An Earth system satellite mission? Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzi http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/eochem
Jan 11, 2016
An Earth system satellite mission?
Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzihttp://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/eochem
The Earth System
Mismatch between models and data
Talk outline
SolutionsExample science challengesConcluding remarks
Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
The velocity of climate change
Loarie et al, Nature, 2009
Ratio of temporal and spatial gradients of mean annual near-surface T = instantaneous local velocity necessary to maintain constant T
Some potential tipping points in the Earth system
Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?-- ESA ECVs-- EUMETSAT and NOAA activities
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
The NASA A-train is an example of the power of correlative measurements
But using correlative data properly is non-trivial…examples to follow
1. Source attribution of AODs
2. Quantifying pyroconvection injection heights
2 examples
Africa
We should think about systems as well as individual components
deposition
Primary and secondary aerosol sources: biomass
burning, biogenic, desert dust
Internally or externally mixed?
CCN
Fe fertilization
Ocean Ecosystem South America Africa
visibility
GlobAerosol AOD retrievals from
SEVIRI (0.6, 0.8, & 1.7m)
Prior information about aerosol type is required to infer AOD from observed
radiances using ORAC MAP
(SEVIRI = Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager)
maritime (0), urban (1), continental (2), biomass burning (3), and desert dust (4).
GlobAerosol AOD retrieval uses brute-force approach
Time of day
Day
s
Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models
SEVIRI Dust IndexGEOS-Chem: Black carbon Sea salt
GlobalAerosol MAP scheme
Prior:Dust
Sea saltBiomass burning
Sulphate
Idea
l
AODs
GlobalAerosol MAP scheme:
DustSea salt
Biomass burningSulphate
Inte
rrim
AODdust
AODss
AODbb
AODso4
Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models
Saharan Dust Index remove dust contamination in nighttime SSTretrievals.
PCA of brightness temperatures (3.9—8.7m, 2.9—12m, and 11—12m).
GEOS-Chem Chemistry Transport Model 3-D black carbon aerosol and sea salt distributions
BC evaluated via CO and TES
Bulgin et al, 2010Cloudy scenes identified by EUMETSAT cloudmask
Bulgin et al, 2010
Bulgin et al, 2010
Bulgin et al, 2010Large AOD differences has implications for
quantifying climate effects
Bulgin et al, 2010Future challenge will be to incorporate coexisting
aerosol classes
Estimates of global emissions from biomass burning
Biomass burning (Tg Element/yr)
All Sources (Tg Element/yr)
Biomass burning (%)
CO2 3500 8700 40
O3* 420 1100 38
CO 350 1100 32NMHC 24 100 24NOx 8.5 40 21
CH4 38 380 10
EC 19 22 86
WHERE AND WHEN? Polar-orbiting satellites have sufficient coverage to infer information about variability on timescales from diurnal to year-to-year
5-years of Terra MODIS data (11/00 – 10/05)
HOW BIG? Bottom-up emission estimates
M = A x B x a x b
Grams of dry matter burned per year
Total land area burned annually
The average organic matter per unit area
Fraction of above ground biomass relative average biomass B
Burning efficiency of the above ground biomass
Emission factors for flaming and smouldering fires
Forward model H
Inverse model
Observations yEmissions x
BB
BF
Top-down methodology
)]([ aobs
ap H xyKxx
Posterior Prior Gain matrix Observations Forward model
ap PKHP )( 1
)( aobs H xy
Top-down emission estimates based on inverse model calculations or process-based models
GFEDv2 CO Emissions for JJASO 2006 [g CO/m2]
Injection height Smoke entrained in
mean flow
Injection height is a complex function of fuel loading, overlying meteorology, etc
Transport of emissions depends on the injection height
NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer- MISR
In orbit aboard Terra since December 1999
Stereographic projection provides information about fire smoke aerosol height layer
9 view angles at Earth surface: nadir to 70.5º forward and backward (446, 558, 672, 866 nm)
275 m - 1.1 km sampling
Val Martin et al, 2010
We use CO as a tracer for incomplete combustion
We use cloud-free data from two instruments aboard the NASA Aura spacecraft (left):
Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES)
Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)
Over burning scenes, together they are sensitive to changes in CO from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere
i
i
im
y
e
m
e
y
We develop the traditional surface emission inverse problem
Both sides describe the sensitivity of the measured quantity y to changes in surface emissions e
We estimate emitted CO mass in five regions from 0 – 15 km.
During June-October 2006 we use 1785 TES profiles (672 colocated with MLS)
Omitting gory details, only 2-3% of retrievals failed.
Define an injection height as the maximum height at which:
1)Posterior uncertainty is smaller than prior by 50%
2)Posterior mass is higher than the prior mass
33% pass this criterion; remaining 67% assume boundary layer injection
•We estimate an injection height of greater than 10 km (recall we estimate mass over large vertical regions)
•Posterior CO mass increased by 50% due to biomass burning.
(Limited) evaluation of our product: Indonesia, October 2006
2 = cloud 3 = aerosol
Level of neutral buoyancy = 138 hPa
Nearby radiosonde
Disproportionate impact of large fires: Cctrl-Cptb
Longitude [deg]
Boreal (42-67oN)Tropics (0-30oS)Pr
essu
re [h
Pa]
Concluding remarksAtmosphere and land/ice/ocean missions are often on different platforms.
Planned ESA/NASA missions are driven by engineering rather than science
Now links realized between Earth components should we be designing Earth system missions?
Eg OCO-2: CO2 OCO-3: CO2/CH4/CO/leaf phenology?