AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR DECISION SCIENCES PROCEEDINGS Twelfth Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision Sciences Las Vegas, Nevada November 5-7, 1980 Volume 2 Proceedings Coordinator James C. Hershauer Arizona State University Program Chairperson Ronald J. Ebert University of Missouri-Columbia UB/TIB Hannover- 89 119 218 402
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AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR DECISION SCIENCES
PROCEEDINGS
Twelfth Annual Meetingof the
American Institute for Decision Sciences
Las Vegas, Nevada
November 5-7, 1980
Volume 2
Proceedings CoordinatorJames C. Hershauer
Arizona State University
Program ChairpersonRonald J. Ebert
University of Missouri-ColumbiaUB/TIB Hannover- 89
119 218 402
TABLE OF CONTENTSVolume 2
PRODUCTION/OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
SymposiumVehicle Routing and Scheduling—The State of the Art 1
William E. Hardy, Jr.
Production PlanningA Comparison of Multiple Criteria Solutions of Large-Scale Flow Shop Scheduling Problems 3
Arthur W. Smith and Edward F. Stafford, Jr.The Relationship Between Product Structure and Multistage Lot Sizes: A Preliminary Analysis 6
Lee J. Krajewski, Larry P. Ritzman, and Danny S. WongProduction Planning for Master Slab Casters in the Steel Industry 9
Mark A. Vonderembse
SymposiumMaster Planning 12
Donald W. Fogarty
SymposiumProduction and Operations Management Curriculum Innovations: A Symposium 13
Allan D. Schuster
LogisticsAn Allocation Technique with Tradeoffs Between Total Cost and Arc Flows 15
Charles J. Teplitz
Estimating and Auditing Aggregate Inventory Levels at Multiple Stocking Points 18
Ronald A. Ballou
MRP as a Multilevel Distribution Status and Planning Model 20
John G. Carlson, Roger B. Glaser, Warren J. Erkson, and Karl E. Dickel
SymposiumOperations Management and the Economics of Energy: A Symposium 23
James A. Fitzsimmons and Robert S. Sullivan
Organizational Issues in P/OM
Describing a Production Management System, or, "The Blind Men and the Elephant" 26
Michael C. Burstein and Mariann Jelinek
Service OperationsA Requirements Planning System for the Space Shuttle Operations Schedule 29
Earle Steinberg, William B. Lee, and Basheer M. Khumawala
Determining Electronic Point of Sale Cash Register Requirements 32
Michael J. Maggard
Managing Aircraft Modification Overhaul Production: A Simulation Approach 35
Thomas D. Clark, Jr., and Woodrow Fulton
Symposium
Conceptualizing and Implementing Multiple Criteria Decisions in Production Management 38
John J. Bernardo
Project Management
Auditing the Project 39
Herbert F. Spirer and A. G. Hulvey
Control Variate Simulation of Stochastic Project Networks 41
Robert S. Sullivan and Jack C. Hayya
Multi-Project Scheduling: Categorization of Heuristic Rules Performance Under Unequal Delay Penalties 43
Ibrahim Kurtulus
Process DesignStochastic Flow Line Architecture: A Systematic Assessment of the Effects
of Compound Imbalance Upon Performance 46
William W. Williams
Designing Mixed-Model Assembly Lines 49
John F. Kottas and Hon-Shiang Lau
iii
The Effect of Buffer Storage Size and Unbalanced Allocation of Stochastic Task Times
on Unpaced Production Line Efficiency 52
Timothy L. Cmunt and William C. Perkins
Material Requirements PlanningOn Auditing a Requirements Planning System 55
Satish Mehra and M. Jerry Reid
Health Service Operations
Disaggregation in Detail Scheduling of Part-Time Employees for Multiple Service Locations 57
Stephen E. Bechtold
The Merits of Group Purchasing in the Hospital Industry 60
William O. Cleverley, Paul C. Nutt, and Jon H. Carlson
The Applications of Statistical Control Charts to Monitor Hospital Utilization ., 63Robert B. Fetter and Jean L. Freeman
