Amtek Auto Ltd

Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt Ltd 1

Amtek Auto Limited

HOLD Target price: Rs.210.00 CMP: Rs. 175.00 Market Cap. : Rs.24675.00mn.

Date: November 13, 2009.

Key Ratios:

Particulars FY09

(12 m)

FY10E

(12 m)

FY11E

(12 m)

OPM (%) 37 39 39

NPM (%) 15 14 14

ROE (%) 6 6 6

ROCE (%) 5 5 5

P/BV(x) 0.99 0.93 0.88

P/E(x) 16.10 15.69 14.27

EV/EBDITA(x) 6.26 6.41 6.50

Debt equity ratio 1.03 1.07 1.10

Key Data:

Sector Automobile Ancillary

Face Value Rs.2.00

52 wk. High/Low Rs.239.30/42.25

Volume (2 wk. Avg.) 154999

BSE Code 520077

SYNOPSIS

• We initiated the coverage of Amtek Auto Ltd and set a

target price of Rs.200.00

• Amtek manufactures a wide range of components for

automotive applications, specialized in engine,

transmission and suspension systems. The company has

clients like Maruti, TVS, Hero Honda, Mahindra &

Mahindra, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors. It also has

presence in the US and UK.

• The company has raised an additional USD 25 million via

issue of foreign currency convertible bonds.

• Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned PR1+ rating to

Rs.1.50 billion (enhanced from an amount of Rs.

400millio) of Commercial Paper/Short Term Debt of

Amtek Auto (AAL).

• The company has delayed its planned merger of five

group firms into itself. The merger is now proposed to

happen by the end of this year or January 2010.

• The company & Sumitomo Metal Industries (Sumitomo

Metals) of Japan have signed a joint venture (JV)

agreement for production and sale of forged crank shafts

for automotive applications in India.

• Amtek Auto group is learnt to be in advanced talks to

acquire OCL Iron and Steel (OISL) controlled by Raghu

Hari Dalmia. The transaction would value the company

at around Rs 3.50 billion.

Share Holding Pattern:

V.S.R. Sastry

Vice President

Equity Research Desk

91-22-25276077

[email protected]

Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D.

Chief Research Officer

[email protected]


Table of Content

Content Page No.

1. Investment Highlights 03

2. Company profile 07

3. Company products 08

4. Peer Group Comparison 12

5. Key Concerns 12

6. Financials 13

7. Charts & Graph 15

8. Outlook and Conclusion 17

9. Industry Overview 18


Investment Highlights

• Result Updates (Q1FY10)

For the first quarter, the top line of the company decreased 15%YoY and stood at

Rs.2674.10mn against Rs.3155.10mn of the same period of the last year. The bottom

line of the company for the quarter stood at Rs.305.00mn from Rs.480.60mn of the

corresponding period of the previous year i.e. a decrease of 37%YoY.

EPS of the company for the quarter stood at Rs.2.16 for equity share of Rs.2.00 each.


Expenditure for the quarter stood at Rs.1997.90mn, which is around 15% lower than the

corresponding period of the previous year. Raw material cost of the company for the

quarter accounts for 64% of the sales of the company and stood at Rs.1698.90mn.

Employee cost stood at Rs.155.50mn from Rs.152.80mn. and accounts for 6% of the

revenue of the company for the quarter i.e., an increase of 2%YoY.

OPM and NPM for the quarter stood at 39% and 11% respectively from 31% and 15%

respectively of the same period of the last year.


• Allotment of Equity Shares

The company has allotted 2701846 equity shares at Rs. 148.40/- per shares upon the

conversion of FCCB's of US $ 8.245 million.

• Amtek Auto raises USD 25mn via FCCBs

The company has raised an additional USD 25 million via issue of foreign currency

convertible bonds. The firm on Sept 30 had raised USD 75 million via FCCBs. Jefferies

International is the lead manager to the issue.

