An Integrated Approach for Mitigation and Adaption ...

An Integrated Approach for

Mitigation and Adaption Activities in Canada’s Protected

Heritage Areas

Marlow G. Pellatt

Parks Canada's Mandate On behalf of the people of Canada, we protect and present nationally significant examples of Canada's natural and cultural heritage and foster public understanding, appreciation and enjoyment in ways that ensure their ecological and commemorative integrity for present and future generations.

Parks Canada System of Protected Areas

Issue

• The impacts of human caused climate change on society, ecosystems, and biodiversity has emerged as one of the most pressing issues of our time.

• Ecological Restoration and Intervention Ecology will be one of the most important tools of the trade.

• It is critical that Parks Canada and other

protected area management organizations take on a leadership role in science, adaptation, education, and communication on how climate change is affecting the treasured heritage resources that belong to all Canadians – past, present and future.

• Mitigation is critical BUT,

• Given the level of carbon dioxide already released into the atmosphere since industrialization, the adaptation of species, communities, and ecosystems needs to be the front and centre in our efforts to conserve biodiversity and protected heritage resources from the site to the systems level.

Concerns Regarding Ecosystem Change

• The land (alpine/tundra, treeline, coastal squeeze, phenological mismatch, grasslands, fire, disease, invasives, melting ice sheets…..).

• Freshwater (temperature changes, loss of hypolimnion, melting glaciers, eutrophication).

• The ocean (acidification, warming, circulation changes, salinity changes).

An Ice free Northwest Passage Implications for Lancaster Sound

IMPACTS

Expansion of Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia and Alberta from 2002-06 to 2007-11 and displacement vectors (http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pages/49).

Challenges

•Given that the IPCC has concluded that Earth’s

climate is very likely changing at a pace

unprecedented in the last 10,000 years, how do we

best protect the values of our protected heritage

areas for ourselves and for future generations?

Challenges – Public and Institutional Buy in

• How do we communicate and incorporate this into the learning and experience of our staff, visitors, and the public as a whole?

• There will be pressure to reconsider what the perceived function of protected areas as the ecosystems, iconic features (i.e., glaciers, beaches) and societal pressure for resources within them begin to change.

• There will be a need to critically assess the purpose of a particular protected heritage area if we want it to continue to be relevant to Canadians.

It is time for Action • Foundational Work exists:

– IPCC – IUCN – NRCan – Environment Canada – Numerous NGOs and Academics – USNPS So......

Opportunities for Parks and Protected Areas Agencies

• Large intact ecosystems on land and sea – legislated protection.

• Excellent science to inform decision-making • Existing partnerships and cooperative

arrangements • Carbon-rich ecosystems • Existing visitor and outreach programs • Potential to contribute to a coordinated science

strategy that integrates climate change considerations and includes a key role for parks and protected areas

Key to a successful science strategy is its implementation and operationalization in our protected heritage resources. We already have the tools (i.e., ecological restoration, monitoring, communication, planning) we just have to read off of new blueprints. By doing so we can move a climate change program forward in a fiscally responsible manner utilizing, and embedding into, well-developed programs existing throughout the country.

What to think about? Integration

• Parks Canada Agency Act • Canada National Parks Act • Canada National Marine Conservation Areas Act • Historic Sites and Monuments Act • Heritage Railway Stations Protection Act • Historic Canal Regulations pursuant to the Department of Transport Act • Heritage Lighthouse Protection Act •Species at Risk Act • EA 2012

Integration

• Protected Area Establishment • Natural and Cultural Resource Conservation • Public Appreciation and Understanding • Visitor Experience

In order to effectively develop a successful science strategy to address the effects of climate change on our protected areas we must work among program areas in an integrated manner.

Protected Area Establishment

• The establishment of heritage areas will need to incorporate climate change information into their systems plan and establishment decisions. This is particularly pertinent to northern parks and NMCAs.

• By incorporating well designed climate change information such as bioclimate envelope models, ecologically persistent features, physical bottlenecks, redundancy, sea level change models etc., the long-term relevance of the new heritage place will be greatly increased.

Climate Change Considerations Conservation Strategy (Modified from Lindenmayer et al 2010)

Mitigation Adaptation

Emission Reduction

Bio-diverse Carbon Capture •Ecological Restoration •Timing of natural disturbance regimes •Management for EI with carbon sequestration as a co-benefit

Tackling stressors leading to biodiversity loss •Habitat loss and fragmentation •Invasive species

Preparing for major natural disturbances •Safe havens

Strengthening off-reserve conservation •Community and resource sector conservation cooperation

Securing the reserve system •Biodiversity •Representivity •Climate Refugia •Ecologically persistent features and geophysical diversity •Adequate size •Appropriate distance between reserves

Appropriate Connectivity •Cross environmental connectivity •Temporal Connectivity

Effective Ecological Monitoring •Biological, ecological responses to climate change

Other •Novel Ecosystems •Uncertainty

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Modelling at Scale Relevant to Land Managers

• Down-scaled bioclimate envelope models

• Geo-referenced species data

• Information regarding temporal connectivity

Scale Issues

CGCM2 a2

CGCM2 a2

Bioclimate Envelope Modeling

for Garry Oak Ecosystems

Figure 11: Climatically suitable habitat for Garry oak using scenario A2 (temporally connected) between 2010 and 2099. Green represents the location of protected areas. Light blue represents temporally connected Garry oak habitat. Dark Blue represents temporally connected Garry oak habitat within existing protected areas. Red represents actual occurrence of Garry oak.

