-
This 2020 factor could be the key to BTC reclaiming $60k
level
WazirX gets show-cause notice over claims of ‘money
laundering’
Will India classify Bitcoin as an asset class soon?
Bitcoin’s past week of decline has been ana-lyzed again and
again: the why, the how and how long. Quite a few factors have been
deemed responsible for its drop. From weak mar-ket sentiment to
over-leveraged trades, every rea-soning is backed by an argument.
Yet, there is a par-ticular influence, or simply the lack of it,
which may have rolled the dice on BTC’s calamitous month.
How is no one talking about Institutions? Say what you may,
Institu-tions made their presence known towards the end of 2020.
Whether it was Grayscale’s aggressive ac-cumulation or
MicroStrat-egy’s massive BTC buy, its impact was evident. From 1
October 2020 to the 3rd week of February 2021, Grayscale’s BTC
holdings increased from 449.8k BTC to 655.47k. Then, the spending
suddenly came to an abrupt halt, and a significant weekly
correc-tion of 21% was observed.
Many analysts speculated that Gray-scale stopped adding to their
BTC hold-ings as GBTC premium was exhibiting neg-ative rates. Now,
Since 25 February, GBTC premium is yet to record a positive rate.
On 14 May, it reached an all-time low of 21.23%.
The drop in GBTC discount suggest-ed that institutional demand
has softened in the market considerably since February.
Coincidentally, the price action for Bitcoin hasn’t been great
either. Bitcoin registered a high of $57,780 on 21 February,
following which only an 11.14% rise was observed over a month. The
momentum had visibly tapered down.
Therefore, it can be speculated that the decrease in
Institutional spending may have halted BTC’s rally following Q1
2021. Re-tail traders haven’t been able to inject sub-stantial
momentum to the rally, as lever-aged trades rekt the price’s value
off late.
What can be taken as positive for Bitcoin? There is no way of
confirming a correlation be-
fers a wide range of crypto-related transac-tions, including
exchange of CCs with INR and vice-versa; exchange of CCs; Person to
Person (P2P) transactions; and even transfer/receipt of
cryptocurrency held in its pool accounts
tween Bitcoin bull-run and Institutional spend-ing. However,
both have occurred in the same period, so an argument can be made
based on influence. One of the positives that can be taken out of
the current market is that Gray-scale could start accumulating at
previous prices again, seen during the start of February.
Another inference that can be drawn is that Institutions are
currently waiting for the price to drop deeper, before executing
an-other major buy order. Whatever it may be, institutions’
intervention currently looks signif-icant for Bitcoin, if the asset
wants to improve and progress higher on another bullish rally.
Even though India was still deliberat-ing regulations for
cryptocurrencies, some top officials from the industry believed
that the country could be look-ing at classifying Bitcoin as an
asset class.
Sources linked with the in-dustry expressed that the government
has moved away from its aggressive stance towards virtual
currencies and was like to classify Bitcoin as an asset class in
India soon. Meanwhile, the Securi-ties and Exchange Board of India
[SEBI] could be the regulator for crypto.
Despite the leniency shown by the government regarding crypto,
the RBI re-cently clarified that there was no change in its stance
and that concerns still pre-vailed regarding cryptos. The RBI
Gover-nor, Shaktikanta Das had earlier stated:
“There is no change in RBI’s position (re-garding
cryptocurrencies). And, with regards to RBI’s position, we have
major concerns about cryptocurrencies, which we have conveyed to
the government. And, with regard to investors, it is for each
investor to do his own due dili-gence and take a very careful and
prudent call.”
This was a response to its latest circular that directed the
banks to stop flagging cus-tomers over crypto transactions, citing
a 2018 circular that was later quashed by the Supreme Court. While
many mistook this circular as the central bank warming up to
crypto, the RBI cleared the air with the above statement.
Nevertheless, there have been discussions about the formation of
a new committee with the finance ministry and crypto industry to
oversee the regulations. It has been report-ed that an expert panel
at the ministry was already studying the matter and the chances of
a crypto bill making its way to the mon-soon session of the
Parliament was likely.
