between and within regions. Countries with most severe travel restrictions, not surprisingly, show greatest declines in
traffic versus pre-pandemic levels. Mexico and, until recently, China have seen some of the strongest recoveries towards pre-
pandemic traffic levels. Domestic US is also an area of relative strength. Business travel and long-haul intercontinental travel remain relatively weak.
August 2021 versus historical Week of August 30 versus historicalCountries vs Aug-19 vs Aug-20 vs Jul-21United Kingdom -56.4% 15.8% 31.4%South Africa -57.5% 263.2% 20.8%India -27.2% 93.2% 18.6%Japan -49.4% -16.5% 12.0%Germany -48.3% 43.5% 8.5%Spain -25.5% 38.5% 8.1%France -31.3% 36.8% 6.4%UAE -52.2% 56.2% 3.6%Mexico -7.7% 86.5% 1.2%USA -15.6% 62.4% -0.2%Brazil -31.5% 137.2% -0.2%Singapore -81.7% 147.1% -0.3%South Korea -47.3% -6.4% -1.4%China -23.2% -15.2% -26.7%Australia -72.5% 54.8% -40.5%Global -34.3% 29.7% -3.3%
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
US capacity trends vs 2019
8
Note: (1) Based on schedule versus schedule data as of September 5, 2021.(2) Asia includes Australia/New Zealand markets; Latin America includes Caribbean markets.Source: Diio Mi and Deutsche Bank Airline Research
US scheduled capacity has shown sequential improvement through the summer and into the early Fall, although concerns around variants of Covid have tempered the outlook for further improvements.
Domestic travel is very strong, with domestic schedules in September 2021 actually above pre-pandemic levels, led by very strong travel to leisure destinations within the US.
International travel to Europe and Asia remains severely depressed, although each market has shown some recovery since early 2021.
Travel to LATAM has recovered strongly, with Mexico and Central America a key driver.
Total Industry - Domestic USTotal Industry - US to EuropeTotal Industry - US to AsiaTotal Industry - US to LATAMTotal Industry - US to Middle East / Africa
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
US air travel – traffic plateaus versus 2019 levels
9
Source: Transportation Security Administration, Deutsche Bank
US TSA Checkpoint Passengers (Current Year vs. 2019)
From Trough on April 15, 2020 Airplane Enplanements (2019, 2020 vs. 2021 YTD)
Travel in the US saw good recovery through much of the summer, before concerns aboutthe Delta variant created some softness towards the end of the summer travel season.
Traffic in the US has been hovering at approximately 80% of pre-pandemic levels, with theremaining gap driven largely by the severe depression in business and long-haul travel.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021 10
Source: Transportation Security Administration, Airlines 4 America
Significant variations in US passenger enplanements by region and state. Northeast and west coast are exceptionally weak, hurt by the sharp decline in business
travel and the lengthy closure of many tourist destinations within their states. More leisure-oriented destinations with fewer Covid-related restrictions have generally
seen relatively stronger passenger performance.
Significant variations in traffic by region and state
% Change in TSA Checkpoints
August 2021 vs. August 2019 July 2021 vs. July 2019
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Global Airline Profitability
12
Source: IATA
IATA: Industry-wide net losses large, but diminished in 2Q2021
Global airline profitability, as measured by IATA, reached its nadir in 2Q2020 beforebeginning a slow recovery as airlines adjusted expenses and traffic began to increase inmost parts of the world.
Financial condition of the industry overall is far worse than at the start of the pandemic,with many airlines taking on large amounts of debt (often high coupon) that will take yearsto pay down.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Parked Mainline Passenger Aircraft – July 2020, June 2021 vs. July 2021
Note: Data excludes 737 Max storageSource: Cirium, Deutsche Bank
Aircraft Fleet – sequential improvement in storage
15
Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21 Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21
Total Stored 29.0% 22.2% 20.6% 44.8% 35.7% 33.9%0.0 - 4.9 years 13.5% 8.0% 7.1% 26.0% 15.0% 14.1%5.0 - 9.9 years 24.2% 15.2% 15.4% 40.3% 29.5% 27.2%10.0 - 14.9 years 30.8% 24.4% 21.4% 51.8% 47.1% 44.6%15.0 - 19.9 years 38.4% 31.1% 27.6% 64.5% 57.0% 53.7%≥ 20 years 55.9% 47.1% 44.8% 68.3% 56.8% 55.0%
% Widebody Stored
Aircraft Age
% Narrowbody Stored
Storage of narrowbody passenger aircraft as a percentage of the fleet remains far lowerthan widebody aircraft across all age cohorts.
Storage rates for narrowbody aircraft are less than half those of widebody passengeraircraft across all age cohorts except for those older than 20 years.
Despite significant improvements in storage rates since the first half of 2020, particularlyfor narrowbody aircraft, storage rates remain exceptionally high for all age cohorts relativeto pre-pandemic levels. In November 2019, storage rates for the youngest narrowbodypassenger aircraft (those <5 years of age) measured 1.0% compared to 7.1% in July 2021.In November 2019, storage rates for the youngest widebody passenger aircraft (those <5years of age) measured 2.7% relative to 14.1% today.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Passenger Aircraft Storage – Narrowbody vs. Widebody (1990 – 2021YTD)
Note: Data excludes 737 Max storageSource: Cirium, Deutsche Bank
Aircraft Market Fundamentals – Operating Status
16
Widebody market was soft prior to the onset of Covid in early 2020 and the pandemic hasonly widened the gal between narrowbody and widebody storage rates.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Mainline Aircraft – In-Service Narrowbodies vs Widebodies
Note: Data excludes 737 Max storageSource: Cirium, Deutsche Bank
Aircraft Market Fundamentals – Operating Status
18
Narrowbody aircraft as a percentage of the global in-service fleet has been increasingsince 1997.
With the onset of the pandemic, narrowbodies as a percentage of the in-service fleet hasincreased.
The introduction of longer-range narrowbody aircraft will likely accelerate the percentageof narrowbodies as the percentage of the global fleet going forward, we believe.
Despite a rise in Covid cases in many parts of the world, storage rates for every regionexcept Africa (which represents less than 3% of the global fleet) improved sequentially fromJune 2021 to July 2021.
