American Public Perception of Mars Mission Economics: Establishing a Proper Context Brian Enke SwRI Boulder, CO [email protected] AUTHOR: Shadows.

American Public Perception ofMars Mission Economics:

Establishing a Proper Context

Brian Enke

SwRI

Boulder, [email protected]

AUTHOR:

Shadows of Medusa

GOALS

➢ Put the U.S. investment in manned spaceflight into a proper CONTEXT.

➢ Provide "Take-Home Points" to assist with damage control.

Outline

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)

➢ 75% believe the space program is a good investment!

➢ Humans-to-Mars favored (49% vs 42%)

➢ Conclusion: Many people believe a manned Mars mission would not be a good investment, i.e. too expensive

ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)

Quote from a retiree in New Jersey:

"We can go there after all the things wrong on Earth are fixed. I'm totally against any of it. It's a total waste of money we need for our kids, for illnesses, could put somebody's kids through college, could cure so many diseases."

Take-Home Point!

Health, Education, and Welfare are IMPORTANT investments!

We should never advocate reducing the funding for these programs. We don't need to.

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

➢ 76% would increase NASA funding or keep it unchanged

➢ 59% believe humans will set foot upon Mars within 25 years! (18% < 10 years)

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

83% believe a manned space program is important!

HOWEVER......

24% believe the US should end its manned space program altogether

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

➢ Less than 1%

➢ 1% to 5%

➢ 5% to 10%

➢ More than 10%➢ Not sure

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

➢ Less than 1% 20%➢ 1% to 5% 37%➢ 5% to 10% 19%➢ More than 10% 17%➢ Not sure 8%

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

Take-Home Point!

Watch out for loaded survey questions!!!

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

➢ Less than 1% 20% <----➢ 1% to 5% 37%➢ 5% to 10% 19%➢ More than 10% 17%➢ Not sure 8%

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)

➢ 5 questions; Margin of error: +/- 3%,

➢ Conducted before Presidential vision announced

➢ Rumors of a “trillion dollar space boondoggle”

➢ “Bush” Moon/Mars plan opposed (43% - 52%)

➢ “United States” Moon/Mars plan split (48% - 48%) (9% swing)

Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)

➢ Q1: ... expanding the space program ... Considering all the potential costs and benefits ...

➢ Q2: Some have suggested that space exploration on the moon and Mars would be more affordable using robots than sending humans...

➢ Q4: ... our investment in space research ... better spent on domestic programs such as health care and education?

"The space program is too expensive!!"Where does this perception come from?

➢ Poor terminology: cost vs investment

➢ Lack of accurate information (rumors)

➢ Lack of CONTEXT

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

Mission Baseline: Mars Direct

➢ Goal: Good science

➢ Crew of 4 for 2 years

➢ 500 km surface range

➢ Payload: 54 tonnes

➢ Risk: Medium

➢ 7 years to develop

➢ $3.5 billion / year

Take-Home Points!

INVESTMENT PER YEAR is a good metric to use.

Media estimates like "One Trillion Dollars" are meaningless rubbish.

Mission Baseline: Mars Direct(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

Mission Baseline: Mars Direct(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

Take-Home Points!

ONGOING investment/year is more interesting than DEVELOPMENT investment/year

A reasonable ongoing estimate for a Mars science mission is $3.5 billion/year

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

NASA Budget Question:

What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?

$145 Billion$ 42 Billion$ 33 Billion$ 16 Billion$ 9 Billion

NASA Budget Answer:

What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?

$145 Billion$ 42 Billion$ 33 Billion$ 16 Billion <------$ 9 Billion

NASA Budget Question:

What percentage of the 2005 NASA budget is invested in “Human Space Flight"?

92 %72 %52 %32 %12 %

NASA Budget Answer:

What percentage of the 2004 NASA budget is invested in “Human Space Flight"?

92 %72 %

------> 52 %32 %12 %

NASA Budget: 2005(proposed, billions) (from www.nasa.gov/about/budget/index.html)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $16.2100%

Space Science: $ 4.1 25%

Earth Science: $ 1.5 9%

Biological/Physical Research: $ 1.0 6%

Aeronautics: $ 0.9 6%

Education: $ 0.2 1%

Space Flight (ISS, Shuttle, Ops): $ 6.7 41%ISS, Ops: $ 2.4Shuttle: $ 4.3

Exploration Systems: $ 1.9 11%

Take-Home Point!

The proposed 2005 budget for the Space Shuttle and Exploration Systems is $6.2 billion per year.

But what does this number really mean? We still need a proper CONTEXT.

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

US Government Budget Question:

What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?

$ 2400 Billion$ 1700 Billion$ 1000 Billion$ 800 Billion$ 300 Billion

US Government Budget Answer:

What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?

$ 2400 Billion <----$ 1700 Billion$ 1000 Billion$ 800 Billion$ 300 Billion

Take-Home Point!

The entire 2005 NASA budget is ~$16 billion, LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of the federal budget.

Note: This is still true even when the $5.7 billion NSF budget is added.