Ketan Surana, Director and chief finan-cial officer, Coinsbit,
and Member, Inter-net and Mobile Association of India said:
“We can definitely say that the new commit-tee which is working
on cryptocurrencies is very optimistic on cryptocurrency regulation
and legislation... A new draft proposal will soon be in the
Cabinet, which will look into the overall scenario and take the
best step forward. We are very hopeful that the government will
embrace cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.”
to wallets of other exchanges which could be held by foreigners
in foreign locations.
The ED has also alleged that WazirX did not collect the required
documents and that in turn contravened the mandatory Anti-Mon-ey
Laundering (ALM) and Combating Financ-ing Terrorism (CFT) rules and
FEMA guidelines.
“In the period under investigation, users of WazirX via its pool
account, have received in-coming cryptocurrency worth Rs 880 crore
from Binance accounts and transferred out cryptocur-rency worth Rs
1,400 crore to Binance accounts. None of these transactions are
available on the blockchain for any audit or investigation.”
Curiously, according to CEO Nischal Shetty, WazirX is yet to
receive any show-cause no-tice, with the exec stressing that the
exchange is in compliance with all laws and regulations.
He added, “We go beyond our legal obliga-tions by following Know
Your Customer (KYC) and Anti Money Laundering (AML) processes and
have always provided information to law enforcement authorities
whenever required.” Here, it’s worth noting that
crypto-regula-tions in India are very foggy at the moment.
BI-MONTHLY DIGITAL NEWSPAPER
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
BI-MONTHLY DIGITAL NEWSPAPER
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
India’s Directorate of Enforcement, on Friday, issued a
show-cause notice to Indian cryp-to-exchange WazirX for violating
FEMA guide-lines for transactions involving cryptocurrencies worth
Rs. 2,790.74 crore ($381,862,278 approx).
The ED initiated the FEMA investiga-tion on the basis of an
ongoing money laun-dering investigation into Chinese-owned illegal
online betting applications.
The officially registered entity M/s Zanmai Labs Pvt Ltd was
incorporated in 2017 as a native Indian crypto-startup and the
directors - Nischal Shetty and Sameer Hanuman Mhatre have been
called out in the ED’s notice. Here, it should be noted that global
crypto-exchange Binance had acquired WazirX two years after
incorporation in 2019.
The ED’s statement highlighted, “Dur-ing the course of
investigation, it was seen that the accused Chinese nationals had
laun-dered proceeds of crime worth Rs. 57 crore approximately by
converting the INR depos-its into cryptocurrency Tether (USDT) and
then transferring the same to Binance Wallets based on instructions
received from abroad.”
According to the probe agency, WazirX of-
Institutions made their presence known towards the end of
2020.
https://ambcrypto.com/this-2020-factor-could-be-the-key-to-bitcoin-reclaiming-60k-level/https://ambcrypto.com/india-binance-acquired-wazirx-gets-show-cause-notice-claiming-its-safe-haven-for-money-laundering/https://ambcrypto.com/will-india-classify-bitcoin-as-an-asset-class-soon/
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Why you should look closely at BTC, Eth, other alts’ trading
volumes
Why this BTC cycle is ‘going to be some-what different’
BTC: hash rate drops after China warns Xinjiang against
mining
of only USDT pair assets have been considered).
May was a turbulent month for the ecosys-tem as both buying and
selling volumes were taking over the industry. Now, according to
Coinmetrics, Binance’s trading volume has been largely dominated by
altcoin trading in 2021.
One of the reasons being its heavy altcoin list with USDT pairs,
but it took a noticeable leap over Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2021.
And yet, in the month of May, Ethereum registered the highest
trading volume, and it was followed up by Bit-coin. Dogecoin,
Binance Coin, XRP, and Cardano.
On Coinbase, the spread coverage by Ethere-um was more dominant
than on Binance, where BTC, ETH volumes were almost neck and neck.