Storage of aircraft in Europe has improved dramatically since the start of the year, with theregion moving from the highest storage rate among five major air travel regions fromNovember 2020 to March 2021 to the lowest overall storage rate in July 2021. Storage inEurope in early 2021 peaked at 52% and has since improved to 21.7% in July 2021.
Storage of aircraft in Latin America also saw significant improvement from the start of theyear, moving from just over 30% in the first quarter of 2021 to 23.5% in July 2021.
Storage in North America improved from 27.7% in June 2021 to 25.3% in July 2021.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Aircraft Market Update – Changes in Grades
20
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: DB marketability grade unchanged since Covid; Red: DB Marketability grade downgraded since Covid; Green: Marketability grade upgraded since CovidSource: Company documents, Cirium, Deutsche Bank
Narrowbody (Excluding Regionals) Western Passenger Aircraft Type
Current PreviousPre-Corona
0.0 - 4.9 years
5.0 - 9.9 years
10.0 - 14.9 years
15.0 - 19.9 years
20.0 - 24.9 years
25.0 - 29.9 years ≥ 30 years
TotalStored
% Stored Backlog
A320neo A A A 92 (7%) 3 (12%) 95 7.4% 2,568A321neo A A A- 62 (11%) 1 (100%) 63 10.9% 2,956A320 A A A 55 (12%) 335 (22%) 326 (29%) 178 (33%) 106 (35%) 55 (42%) 26 (79%) 1,081 26.0% 17737-800 A A A 28 (3%) 192 (10%) 190 (15%) 98 (21%) 121 (29%) 629 13.1% 2737-8 A A A 219 (45%) 0 (0%) 219 44.3% 3,140A321 A- A- A- 56 (13%) 112 (16%) 59 (20%) 48 (33%) 57 (55%) 13 (48%) 345 20.4% 13A319 B+ B+ B+ 1 (4%) 7 (5%) 88 (25%) 117 (28%) 91 (32%) 1 (33%) 305 25.0% 69737-700 B+ B+ B+ 0 (0%) 1 (2%) 44 (15%) 94 (24%) 77 (36%) 216 22.5% 0A220-300 B B- B 13 (11%) 13 10.9% 434737-900/900ER B- B- B 2 (2%) 50 (17%) 27 (28%) 12 (32%) 6 (46%) 97 17.5% 0A220-100 C+ C+ C+ 4 (8%) 3 (60%) 7 13.0% 34A318 C+ C+ C+ 2 (18%) 0 (0%) 2 8.3% 0737-600 C+ C+ C+ 1 (100%) 12 (57%) 5 (56%) 18 58.1% 0737-9 C+ C+ C+ 6 (9%) 6 9.4% 103757-200 C C+ B- 15 (58%) 60 (43%) 59 (57%) 21 (55%) 155 50.2% 0757-300 C C+ C+ 1 (3%) 4 (20%) 5 9.1% 0717 C C C+ 31 (41%) 31 (44%) 62 42.2% 0737-300 C C C+ 40 (43%) 57 (61%) 32 (71%) 129 55.6% 0737-400 C C C+ 15 (54%) 44 (55%) 22 (55%) 81 54.7% 0737-500 C C B- 20 (41%) 48 (56%) 16 (76%) 84 53.8% 0MD-80/90 C- C- C- 41 (89%) 46 (61%) 89 (74%) 176 72.4% 0Other Narrowbody NA NA NA 22 (61%) 22 61.1% 792Total Narrowbody 538 (12%) 704 (15%) 737 (21%) 606 (28%) 674 (37%) 323 (54%) 228 (68%) 3,810 21.9% 10,128
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Aircraft Market Update – Changes in Grades
21
Widebody Western Passenger Aircraft Type
Current PreviousPre-Corona
0.0 - 4.9 years
5.0 - 9.9 years
10.0 - 14.9 years
15.0 - 19.9 years
20.0 - 24.9 years
25.0 - 29.9 years ≥ 30 years
TotalStored
% Stored Backlog
787-9 B+ B+ B+ 52 (12%) 10 (7%) 62 11.0% 320A350-900 B+ B+ B+ 54 (16%) 14 (38%) 68 18.0% 363787-8 B B B 12 (19%) 44 (15%) 1 (33%) 57 15.6% 39A330-300 B B B+ 14 (14%) 86 (30%) 70 (42%) 25 (29%) 30 (67%) 5 (100%) 230 33.1% 8767-300/300ER B- B- B 9 (33%) 2 (6%) 14 (29%) 42 (38%) 41 (48%) 17 (49%) 125 36.5% 0777-300ER B- B- B 6 (4%) 51 (14%) 51 (23%) 12 (26%) 120 15.7% 11787-10 B- B- B 3 (5%) 3 4.9% 125A330-900neo B- B- B 10 (18%) 10 17.5% 257A350-1000 C+ C+ B- 7 (13%) 7 12.5% 112A330-200 C+ C+ B 3 (11%) 43 (33%) 91 (53%) 66 (54%) 32 (73%) 235 47.4% 8777-200LR C+ C+ C+ 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 18 (42%) 1 (50%) 19 37.3% 0777-200ER C+ C+ B- 7 (100%) 25 (68%) 73 (60%) 95 (50%) 200 56.2% 0777-300 C C+ C+ 19 (95%) 28 (88%) 47 90.4% 0A340-300 C C C+ 2 (50%) 9 (45%) 17 (41%) 6 (67%) 34 45.9% 0A340-600 C C C+ 18 (95%) 33 (89%) 0 (0%) 51 89.5% 0767-200/200ER C C C+ 0 (0%) 3 (43%) 9 (82%) 12 63.2% 0767-400ER C C C+ 10 (67%) 4 (18%) 14 37.8% 0777-200 C C C+ 1 (100%) 4 (100%) 21 (100%) 14 (100%) 40 100.0% 0A380-800 C- C- C 20 (51%) 127 (91%) 58 (94%) 1 (100%) 206 85.1% 3747-400 C- C- C 20 (95%) 33 (73%) 8 (67%) 3 (75%) 64 78.0% 0A340-500 D D C- 4 (80%) 11 (100%) 15 93.8% 0A300/A310 NA NA NA 1 (100%) 0 (0%) 11 (61%) 8 (38%) 20 47.6% 0Other Widebody NA NA NA 5 (71%) 9 (28%) 0 (0%) 4 (80%) 18 40.0% 331Total Widebody 186 (14%) 400 (27%) 341 (45%) 299 (54%) 305 (54%) 85 (59%) 41 (54%) 1,657 33.9% 1,577
Aircraft Type
Grade Jul-21
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: DB marketability grade unchanged since Covid; Red: DB Marketability grade downgraded since Covid; Green: Marketability grade upgraded since CovidSource: Company documents, Cirium, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
EETC Structural Elements
EETCs (“Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates”) are a form of securedairline corporate debt with significantly higher credit ratings/credit qualitythan unsecured airline corporate debt
— Collateral:
– Modern aircraft that are usually core to an airline’s fleet
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Standard EETC Structural Elements (cont.)