Further, the company has also on Oct. 29, 2009 issued optional bonds on the same

terms and conditions as the previously issued bonds, taking a total offer to USD 165

million.

The FCCBs will be issued in reliance of regulations of the United States Securities Act,

1993 as amended. The FCCBs have not been and will not be registered under the

Securities Act or under any applicable state securities laws and absent registration or an

exemption therefore may not be offered or sold in the United States of America.

• Care assigns PR1+ rating to Amtek Auto

Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned PR1+ rating to Rs.1.50 billion (enhanced from an

amount of Rs. 400millio) of Commercial Paper/Short Term Debt of Amtek Auto (AAL).

The instrument would be carved out of the overall fund-based working capital limit of

the company. This rating is applicable for facilities/instruments having tenure up to one

year.

Facilities/instruments with this rating would have strong capacity for timely payment of

short-term debt obligations and carry lowest credit risk.

Instrument Last rated

amount

(Rs million)

Enhanced

amount

(Rs

million)

Rating

Commercial

Paper

400 1,500 PR1+

Total 400 1,500


• Amtek Auto clarifies on news item

The company clarified that American auto component giant Visteon`s investment

bankers has not approached the company for the sale of its plants and businesses.

The announcement was made with reference to a news item appearing in a leading

financial daily titled, `` Ford Parts Supplier looks for India Buyer`` which stated that

American auto component giant Visteon`s investment bankers have approached Delhi

based auto parts major Amtek Auto for the sale of its plants and businesses.

• Merger of Amtek Auto and subsidiaries

The company has delayed its planned merger of five group firms into itself. The merger

is now proposed to happen by the end of this year or January 2010.

The company had planned to merger Amtek India, Ahmednagar Forgings, Amtek Ring

Gears, Amtek Crankshafts and Amtek Castings India with itself.

• Amtek, Sumitomo Metal form JV for forged crankshafts

The company & Sumitomo Metal Industries (Sumitomo Metals) of Japan have signed a

joint venture (JV) agreement for production and sale of forged crank shafts for

automotive applications in India.

This JV is to be formed with investment of 50% by Amtek, 40% by Sumitomo Metals, and

10% by Sumitommo Corporation. Sumitomo Corporation is the global partner of

crankshaft business of Sumitomo Metals.

This is in line with Amtek`s strategy of augmenting its product portfolio. The company

will contribute to this JV, its existing local market and manufacturing know-how and

experience. Sumitomo Metals, on the other hand will bring in its world-class crankshaft

forging technology.

This JV will be another milestone for the Amtek Group and step forward in the direction

of consolidating its customer and product portfolio as well as attaining world-class

technological edge in automotive manufacturing. This also makes Amtek a full serviced

supplier of crankshafts for automotive applications as Amtek has already created market

leader position for itself in the field of fully machined crankshafts in India. This JV also

provides to Sumitomo Metals entry into the high growth crankshaft market of India.

This is based on Sumitomo Metals` corporate strategy to `add strength to strong areas.

`With this entry to India, Sumitomo Metals will have a global `tetra polar` production

system (Japan, US, China and India)


The automobile industry faces unprecedented difficulties, but the Indian automobile

market has been growing rapidly in recent years and local demand for forged

crankshafts is expected to surge significantly in the medium to long term.

• Amtek Auto in discussion to buy OCL Iron & Steel

Amtek Auto group is learnt to be in advanced talks to acquire OCL Iron and Steel (OISL)

controlled by Raghu Hari Dalmia. The transaction would value the company at around Rs

3.50 billion.

The company is looking at acquiring a steel company with captive iron ore and coal

mines as part of its strategy of backward integration. The company has begun the due

diligence process and is likely to close the deal early.