Altcoin volumes lagged strongly on this platform.On FTX, the
trading volume was more compara-ble again for Bitcoin, Ethereum,
with other assets hardly accruing relatively high trading
activity.Finally, the CME was the only platform where Bit-coin
outperformed Ethereum in terms of Future volumes, a finding that
meant that institutional investors were still favoring Bitcoin over
Ethere-
um. Here, it is important to note that ETH Futures were only
recently introduced on the exchange.
Now, there are a few things that can be in-ferred from the
aforementioned trading volume differences on multiple exchanges,
with respect to multiple coins. When it came to altcoin trad-ing,
it has been limited to only Binance’s plat-form since it caters to
the largest retail inves-tors’ group. So, a majority of trading for
these assets usually comes from one particular end.
On the question of Bitcoin and Ethere-um, however,
unsurprisingly, the interest was widespread and cohesive. It can be
stated that both East UTC and WEST UTC time traders were involved
with Ethereum, Bitcoin trading,
Hence, it can be speculated that there is a high-er chance that
altcoin trading concentrated only on one platform might have been
prey to some form of wash trading over time. Bitcoin, Ethereum have
maintained relatively active trading activ-ity (not quantifiable)
across multiple platforms. While an argument can be made that the
listing of different altcoins makes a difference, major alt-coins
are still pretty popular across all exchanges.
With a market cap of almost $700 bil-lion, Bitcoin was trading
within the $36k price bracket at press time. After noting an
intermediate peak recently,
popular analyst Benjamin Cowen had assert-ed that Bitcoin’s
market cycle top was still well away. Nevertheless, as circled and
highlighted in the attached chart, Bitcoin has been ahead of both
cycle two and cycle three during dif-ferent stages. That being
said, it has failed to persist and keep pace with either of
them.
Here, it is essential to note that the above Bit-coin market
cycle ROI chart is measured from the market cycle bottom. Drawing
parallels with the previous cycle, Cowen now highlighted, “For us
to continue to follow the last market cycle, Bitcoin will have to
go up by $300,000 by the end of the year.”
Over the past 6 months, Bitcoin has registered a 100.15% surge.
If the same 100% is applied to the current $36k market price,
Bitcoin would just cross the $72k range. What’s more, according to
the ana-lyst, the journey from $30k to the $300k band defi-
nitely looks too “far-fetched” for now. Highlighting other
obstacles in Bitcoin’s path, Cowen added,
“Basically, higher the market capitalisation, the harder it is
to move the price. For Bitcoin it’ll take a lot of more volume and
with each cycle it’s going to get harder and harder to push it up
the curve.”
The analyst also suggested that it would be-come essential for
institutions to step up to take Bitcoin’s price to the
aforementioned level. How-
BI-MONTHLY DIGITAL NEWSPAPER
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 02
ever, an earlier analysis had pointed out that the same could
act as a hindrance and surprise people later. Further elaborating
on the same, Cowen said,
“This is the cycle of institutions and I’ve always been
skeptical that every institution owned by man is going to FOMO into
Bitcoin in 2021… I think a lot of institutions will continue to
pour in and this cycle is going to be some-what different than any
other cycle we’ve seen.”
Bitcoin’s price has been going through a volatile phase lately,
making the crypto-asset extremely sensitive to all kinds of
developments. Previously, the rehashing of China’s crypto-ban had
contrib-uted to the price dropping massively. How-ever, now that
the country is cracking down on mining, we may be in for another
dump.
China recently announced a ban on the mining of cryptocurrencies
in the Xinjiang zone citing “energy-saving environmen-tal
protection.” Xinjiang, along with Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, made
up three im-portant places in China contributing highly to the
mining pool. There have been strict actions taken in all three
areas by the au-thorities to prevent the mining of cryptos.
With China being a major player in terms of Bitcoin mining, the
hash rate has been already impacted. According to Chinese re-porter
Colin Wu, the total BTC hash rate fell on 11 June by 20E. The
reporter added,
Although many Bitcoin enthusiasts believe that this is FUD meant
to hurt the already tumbling val-ue of the world’s largest crypto,
mining pools like AntPool, F2Pool, and Poolin have been seeing
their hash rate fall over the past couple of days.