— Security Interest:– Under Section 1110 of the US Bankruptcy Code,
bondholders can seize aircraft collateral in 60days if the airline defaults
– 7th Circuit Decision allows co-operation amongcreditors and enhances negotiating leverage withan airline in a default
– Non-US jurisdictions may be subject toprovisions of Cape Town Treaty and/or local lawthat provides for similarly rapid remedies tocertificate holders
– Aviation Working Group (AWG) providesrating of Cape Town compliance publicly(www.awg.aero)
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Standard EETC Structural Elements (cont.)
— Liquidity support: 18 months of liquidity (typically more for non-USEETCs) covering three interest payments to provide sufficient time torepossess and remarket any aircraft repossessed in a default without apayment default on interest for all tranches of virtually all issues
– Liquidity facility is only available to pay interest
– There is no liquidity facility or other dedicated source of funds atinception for any repossession/remarketing and other expenses ifneeded after an airline bankruptcy
— Tranching and Cross-subordination: Redirection of cash from juniornotes to senior notes in default to provide protection to seniortranches. Senior tranche generally is the controlling party in the eventof a default and directs rights and remedies (eg, aircraft repossession)
— Higher Ratings: As a result of these security provisions, EETCsgenerally have ratings between one and nine “notches” above theairline’s unsecured rating
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Standard EETC Structural Elements (cont.)
EETC cash flows
— When the airline is not in bankruptcy, cash flow from airline onequipment notes matches EETC P&I exactly
— Payments may not be modified by airline outside of bankruptcy
– If aircraft are parked, payments must be made in full (or in certaincases, certificates called)
– If aircraft have declined in value, payments must be made in full
– If an aircraft is lost, there is a pro rata par call (aircraft is required tobe insured) or substitution
— If an airline enters bankruptcy, it has the option in the first 60 daysunder Section 1110(a) of the bankruptcy code, to retain control of theaircraft by agreeing to make payments in full. If an airline exercisesSection 1110(a), you can not repossess aircraft unless there is a laterdefault.
– 1110(a) is an affirmation, not an assumption or reinstatement
– Occurs rarely and is not costless, but airline can renege on an1110(a) election in bankruptcy
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Aircraft financed with EETCs are usually important/essential to anairline’s operation, improving bondholders’ chance of a full recovery evenin the event of an airline bankruptcy
Post-9/11 structure with cross-collateralization and, especially, cross-default, improves security for bondholders and protects less-desirableaircraft collateral within EETC transactions
— Airline can no longer “cherry pick” aircraft to affirm and rejectwithout bondholder consent in bankruptcy
— This change is a significant strengthening of the structure
In late 2019, structure was altered to allow substitution of aircraft— Can substitute any aircraft at any time for any reason
– Aircraft do not need to be same type
– Age must be the same or younger
– Value must be same or higher (but “value” not well defined)
– Ratings must not be negatively affected
— This change is a weakening of the structure, we believe
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
EETCs Ratings – Pre-Corona versus Current
EETC Ratings— Virtually all senior and many junior tranches were originally and remain investment-grade
– Ratings as high as double-A were possible at issuance, although since downgraded— Ratings were and remain up to 10 notches higher than underlying unsecured airline
36
Note: Unsecured Rating is based Bloomberg Composite Rating of Senior Unsecured Corporate Bond; EETC composite rating is of recent benchmark transactionSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Aircraft Lessor Debt: High volume since 20172010 – 2021YTD
Lessor issuance by type (2010 – 2021YTD)
Lessor issuance by type (2010-2021YTD) Lessor issuance by issuer (2010-2021YTD) Lessor debt by size (2010–2021YTD)
Note: Cumulative aircraft lessor issuances from 2010 to 2021YTD, including predecessor companies. Data as of September 7, 2021.Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Comparison of Pre-COVID deals and Post-COVID deals
Select changes to aircraft ABS (2019 deals & 2021 deals)
41
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Cirium, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
A number of important changes have been made to improve the strength of the structures.
Most importantly, the DSCR calculation has been changed from a six month look-backto three months, accelerating the timing of a triggering event in a downturn.
Less positively, the utilization calculation remains difficult to trigger, even in a severedownturn.
Single Twin Freighter Single Twin Freighter Class A Class B Class A Class B Class A Class B2019 92.4% 7.6% 0.0% 86.1% 13.9% 0.0% 66.2% 78.0% 82.4% 97.0% 113.5% 135.0%2021 88.8% 7.5% 3.8% 77.9% 16.7% 5.4% 64.3% 75.8% 89.8% 106.4% 89.0% 105.5%
Transaction Year
% Units % Cirium Market Value Initial LTV (OM) Initial LTV (Cirium) Current LTV (Cirium)
Simple Weighted Mean MedianNorth
America EuropeAsia
PacificMiddle
EastLatin
America Africa Off Lease2019 5.3 3.8 3.7 10.6 10.4 11% 17% 41% 7% 11% 3% 10%2021 8.9 3.8 3.7 6.0 6.0 43% 23% 26% 2% 6% 0% 1%
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Comparison of Pre-COVID deals and Post-COVID deals
Select changes to aircraft ABS (2019 deals & 2021 deals)
42
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Cirium, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
Other structural changes Faster amortization schedule, rent collections test, minimum aircraft test, more
favorable security deposit features and other minor beneficial changes. Other non-structural changes
Initial loan-to-values (per OM appraisals, but not Cirium generic Market Values) haveimproved slightly, average age of aircraft in transactions has gotten materially younger,average DB marketability grade remains quite high, North America averages a higherpercentage of 2021 transactions, with a resulting improvement in airline counterpartyquality, longer remaining lease term.