PUBLIC/NONPROFIT ADMINISTRATION
Workshop
Strategies and Tools for Increasing Productivity in Higher Education: Academic Administration Workshop 66
George R. Bateman and Carl R. Adams
Public/Nonprofit Sector Programs and Policies
Social Program Evaluation Revised: The WIC Program 67Paul C. Nutt and Mitchel Wheeler
A Simulation Approach to Policy Analysis in Public-Sector Decisional Structures 70
Thomas D. Clark, Jr., and William A. Shrode
Optimal Investigation Policies Under Selected PSRO Utilization Review Procedures:
A Profile Analysis of Feasible Parameter Sets, 73
David A. Dittman
Faculty Reward Systems and Rank Distribution
A Multivariate Approach to Analyzing Faculty Reward Systems in Institutions of Higher Education 76Louis R. Concordia and James R. Burns
Public/Nonprofit Applications of Goal ProgrammingEducational Output Goals and Implementation Strategies in Public School Finance 79
Gary R. Reeves, James R. Sweigart, and Elchanan Cohn
Goal Programming Applied to Municipal Government Pension Systems 82
F. Theodore Helmer and Shirley F. Olson
An Integer Goal Programming Model for Decision Making in the University Setting 85Arthur J. Keown and Bernard W. Taylor III
Commitment, Authority, and Bargaining in the Public/Nonprofit Sector
Public Sector Multilateral Collective Bargaining: An Indifference Analysis Approach 88Terry L. Leap and Terence A. Oliva
Organizational Commitment: Interrelationships with Job Characteristics, Job Satisfaction,Professional Behavior, and Organizational Climate 91
Harold P. Welsch and Helen LaVan
SymposiumA Symposium Presenting Papers on: Effective Decisions in Police Administration 94
John M. Jermier
Quantitative Applications (o the Public/Nonprofit Sector
Predictive Sociographic Modeling and Rural Food Stamp Participation 97E. Garland Keesling and R. M. Cosenza
Item Analysis Weights vs. Discriminate Analysis Weights: Model Building and Model Testing 100Warren S. Blumenfeld, Dwight Tabor, and Aprile M. Holland
Attitudinal and Behavioral Issues in Public/Nonprofit AdministrationA Combined Leave Benefit System for the Control of Absenteeism in Health Care Organizations 103
George O. Schneller, IV, Richard E. Kopelman, and John J. Silver, Jr.
Operant Leadership-Satisfaction Relationships Across Hospital Occupational Levels 106Kent E. Curran and William Higginbotham
iv
An Investigation of the Generalizability of Leader Reward Behavior in Public Sector Agencies 109Kent E. Curran, Jerry A. Wallin, and Michael H. Peters
Economic Issues in Public/Nonprofit Administration
A Theory of Subsidy—Efficiency in Mass Transportation 112
Darold T. Barnum and John M. Gleason
Symposium
Politics and the Implementation of Computerized Information Systems in Local Government 115Janet Fulk Schriesheim
QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES/METHODOLOGY
Symposium
System Dynamics: Philosophy, Technology, and Application 118J. Kenneth White
Tutorial
A Tutorial on Latent Trait Theory 121
John D. Arnold
Integer ProgrammingFixed Charge Transportation Problems and Equivalent Integer Programming 123
S. Selcuk Erenguc and A. Victor Cabot
Improving Suboptimal Solutions to Multiconstrained Knapsack Problems 126
Charles S. Parker and Harlan B. Stenn
Solving Mixed Integer Programming Problems with Khachian's Ellipsoid Technique 128
F. Robert Jacobs and Basheer M. Khumawala
Scheduling Problems
Project Scheduling with Resource Constraints: A Goal Programming Approach 131Alan H. Kvanli and James J. Buckley
An Algorithm for Single Machine, Two Due Dates Weighted Tardiness Scheduling Problem 134
Kang PengCritical Path Analysis for Stochastic Project Network Models 136
John E. Hebert
Models and Decision Support Systems
A Model for Synergistic Business Mergers with Case Study Applications 139
Robert W. Milik, Jr.