When the news first broke about Xinjiang, the hash rate across
Chinese mining pools fell by between 11% to 30% within 24
hours.
Similarly, other mining pools run by prominent exchanges like
Huobi and Binance also noted a 10% decline.
Here, it’s worth adding that the drop in the hash rate also
followed a difficulty ad-justment that took place nearly a week
ago. The hash rate often falls if the difficulty is adjusted
higher, but this time the difficul-ty was adjusted lower to 21.05
trillion at a block height of 685,440, which was a 16% drop
compared to its ATH reported in May.
Bitcoin holders may want to pay attention to Bitcoin’s price as
the dropping hash rate could invite selling pressure. At the time
of press, BTC was trading at $37,425, with the dominant sentiment
remaining one of ‘Extreme Fear.’
Trading volume has been an important metric to gauge the amount
of market activity in 2021. While assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum
have dominated the proceedings before, volumes have been much more
distrib-uted over the course of the last few months.
While Ethereum’s trading volume has caught up with Bitcoin on
Binance, Bitcoin led the charge for a significant period of time
before the month of May.
In this article, we will be looking at the differ-ent levels of
trading volumes across different ex-changes and what they may
indicate in terms of identifying the general investor (Trading
volumes
https://ambcrypto.com/why-you-should-look-closely-at-bitcoin-ethereum-other-alts-trading-volumes/https://ambcrypto.com/why-this-bitcoin-cycle-is-going-to-be-somewhat-different-than-any-other-cycle-weve-seen/https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-network-hash-rate-drops-after-china-warns-xinjiang-against-mining/
-
Is the worst finally over for BTC? what’s in store for for 2021?
What might a set-tlement in the XRP lawsuit look like?Market
perspective is vital while analyzing the trend of an asset.
Consider this - Observing Bitcoin’s 1-hour chart at the moment
could completely demoralize potential
investors. However, the 1-day or 12-hour chart would not seem
drastically bad as the asset is still accruing capital gains for
2021. Therefore, it is essential that we analyze Bitcoin and its
recent sell-off from a fundamental point of view, and figure out if
we are heading towards a long-term bearish period or if it is just
a bump in the road.
Over the past few months, we have discussed several on-chain
metrics that seemed over-bull-ish at times and suggesting an
impending cor-rection. However, we continued to ignore and
invalidate these signs as the market rallied for-ward, until the
recent crash. Now, according to data, certain indicators have
undergone a reboot, and these signs may allow panic to settle
down.
Before analyzing the reversals, it is signifi-cant to
acknowledge the gravity of this capit-ulation event. 19 May
registered the largest realized losses for Bitcoin on the daily
scale at $4.5 billion. It was larger than the losses witnessed in
Jan-Feb 2018 and March 2020. And yet, only 9-9.5% of the value were
unre-alized losses, a figure that was relatively small.
In March 2020, 44% was unrealized, where-as the magnitude was
114% back in 20218 (Unrealized losses determine the percent-age
that may still panic-sell in the market).
Now, one major positive that can be taken from the Net
Unrealized Profit/Losses or NUPL is the re-test at the support of
0.5. According to the chart above, this particular support
kickstarted multiple bullish cycles in 2013 and 2017 and presently,
it is reaching the 0.5-level for the first time in 2021.
Additionally, miners did not have any-thing to do with the
sell-off this time. Dur-ing major bearish cycles in the past,
miners have been responsible for strong sell-offs.
This time, however, short-term holders were more responsible for
extended corrections. Bit-coin Token holders between 1 month-6
month possibly chased the retail price throughout the cycle, and
once the price collapsed, pan-ic selling ensured the higher
realized losses for BTC bought between $50,000-$60,000.
Higher liquidations for leverage trades also led to a
short-squeeze which dragged BTC down to $30,000 for a brief
moment.