Company profile

Amtek Auto Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of auto components in India and

internationally. The major categories of components manufactured by the company include

connecting rod assemblies, flywheel ring gears and assembly, steering knuckles, suspension and

steering arms, cv joints, crankshaft assemblies, and torque links. The products are used for 2-3

wheelers, cars, tractors, light commercial vehicles, heavy commercial vehicles, and stationary

engines. It exports its products primarily to Europe, North America, Asia, Africa, the Middle

East, and South America. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in New Delhi,

India. The company is a part of Amtek Group.

The company's customers include Ashok Leyland Limited; Aston Martin; Bajaj Auto Limited;

BMW; Briggs & Stratton; CNH Global; CNH New Holland; Cummins; CYT; Dana Italia; Davis

Industries; Defence; Delco Machining; Eicher Motors Limited; Escorts; Fairfield; Fiat India; Ford;

General Motors; GE Transportation; GWK, Ltd; Hero Honda; Hindustan Motors; Honda

Scooters; Hyundai; International Tractors; Isuzu Diesel; Jaguar; JCB; John Deere; Kawasaki;

Ketlon Machining; Land Rover; LG Electronics; LML Limited; Luk Industries; Mahindra &

Mahindra; Maruti Suzuki; MDM; MG Rover; Mulhoff; Musashi Auto Part Pvt., Ltd; Navistar

General Motors; Perkins Engines; Rail; Saab; Sanden Corp; Scania; Sisu Diesel; Tallent

Engineering; Tata Motors; Tecumseh; Toyota; Unimotion Gears; and Yamaha Motors.

Subsidiaries

� Ahmednagar Forgings Limited ("AFL")

� Smith Jones Inc.


� Amtek Investments (UK) Limited/GWK Amtek Limited

� Amtek Gear Inc. (U.S.A.)

� Amtek Deutschland GmbH/Zelter GmbH

� Benda Amtek Limited

� Amtek Siccardi India Limited

Company products

Product portfolio

• Flywheel Ring Gears

• Machining

• Forging

• Casting Aluminium (HPDC & GDC)

• Casting Iron(HPDC & GDC)

Flywheel Ring Gears

• Starter Ring Gear

• Flex plate Assemblies (2 Piece)

• Flywheel Assemblies

Machining

• Steering Knuckles

• Ladder frames

• Engine bearing ladders

• Exhaust manifolds

• Aluminium Case Housings

• Bridge Fork Assemblies

• Hubs

• Spindles

• Connecting Rods

• Crankshaft

• Housings

• Gear Shifter Forks


• Front Axle Beam Assembly

• Crankshaft Assembly

• Conrod Piston Sub Assembly

• Flywheel Assembly

• Pivot Arms

• Flywheel Housing & Assembly

• Wheel Hubs

• PTO Casing

• Front Axle Beams

• Front & Rear Axle

Forging

• Connecting rods & Caps

• Crankshafts & Camshafts

• Steering Levers

• Gear shifter forks

• Sector gears & shafts

• Front Impact Beams Drive Shafts

• Spindlers

• Hubs & Flanges

• Transmission Components

• Steering Parts

• Pistons

• Propeller Fork Shafts

• Stub – Axle

• Front Axle Beam

• Front & Rear Axle Shaft

Casting Aluminium (HPDC & GDC)

• Clutch Cases

• Transmission cases

• Timing Chain Covers

• Mounting Brackets

• Camshaft Covers / Carriers

• Bearing Ladders / Sumps

• Structural Covers

• Differential Flange

Casting Iron (HPDC & GDC)


• Cylinder Block & Head

• Transmission Housings

• Brake Carriers & Caliper

• Trumpet casings

• Crankshafts

• Intake and Exhaust Manifolds

• Flywheels & Flywheel Housings

• Turbo Charger

• Bell Housings

• Linkshafts

Services

• Product Design

• Lean Six Sigma

Product Design

The Group has a Design and Development facility that fully supports to the customer

requirements. The facility offers design activity using 3D modeling, detailed FE analysis,

NVH Refinement and Kinematic analysis.

