An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and Warnings Peter G. Black NOAA/AOML/HRD James Franklin NOAA/NCEP/TPC 59th.

An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind An Impact of SFMR Surface Wind Observations on Hurricane Landfall Observations on Hurricane Landfall Forecasts and WarningsForecasts and Warnings

Peter G. BlackPeter G. BlackNOAA/AOML/HRD

James FranklinJames FranklinNOAA/NCEP/TPC59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference7-11 March, 2005Jacksonville, Florida

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

Demonstrated accuracy compared to GPS dropsonde observations (Uhlhorn and Black, 2003)

1616 AOC Operational SFMR flights into Frances, Ivan, Jeanne- 2004

Pioneered new recco strategy: drop GPS sondes at SFMR surface wind radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt (Uhlhorn, Rogers- HRD)

Comparison with ‘04 dropsondes and HRD prototype SFMR (Uhlhorn, next talk)

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

April, 2003- Lockheed completes study report on adaptation of SFMR to WC-130J aircraft- recommends pod design.

Summer, 2003- Design and fabrication of P3 wing pylon for operational SFMR.

Summer, 2003- Second SFMR ordered from Pro-Sensing with improved real-time self-calibration.

Operational SFMROperational SFMRAntenna and ElectronicsAntenna and ElectronicsCylinder LayoutCylinder Layout

Operational SFMR Pod on 43RF, left wing looking aftOperational SFMR Pod on 43RF, left wing looking aft

Operational SFMR Pod on 43RF left wing, looking forwardOperational SFMR Pod on 43RF left wing, looking forward

Close-up of operational SFMR Pod under left wing- prototype SFMR Close-up of operational SFMR Pod under left wing- prototype SFMR fuselage-mounted antenna in background above yellow ladder.fuselage-mounted antenna in background above yellow ladder.

Operational SFMR antenna mounted inside left wing PodOperational SFMR antenna mounted inside left wing Pod

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

FRANCES FRANCES (1) 5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLETHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

(2) 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROPMEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATEDPRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THESTEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF

THE NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. ……INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTSINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

SFMR 2005- Transition from SFMR 2005- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

FRANCES FRANCES (3) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADIIESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN

PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLECOAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.

(4) 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS

CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COASTSTORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

IVAN IVAN (5) 5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTEDTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCYMICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 PLANE CURRENTLYINVESTIGATING IVAN.

(6) 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASEDTHIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF IVAN IS

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 929 MB ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 115-120 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT.THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT.

(7) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933

MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAKTHE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT. IT APPEARS THAT IT APPEARS THAT

IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOLIVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY.

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

JEANNE JEANNE (8) 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE

RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

(9) 5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004THIS AFTERNOON...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATINGJEANNE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...BUT AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF

ONLY 95 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 76-KT SURFACE WIND...WHERE A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT WAS REPORTED IN THE SAME WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KTINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT

(10) 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WINDDATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OFJEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OFSTRENGTHENINGSTRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT 5000 FEET AND

THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KTTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Operational System to ReccoOperational System to Recco

2003- Lockheed SFMR feasibility study

GOAL for 2004, accomplished:–NWS SFMR statement of need–Obtained Supplemental support for

funding of SFMR system for WC-130J aircraft flown by AFRC 53rd WRS

WC-130J SFMR Pod-mount InstallationWC-130J SFMR Pod-mount Installation

WC-130J Pod-Mounted SFMR Installation blow-up.WC-130J Pod-Mounted SFMR Installation blow-up.

SFMR 2004- Transition from SFMR 2004- Transition from Prototype to Operational SystemPrototype to Operational System

Aug, Sep 2004- One pod-mounted AOC operational unit, HRD/IWRS prototype and UMASS research SFMR participate in first operational SFMR flights

2004 RESULTS: – 16 flights in 3 landfalling storms over 3 weeks– Documented impacts on 10 advisories, all at 5 pm– Supplemental support achieved for accelerated validation– Supplemental support achieved ($10.5M) for SFMR transition to WC-130J

reconnaissance aircraft OUTLOOK FOR 2005

– Pylon-mounted operational SFMR mounted on both NOAA WP-3D aircraft: spare ready in case of unit malfunction (see Al Goldstein AOC poster)

– Industry support in place (see Ivan Popstefanija ProSensing poster)– Accelerated evaluation, calibration effort in place (Eric Uhlhorn- next talk)– Sustained evaluation, calibration design in place for 2005 and beyond (JHT)– Interface with AFRC and Lockheed on AFRC operational SFMR units– Implement SFMR on NOAA G-IV aircraft

SFMR 2004- Acknowledgements SFMR 2004- Acknowledgements and Thanksand Thanks

Bob Dumont, Sam WilliamsonSam Williamson, Floyd Hauth, Bill Barney (OFCM)– 1980, 1990’s: SFMR maintenance contracts (HRD sharing)– 1990’s: IWRS/HRD prototype, dipole antenna for WC-130– 2002: funds for 2 AOC operational units– 2003: funds for 3rd AOC operational unit with matching AOC support

of engineering, pylon design and fabrication and SFMR cal upgrades Capt. Bob Maxson, Capt Steve Kozak (AOC) AOC engineering: Al Goldstein, Terry Lynch, Jim Roles - NOAA

implementation from 1984 (Earl) to 2004 (Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) Max Mayfield (Jerry Jarrell, Bob Sheets)- NHC operational support James Franklin (NHC), Gen D. L. Johnson- NWS statement of need Eric Uhlhorn (HRD)- SFMR validation Prof. Calvin Swift (NASA, UMASS)- SFMR inventor Dr. Mark Goodberlet (ProSensing, Inc)- designer Ivan Popstefanija (Quadrant, ProSensing)- industry implementation,

fabrication, pylon SFMR design (with NRL support) Louanne Powell, Col Steve Renwick- AFRC implement, LM study NOAA Legislative Affairs- 2004 Supplemental for AFRC transition