A Microcomputer-Based Decision Analysis Support System 142
Charles R. Margenthaler and Bruce M. Morlan
A Simplified Multi-attribute Scoring Model, 145
James A. Pope
Probability and Regression,
Method of Moments Estimators for Stable Distributions 148
Bruce D. Fielitz and James P. Rozelle
Statistics and SchedulingThe Ambiguity of Statistical Analysis of Random Number Generators—
An Experiment Using the Midproduct Generator 151
Susan L. Solomon
A Strategy for Contingency Table Analysis 154
Ronald D. Anderson, Franklin Acito, and James G. Williams
Multi-tour Scheduling for Service Technicians 157
Larry E. Shirland
Mathematical ProgrammingAdvanced Starts in a Primal-Dual Cutting Plane Algorithm for All-Integer Programming 160
Larry M. Austin, Parviz Ghandforoush, and Michael E. Hanna
A Priori vs. A Posteriori Measures of Aggregation Error in the Transportation Problem 163
Nancy K. Keith, Bruce A. McCarl, and Gordon P. WrightA Multiobjective Model for the Computer Chargeout 166
Charles R. Franz and Sang M. Lee
v
Multivariate Methods
Using the Linear Model to Possibly Salvage Some Main Effect Contrasts When Interaction Is Present 169
Stephen P. Ramocki
Factor Analysis Rules-of-Thumb Revisited: Old Traditions and Some New Ideas 172
Buddy L. Myers and David J. Skaret
Determining Member Perceptions of Organization Structure: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach 175
Edward K. Marlow
STATISTICS/DECISION THEORY
Workshop
Decision Sciences and Gambling 178
Jeff Horen
Workshop:
Exploratory Data Analysis—Lessons from John Tukey 179
Brian L. Joiner and Brian Schott
Statistical AnalysisHandling Unequal Cell Frequencies in Two-Way ANOVAs 181
Ken Black and J. B. SpaldingTwo Further Refinements of Distribution-Free Discriminant Analysis 184
Patrick W. Shannon
The Use of Variance Reduction Techniques in RSM Simulation Studies 187
Belva J. Cooley and Ernest C. Houck
Decision Theory I
An Analysis of the Classical and Bayesian Approaches to Sample Size Determination 190
James W. Gentry and Asavin Chintakananda
Motivational Bias in Probability Assessments 193
Robert C. Pickhardt
Empirical Bayesian Quality Control 196
Rajesh K. Kakar and John T. Sennetti
Insurance for Irreplaceable Commodities: A Decision Theoretic Approach 198
Fereidoon (Perry) Sioshansi and Andrew B. Whinston
Decision Theory II
A Tutorial on Interactive Statistical Analysis 201
George R. Bateman
Comparison of Useful Nonparametric TechniquesAn Analysis of the Effects of Weighting in Linear, Predictive Models 202
W. C. Buss
Subject Response Error in a Lexicographic Model 205
Douglas R. Emery, Francis D. Tuggle, and Andrew D. Luzi
On the Indeterminacy of Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions 208
Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Comparison of Useful Nonparametric Techniques
Using k Sample Tests to Detect Ordered Treatment Effects: A Comparative Studyof Fourteen Nonparametric Procedures 211
Mark L. Berenson
Measuring Reliability of Criterion-Based Tests 214
Shulamith T. Gross
Distribution Free Procedures for the Analysis of Complete Blocks 217
Ronald L. Iman and W. J, Conover
Distribution Free Procedures for Multiple Comparisons 218
Ronald L. Iman and W. J. Conover
A Comparison of the Power-Efficiency of Selected Two-Sample Nonparametric Tests 219John E. Nixon and Betty Yantis
Bivariate Decision Rules for Comparing Populations Using Rank Tests 222
V. Lyman Gallup,
vi
Optimization in Statistics
Practical Experiences in Solving Nonlinear Regression Problems Via Nonlinear Programming 223
D. M. Himmelblau
Mathematical Programming in Cluster Analysis 226
George Diehr and Hugo Moortgat
An Optimal Simple Percential Estimator of the Weibull Shape Parameter
When All Three ParametersAre Unknown 229Stelios H. Zanakis and Nancy R. Mann
A Bicriteria Model for Acceptance Sampling in Quality Control 231
Herbert Moskowitz, A. Ravindran, and Gary Klein
Tutorial
Applications of Discrete Discriminant Analysis 234Matthew Goldstein and William R. Dillon
