ALICT opening presentation 9.10.12, African Union Headquarters

© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1537© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1537

Tessa FinlevResearch ManagerInstitute for the FuturePalo Alto, CA USA

© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1537 2

We are all faced an epic challenge:

to make the future we want to see.






Foresight:a plausible, internally consistent, provocative story from the future


Any useful statement about the future should at first appear to be ridiculous.

- Jim Dator


Foresight NOT Prediction


Times of volatility and uncertainty

demand more foresight




Future Forces: unstoppable changes that are shaping

our present and our future, and affecting our current lives and long-term goals.


Three important future forces• Digital natives• Big data• New peer to peer exchanges

Signal: a local disruption or innovation that indicates or signals a possible future


Digital natives



Digital Native Risks and Opportunities

How will Olayinka, and the rest of the digital natives influence the future of our knowledge societies?

How will their needs, and even their demands be different from the policies and support we are providing them with?


Big data



Big Data Risks and Opportunities

What is the danger of ignoring qualitative aspects of life?

How will big data affect foreign aid or multinational flows?

How might big data improve transparency and corruption, or how might people in power manipulate data?


Big Data Risks and Opportunities

How might the age of big data increase global inequalities as some countries, communities, and organizations are left out of the potential benefits, while others leapfrog into a new era?


New peer-to-peer exchange


participatory online platforms


The bottom line is this:

As the organizational structure of our world shifts, we face a time of uncertainty, often making the way forward unclear.

Foresight helps bring our path into clarity.


From Foresight to Insight: an “Aha” moment


Insight gathered:

Signal implications in core modules on ICT, STI and education



Insight gathered:

• key tension in your pillar the next 10 years

• scenario implications and the associated policy recommendations



Action:

a clear, compelling way forward


At the end of the day it is up to each of you to take action and make these futures come true!


The African Context: futures thinking is not so new

• Kenya

• South Africa






What role can futures thinking play in government policy?


Finland’s Ministry of the Future:

Singapore’s RAHS Programme


Finally:

Setting the stage for our upcoming adventure in this futures thinking workshop.


Step 1:

• From expert in our pillar to expert in our complete national knowledge society landscape.

• What are the common themes across pillars?


Step 2:

• From expert in our nation to understanding the region.

• What are the common themes across countries?


Steps 3 and 4:

• From alternative futures to envisioning our preferred knowledge society future.

• Building our roadmap to get there.


Step 5:

Becoming regional leaders and networkers.


Workshop challenge:

Think quickly and act fastFind comfort in uncertainty

Improvise Lead others


You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness. It comes through non conformity, the courage to turn your back on the old formulas, the courage to invent the future.

-Thomas Sankara

© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1537 46© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1537

ALICT opening presentation 9.10.12, African Union Headquarters

Government & Nonprofit