Latest Design Soft wares such as CATIA, C3P I-Deas, Unigraphics and Pro Engineer are

used. Data Exchange is done through Metaphase, FTP, ENOAT/ODETTE as well as

Internet, DAT tape etc.

Design engineers can work from customer’s premises, from company modern design

coordination centre at Letchworth, UK and from their well-equipped design centre in

India.

A key feature of the design process is the use of advanced CAE techniques such as

structural optimization of component topology and topography to meet customer-

defined targets for stiffness, strength, mass, NVH and fatigue performance. Linear and

non-linear analysis is undertaken as required to prove design integrity under all

conditions prior to first physical prototypes, thus reducing time between initial concept

and production readiness


Lean Six Sigma

Amtek is in the process of implementing Lean and Six Sigma. Six Sigma is a process of

reducing variation using a DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, and Control)

methodology. Lean Manufacturing seeks to identify and eliminate the source of waste

that exists within a process.

Lean & Six sigma will be followed in all the plants of Amtek. Each region & plant will

have a formalized & standardized infrastructure. This will include programme metrics,

project metrics & plant maturity metrics. Training will be provided for different people

at different levels based upon the needs of the organization. They have Champions, full

time Black Belts, Green Belts and we will have Master Black Belts. They have been

trained on Lean/Six Sigma and once trained these people can impart training down the

line. This role will help shape the Lean Six Sigma Strategy & Development within Amtek.

It will become a part of the Amtek Human Resource policy. Each business will

communicate the principles and progress of the Lean and Six-Sigma programme

throughout the business using the agreed communication tools to share, inform and

educate.


Peer Group Comparison

Name of the

company

CMP(Rs.)

(As on

November

13,2009)

Market Cap.

(Rs. Mn.)

EPS

(Rs.)

P/E (x) P/BV

(x)

Dividend

(%)

(FY08)

Amtek Auto 175.00 24675.00 9.62 18.56 1.01 25.00

Hindustan

Composites Limited 350.00 1925.00 4.13 84.75 8.30 0.00

Exide industries 118.75 95000.00 4.96 23.94 7.80 60.00

Motherson Sumi 131.25 46666.40 2.48 52.92 11.28 135.00

Bosch 4360.00 136899.20 164.82 26.45 4.42 250.00

Key Concerns

� Adverse Govt. policies

� Economic slow down.

� Highly competition

� Recession in global economy


Financials Results Update

12 months ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone):

Value(Rs. in million) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12m

Net Sales 12823.90 10522.00 11153.32 12268.65

Other Income 985.40 1399.50 1469.48 1616.42

Total Income 13809.30 11921.50 12622.80 13885.07

Expenditure -9427.60 -7979.70 -8309.22 -9140.15

Operating Profit 4381.70 3941.80 4313.57 4744.93

Interest -290.70 -628.10 -844.15 -928.56

Gross Profit 4091.00 3313.70 3469.43 3816.37

Depreciation -939.10 -1226.00 -1373.12 -1510.43

Profit before Tax 3151.90 2087.70 2096.31 2305.94

Tax -826.40 -555.30 -524.08 -576.48

Net Profit 2630.50 1532.40 1572.23 1729.45

Equity Capital 282.00 282.00 282.00 282.00

Reserves 23016.40 24548.80 26121.03 27850.48

Face Value (Rs) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Total No. of Shares 141.00 141.00 141.00 141.00

EPS (Rs) 18.66 10.87 11.15 12.27 *Year ending on June 30th


Quarterly ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone):