Single Twin Freighter Single Twin Freighter Class A Class B Class A Class B Class A Class B2019 92.4% 7.6% 0.0% 86.1% 13.9% 0.0% 66.2% 78.0% 82.4% 97.0% 113.5% 135.0%2021 88.8% 7.5% 3.8% 77.9% 16.7% 5.4% 64.3% 75.8% 89.8% 106.4% 89.0% 105.5%
Transaction Year
% Units % Cirium Market Value Initial LTV (OM) Initial LTV (Cirium) Current LTV (Cirium)
Simple Weighted Mean MedianNorth
America EuropeAsia
PacificMiddle
EastLatin
America Africa Off Lease2019 5.3 3.8 3.7 10.6 10.4 11% 17% 41% 7% 11% 3% 10%2021 8.9 3.8 3.7 6.0 6.0 43% 23% 26% 2% 6% 0% 1%
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Performance Analysis: Feb 2020 to Aug 2021
Sharp decline in collections, then general but inconsistent improvement
Source: Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
45
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Avg. DSCRAvg. Revenue ($,000s)
Rent Payment Utilization Rent End of Lease Payments Others DSCR (RHS)
August Results
Rent payments were up 5.4% sequentially from July 2021. Utilization rent saw a 2.6% sequential decline from July 2021. Other revenue increased 18% sequentially, driven by aircraft sales by two
transactions. Average DSCR declined slightly from 0.75x in July 2021 to 0.74x in August 2021.
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Performance – DSCR Analysis
Financial performance of transactions – Sorted by DSCR
Note: Average DSCR is based on the later of 1Q 2018 or the date the transaction started reporting DSCR.Break-up of heat map - No Color: ABS transaction not issued or DSCR not available during the period; Green: all tests passed; Yellow: DSCR ≤ 1.5;Orange: Cash Trap Event triggered; Red: Rapid Amortization Event triggered.Source: Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Performance – DSCR Analysis
Financial performance of transactions – Sorted Alphabetically
Note: Average DSCR is based on the later of 1Q 2018 or the date the transaction started reporting DSCR.Break-up of heat map - No Color: ABS transaction not issued or DSCR not available during the period; Green: all tests passed; Yellow: DSCR ≤ 1.5;Orange: Cash Trap Event triggered; Red: Rapid Amortization Event triggered.Source: Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
49
All recent generation aircraft ABS transactions had virtually same ratings bytranche at issuance prior to the pandemic.
– A-tranche rated single-A category
– B-tranche rated triple-B category
– C-tranche rated double-B category
Ratings diverged significantly post-coronavirus
All aircraft ABS transactions placed under review and/or downgraded post-coronavirus
— June 2020: 26 of 136 tranches downgraded by one or more agencies
— September 2020: 128 of 136 tranches downgraded by one or more agencies
— September 2021: 131 of 146 tranches downgraded by one or more agencies
— Largest A-tranche downgrade was nine notches from single-A to single-B
Transactions with weaker airline lessees, shorter average lease terms, lowerDSCRs pre-coronavirus and a higher percentage of widebody aircraft aregenerally most vulnerable to downgrades, we believe
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Other Aviation Collateral: Slots, Gates, Routes, Spares
Spare Parts Strengths
— Spares, if in a sufficiently large pool and cross-defaulted, are usually veryimportant if not essential to original airline obligor’s operations and ability torestructure successfully in bankruptcy
— Spares often new and virtually certain to be subject to Section 1110— Spares generally have more transparent pricing than aircraft— Aircraft parts are a worldwide commodity and are mobile assets— Demand for spares are not normally fully correlated geographically— Spares can be transported around the world to where need is greatest
Weaknesses— Collateral can consist of thousands of parts among numerous different
locations– Where are “my” parts?
– May be physically challenging to repossess, particularly in liquidation— Spares have little value without a chain of control and records
– Where are “my” records and where have “my” spares been since birth?– May be challenging to obtain and verify, particularly in liquidation
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Other Aviation Collateral: Slots, Gates, Routes, Spares
Ground equipment, simulators, real estate, maintenance facilities Strengths:
— Real estate (like a headquarters) may be worth something to someone otherthan an airline, improving marketability
— Ground equipment (tugs, carts, belt loaders, etc.) can literally be driven awayand easily moved to another carrier if repossessed
— Sims are in demand for popular aircraft types and are mobile (to some degree) Weaknesses:
— Ground equipment depreciates rapidly, can be “lost” and is easily replaced— Maintenance facilities are usually tailored to a specific airline and are of little
use to other potential airline users; maintenance facilities often have little valuefor non-airline uses
— Simulators depreciate more rapidly than aircraft— Simulators are specific to a particular aircraft type— Simulators may not be of significant value to many other airlines— Real estate may or may not be attractive given location and design features
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Other Aviation Collateral: Slots, Gates, Routes, Spares
Slots, Gates, Routes (these are not synonyms) Slots
— The right to take off and land at a particular airport with physical capacitylimitations (generally runways and related air-traffic control constraints) at aparticular hour
Gates— A leasehold on a lease or other airport agreement that generally provides the
right to use a particular jetway and associated holdroom (ie, waiting area) for afinite time period
— Gates and associated airport facilities can generally not be pledged ormortgaged directly, since they are usually owned by an airport or municipalityor airport corporation; instead, a leasehold is granted
Routes— The authorization, usually under treaty or other inter-governmental agreement,
for an airlines to fly between one or more city pairs in different countries— Route authorities with service limitations are becoming rare and are
increasingly replaced with “Open Skies” agreements which effectively allowunlimited service (subject to other non-regulatory constraints)
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Other Aviation Collateral: Slots, Gates, Routes, Spares
Slots, Gates, Routes (these are not synonyms) Strengths:
— Routes, slots and gates can be very valuable if scarce (and they each often are)— Can often not be replicated easily or at all by the operating airline or its competitors— Slots at physical constrained airports are extremely valuable, as it is impossible to
operate at such an airport without them— Leaseholds on gates can be similarly valuable at physically constrained airports -
many airports have no room for terminal expansion or an expansion would takemany years with many obstacles
Weaknesses:— Transfer or sale of routes may be politically challenging, even if nominally permitted— Route authorities can be modified / revoked / changed or competing route
authorities granted by unilateral government action— Slots can be modified / revoked / changed by unilateral government action— Route authorities increasingly rare as they are replaced with “Open Skies”
agreements— Security interest in leaseholds on gates may not necessarily be perfected, recorded
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Security Interest of Slots, Gates and Routes
Routes
Long but distant history of route authorities being used as collateral and sold to others— Pan Am’s Pacific Routes to United in 1980s
— TWA’s London Routes to American in 1990s
— Pan Am’s Latin Routes to United in 1990s
— Few recent transfers, as restrictive route authorities generally replaced with Open Skies
– Open Skies generally allows unlimited flying between two or more countries
— Collateral often used in Exit Facilities and explicitly approved by the Court at exit
— Collateral pledge of routes and related collateral not challenged in airline bankruptciessince at least 2000, that we are aware of
Gates
Leasehold mortgage can be transferred, but rarely that we are aware of— Continental/Eastern Terminal at LaGuardia to US Airways and ultimately to Delta
— Granting of leasehold is often not perfected or otherwise recorded
— Transfer of leasehold may be precluded by agreements with airport or other parties
— “…it is likely that most, or possibly all, gate leaseholds included in the collateral will beunavailable to satisfy obligations under the notes in the event of foreclosure on thecollateral, and you should not rely on the value of any gate leaseholds….”