Forecasting
Forecasting Daily Demand at a State Trout Park Using ARIMA/Box-Jenkins Methodology 237
Stephen A. DeLurgio
Adaptive Robust Procedures as Estimation Technique for Business Data Analysis 240
Mir Masoom Ali, Frederick R. Forst, and Nazim U. Ahmed
Vector Autoregression vs. Box-Jenkins Techniques in Regional Economic Forecasting:A Comparative Evaluation 243
Robert I. Mann, Lee R. McPheters, and Don E. Schlagenhauf
Probability Models
The Power Gamma: An Alternative Approach to Monotonic Association Measurement 246
David Krackhardt
Lower Multinomial Bound for Overstatement or Understatement Errors 249
Robert Plante, John Neter, and Robert A. Leitch
STUDENT PAPERS SESSION
Computer Project Selection: Process, Techniques and Constraints 251
N. Paule Melone and T. J. Wharton
Designing Management Decision-Aid Programs 254
Daniel Power and Harris Zwerling
THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 18
Table 1—Decision Making in OrganizationsCommunication and Group Risk
,257
Lawrence A. Tanzi
Brain Dominance and Managerial Decision Making 258
Bernadette J. Pian and Elmore R. Alexander
Leadership Models of Performance Evaluation Decisions: An Empirical Applicationof Within and Between Analysis 259
Francis J. Yammarino, Fred Dansereau, Jr., Joseph A. Alutto, and Steven E. Markham
A Comparison of High Motive Males and Females on Persuasibility in Group Decision-Making 260
James Belohlav and William LaFollette
Table 2—Probability, Computers, and Information Systems
Optimization of Customer Service Variables by Nonlinear Mathematical Programming Techniques 261
John Rogers and Roger PfaffenbergerUse ofa Liapunov Function for Establishment of a Bound on the Expected Queue Size in the M/M/°° Queue 262
Peter M. Ellis
A Simple Method for Aggregating Traffic Flow Networks > 263
Fong-Lieh Ou
A Survey of Computer Skills Requirements in MBA Programs 264
Henry H. Beam and Thomas A. Carey
Management Informatics and Organization Encephalization 265
Mohamed H. Hosny and Michael J. C. Martin
vii
Table 3—Issues in the Effective Use of Consumer Research
Reduction of Halo Effect in Rating Scales: Some Marketing Implications 266
Ram Kesavan and Samuel H. Himes, Jr.
Market Segmentation via Nonmetric Regression 267
Roger Gates and Bob Brobst
New Product Planning and Forecasting Under VaryingMarket and Economic Conditions 268
Kenneth D. Lawrence and Gary R. Reeves
Consumer Control of Their P.rice Index: An Economic Approach 269
Huey Latham, Jr., and Dean E. Allmon
Ridge Regression Application to Non-orthogonal Marketing Data 270
Rajinder S. Arora and Ronald L. Vaughn
Table 4—Evaluation of Teaching and LearningThe Effects of MBA Admissions Criteria and Self-Selection on Career-Related
Characteristics of MBA Students 271
Eleanor W. Jordan and Marianne Seiler
An Objective Evaluation Scheme for Subjective Examinations 272
Hugh M. Cannon and George R. Cannon
An Experimental Investigation ofthe Impact of Grades on Student Evaluation in a Managerial Finance Course 273
P. Krishnakumar, T. A. Chilsholm, and J. P. Clay
An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Televised Lectures 274
John Hanke and Arthur Reitsch
Quantitative and Computer Systems Majors in Accredited and Nonaccredited Business Programs 275
Leonard J. Kazmier
Table 5—Financial Management
An Investigation of Profit Impact Relative to Company and Industrial Characteristics 276
Jerry L. Wall and Henry E. Metzner
A Simulation Model for the Multi-stage Capital Investment Decisions 277
M. K. Rajaraman and Scott T. Turney
Selecting a Bid for a Known Quantity 278
Howard A. Plotkin
Estimating the Costs of Misclassifying Retail Credit Risks 279
Charles W. Caldwell, James W. Gentry, and James J. Miller
Case Study Comparisons of Two Discrete Time Period Cash Management Models 280
Steven G. Flagg and Peter A. Pinto
THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 35
Table 1—Issues in Organizational Behavior: An Overview
