AMEU Convention Durban 16 October 2007 ESKOM UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY BUSINESS PLAN Anton Theron Peter Sebola.

AMEU Convention

Durban 16 October 2007

ESKOM UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO

ELECTRICITY BUSINESS PLAN

Anton Theron Peter Sebola

1. CONTENTS

Introduction

UAP Context

Methodology

Results

Critical Success Factors

Conclusion

2. INTRODUCTION

Our state president, in his state of the nation address in May 2004, set a target for all South Africans to have access to electricity by 2012.

Universal Access is not a new concept, been on government’s agenda since the 90’s.

However, in 2004 a committed timetable was officially extended to the nation.

3. UAP CONTEXT

2005 DME contracted Eskom for approach.

2006 statistics presented:

- Current: 3 million

- By 2012: 5 million

Workshop identified need for plan to manage “Universal Access”.

DME contracted Eskom to undertake the work.

3. UAP CONTEXT - Programme

PHASE 1

• Medium Term

• Planning Proposal

Per Municipality

3-year MTEF cycle

PHASE 3Integrated Network Plan

PHASE 2

• Short Term

• High Level

UAP Planning Proposal

In line with Government Objectives

3 months

STAGE 1Electrification

Universal Access

Business Plan

Master Plans For Accelerated

Growth

Composed of 2 Stages

STAGE 2Integrated

Network Plan

Long Term

Data ManagementVerify with the Regions

Gather & Analyse Data

Handover to Electrification and Network Planning

Electrification and Network Planning

Analysis & Workshop with Regions

Compile plans, agree with regions on plans

Strategic StudiesDetermine best guess growth figures based on econometric and demographic modeling

PMO

Fin

alis

e B

usi

nes

s C

ase

Handover to Electrification and Network Planning

Input to Bus. Case

Input to Bus. Case

Input to Bus. Case

3. UAP CONTEXT – Phase 3 Stage 1

4. METHODOLOGY

• Definition of Universal Access- Grid electrification option of choice with alternate technologies

as interim solution

- Alternate technologies replaced through process of continuous improvement

• Determining Backlog- All existing authorised housing units with no access

- Brownfields (Infills) & Greenfields

- Exact locality of backlog

- Census 2001official source for backlog statistics

BACKLOG PROCESS:• Combination of HELP, DWAF

& Census data

• GIS buffer around all electrification transformers;

• Count homesteads inside and outside this buffer;

• Brownfields (Infills) = Inside count - Prepaid customers

• Greenfields = Outside count - existing land rate customers

• Strategic Studies Team adjusted results for growth and Census alignment

4. METHODOLOGY Continued…

• Planning Process (3 months)– Qualitative planning approach– Workshops (Demand side & Supply side plan)– Iterative process

• Load & Energy Estimates– Past load research data– Function of income

• GIS Platform

Has CapacityLimited CapacityNo Capacity

4. METHODOLOGY Continued…

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Backlog 548,192 110,679 24,764 28,632 528,060 312,364 124,847 147,094 164,589

% of Backlog 28% 6% 1% 1% 27% 16% 6% 7% 8%

Eastern Cape Free StateNorthern

CapeWestern

CapeKwa-Zulu

NatalLimpopo Mpumalanga Gauteng North West

5. RESULTS - Backlog per province

2 million households

in Eskom supply area

5. RESULTS - Accelerated Plan: No constraints

Accelerated Plan

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

Allocated Backlog Unallocated backlog Growth

2.5 million connections by 2012 with growth

5. RESULTS – Pragmatic Plan with 07/08 Funding

Accelerated Plan

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

Allocated Backlog Unallocated backlog Growth

2.5 million connections by 2012 with growth

5. RESULTS – Total Forecasted Demand

ANTICIPATED DEMAND GROWTH DUE TO UAP

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Years

MV

A

Allocated Backlog Unallocated Backlog Growth Municipal Backlog TOTALS (incl Munics) TOTALS (excl Munics)

5. RESULTS - Summary

SCOPE: HV Substations 154

HV Lines (km) 19,071

MV Lines (km) 70,528

Trfrs (Units) 20,849

LV Lines (km) 141,381

Wood Poles 6,181,371

Meters 2,540,712

COST: R 24.7 bn

6. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

• Inclusion of municipal backlog areas

• Data update (satellite imagery)

• Maintain geospatial planning platform

• Stage 2 to proceed

• Detailed Industry supplier capacity assessment

• Understanding of REDS impact

• Operational expansion

7. CONCLUSION

• UAP shows that although great strides have already been made, much work still lies ahead to provide universal access to electricity

• Task is not limited to electrification projects only as we remember it in the 90’s but also requires substantial upstream network expansion & strengthening

Thank You

Q’s ?