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Loyalty Programs, Intellectual Property, Brands
Loyalty Programs and associated Intellectual Property
— Relatively new form of financing for the airline sector
— Pledges assets that are critical and likely essential for airline in bankruptcy
– Affirmation factor appears very high in an operating bankruptcy
– Significant rating uplift as a result of high affirmation factor
— Value of assets if extremely high to issuing airline, much less so to others
– Liquidation of airline would likely cause severe impairment to security
— Cash flow generation of pledged assets dependent on contractualarrangements between parties that represents, for the airline, a form of internaltransfer value (eg, price of miles sold versus miles redeemed)
— Assets are intangible and not subject to Section 1110 as are aircraft and parts
– Contractual features and cash flow pledge may provide significantinducement for airline to continue payments in bankruptcy even in theabsence of Section 1110
— Broader question for “essential” secured debt with expectation of affirmation
– When a substantial part of an airline’s obligations are secured by“essential” assets that seemingly require affirmation, is every essentialcreditor effectively an unsecured-like creditor
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
— Market Value: The most likely trading price that may be generated foran aircraft under the market circumstances that exist at the time inquestion. Assumes that the aircraft is valued for its “highest and bestuse” and that there is no unusual pressure for a prompt sale, with anadequate time for marketing to prospective buyers
— Base Value and Market Value generally assume “half-time” condition
– Physical condition is average for an aircraft of its type and age
– Maintenance time status is at mid-life, mid-time
– Benefits to half-time condition can be given if aircraft is new ornearly new
— Base Value and Market Value can be “desktop” or more specific
– No physical inspection of aircraft or review of its maintenancerecords made for desktop appraisal
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
— Distressed Value: Price at which an aircraft (or other assets such as anengine or spare parts) could be sold in a cash transaction underabnormal conditions – typically an artificially limited marketing timeperiod, the perception of the seller being under duress to sell, an auction,a liquidation, commercial restrictions, legal complications, or other suchfactors that materially reduce the bargaining leverage of the seller andgive prospective buyers a significant advantage that can translate intoheavily discounted actual trading prices
— Appraisal values can be maintenance-adjusted based on actualmaintenance status of the aircraft (often used in aircraft ABS)
– Appraisals do not accord any value to attached leases & EOLpayments unless specified
— ISTAT definitions of appraised value are available at www.istat.org
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
Notes & Comments to Airline EETCs Debt Summary
Notes:(1) Collateral is effectively cross-defaulted and cross-collateralized. Reference bond documents for complete information.
(2) Collateral is cross-defaulted at maturity. Reference bond documents for complete information.
(3) Certain aircraft are subject to Section 1110. Reference bond documents for complete information.
(4) Aircraft not Section 1110 eligible but are Cape Town eligible. Reference bond documents for complete information.
Comments:
• Collateral market values for aircraft based on Cirium September 2021 Indicative Market Values.
• Distressed Values based on "haircuts" to Cirium Market Value based on an assessment of the marketability ofparticular aircraft types as well as aircraft age.
• Distressed Value Adjustments to Market Value by Aircraft Grade:
• Distressed Value Adjustments to Market Value by Aircraft Age:
• LTV and Coverage do not include any draws on liquidity facility or expenses
• Remaining Lease Term (RLT) - Red: RLT ≤ 2 years; Yellow: 2 years < RLT ≤ 4 years; Green: RLT > 4 years.
• Off lease aircraft - Green: No aircraft off lease; Yellow: 0% < Off Lease ≤ 10%; Red: Off Lease >10%.