2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400(100%)

Social Security: $ 510 (21%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 478 (20%)

$ 445 (19%)

Defense: $ 429 (18%)

Health & Human Services: $ 68 ( 2.8%)

Education: $ 57 ( 2.4%)

Homeland Security: $ 47 ( 2.0%)

HUD: $ 31 ( 1.3%)

NASA budget: $ 16 ( 0.7%)

2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400(100%)

Social Security: $ 510 (21%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 478 (20%)

BUDGET DEFICIT: $ 445 (19%)

Defense: $ 429 (18%)

Health & Human Services: $ 68 ( 2.8%)

Education: $ 57 ( 2.4%)

Homeland Security: $ 47 ( 2.0%)

HUD: $ 31 ( 1.3%)

NASA budget: $ 16 ( 0.7%)

2005 US Government Budget Without NASA

(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400(100%)

Budget deficit: $ 445( 19%)

NASA budget: - $ 16( 0.7%)

-------2005 budget deficit w/o NASA: $ 429 (

18%)

Take-Home Points!

The US Government operates on DEFICIT / SURPLUS spending.

Any money "saved" reduces the deficit.

Any money spent elsewhere increases the deficit.

Take-Home Points!

If the US Government wants to spend more money on welfare, health care, or education, IT WILL.

Investment in spaceflight is irrelevant to such decisions.

Take-Home Points!

Deficits are paid off over time, possibly by our children and our grandchildren.

These are the same generations that will benefit the most from deficit INVESTMENTS into the space program.

Misc US Government Investments(billions) (from misc media/gov sources)Budget deficit (2005):

$ 445Extra tax revenue – economy imprv. (2005): $ 82Military weapons R&D (2005): $ 66Proposed 6-year highway bill (2004): $ 53

($318)Iraq war (2003, est 3/24): $ 75Med/Med fraud (yearly, est): $ 26Airline bailout (2002): $ 20Farm subsidies (2004): $ 19NASA budget:

$ 16Med/Med cost overrun (2004, est): $ 4 +Mars Direct (not):

$ 4

(US) State Government Statistics(billions) (from http://www.census.gov and http://www.state.co.us)

Total US Population (8/12/2004): 293,985,161Colorado population (7/2005 projected): 4,400,000 (1.5%)

2005 Colorado General Fund:Total 2005 Outlay Request: $ 5.6 --> $ 374

Dept of Education: $ 3.2 --> $ 214Dept of Health Care: $ 1.2 --> $ 83Dept of Human Services: $ 0.5 --> $ 31NASA budget: $ 0.2 <-- $ 16

(County? Local? ...)

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

United States Economy(billions)

US GDP: 8/2003 - 7/2004 (www.bea.gov): $ 11649(100%)

2005 proposed US Government Budget:$ 2400 (20.6%)

2005 proposed NASA Budget: $ 16(0.14%)

Misc US Economy Figures(billions)

US Trade deficit, June, 2004 (Commerce Dept): $ 56

Microsoft 2004 revenue:$ 37

Microsoft mid-2004 cash reserve: $ 50

Microsoft 2004 special dividend: $ 32

General Motors 2003 revenues: $ 186

General Motors end-2003 assets: $ 288

Walmart Q2/2004 revenues: $ 70

More US Economy Figures(billions)

2002 State Farm "Administrative Fees" (State Farm): $ 7.0

Yearly 1990's golf course construction (USPGA): $ 9.5

Average assets of 10 random investmentmanagement firms (Pacific Life, 2003): $ 390.7

Yearly Europe/US ice cream purchases (UN,USDA): $ 31.0

2002 US alcoholic beverages (www.usda.com): $ 114.0

Yearly artwork sold worldwide (art-exchange.com): $ 100.0

US yearly cost of spam e-mail (Nucleus Research, 7 min/day): $ 87.0

Hurricane Charley insurance payouts (est): (AP): $ 11.0

Take-Home Points!

Mars Direct can be funded...

➢ By 1 out of every 8 ice cream purchases....

➢ By 1 out of every 25 beer and wine purchases...

➢ By reducing the cost of spam e-mail by 5%...

● Public Perception

● Baseline Mission

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Public Perception

Gallup Research Poll(7/2004)(Jim Banke, Coalition for Space Exploration & The Space Foundation)

➢ Sponsored by the Coalition for Space Exploration➢ No loaded up-front questions, less bias➢ Realistic CONTEXT provided

➢ NASA budget request less than 1% this year➢ $55 per year for the average taxpayer➢ No political baggage

Moon/Mars Initiative Support

➢ Ipsos-AP:➢ “Bush” plan opposed (43% - 52%)➢ “US” plan split (48% - 48%)

➢ Gallup:➢ Plan strongly favored (68% - 24%)

Take-Home Point!

To remove more than half (24% – 28%) the opposition to the Moon/Mars plan:

➢ Remove politics

➢ Cap the investment at 1% of the federal budget.

http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/economics2004.html

This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections.

Brian EnkeSouthwest Research Institute

[email protected]

Author: Shadows of Medusawww.shadowsofmedusa.com