Right now, the funding rates across exchanges are cooling off as
well, with the selling pressure subsiding in the market. The worst
could be over for now, and with the fundamentals relatively
bullish, the market remains on course for a strong 2021.
In the next article, we will discuss the price market structure,
with potential buy-ing and selling zones for Bitcoin, and estimate
the long-term movement for the digital asset.
Now that we have a proper understand-ing of the key factors that
have undergone a reset, we will identify how it affects Bitcoin’s
market structure. It is important to note that Bitcoin exhibited an
aggressive market rally in 2021. It lasted more than 4 months, from
the beginning of January until the market sell-off in May. A
cooldown period is essential for such price surges, otherwise, the
structure would only be looking for a deeper drop from the top.
Coming to the important schematics of
BI-MONTHLY DIGITAL NEWSPAPER
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 03
a bull cycle, there are two particular ranges where most
institutions like to trade around - the Demand Zone and the Supply
Zone.
The Demand Zone represents a range dur-ing a period of
correction, one which ena-bles a sharp surge upwards within a few
price candles. Similarly, the Supply Zone is a range where the
asset may witness a sharp correc-tion after a bullish rally. Both
of these zones represent key windows of buying and sell-ing and are
currently evident on BTC’s chart.
As observed, the Demand Zone was re-tested during the price
correction, following which BTC surged immediately. One of the main
reasons why the Demand Zone facilitates a quick recovery is that
institutions largely trade from these ranges. Here, it is important
to note that institutions do not chase the market price, only
retail traders do.
Accredited investors wait for a correction be-fore getting their
orders through, and that is ex-actly what probably happened during
the sell-off.
Despite a wave of motions and replies over the last few weeks,
talks of a settlement between Ripple Labs, its execs, and the
United States Securities and Exchange Commission are never far
away. In fact, the same was referred to recently by at-torney John
Deaton when he claimed that,
“While the trial lawyers are fighting it out and arguing over
almost everything, the settlement lawyers are kicked back trying to
find a path of least resistance.”
Now, let us assume that these lawyers have successfully been
able to keep the intensity of the lawsuit behind them to push out a
settle-ment. What will such a settlement look like? At-torney
Jeremy Hogan is the latest to take a crack at this question, with
Hogan asserting that such a likelihood can only be entertained if
the settle-ment involves clauses that satisfy both parties.
Both parties, the attorney argued, will want different results
from such a settlement. According to Hogan, the SEC, for instance,
will want to put an end to this lawsuit with-out any damage to
their “street cred” with other crypto-companies. This will include
not only language enjoining Ripple from any ille-gal sales in the
future, but also a civil penalty to show that “Ripple did something
wrong.”
Then, there’s the question of disgorge-ment. Now, this was
something very specif-ic the agency sought when it first charged
the San Francisco-based blockchain firm. In fact, Hogan himself had
alluded to the same being a key part of the SEC’s prosecu-tion
during an interview a few months ago.
However, in the present day, “There’s just no way to fairly
“disgorge” profits to inves-tors because there’s no way of fairly
knowing who to “disgorge” to. How would you even come up with a
plan to disgorge say a bil-lion dollars that Ripple pays – to who?
Plus, there’s that small problem that it was literally your lawsuit
that caused the most damage.”
What about the defendants then? Accord-ing to Hogan, first and
foremost, Ripple would want assurances that it will be able to
maintain its business and ODL, with the civil penalty not being
significant enough to induce bankruptcy.
The first is a particularly significant assurance, especially
since in the past both Garlinghouse and Larsen have be-moaned the
lack of regulatory clarity in the United States to hint at a move
abroad.
It’s worth noting, however, that in a lat-er interview, when the
narrative took an “us v. them” turn, the Ripple exec was quick to
say that he is “committed to San Francisco.”
What’s more, the firm would want much-needed clarity going
forward, clar-ity on the status of XRP, a development that will
tell the secondary market that the “SEC thing” is well and truly
over. Such clarity, ideally, should be enough to give exchanges the
confidence to re-list XRP.