Social Comparison Processes and Task Design: A Laboratory Experiment 281
E. Allen Slusher and Ricky W. Griffin
Organizational Politics: Toward an Integration of Theory and Practice, 282
Donald J. Vredenburgh
Determinants of Managerial Perceptions of MBO Effectiveness 283
Robert Ford and Frank McLaughlin
Conceptualizing the Role Conflict Role Ambiguity Literature 284
W. Alan Randolph and Angelo S. DeNisi
The Effects of Sex of Rater on Process and Perceived Accuracy of Performance Appraisals 285
Richaurd R. Camp and P. Nick Blanchard
Table 2—Multilevel Lot Sizing
Computational Comparison of Optimal and Heuristic Lot Sizing Approachesfor the Multi-level Production Inventory Problem 286
H, Albert Napier and Earle SteinbergOn the Use of Marginal Holding Costs in Multi-stage Lot-Sizing 287
Urban Wemmerlov
Multi-level Lot Sizing: An Experimental Analysis 288
F. Robert Jacobs and Basheer M, Khumawala
The Effects of Demand Pattern on Requirements Planning Lot Sizing Methods 289
Stephen H. Goodman, Ralph E. Janaro, and Donald L. Brechtel
viii
Table 3—Selected Topics in Public/Nonprofit Administration
Residential Energy Management: An Empirical Study 290
Betty Yantis, John E. Nixon, and William J. CorneyGoal Probing: A New Approach to Public Policy Analysis 291
William G. Ludwin and Thomas L. Guthrie
Segmentation of Potential Enlistees for the Military Services 292
Irvin D. Reid
Startup Management in Health Maintenance Organizations 293
Nicholas Baloff and Mary Jane Budenstein
Earthquakery or -Quackery: The Art ofPredicting Cataclysm 294
Jerome Selman and Victor Selman
Table 4—New Ideas in TeachingAn Entire Decision Sciences Course 295
Leon Winer
Task Definition and Test Performance: A Classroom Experiment 296
Joanne M. Klebba
An Effective, Dynamic G.N.P. Forecasting Model for the Classroom 297
George L. Marrah, Dale D. Pletcher, and Arthur N. Jensen
Target Group Analysis: A Practical Exercise for Involving Students in Research-Oriented Decision Making 298
Hugh M. Cannon
Achieving Interdisciplinary Integration Using a Highly Disciplined Problem Solving Procedure
in Analyzing Business Policy Cases 299
James E. Weir
Table 5—MIS Performance and Evaluation
Factors Affecting CBIS Performance 300
Hugh J. Watson and Ali H. Mansour
Evaluations Within the Information System Development Life Cycle 301
Scott Hamilton and Jim McKeen
The Role of Computerized Literature Search Systems on the Transfer of Scientific and Technical Information..,
302
Paul D. Berger and Arthur Gerstenfeld '
Adequate Documentation for Systems and Programs 303
Asad Khailany and Laura Khailany
Computer Facility Centralization/Decentralization: A Multicriteria Analysis Model 304
Sang M. Lee and Susan J. Wilkins
THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 53
Table 1—Looking at Job Satisfaction, Leader Behavior, and Organizational Climate
Psychometric Properties of the Job Descriptive Index (JD1) 305
Angelo J. Kinicki and Chester A. Schriesheim
A Comparison of the Job Satisfaction of Full-Time and Seasonal Employees 306
Timothy T. Serey and Anson Seers
Climate: An Individual, Group and Organizational Perspective 307
Michael A. Abelson and R. H. George Field
Factor Structure Analysis of the Leader Reward Behavior Questionnaire 308
Kent E. Curran and Ronald D. Johnson
Table 2—Industrial Applications of OM Models
Financial Decision Model for Chemical Plant Operations 309
David L. Eldredge and Bob Holdman
Goal Programming Established Priorities for the Conventional Ammunition Production Base 310
Warren J. Boe, Jeffrey Horen, and Douglas Kahl
Estimating Production Costs for State of the Art Technology in the Helicopter Industry 311
J. J. Gilliland and C. F. Bimmerle
A GPSS Continuous Process Scheduling Model: An Empirical Example 312
Kenneth D. Ramsing, David M. Dilts, and Ilchoo Chung
Inventory Management in a Cottage Industry 313
B. P. Lingaraj
IX
Table 3—Decision Analysis Theory and ApplicationRisk Analysis in Competitive Bidding 314