• Lease Expirations - Green (both Narrowbody and Widebody): No lease expiry during the year; Yellow (Narrowbody): 0% < Lease expiry ≤ 15%; Red (Narrowbody): Lease expiry > 15%; Red (Widebody): Lease expiry > 0%.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Cirium, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes – Initial Rating vs. Current Rating
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: Not rated; Red: Rating downgraded by one or more rating agencies since issuance; Yellow: Rating placed on Watch by one or more rating agencies; Green: Rating upgraded by one or more agenciesSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
75
Portfolio Name ClassCoupon
(%)Debt
IssuedDebt
OutstandingInitial Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)Current Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)DCAL 2015-1 A-1 4.213 545.0 243.9 NR / A / NR / A NR / BB- / NR / BBBDCAL 2015-1 B 5.072 84.0 38.2 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / B- / NR / BBDCAL 2015-1 C 4.750 38.0 10.5 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / CCC / NR / CCCECAF 2015-1 A-1 3.473 459.4 65.4 NR / A / A- / NR NR / BB- / BBB / NRECAF 2015-1 A-2 4.947 590.6 458.4 NR / A / A- / NR NR / B+ / BBB / NRECAF 2015-1 B-1 5.802 160.0 87.2 NR / BBB / BBB / NR NR / B- / BB / NRSHNTN 2015-1 A 4.750 747.4 362.4 NR / A / A / NR NR / BBB+ / A / NRSHNTN 2015-1 B 5.750 60.5 33.4 NR / BBB / BBB / NR NR / BB+ / BBB / NRCLAST 2016-1 A 4.450 715.0 165.6 NR / A / NR / A NR / A / NR / A-CLAST 2016-1 B 6.150 130.0 30.5 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BBB / NR / BBB-BBIRD 2016-1 AA 2.487 200.0 85.4 NR / AA / NR / AA NR / AA / NR / AABBIRD 2016-1 A 4.213 540.0 385.3 NR / A / NR / A NR / A / NR / A-BBIRD 2016-1 B 5.682 60.0 42.8 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BBB / NR / BBB-LAFL 2016-1 A 4.300 603.0 435.1 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / BBB+LAFL 2016-1 B 5.682 106.0 81.8 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BB+MRLN 2016-1 A 4.500 209.0 102.6 NR / A- / NR / A NR / BB+ / NR / BBBMRLN 2016-1 B 6.500 25.1 8.7 NR / BBB- / NR / BBB NR / B+ / NR / CCCMRLN 2016-1 C 8.500 16.7 5.9 NR / B+ *- / NR / BB NR / CCC+ / NR / CCCFLCON 2017-1 A 4.581 315.0 92.4 NR / A / NR / A NR / A- / NR / A-FLCON 2017-1 B 6.300 65.0 21.2 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BBB- / NR / BBB-FLCON 2017-1 C 8.500 30.0 9.8 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / BB / NR / B-PROP 2017-1 A 5.300 300.0 141.6 NR / NR / NR / A NR / NR / NR / BBBPROP 2017-1 B 6.900 57.0 28.3 NR / NR / NR / BBB NR / NR / NR / BBPROP 2017-1 C 9.550 54.0 21.8 NR / NR / NR / B NR / NR / NR / CCCTBOLT 2017-1 A 4.212 253.4 152.9 NR / A / NR / A NR / A / NR / A-TBOLT 2017-1 B 5.750 69.3 44.9 NR / BBB- / NR / BBB NR / BBB- / NR / BBB-TBOLT 2017-1 C 4.500 22.0 10.7 NR / BB / NR / BB- NR / BB / NR / CCCAASET 2017-1 A 3.967 479.5 191.8 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBBAASET 2017-1 B 5.926 88.5 37.3 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BBAASET 2017-1 C 7.385 44.3 10.3 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / B-
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes – Initial Rating vs. Current Rating
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: Not rated; Red: Rating downgraded by one or more rating agencies since issuance; Yellow: Rating placed on Watch by one or more rating agencies; Green: Rating upgraded by one or more agenciesSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
76
Portfolio Name ClassCoupon
(%)Debt
IssuedDebt
OutstandingInitial Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)Current Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)SJETS 2017-1 A 3.967 657.8 481.1 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB / NR / BBB+SJETS 2017-1 B 5.682 81.0 63.6 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB / NR / BB+SJETS 2017-1 C 7.021 42.0 30.1 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B / NR / CCCMETAL 2017-1 A 4.581 430.0 243.4 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / B / BBMETAL 2017-1 B 6.500 86.0 49.0 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / CCC / BMETAL 2017-1 C1 8.000 55.0 28.8 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCMETAL 2017-1 C2 9.750 13.8 12.7 NR / NR / B / B NR / NR / CCC / CCCWAVE 2017-1 A 3.844 393.3 292.3 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB / NR / BBB+WAVE 2017-1 B 5.682 57.8 46.0 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB / NR / BB+WAVE 2017-1 C 6.656 28.9 20.5 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B / NR / CCCHAIL 2017-1 A 4.000 445.2 223.5 NR / A / NR / A NR / BB- / NR / BBBHAIL 2017-1 B 5.682 68.3 35.0 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / B / NR / BBHAIL 2017-1 C 8.000 66.3 42.0 NR / B / NR / B NR / CCC / NR / CCCKDAC 2017-1 A 4.212 565.0 422.9 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB / NR / BBBKDAC 2017-1 B 5.926 95.5 73.9 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB / NR / BBKDAC 2017-1 C 7.385 62.0 44.5 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B+ / NR / CCCAASET 2018-1 A 3.844 351.7 171.5 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / B / BBB+AASET 2018-1 B 5.437 58.6 30.1 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / CCC / BB+AASET 2018-1 C 6.413 32.0 14.3 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCSAPA 2018-1 A 4.250 633.0 381.7 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+SAPA 2018-1 B 5.926 97.0 58.7 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+SAPA 2018-1 C 7.385 38.4 27.1 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCMAPS 2018-1 A 4.212 415.0 286.4 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / A-MAPS 2018-1 B 5.193 55.0 37.9 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BBB-MAPS 2018-1 C 6.413 36.5 28.4 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B+ / NR / CCCCLAST 2018-1 A 4.125 731.2 499.3 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / BBB+CLAST 2018-1 B 5.300 114.6 88.8 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BB+CLAST 2018-1 C 6.625 65.5 52.5 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCC
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes – Initial Rating vs. Current Rating
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: Not rated; Red: Rating downgraded by one or more rating agencies since issuance; Yellow: Rating placed on Watch by one or more rating agencies; Green: Rating upgraded by one or more agenciesSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
77
Portfolio Name ClassCoupon
(%)Debt
IssuedDebt