Here, it’s worth noting that Hogan also entertained two other
possibilities, each of which wouldn’t exactly be in the best-case
scenarios for XRP or Ripple. These included possible limitations on
the sale of escrowed XRP and Ripple being restricted to private
sales to only companies and clients, the lat-ter of which can be
expected to “bottleneck the flow of XRP into the market for
years.”
https://ambcrypto.com/zoom-out-on-bitcoin-heres-whats-in-store-for-the-rest-of-2021/https://ambcrypto.com/what-might-a-settlement-in-the-xrp-lawsuit-look-like/
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This time, have things changed between Bitcoin, Eth, and USDT?
Bitcoin still not out of the woods: 4 obstacles it needs to
overcome
EtC announces Magneto upgrade; Will the price react?
such as USDT, USDC, etc have injected more liquidity into space,
and have often acted as crypto reserves during choppy markets. At
the moment, we are amid a choppy trading ses-sion and recovery has
been expected to arrive when big USDT holders start buying back
in.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio or SSR has been iden-tified as a bullish
bias for the market. Whenever the SSR ratio is low, it is
considered that the stable-coin supply has more “buying power” to
purchase Bitcoin, hence driving the market up. Historically it has
been observed back in the early half of 2018.
However, the landscape might have changed now. Back in
2017-2018, only a few major assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
Litecoin had stablecoin pairs on exchanges.
The supply was still low and its movement
Bitcoin and the Altcoins are currently in a market rut. The
bullish recovery hasn’t been smooth sailing after the prices
dropped at the end of May. While the industry has had its fair
share of positive changes and signs of reversals, substantial
results haven’t really panned out since the May 19th crash.
High Tether reserves on exchanges have kept the bullish
narrative somewhat alive. However, it might be time to incorporate
another point of view; to understand that things might not follow
previous factors, which were fundamentally bullish before.
Is USDT going to pull Bitcoin down, and push Ethereum and other
altcoins up?
Stablecoins have become an integral part of the industry over
the past 3 years. Assets
was more reactive. The market dynamics have completely changed
now, as most crypto as-sets have a USDT pairing on platforms. Hence
it can be inferred that the SSR ratio cannot be considered as a
‘buying power’ for only BTC.
The introduction of DeFi further complicates matters, as the
desire for stablecoin yields became extremely popular. Demand
increases for stable assets and now, the industry is possibly at a
point where USDT has less impact on Bitcoin’s movement.
With a growing number of investors, institutions, and interest,
the cryp-tocurrency market isn’t straightforward any-more, let
alone the factors determining a bull-run.
USDT and other stable-coins will continue to have a say on
Bitcoin, Altcoins movement, but it is not as definitive as it was
before.
Tether reserves on exchanges dropped recently as well but the
impact on BTC’s price hasn’t been outrightly positive. The digital
asset class is evolving and USDT is currently embedded with that
narrative.
BI-MONTHLY DIGITAL NEWSPAPER
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 04
Ethereum Classic is in the news today after it announced the
next network upgrade scheduled for 21st July. The upgrade dubbed
Magneto will take place at block 13,189,133 and will implement
ECIP-1103. It will also include Ethereum Berlin upgrade features,
as per the announcement.
ECIP-1103 will allow the addition of all the protocol upgrades
which were a part of the Berlin update that took place in April.
The protocols include various EIPs optimizing gas and transactions
which pertain to security enhancements important to the network.
The implementation of ECIP-1103 will ensure max-imum compatibility
across the two networks.
According to the schedule shared by the ETC team, changes must
have been al-ready deployed on the Mordor Classic PoW testnet on
2nd June and the Kotti Classic PoA testnet on 9 June. The team
added,
“To ensure a successful fork, we ask ETC
consumers to upgrade their node software to update their clients
to a Magneto compatible ver-sion if they have not done so already.
If you’re not operating nodes or services, but use ETC through
other services, then check with that service to en-sure they’re
supporting the Magneto hard fork.”
