2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP) Alternatives Analysis Orange County OUTBoard September 19 th , 2012
Mar 30, 2015
2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and
Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP)Alternatives Analysis
Orange County OUTBoardSeptember 19th, 2012
What is DCHC MPO?
What is 2040 MTP?
What is Alternatives Analysis?
How to understand the data provided for the Alternatives Analysis
Next steps
Presentation Outline
Durham-Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization
Responsible for long range transportation planning in Durham City and County, and Parts of Orange County and Chatham County.
Federal mandate – MPO must plan use of federal transportation funding
Project must be in MPO plan to receive state or federal funding (CTP, MTP and TIP)
Policy Board -- Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) composed mostly of local elected officials. 3
What is the DCHC MPO?
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What is the DCHC MPO?
MetropolitanTransportation Plan
(Minimum 20 Year Plan)
Comprehensive Transportation Plan
(30+ Year Needs)
TIP(7 Year Plan)
Relationship Between Plans
Collector Street Plan
Lists highway, transit and other transportation projects to address future transportation deficiencies through year 2040.
Assumptions – based on future land use, population and employment.
Fiscal Constraint – Anticipated revenues must cover anticipated project costs.
Funding -- Projects must be in MTP to receive state and federal funding (via Transportation Improvement Program – TIP)
Used for Planning e.g., In development review, use MTP to reserve right-of-way
for future highway and fixed guideway projects
What is the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)?
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What is the 2040 MTP Process?
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1. Goals and Objectives
2. Socioeconomic Data (population and employment forecasts)
3. Deficiency Analysis
4. Alternatives Analysis
5. Preferred Option
6. Draft MTP
7. Air Quality Conformity
We are Here!
Aug.-Oct. 2012
Oct.-Dec. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jan.-Apr.2013
8. Federal Approval
By June 2013
What – Set of highway and transit projects, and land use
assumptions that produce transportation scenario for year 2040
Why – Compare impact of different projects and sets of projects
on meeting transportation demand. Inform development of final MTP and CTP
When – Release in August 2012 Public input (e.g., workshops, public hearing) in August,
September and early October 2012
Alternatives Analysis
Alternatives Analysis (cont.)
Land Use/Network
Highway Intensive
Transit Intensive
Moderate
CommPlan Yes Yes Yes
All-in-Transit
No Yes Yes
• We will compare 5 different Alternatives• Each Alternative had the following:
Land Use Scenario
Transportation Network
Alternative
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--Guide Totals--
Jurisdiction 2010 2040 Growth%
IncreaseAnnual Rate
Durham County 268,925 432,571 163,646 61% 1.6%Orange County 134,325 197,675 63,350 47% 1.3%Chatham County(1)(2) 38,991 71,672 32,681 84% 2.0%Person County(1) 31,845 44,784 12,939 41% 1.1%
Total 474,086 746,702 272,616 58% 1.5%
2040 MTP
Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios
--Guide Totals--
Jurisdiction 2010 2040 Growth%
IncreaseAnnual Rate
Durham County 194,770 306,637 111,867 57% 1.5%Orange County 70,491 119,787 49,296 70% 1.8%Chatham County 10,011 19,509 9,498 95% 2.2%Person County 8,791 13,093 4,302 49% 1.3%
Total 284,063 459,026 174,963 62% 1.6%
2040 MTP
We start with Guide TotalsPopulation
Employment
Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios
Community Plan Based on local comprehensive plans Used in Deficiency Analysis (June 2012)
All-in-Transit Based on local comprehensive plans, plus… Additional and enhanced transit oriented
development Additional development attraction to rail and
premium transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios Orange County Dwelling Units
Community Plan All-in-Transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Land Use Scenarios Orange County Employment
Community Plan All-in-Transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Transportation Networks
Highway Intensive Transit Intensive Moderate
Highway • 2035 LRTP• CTP highway projects
410 new lanes miles $3.9 billion highway costs 2,979 total lane miles in
network
Basically, 2015 and 2025 tier No 2035 tier or CTP highway
projects
120 new lanes miles $1.2 billion highway costs 2,842 total lanes miles in
network
Basically, 2035 LRTP (minus some minor highway projects)
261 new lanes miles $2.5 billion highway costs 2,737 total lanes miles in network
Transit • Current bus transit• No rail transit
2,028 bus transit line miles
(Triangle)
• Current bus transit• County plans (based on ½ cent
sales tax)• LRT between Durham and
Wake (instead of CRT)• LRT and CRT extensions in
Orange County• CRT addition between Cary
and western RTP• All Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
in Chapel Hill
2,646 bus transit line miles (Triangle)
69,354 transit service miles (Triangle)
260 miles of rail transit alignment (Triangle)
• Current bus transit• County plans (based on ½ cent
sales tax)• LRT and CRT (based on Locally
Preferred Alternative) • MLK Blvd Bus Rapid Transit
(BRT) in Chapel Hill
2,882 bus transit line miles (Triangle)
66,211 transit service miles (Triangle)
75 miles of rail transit line (Triangle)
Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive
• Only highest priority highway projects
• 2015 and 2025 tiers from 2035 LRTP
• East End Conn.• I-40 and I-85 in Orange
Co.• US 70 and I-85 in
Durham Co.• NC 54 in Durham Co.