Natural and Cultural Resource Conservation

• Incorporating the best available knowledge into management cannot be understated. – We cannot do this alone – partnership is critical

• Every National Park, NMCA, Historic Site, Canal, cultural resource management plan, fire management plan, and species at risk recovery plan will need to consider climate change impacts, adaptation, and in some cases mitigation into their planning and management.

• Intervention Ecology will be the logical inclusion/extension of many ecological restoration program.

Ecological Restoration • The process of assisting the recovery of

ecosystems that have been degraded, damaged, or destroyed.

Suding, K.N. 2011 Toward an Era of Ecological Restoration: Successes, Failures, and Opportunities Ahead Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2011. 42:465–87

• More than a third of the studies (35%) documented complete and relatively rapid (ranging from 10 to 40 years) recovery. The remaining studies found either mixed measures of recovery (35%) or no recovery in any measured variable (30%).

Restoration Critical But Use Caution as Compensation Tool

• In compensation, estimation of the likelihood of restoration success is essential because future gain is uncertain whereas the immediate loss is permanent.

• In an assessment of 16 fish habitat compensation projects throughout Canada, which required reporting of fishery production, Quigley & Harper (2006) found that 63% of the sites experienced net losses in productivity whereas 12% achieved a net gain.

Critical Mechanisms

• Convergence Toward a Target Goal. – This scenario is most likely where abiotic conditions are relatively uniform, shifting

alongside biotic changes, and where the species pools are relatively intact

• Unintended Divergence Across Restoration Sites. – This scenario may indicate that some restoration sites need additional attention to

abiotic conditions, such as reducing nutrient loads or increasing flooding frequency, or that some sites have lower restorative potential than others (e.g., prairies in loamy versus sandy soil.

– Variability could also indicate additional dispersal constraints or propagule pressure owing to landscape location.

• Trajectories That Deviate from Target Goals.

– Failure • The genetic structure of the introduced populations can strongly influence success, where

ensuring both local adaptation and genetic diversity can be challenging • In many cases, restoring the disturbance regime does little to undo the entrenchment of an

undesired set of species. • Historical legacies, such as effects of invasive plants on soil communities, species priority

effects, and biophysical habitat changes, may be important factors.

• Environmental Change.....

Intervention Ecology • Interventions are intended to maintain a system in a current

desirable state or to move a system away from a current undesirable state.

• Interventions can be categorized as reactive, active, and proactive.

Assisted Migration • “Assisted population migration: The human-assisted

movement of populations (with different genetic makeup) of a given species within that species’ current range (i.e., where it would naturally spread);

• Assisted range expansion: The human-assisted movement of a given species to areas just outside its current range, assisting or mimicking how it would naturally spread; and

• Assisted long-distance migration: The human assisted movement of a given species to areas far outside its current range (beyond where it would naturally spread)”.

Bl - sub-alpine fir - Abies lasiocarpa Ba - amabilis fir - Abies amabilis Bg - grand fir - Abies grandis Cw - Western redcedar - Thuja plicata Cy - Yellow cedar - Callitropsis nootkatensis Hw - western hemlock - Tsuga heterophylla At - trembling aspen - Populus tremuloides Ep - paper birch - Betula papyrifera Ss - Sitka spruce - Picea sitchensis Sx - interior spruce - Picea glauca X P. engelmannii Lw - Western larch - Larix occidentalis Fd - Douglas-fir - Pseudotsuga menziesii Pli - lodgepole pine - Pinus contorta Pw - white pine - Pinus monticola Py - ponderosa pine - Pinus ponderosa

Seeds from 15 species growing in BC and neighbouring US states were planted between 2009 and 2012 at 48 reforestation sites from northern California to southern Yukon O’Neill and others.

Active Management “Reasoning” Framework

At Risk No Immediate Risk

Extent of risk/impact to Ecological Integrity Feasibility of success Priority of protected heritage resource, ecosystem, or species

Structure

Function Process

Composition

Closed System (ponds, gardens, specific habitat projects)

Open System (migrating species, rivers)

Resilience

Connectivity

Type of Intervention (Reactive, Active, and Proactive

Management Actions)

Transformation (Guide change) Drift

(Accept Change)

Restoration (Bring to past state or

Resist change)

*Recovery

Scale of Project (Spatial and Temporal)

Change in disturbance regimes

Ecosystem functionality

Monitoring

Intervention Goal(s)

Climate Change

Define Issue

Research

Climate refugia, temporal connectivity, spatial connectivity,

Persistent drivers of change

Hyperabundant species

Alien/exotic species.