OutstandingInitial Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)Current Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)STARR 2018-1 A 4.089 430.0 284.1 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / A-STARR 2018-1 B 5.315 120.0 87.9 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BBB-STARR 2018-1 C 6.899 36.9 26.9 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B+ / NR / CCCTBOLT 2018-1 A 4.147 375.0 330.6 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+TBOLT 2018-1 B 5.071 75.0 67.0 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+ZCAP 2018-1 A 4.605 336.6 224.3 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB- / NR / BBB+HORZN 2018-1 A 4.458 476.0 405.8 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / BBB+HORZN 2018-1 B 5.270 91.0 82.0 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BB+HORZN 2018-1 C 6.657 45.0 42.6 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCKSTRL 2018-1 A 4.250 319.8 268.9 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBBKSTRL 2018-1 B 5.500 59.6 53.5 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BBSPRITE 2017-1 A 4.250 457.0 288.6 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB / NR / BBB+SPRITE 2017-1 B 5.750 88.0 57.8 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB / NR / BB+SPRITE 2017-1 C 6.900 40.0 21.1 NR / BB / NR / BB- NR / B+ / NR / CCCAASET 2018-2 A 4.454 488.3 385.4 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+AASET 2018-2 B 5.433 73.4 64.4 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+AASET 2018-2 C 6.892 51.4 44.4 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCMAPS 2019-1 A 4.458 325.7 272.6 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / BBB+MAPS 2019-1 B 5.560 72.4 65.5 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BB+MAPS 2019-1 C 7.385 31.0 27.1 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B+ / NR / CCCCLAST 2019-1 A 3.967 679.4 506.3 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+CLAST 2019-1 B 5.095 115.0 85.7 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+CLAST 2019-1 C 6.899 73.2 66.0 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCSTARR 2019-1 A 4.089 382.0 231.0 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+STARR 2019-1 B 5.095 69.0 44.6 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+STARR 2019-1 C 6.413 23.0 14.5 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCJOL Air 2019-1 A 3.967 456.1 385.2 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / BBB+JOL Air 2019-1 B 4.948 73.8 66.9 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BB+JOL Air 2019-1 C 4.000 23.8 24.6 NR / NR / NR / NR NR / NR / NR / NR
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes – Initial Rating vs. Current Rating
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: Not rated; Red: Rating downgraded by one or more rating agencies since issuance; Yellow: Rating placed on Watch by one or more rating agencies; Green: Rating upgraded by one or more agenciesSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
78
Portfolio Name ClassCoupon
(%)Debt
IssuedDebt
OutstandingInitial Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)Current Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)PION 2019-1 A 3.967 428.0 381.1 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBBPION 2019-1 B 4.948 75.0 71.0 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BBPION 2019-1 C 6.900 26.0 24.7 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCAASET 2019-1 A 3.844 300.3 233.4 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBBAASET 2019-1 B 4.948 54.6 48.8 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BBAASET 2019-1 C 7.500 25.0 22.7 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCHORZN 2019-1 A 3.721 375.0 329.6 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / A-HORZN 2019-1 B 4.703 69.0 65.9 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BBB-HORZN 2019-1 C 6.900 41.0 40.9 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCSLVRR 2019-1 A 3.967 443.0 401.5 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / BBB+SLVRR 2019-1 B 4.948 73.0 68.8 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BB+SLVRR 2019-1 C 6.900 32.0 31.0 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / BB / CCCWAVE 2019-1 A 3.597 555.5 501.2 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB+ / NR / A-WAVE 2019-1 B 4.581 81.7 78.3 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB+ / NR / BBB-WAVE 2019-1 C 6.413 40.8 41.9 NR / BB / NR / BB NR / B / NR / CCCAASET 2019-2 A 3.376 430.3 366.6 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / A-AASET 2019-2 B 4.458 77.7 68.4 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BBB-AASET 2019-2 C 6.413 32.4 31.9 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / BB / CCCMACH 1 2019-1 A 3.474 403.0 321.1 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / A-MACH 1 2019-1 B 4.335 74.0 64.3 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BBB-FLCON 2019-1 A 3.597 404.1 272.5 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / BBB+FLCON 2019-1 B 4.791 73.5 50.2 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BB+FLCON 2019-1 C 6.656 36.7 29.2 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / B-HORZN 2019-2 A 3.425 343.0 316.3 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / A-HORZN 2019-2 B 4.458 61.0 59.5 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BBB-HORZN 2019-2 C 6.900 36.0 36.7 NR / NR / BB / BB- *+ NR / NR / BB / CCCRPTOR 2019-1 A 4.213 553.0 419.8 NR / A / NR / A NR / BB+ / NR / BB+RPTOR 2019-1 B 5.193 116.5 90.6 NR / BBB / NR / BBB- NR / B+ / NR / BRPTOR 2019-1 C 6.900 56.5 47.3 NR / BB / NR / BB- NR / CCC / NR / CCCTBOLT 2019-1 A 3.671 370.0 315.7 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / A-TBOLT 2019-1 B 4.750 67.0 58.0 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BBB-
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
ABS Rating Changes – Initial Rating vs. Current Rating
Note: Break-up of heat map - No Color: Not rated; Red: Rating downgraded by one or more rating agencies since issuance; Yellow: Rating placed on Watch by one or more rating agencies; Green: Rating upgraded by one or more agenciesSource: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company Documents, Deutsche Bank
79
Portfolio Name ClassCoupon
(%)Debt
IssuedDebt
OutstandingInitial Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)Current Rating
(Moody's / S&P / Fitch / KBRA)TLWND 2019-1 A 3.967 510.0 341.5 NR / A / NR / A NR / BBB / NR / A-TLWND 2019-1 B 5.193 81.0 61.3 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BB / NR / BBB-TLWND 2019-1 C 7.000 46.0 36.7 NR / BB / NR / BB- NR / B- / NR / CCCSTARR 2019-2 A 3.536 355.0 24.4 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / B / BSTARR 2019-2 B 4.581 56.6 3.9 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / B- / B-STARR 2019-2 C 6.656 34.7 2.0 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / CCC / CCCAASET 2020-1 A 3.351 325.7 296.6 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / BBB+AASET 2020-1 B 4.335 56.3 55.2 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BB+AASET 2020-1 C 6.413 26.9 27.3 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCSAPA 2020-1 A 3.228 490.0 418.1 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / A / BBB+SAPA 2020-1 B 4.335 86.0 80.4 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BBB / BB+SAPA 2020-1 C 6.779 44.0 43.8 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCLUNAR 2020-1 A 3.376 325.8 158.6 NR / NR / A / A NR / NR / BBB / A-LUNAR 2020-1 B 4.335 53.6 26.4 NR / NR / BBB / BBB NR / NR / BB / BBB-LUNAR 2020-1 C 6.413 29.7 16.8 NR / NR / BB / BB NR / NR / B / CCCCLAST 2021-1 A 3.474 476.3 418.5 A2 / NR / NR / A A2 / NR / NR / ACLAST 2021-1 B 6.656 118.5 103.7 Baa2 / NR / NR / BBB Baa2 / NR / NR / BBBCLAST 2021-1 C 7.000 79.7 66.5 B2 / NR / NR / NR B2 / NR / NR / NRMAPS 2021-1 A 2.521 417.7 412.3 A1 / A / NR / NR A1 / A / NR / NRMAPS 2021-1 B 3.425 72.2 71.3 Baa1 / BBB / NR / NR Baa1 / BBB / NR / NRMAPS 2021-1 C 5.437 50.2 49.0 Ba1 / BB / NR / NR Ba1 / BB / NR / NRSLAM 2021-1 A 2.434 592.4 586.3 A1 / NR / NR / A A1 / NR / NR / ASLAM 2021-1 B 3.422 70.7 70.0 Baa1 / NR / NR / BBB Baa1 / NR / NR / BBBBBIRD 2021-1 A 2.443 630.0 626.7 NR / NR / NR / A A1 / NR / NR / ABBIRD 2021-1 B 3.446 115.0 115.0 Baa1 / NR / NR / BBB Baa1 / NR / NR / BBBCLAST 2017-1R A 2.741 315.0 315.0 NR / A / NR / A NR / A / NR / ACLAST 2017-1R B 3.924 75.0 75.0 NR / BBB / NR / BBB NR / BBB / NR / BBBCLAST 2017-1R C 6.500 60.0 60.0 NR / B- / NR / B NR / B- / NR / B