• 120 new lane miles
• $1.2 billion est. highway cost
Highways
Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate
• Basically 2035 LRTP
Plus..• I-40 HOV/HOT• Northern Durham
Parkway• US 15-501 Freeway
Conversion• NC 147 widening• NC 54/US 15-501 Bypass
(Chapel Hill)
• 261 new lane miles
• $2.5 billion est. highway cost
Highways
Alternatives Analysis -- Highway Intensive
• Basically 2035 LRTP
• Plus CTP highway projects
Plus..• I-40 (ext.), I-85 and NC
147 HOV/HOT• US 15-501/Manning
interchange• NC 751 in Chatham Co.• US 70 bypass widening
(H’boro)
• 410 new lane miles
• $3.9 billion est. highway cost
Highways
Alternatives Analysis -- Highway Intensive
• Current bus transit
• No rail transit
Transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate
Plus…• bus transit in
county plans• LRT and regional
rail based on LPA• MLK Blvd bus
rapid transit (Chapel Hill)
Transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive
Plus…• LRT Durham to
Raleigh• LRT and CRT
extensions in Orange Co.
• CRT: Cary through western RTP
• Addt’/ bus rapid transit in Chapel Hill
Transit
Triangle Regional Model OutputPerformance MeasuresTravel IsochronesTravel TimeCongestion Maps (V/C)
Performance Measures -- DCHC MPO
SE Data 2010 2040 2040Transportation Network 2010 E+C 2035
1 Performance Measures 1.1.1 Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT-daily) 13,217,550 20,368,697 20,581,822 1.1.1a Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT-per capita) 33 32 33 1.2.1 Total Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT-daily) 312,669 581,776 536,746 1.2.1a Total Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT-per capita) 0.77 0.92 0.85 1.3 Average Speed by Facility (miles/hour) 1.3.1 - Freeway 63 57 61 1.3.2 - Arterial 42 38 39 1.3.3 - All Facility 51 47 50
Alternatives Analysis -- Triangle Regional Model Output
Currently running the two Transit Intensive Alternatives, again. Results available early next week.
Alternatives Analysis -- Performance Measures (VMT & Peak Speed)
Alternatives Analysis -- Performance Measures (Mode Share)
82%
11%
3%4%
2040 E+C
82%
11%
3%4%
Comm. Plan, Highway
81%
11%
3% 1% 4%
Comm. Plan, Moderate
80%
11%
3% 1%5%
AIT, Moderate
81%
10%
3% 2% 4%
Comm. Plan, Transit
80%
10%
3%
2% 5%
AIT, Transit
Alternatives Analysis -- Moderate Network(boarding/alighting by stop)
All-in-Transit land use scenario provides about 25% increase in rail boardings/alightings.
Alternatives Analysis -- Transit Intensive(boarding/alighting by stop)
Station boarding/alighting is generally low west and north of UNC campus (above red line in table)
Caveat – The Transit Intensive network must be run again to correct highway network. These values could change.
Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times
Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times
Alternatives Analysis Output – Travel Times
Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps - Moderate
In Moderate, clears up congestion on many major roads, but congestion persists on I-40, NC 147, NC 54 and US 15-501.
Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps – Highway Intensive
In Highway Intensive, congestion persists on many of the same corridors.
Alternatives Analysis Output -- Congestion Maps – Transit Intensive
In Transit Intensive, congestion (still) persists on many of the same corridors.
Are there certain projects and policies that should be promoted?
Invest more on Roadways or Transit?
Invest more on roadway widenings or “hotspots” (e.g., intersections with long delays)?
Invest more on local bus service or fixed guideway service (e.g., rail transit)?
Use traditional revenue sources only or increase local taxes (e.g., sales tax, real estate transfer tax)?
What are your preferences?Given the limited budget, and projected areas of congestion, where do we invest our money?
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2040 MTP-- Next Steps
Develop the Preferred Option (release in October 2012)
Get public feedback on the Preferred Option (October through December 2012)
Approve draft 2040 MTP(December 2012)