Value(Rs. in million) 31-Mar-09 30-Jun-09 30-Sep-09 31-Dec-09E

Description 3m 3m 3m 3m

Net Sales 2656.60 2521.90 2674.10 2807.81

Other Income - 819.20 360.70 378.74

Total Income 2656.60 3341.10 3034.80 3186.54

Expenditure -1824.00 -1887.80 -1997.90 -2097.80

Operating Profit 832.60 1453.30 1036.90 1088.75

Interest -171.90 -228.20 -225.70 -236.99

Gross Profit 660.70 1225.10 811.20 851.76

Depreciation -358.00 -358.00 -403.50 -423.68

Profit before Tax 302.70 867.10 407.70 428.09

Tax -77.40 -244.40 -102.70 -107.84

Net Profit 225.30 622.70 305.00 320.25

Equity Capital 282.00 282.00 282.00 282.00

Face Value (Rs) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Total No. of Shares 141.00 141.00 141.00 141.00

EPS (Rs) 1.60 4.42 2.16 2.27


Charts

• Net sales & PAT

• P/E Ratio (x)


• P/BV (X)

• EV/EBITDA(X)


1 Year Comparative Graph

Outlook and Conclusion

• At the market price of Rs.175.00, the stock is trading at 15.69 x and 14.27 x for FY09E and

FY10E respectively.

• On the basis of EV/EBDITA, the stock trades at 6.41 x for FY09E and 6.50 x for FY10E.

• Price to book value of the company is expected to be at 0.93 x for FY09E and 0.88 x for

FY10E respectively.

• EPS of the company is expected to be at Rs.11.15 and Rs.12.27 for the earnings of FY09E

and FY10E respectively.

• The company has allotted 2701846 equity shares at Rs. 148.40/- per shares upon the

conversion of FCCB's of US $ 8.245 million.

• The company has raised an additional USD 25 million via issue of foreign currency

convertible bonds. The firm on Sept 30 had raised USD 75 million via FCCBs. Jefferies

International is the lead manager to the issue.

• Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned PR1+ rating to Rs.1.50 billion (enhanced from an

amount of Rs. 400millio) of Commercial Paper/Short Term Debt of Amtek Auto (AAL).

Amtek Auto Ltd BSE SENSEX


• The company & Sumitomo Metal Industries (Sumitomo Metals) of Japan have signed a joint

venture (JV) agreement for production and sale of forged crank shafts for automotive

applications in India.

• Amtek Auto group is learnt to be in advanced talks to acquire OCL Iron and Steel (OISL)

controlled by Raghu Hari Dalmia. The transaction would value the company at around Rs

3.50 billion.

• The company has delayed its planned merger of five group firms into itself. The merger is

now proposed to happen by the end of this year or January 2010.The company had planned

to merger Amtek India, Ahmednagar Forgings, Amtek Ring Gears, Amtek Crankshafts and

Amtek Castings India with itself.

• We recommend ‘HOLD’ this stock with a target price of Rs.210.00 for long term

perspective.

Industry Overview

The Indian auto component industry is one of India's sunrise industries with tremendous

growth prospects. From a low-key supplier providing components to the domestic market

alone, the industry has emerged as one of the key auto components centers in Asia and is today

seen as a significant player in the global automotive supply chain. India is now a supplier of a

range of high-value and critical automobile components to global auto makers such as General

Motors, Toyota, Ford and Volkswagen amongst others.

As per an Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) report, the

turnover of the auto component industry was estimated at over US$ 18 billion in 2007-08, an

increase of 27.2 per cent since 2002. It is likely to touch US$ 40 billion by 2015-16. Aided by a 7

per cent growth in the OEM segment and an 8.5 per cent rise in exports and after-market

segment, it is expected that auto ancillary production would grow by 8.2 per cent in 2009-10,

according to a report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

Investments in the auto component industry were estimated at US$ 7.2 billion in 2007-08 and

are likely to touch US$ 20.9 billion by 2015-16.

Exports of auto components grew at the rate of 35 per cent during 2002-07 and touched US$

3.6 billion in 2007-08. It is estimated to reach around US$ 20 billion-US$ 22 billion by 2015-16.

During April-January 2008-09, exports grew by 27.3 per cent to US$ 2.12 million. A majority of

Indian exports are sent to Europe and North America.


