Alessandra Venturini - the demand of caregivers

www.migrationpolicycentre.eu MPC

The demand of Caregivers

Anna Di Bartolomeo, Sona Kalantaryan,

Alessandra Venturini

MPC,EUI, Florence

Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography

Conference Demography

MPC, EUI, Florence 4-5 February 2016


• Women migration has increased in Europe 49.5% of total

migrant population

• The increase in supply, in the average level of education

• but not increase in the quality of the women jobs

• 34% in low (ISCO9) and 41% in medium skilled jobs (ISCO4-8)

• 30-40% according to the definition in the care sector.

• growth of native care workers 17% 2006-2012

• growth of foreign care workers 84% 2006-2012

• Foreign share 6% 2006 to 17% 2012


• Care givers occupation complex

• -’live in’ worker living with the employer

• -’live out’ worker not living with the employer

• - multiple jobs holder

• Complex to measure

• EULFS 3digit ISCO code

• Personal care and related workers (514)

• Other personal services workers (513)

• Domestics and reletated helps (913)


Share of foreign caregivers


Gender• In all the countries are mainly female

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

90.0

Total caregivers (513, 514, 913)

%TCNs


• The objective of the research is to model and

forecast the demand of caregivers

• Factors affecting the demand:


• Increasing share of the elderly

•• Old age dependency ratio (65+/20-64) appropriate for pension studies

• Super Old age dependency ratio (75+/20-74)

• Impact on the welfare cost and on the long term care needs of the elderly

908/02/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu

Fig.1: Old age dependency ratio 1952-2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

65+

/ 20

-65

World

27 MS

Source: Philippe Fargues, 2011, Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online


Population 75+/ population 20-74

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

28 MS

World


Morbility% people perceiving severe long-standing limitations in usual activities due to health

problem

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

65+

75+



The demand for care services will increase

and the demand of care givers in the public, private and

family sectors according to the type of welfare state model

prevailing in the economy will increase .

Demand of care givers will increase not only because the

elderly persons increase

but also becuase the domestic labour supply declines.


Average weekly hours allocated by women to care

activities for elderly/disabled relatives

(OCDE survey on the use of time)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% of unemployed and inactive on pop aged 15-64 Females


Long term expenditure in kind and in cash benefits %

on GNP SHA and ESSPROS database

01

23

40

12

34

01

23

40

12

34

2006 2008 2010 2012

2006 2008 2010 2012 2006 2008 2010 2012 2006 2008 2010 2012

Austria Belgium Germany Denmark

Spain France Greece Ireland

Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal

Sweden UK mean

Ltce

xpok

yearGraphs by country


01

23

4ltc

expo

k

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011year

Austria BelgiumGermany DenmarkSpain FranceGreece IrelandItaly LuxembourgNetherlands PortugalSweden UK


• Test Card-Di Nardo

• No competition between native care W. and

foreign care W.

• Complementarity Research Barone Mocetti

(Italy) 2013, Romiti Rossi (UK) 2012, Romiti

Rossi (Italy) 2012, Ferrer (Spain) 2011


• Equation

• LCGt,c= a L (fuolf)t,c + b Lo75t,c + c Expt,c + d ExpDt,nc+ et,c

• fuolf= female unemployed or out of the labour force

• Lo75= older than 75 years

• Exp= Long term care expenditure on both in kind and in cash

%GNP

• ExpD= intereacted dummy for Nordic countries


Restricted estimates of the demand of caregivers

Log Caregivers-Restrictive(1) (2) (3)

VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU

Log Unemployed and Inactive -2.334*** -2.420** -2.003*(0.756) (1.031) (1.050)

Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)

Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.164** -0.837 -1.569**(0.480) (0.655) (0.666)

Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)

Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes Observations 84 84 84R-squared 0.439 0.330 0.336Number of id 14 14 14






Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)


Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)







Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)


Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)



Extended estimates of the demand of caregivers

(4) (5) (6)VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU

Log Unemployed and Inactive -1.660*** -1.900*** -1.505**(0.470) (0.558) (0.722)

Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)

Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.335*** -1.262*** -2.097***(0.298) (0.354) (0.458)

Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)

Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes Observations 84 84 84

R-squared 0.528 0.440 0.457Number of id 14 14 14

Log Caregivers-extended





Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)


Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)








Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)

Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)


Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)





• Different specification with mobility

• 65 weighted by morbility

• 75 weighted by morbility

• Nothing change


Forecasts

34,711 37,329 45,479 56,485 66,465

897 1,116

1,800

2,724

3,561

2,749

3,258

4,840

6,978

8,916

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tho

usan

ds

Restricted FOR

Extended FOR


Forecasts are sensitive to the female participation

• if it increases demand increases

• Forecasts are sensitive to morbility

• If morbility improuves less caregivers


Forecasts (000)

34,711 37,329 45,479 56,485 66,465

897 1.116

1.800

2,724

3,561

2,749 3,258

4,840

6,978

8,916

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tho

usan

ds Restricted FOR

Extended FOR


• Forecasted stock but not the flows

• Circular migration larger inflows

• Reunified family members thus lower

lavour inflows

Alessandra Venturini - the demand of caregivers

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