David W. Pentico
An Expanded Algorithm for Decision Analysis Trees 315
Charles L. Hubbard and Fred J. Ganoe
A Relative Area Approach to Subjective Probability Assessment 316
P. George Benson, Edna M. White, and Urton L. Anderson
A Decision Theoretic Framework for Strategic Legal Decisions 317
W. E. Pinney and John V. Dowdy, Jr.
Fussy Outranking Relation in Multiple Criteria Decision Making 318
Jean M. Martel and Gilles d'Avignon
Table 4—Research in Advertising and PricingDemand Effects in Evaluation Research 319
Robert E. Smith
The "Profile Distance" Approach to Media Selection—How Well Does It Work? 320
Hugh M. Cannon and Kurt B. AugsburgerWhat Is Abusive Advertising? 321
Hugh M. Cannon and Jan C. Jennings
The Price-Quality Relationship: An Experimental Study 322
David J. Lill and Elliott S. Willman
How Important Is Price in Industrial Markets: A Review and Conceptual Framework 323
Michael V. Laric
Table S—MIS Applications
Decision Support Systems for Portfolio Management 324
James F. Courtney, Jr., and Robert Minch
Retail Information Management Systems (RIMS): Establishing the Key to Retail Success 325
Douglas J. Lincoln and A. Coskun Samli
Computerized Church Management Information Systems .• 326
Engming Lin and Mesbah Ahmed
Mini Computer-Based Information System Rescues Insurance Premium Finance System 327
Vincent E. Cangelosi and Walter G. Rudd
Decentralized Decision Support Systems—A Blood Banking Example 328
Kenneth E. Kendall
THURSDAY TOPIC TABLE SESSION 69
Table 1—Personnel Decisions and Managerial Behavior
Employee Selection Within the Law 329
Stephen Rubenfeld and Michael Crino
Leadership Properties and Span of Supervision: A Study in Fast-Food Restaurants 330
Foad Derakshan
Investigating the Relationship Between Good Managers, Presidents, and Presidential Candidates 331
D. Anthony Butterfield, Gary N, Powell, and Barry Z. Posner
Table 2—Quantitative Applications to Public/Nonprofit Administration
The Discrimination of Successful Ballet Dancers with Math Programming 332
William V. Gehrlein and Barbara A. Johnson
A Methodology for the Estimation of the Job Vacancies for the Inexperienced College Graduates 333
Jae Hyon SongNew Insight into Forecasting Engineering Enrollment 334
Donald A. Yale
System Dynamic Simulation Model for Policy Analysis of a Gonorrhea Control Program 335
Ramesh K. Shukla and Yasar A. Ozcan
Design of Optimal Water Distribution and Treatment Systems for Large Urban Areas:
An Application of Nonlinear Transportation Algorithms 336
Keith E. Boles, David E. Pingry, and Timothy Shaftel
Table 3—Statistical ApplicationsPilot Performance Prediction and Selection for Air-to-Air Combat 337
Dwight W. Polk and Carl Gooding
x
Blackjack: A Comparative Evaluation of "Simple" Player Strategies 338
Richard J. PenleskyA Note on the Effect of Attitudinal Measures in Multivariate Classification 339
Forrest S. Carter
Detection, Inference and the Arms Race 340
Raymond DaceyEnhancements for the Interpretation of Overlaps and Differences Among Groups 341
Collin J. Watson
Table 4—Surveys and Exploratory Data Analysis
Exploratory Data Analysis: A Tool for the Decision Maker 342
Herbert F. SpirerAn Investigation of Response Quality in a Mail Survey 343
W. L. Lett and A. A. Armenakis
How Long Should the Telephone Ring? Minimizing Inter-Interview Time in Phone Surveys 344