Though global recession had affected the Indian auto components industry, it is now slowly

coming back on track. The auto components industry in Kanpur saw a three-fold increase in

orders during January to March 2009.

Destination India

According to the Investment Commission of India, global automobile manufacturers see India

as a manufacturing hub for auto components and are rapidly increasing the value of

components they source from India due to:

• India's cost competitiveness in terms of labour and raw material.

• Its established manufacturing base.

Makers of luxury cars are increasingly looking at making India a sourcing hub for components,

besides using more local components in cars for the Indian market. BMW is likely to sign the

first direct sourcing deal with local vendors by the end of this year. Skoda Auto India is looking

at increasing localization for its small car Fabia to over 50 per cent over the next two years.

Mercedes Benz India expects growth in sourcing from India to continue at 10 per cent.

Foreign Investments

India enjoys a cost advantage with respect to casting and forging as manufacturing costs in

India are 25 to 30 per cent lower than their western counterparts. Seeing the growing

popularity of India in the automotive component sector, the Investment Commission has set a

target of attracting foreign investment worth US$ 5 billion for the next seven years to increase

India's share in the global auto components market from the existing 0.9 per cent to 2.5 per

cent by 2015.

• French tyre major, Michelin, has gained clearance from the Foreign Investment

Promotion Board (FIPB) for its US$ 2.26 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) proposal

to set up a manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu.

• Bosch will continue to maintain its India focus in spite of global recession. This is

reflected in the company’s latest commitment of US$ 26.76 million to set up

manufacturing units for electronic control units (ECU).

• Swiss auto clamps maker, Oeitker Group, has inaugurated the first phase of its

manufacturing facility in India. It has invested US$ 12.58 million in Phase I and hopes to

start work on the second phase by the end of next year.


Domestic Investments

The market is so large and diverse that a large number of players can be absorbed to

accommodate buyer needs. The sector not only has global players looking to invest and expand

but leading domestic component companies are also pumping in huge sums into expanding

operations. An auto park is coming up near Hyderabad with investments worth over US$ 409.30

million from around 34 automotive ancillary units. This is in addition to a US$ 245.59 million

Greenfield project being set up by MLR Motors near the park.

Moreover, Indian tyremakers are rolling out investment plans worth US$ 1.24 billion, due to the

rising popularity of radial tyres in the commercial vehicles segment.

Some other investments include:

• Hero Motors will invest US$ 19.84 million in association with Austrian firm BRP

Powertrain for manufacturing automotive transmissions in India.

• Indian arm of Swedish automotive component maker SKF is investing US$ 30 million in a

new ball bearings manufacturing plant at Haridwar.

Policy Initiatives

The government has taken many initiatives to promote foreign direct investment (FDI) in the

industry.

• Automatic approval for foreign equity investment up to 100 per cent of manufacture of

automobiles and components is permitted.

• The automobile industry has been delicensed.

• There are no restraints on import of components.

The government has envisaged the Automotive Mission Plan 2016 to promote growth in the

sector. It targets:

• Emerging as the global favourite in the area of design and manufacture of automobiles

and auto components.

• Taking the output to US$ 145 billion, accounting for more than 10 per cent of the GDP.

• Offering additional employment to 25 million people by 2016.


Looking Ahead

With investments around US$ 15 billion slated for the sector over the next few years, the

prospects for India's auto market are bright.

Even though India's auto component industry has conventionally relied on exports for its

profits, the domestic market itself is ripe with rapidly growing opportunities. Industry experts

are hopeful that the country will be able to offset China and other Southeast Asian countries'

traditional manufacturing advantage in the coming years, facilitating the industry's

achievement of its targeted market value of US$ 40 billion by 2014.

___________________________________________________________

Disclaimer:

This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation

for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any

transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other

sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it

should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s

affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any

person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document

is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the

basis for an investment decision.


Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – [email protected]

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Amtek Auto Ltd

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