AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011

AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW2011

ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE

www.rich.co.ke

GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS

23rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei

The Translation

• "I didn't care about jasmine at first, but peoplewho are scared by jasmine sent out information about how harmfuljasmine is often, which makes me realize that jasmine is what scaresthem the most. What a jasmine!"

Mohamed Bouazizi – Tipping Agent

Gaddafi The Craziest Guy In The Room

Heightened Geopolitical Risk Lifts Crude

Crude Oil Post Bouazizi

Kenya Spent KES 250 BN 12 Months thr Feb 2011 +31% on

Crude Imports

The Mobile – A Game Changer – Signal To Noise-Gulliver and

Lilliputians

Food Price Index- All Time High

AFRICA THE BROADER CANVAS

"The first quarter of 2011 has been among the most turbulent in Africa's history.“AFDB

Statistics

2 Billion Consumers in 2050 A Billion Consumers Now Walmart Buys Massmart for $4.4 Billion Bharti Buys Zain for $10.7 Billion More Families in Africa who earn more

than $20,000 p.a. than in India China-Africa trade over $100 Billion

East Africa – The Region East Africa's economy is expected to show growth of 6.7

percent this year, from 6.2 percent in 2010 Regional GDP 2010 – Feel The Growth : Uganda 6.3% Tanzania 7.0% Rwanda 6.5% Sudan 5.9% Burundi 3.7% Kenya 5.6% A market of 160 Million Consumers

Pres. Museveni Upsizes His Oil Find To 10 Bn Barrels = $4 Trillion

at #Mindspeak

South Sudan Expected To Grow 20-25% GDP but currently

squeezed by Bashir

Kenya Exports Market changing Uganda overtaken UK as Kenya’s number

one trading partner Somalia, Sudan, DRC among Kenya’s top

10 export destinations

Reading the Kenyan Economy you need to be an Economist and a

Meteorologist

KENYA THE STATE OF THE NOW

Inflation surges to 12.95% from a cycle low of 3.1% in 2010

Bond Yields at 9 year highs The Shilling at an all time low The NSE 20 -8%

Kenya Shilling At An All Time Low

NSE 20 Index -8% in 2011

The ICT Revolution – Kenya as a Laboratory Experiment

Kenyan mobile phone subscriber numbers rose 28 percent to 25 millionlast year

Internet users stood at 10 million last December compared with 4 million in 2009, CCK said

Is the New Constitution a Tipping Point for Political Risk

Out of the last 4 elections we have mismanaged 3

ICC process – will it be cathartic? The Future is not seen in the Rear View

Mirror or is it?

Thank-You