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021 91
Definition:
• Type: Arrangement of seats on either side of the aisle(s) in a typical coach configuration.• Design Seats: Manufacturer's indicative seating in one, two or three-class configuration / Maximum one-class seating
based on government regulations (i.e., exit limits) or technical limitations.• Actual Seats: The average and median of the estimated in-use seating capacity of each aircraft in the current fleet.• Deliveries: Years that the aircraft was delivered to customers or is expected to be delivered to commercial customers.
This number may differ from the first and/or last build year.• List Price: Manufacturer's list price (for in-production and offered aircraft only).• Engines: Division of engine type by number of units for current fleet and aircraft on order.• Fuel/Thrust: Fuel capacity of aircraft (rounded to nearest hundreds) / Maximum specified thrust available on aircraft
variant (rounded to nearest thousands) x number of engines.• Range: Manufacturer's specified range of most capable version of aircraft type in nautical miles and equivalents.• MTOW: Manufacturer's specified maximum takeoff weight. Length/Span: Exterior length of aircraft and its wingspan.• Fleet/In-Service/Stored: Number of aircraft that are in-service or stored / Number of aircraft in-service / Number of aircraft
stored but not yet permanently retired (all numbers from Cirium).• Fleet Age/Backlog (%)/Retired (%): Average age of fleet / Aircraft on order but not delivered (backlog as a % of the total
fleet) / Aircraft retired or scrapped, excluding conversions (retired/scrapped as % of all aircraft built)• Operators: In-Service/Fleet/Total: Number of operators with aircraft in-service/Number of operators with aircraft in-service
or parked/Number of operators with aircraft in-service, parked or on order.• HHI: In-Service/Fleet/Total: The HHI of the aircraft type calculated for (1) all planes in-service; (2) all planes in-service and
parked and (3) all planes in-service, parked and on order. HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) measures concentration -from 10,000 (one operator has 100% of fleet) to near zero (a large number of operators with a small number of aircrafteach).
• Grade/Outlook: The marketability of the type ranging from 0.0 ("F") to 4.0 ("A"). Evaluates the relative difficulty of placingan aircraft type. Outlook is potential direction of grade in 1-3 years.
Notes:
• Cirium data is as of August 31, 2021.
Notes to Aircraft Operating Data & Fleet Statistics
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021
15/09/2021 13:01:26 2010 DB Blue template
Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request
Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/CompanySearch. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/ on each company’s research page. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.
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Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Doug Runte
Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021 93
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Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thusreceiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the movein the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterpartyexposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constraincurrency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments tomacroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – byconstruction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates(i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk.Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements.
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Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021 94
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Douglas W. Runte, CFA | +1-212-250-9319 | [email protected] 13, 2021 95
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Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record based on trading actual client portfolios, simulated results are achieved by means of theretroactive application of a backtested model itself designed with the benefit of hindsight. Taking into account historical events the backtesting of performance also differs from actual account performance because anactual investment strategy may be adjusted any time, for any reason, including a response to material, economic or market factors. The backtested performance includes hypothetical results that do not reflect thereinvestment of dividends and other earnings or the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. No representation is made that anytrading strategy or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Alternative modeling techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different results and prove to be moreappropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results are neither an indicator nor guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from the analysis.
The method for computing individual E,S,G and composite ESG scores set forth herein is a novel method developed by the Research department within Deutsche Bank AG, computed using a systematic approachwithout human intervention. Different data providers, market sectors and geographies approach ESG analysis and incorporate the findings in a variety of ways. As such, the ESG scores referred to herein may differ fromequivalent ratings developed and implemented by other ESG data providers in the market and may also differ from equivalent ratings developed and implemented by other divisions within the Deutsche Bank Group. SuchESG scores also differ from other ratings and rankings that have historically been applied in research reports published by Deutsche Bank AG. Further, such ESG scores do not represent a formal or official view ofDeutsche Bank AG.
It should be noted that the decision to incorporate ESG factors into any investment strategy may inhibit the ability to participate in certain investment opportunities that otherwise would be consistent with yourinvestment objective and other principal investment strategies. The returns on a portfolio consisting primarily of sustainable investments may be lower or higher than portfolios where ESG factors, exclusions, or othersustainability issues are not considered, and the investment opportunities available to such portfolios may differ. Companies may not necessarily meet high performance standards on all aspects of ESG or sustainableinvesting issues; there is also no guarantee that any company will meet expectations in connection with corporate responsibility, sustainability, and/or impact performance.