While the team is working on the blockchain, ETC has been among
the highest returning tokens this year. The digital asset, at press
time, was re-turning 850% year-to-date and hit an all-time high at
$184 recently. The growth of ETC has puzzled many chartists who
expected the price to hit half of its current ATH by the end of the
year. Howev-er, it looks like the ETC market managed to ap-preciate
on the back of Ethereum and Bitcoin’s volatility before corrections
eventually set in.
In fact, Etherplan’s Donald McIntyre had asserted that it may
continue to benefit from the volatility from ETH and BTC markets.
Ac-cording to him, the price of BTC will hit close to $125,693 by
the end of this cycle while ETC’s value would be 5% of BTC’s
valuation. This would place ETC at a value between $900 and
$1,000.
With the crypto-asset slipping by almost 70% from its all-time
high on the back of the aforementioned corrections, the upgrade
sched-uled in July can help the crypto’s price and might bring it
closer to McIntyre’s estimate.
After 19 May’s crash, the crypto-market witnessed another
mini-crash on 8 June, and yet again, all eyes were on Bitcoin. The
king coin slipped down as far as $31k, a level the market had not
seen in a long time. While May’s crash was colossal too, the price
did not kneel down to the aforementioned level. What’s more, with
every drop on the charts, the death cross narrative is becoming
even more prevalent.
It’s worth noting, however, that the asset bounced back and was
trading around the $36,800-range, at press time. Since the price
has already started moving up, is it safe to as-sume that Bitcoin
has already bottomed out?
Have we stepped into the early stages of an upward trend or is
it merely a price swing? And most importantly, is this the right
time for traders to step into the market?
After the May crash, Bitcoin had to cling on to the $34k-level
for a long time, and then continue moving upwards from there.
However, that did not happen, and as a re-sult, the market
witnessed the 8 June crash.
1. Criteria one and two: According to tech-nical analyst Michaël
van de Poppe, a reversal looks like the most likely scenario at
this point and the market ‘might’ get to witness a bullish
divergence soon. “First step is that we get into the liquidity zone
and the second step is to break back or bounce back and that’s what
we’re do-ing. But we’re still not out of the woods yet.”
2. 2 more obstacles: Another popular analyst with the pseudonym
Don Alt re-cently highlighted, “BTC needs to punch through this red
resistance ($34k) and then it’s home free to do another crab run to
$40k. Not out of the woods yet, but decent first signs of the range
boundary holding.”
Post that, according to Poppe, Bitcoin’s price has to sustain a
breach of another crucial level at $35.3k. Even though the daily
chart projected a favorable picture, the two-hourly chart painted a
completely different scenario. Bitcoin was still making lower highs
and lower lows there, and that according to the analyst did not
give a concrete reversal confirmation.
Nevertheless, if Bitcoin clears all the obstacles on its path
and bounces back,
“Then you are actually destroying the structure of making lower
highs and low-er lows and the next step is that you’re going to
attack these highs once again.”
Pointing out the ongoing scenario, he add-ed, “It’s a good
bounce that we’re seeing on Bitcoin right now, but most likely
we’re going to see resistance. The emergence of a bullish
divergence will make the market refuse to drop even further because
of the bias pressure coming into the market and then you slow-ly
start to adapt towards and upward trend.”
Hence, this seems to be the right stage for participants to
enter the market before the flagship crypto’s price steams even
further.
Projecting the upcoming “higher high,” when compared to the
current market lev-el, another analyst tweeted, “A fakeout to the
downside that failed to make a lower low and completed in 3 waves-
implying this was a corrective move down and keeping the “completed
ABC” count in-tact. I think we continue to push higher from
here.”
https://ambcrypto.com/this-time-around-have-things-changed-between-bitcoin-ethereum-and-usdt/https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-still-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-4-obstacles-it-needs-to-overcome/https://ambcrypto.com/ethereum-classic-announces-magneto-upgrade-will-the-price-react/