Habitat fragmentation

Pollution

*Recovery - Possible Outcomes •Convergence toward a target goal. •Unintended divergence across restoration sites. •Trajectories That Deviate from Target Goals i.e., Failure •Ecological Trajectories •Novel Ecosystems •Tipping Points and Thresholds

Local to landscape scale projects and plans. Discrete Projects vs. Long-Term

Adaptive Capacity

Culturally Relevant Research Monitoring

Clear Vision Long-term Commitment Ecosystem Services & Natural Capital

Integration Among Program Areas Design Feasibility

Engaging to Visitors and Public

Outreach and Communication

Outcome Evaluation Educational or Interpretive Restoration/Intervention Projects

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Active Management Intervention should be based on an Outcomes-based approach

Self -willed Active Management

Species

Carbon Mitigation

A 100-year conservation experiment: Impacts on

forest carbon stocks and fluxes

Sharma, Kurz, Stinson, Pellatt, Li

In a Nut Shell • Carbon mitigation can be a co-benefit of

management for EI.

• Lots and Lots of Caveats........

Study Area

Figure 7e. Cumulative Ecosystem C stock changes

Climate Change Effects: Restoration, Species Conservation and Intervention?

Where the rubber hits the road - what can we do to: 1. Enhance resilience

2. Increase Connectivity

3. Understand temporal connectivity and climate

refugia.

4. Understand species responses to CC 1. Protect SAR 2. Keep the common species common.

5. Novel and Engineered ecosystems

Why We Care?

Mitigation and Adaptation: The language of the GOC & IPCC.

• Adaptation (to climate change). Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

• Mitigation. An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the

sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

Considerations • Novel or No-Analogue Ecosystems. • Shifting Baselines • Ecosystem Services • Ecological Resiliance

• Although climatically suitable Garry oak habitat will increase somewhat, primarily in the USA, it will not be well represented in IUCN Classes I through V Protected Areas (5.6 to 7.3%).

• Of this area only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be “temporally connected” between 2010 and 2099.

Visitor Experience • The people of Canada, and the world, will continue to visit

and enjoy our protected heritage sites. • We will need to be responsive to visitor safety in a changing

environment but will also benefit from the potential of an extended visitation period at some sites.

• There will also likely be an increase in interest in what Parks Canada is doing about climate change – this is where we can shine – showcasing the work of the dedicated staff in Parks Canada as well as our engaged partners. Interpretive messaging and activities will be essential to build support for the work we will be doing to help our protected areas adapt to climate change.

• COMMUNICATE, ENGAGE, INFORM, ENRICH

Integrated Approach to Program Implementation

• Best Available Science and Knowledge related to climate change affects on our heritage places.

• Integration of P.A.s and functional groups. • Implementation of program at parks and sites.

Components • Approach to Climate Change Science

integrating all appropriate programs regarding. – Impacts, Mitigation, Adaptation

• Assessment • Planning • Communication • Action

Science • Internal capacity and partnerships to

generate the best available science that increases our understanding of climate change and its effects.

• Analyse potential CC impact and adaptation information and apply it to planning, natural and cultural resource conservation, operations, and ER VE.

• Mitigate • Communicate.

Science - Partners • We need the best available science to make

informed decisions. • Partners include OGDs, NGOs (including climate

change research consortiums like PICS and Oranous), Universities, International bodies (IUCN, USNPS, Landscape Cooperatives).

• Community and Public Involvement • Develop our own Climate Change Science

Cooperatives with our partners.

Protect, Connect Restore Plus Change

• We can develop a comprehensive strategy regarding human caused climate change that can be integrated into all program areas and in the management of all our protected heritage areas.

Public Appreciation, Understanding, and Visitor Experience

• Parks Canada and BCParks are in the unique position to touch the lives of many people in Canada and throughout the world.

• We have an advanced Public Outreach and External Relations capacity and are actively engaged with stakeholders and a diverse number of partners. – Communication of climate change effects and what we can and

cannot do about it.

• There is, and will continue to be, a need to educate and work with Canadians in order to promote our actions regarding climate change. – Schools, universities NGOs, OGDs, and especially the USNPS and

landscape cooperatives. – Businesses, permit holder, local stakeholders, interested public. – Public safety issues will become prominent as CC progresses.

Integrated Science Strategy among Program Areas and Partners

USNPS

Implementation • Existing programs

– Monitoring, Ecological Restoration, Species Conservation.

– Action on the Ground. – Targeted Projects – CPC – Communication

• Partners • Visitors