Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

October 2014

© Amárach Research


Polarised Sentiment

Something interesting is happening to Irish

sentiment about the state of the nation – it

seems to be becoming more polarised

between economic ‘optimists’ and economic

‘pessimists’.

While our Economic Recovery Index has

reached another record high in October, we

have seen a jump in both the % thinking things

aren’t great with the economy and the %

saying things are good with the economy.

That said, a majority of Irish people still

continue to say the economy is clearly

improving; and only a minority feel it’s bad or

just stable.

But one to watch in the run up to Christmas

and the start of the new year…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

October 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 12th-18th October 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – details

at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index reached a new record level in October 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, October 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

the rate of increase in the ERI has slowed, but it’s still rising…


A Matter of Measurement

Sept ’14: 15% Oct ’14: 18%

Sept ’14: 33% Oct ’14: 28%

Sept ’14: 39% Oct ’14: 38%

Sept ’14: 13% Oct ’14: 14%

Sept ’14: 1% Oct ’14: 2%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Oct-09 47 30 22 1 0 19.6

Oct-10 56 23 18 2 1 16.3

Oct-11 42 31 25 2 0 22.0

Oct-12 48 28 21 3 0 19.8

Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4

Sep-14 15 33 39 13 1 38.1

Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3

the rise in % feeling the economic situation is getting worse reverses recent trends


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


October 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 C2DE

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 18% 17% 18% 14% 20% 17% 18% 16% 17% 12% 21%


is bad but has stabilized 28% 26% 29% 22% 29% 28% 28% 25% 27% 26% 26%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

38% 35% 38% 31% 31% 40% 39% 40% 34% 40% 34%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

14% 17% 10% 17% 12% 11% 12% 15% 15% 17% 10%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%

ERI Score 38.3 40.1 36.5 37.9 34.6 37.7 38.6 41.9 39.2 42.2 34.7

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Oct-09 48 46 55 56

Oct-10 26 41 44 52

Oct-11 26 38 49 45

Oct-12 26 38 48 44

Oct-13 30 36 44 43

Sep-14 45 42 54 44

Oct-14 41 43 51 40

sentiment turned more negative in October, though remains in positive territory


Unaffected?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 10% 14% 7% 14% 8% 7% 5% 17% 10% 14% 8%

Slightly Agree 33% 32% 34% 36% 30% 26% 28% 41% 33% 39% 28%

Neither/Nor 14% 14% 14% 12% 16% 18% 15% 11% 17% 15% 13%

Slightly Disagree 19% 18% 20% 16% 24% 21% 26% 12% 16% 16% 22%

Strongly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 19% 25% 22% 17% 19% 14% 26%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Oct-09 16 32 61 33

Oct-10 15 25 59 27

Oct-11 14 22 54 23

Oct-12 16 25 56 25

Oct-13 18 24 57 24

Sep-14 26 25 57 28

Oct-14 23 25 57 25

the % of consumers prioritising savings and debt repayments remains unchanged


Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 5% 7% 3% 9% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 3%

Slightly Agree 18% 19% 17% 19% 18% 15% 15% 22% 23% 21% 16%

Neither/Nor 20% 23% 18% 20% 19% 23% 18% 21% 23% 24% 17%

Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 29% 21% 26% 27% 29% 27% 25% 25% 27%

Strongly Disagree 28% 24% 31% 25% 29% 30% 33% 24% 22% 22% 33%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy the

lowest price

products or

services

I am always on the

lookout for

opportunities to

switch to cheaper

suppliers

I have more choice

than before when it

comes to products

and services

I always buy Irish

when I can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48

Aug-14 56 71 60 51

Sep-14 55 74 61 53

Oct-14 56 68 58 51

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 58% 58% 59% 57% 52% 49% 60% 70% 61% 64% 54%

Happiness 56% 54% 57% 55% 54% 50% 62% 58% 55% 59% 53%

Stress 36% 32% 40% 38% 41% 40% 36% 28% 34% 29% 42%

Worry 31% 28% 33% 33% 34% 34% 30% 26% 30% 27% 34%

Anxiety 25% 22% 27% 30% 25% 26% 26% 19% 23% 21% 28%

Boredom 24% 24% 24% 45% 28% 25% 18% 10% 26% 23% 25%

Physical Pain 20% 22% 19% 16% 17% 18% 21% 26% 21% 17% 23%

Sadness 18% 17% 18% 24% 20% 16% 13% 15% 20% 17% 18%

Anger 13% 11% 15% 17% 20% 12% 10% 8% 16% 8% 17%

Fear 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 9% 6% 6% 10% 6% 12%


% saying Yes: October 2014

Amárach Outlook


Year End Prospects

The softening of sentiment in October (or

rather, a greater polarisation) comes at a

crucial time in the run up to Christmas for

retailers and others.

There’s still a positive momentum showing up

in car and house sales – among others – but

it’s fragile at an emotional level.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014

Documents

economic recovery indexsource

economic progress

economic optimists

economic pessimists

worsethe economic situation

stages of recovery

amrach research briefing

irish sentiment