WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, INC. LEXINGTON, MA www.wintergreenresearch.com Alcatel Market Opportunities, Market Forecasts, and Market Strategies, 2005-2011 Alcatel Market Assessment Picture by Susan Eustis Mountains Of Opportunity Expand To The Heartland of Data Centers REPORT # SH29821428 262 PAGES 107 TABLES AND FIGURES 2005 $2,800
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WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, INC. LEXINGTON, MA www.wintergreenresearch.com
Alcatel Market Opportunities, Market
Forecasts, and Market Strategies, 2005-2011
Alcatel Market Assessment
Picture by Susan Eustis
Mountains Of Opportunity Expand To The Heartland of Data Centers
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about the company
WinterGreen Research Founded in 1985, provides strategic market assessments in software, communications products, communications services, and advanced technology. Reports focus on opportunities to expand existing markets or develop new markets. The reports access corporate positioning, market strategies, and product marketing opportunities. Reports evaluate the impact of new technologies. Reports assess the strategies and positions of leading participants. The principals of WinterGreen Research have been involved in analysis and forecasting of international business opportunities in telecommunications and advanced computer technology markets for over 30 years. Research Methodology
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Alcatel Market Opportunities, Market Forecasts, and Market
Strategies, 2005-2011
Alcatel is uniquely positioned to address the evolving communications networks. Driving forces in communications and telecommunications markets relate to the rapid adoption of mobile communications technology and infrastructure. The convergence of communication onto one IP based network infrastructure has an impact on market, technology, and competitive forces. The convergence of DWDM transport and optical access to the home is a further market force.
Global information and communications technology is achieving a revolution in its potential impact. In the year 2005, telecommunications has become the engine of the global economy, providing a market thrust for supply chain efficiency, flat fee worldwide voice communications, and exchange of information between partners.
The Alcatel 7750 service router delivers Ethernet connectivity smoothly and securely between organizations with multiple LAN sites. The simplicity and ubiquity of Ethernet make it an easy service to roll out, immediately enabling enterprises a fully connected, anywhere-to-anywhere network.
By leveraging the service router MPLS features, a national VPLS service that is highly available and responds to the bandwidth needs required by the customer is possible. VPLS addresses enterprise customer requirements by enriching VPN service mix with Ethernet.
Reducing customer churn is a priority. Giving service providers the tools to stay ahead of customer demand is what Alcatel brings to the table. Alcatel IP activities relate to technology and deployment with VPLS, thus providing a viable solution for managed communications services that increases revenue, reduces costs and ultimately improves customer satisfaction.
Alcatel VPLS solution permits businesses to connect multiple sites as if they were one large local area network. They can exchange data without the expensive, onerous requirement of building a new physical network.
The Alcatel telecommunications markets have shifted to become communications markets. This is the result of convergence of voice and data networks to digital transport of voice, video, and data signals. Transport over existing TDM infrastructure is being replaced with transport over IP infrastructure.
The move to digital signal transport has bought significant diversity to the markets. Companies that failed to embrace new technology have had significant market declines. Alcatel has had enormous success, dominating digital subscriber loop technology (DSL). Alcatel is positioned to leverage its presence in access DSL markets to bring systems integration and new services for carriers.
Alcatel is focused on the continued enhancement of its IP portfolio in order to meet the diverse needs of its customer base and ensure high customer satisfaction. Alcatel is a leading provider of IP solutions. 70 service providers in 30 countries have selected the Alcatel IP portfolio.
Worldwide telecommunications service provider equipment market forecasts indicate that markets at $2.2 billion in 2004 are anticipated to reach $25.5 billion by 2010. Strong growth is anticipated as
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wireline networks are used to provide voice over IP, video conferencing, supply chain business process information transport, and general Internet protocol signal transport.
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Alcatel Market Opportunities, Market Forecasts, and Market Strategies,
2005-2011
Table of Contents ALCATEL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 Alcatel Telecommunications Market Driving Forces ES-1 Index Sales of Alcatel Market Shares ES-4 Telecommunications Market Forecasts ES-5
1. TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND COMMUNICATIONS MARKET DESCRIPTION AND MARKET DYNAMICS 1-1
1.1 Network Service Needs 1-1 1.1.1 Network Service Solutions 1-2 1.1.2 Enterprise Network Services Market Description 1-4 1.1.3 Converged Voice, Data, And Video Using Internet Protocol (IP) Standards Technologies: IP Telephony 1-5 1.1.4 Broadband Voice Next Generation Network (NGN) 1-5 1.1.5 Value-Added Services 1-6 1.1.6 Voice Over IP (VoIP) Service Providers 1-6 1.1.7 Web GUI 1-7 1.1.8 Charging Micro Payments 1-7
1.2 Increasing Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) 1-8 1.2.1 Improved Quality Of Service 1-8 1.2.2 Reduced Capital And Operational Costs 1-9 1.2.3 Enhanced Operability 1-10
1.3 Impact of Competition 1-12 1.4 Market Growth Dynamics 1-14 1.5 Converged Voice And Data Networks 1-16 1.6 Wireless Networks 1-17
1.6.1 New Generation Of Wireless Systems 1-21 1.6.2 Provides Flexibility 1-22 1.6.3 User Experience 1-22 1.6.4 Protects Investments 1-22 1.6.5 Increases Efficiency 1-23 1.6.6 Integrated Management Tools 1-25 1.6.7 Cost-Effective Capacity And Coverage 1-25
1.7 Multimedia Markets 1-26 1.8 IP Telephony Service Solutions 1-28 1.9 Web Services 1-28 1.10 Strategies To Improve Performance 1-29 1.11 Customer Financing Arrangements 1-32 1.12 Market Makers 1-33 1.13 Demand For Total Solutions 1-38 1.14 Marketing Globally 1-39 1.15 Internet Traffic 1-41
Communications Enterprise Equipment 2-40 2.7.1 Worldwide PBX Enterprise Voice Telecommunications Equipment Market Forecasts 2-42 2.7.2 Worldwide IP to TDM Enterprise Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Forecasts 2-44 2.7.3 Worldwide TDM to IP Enterprise Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Forecasts 2-46 2.7.4 Worldwide IP PBX Enterprise Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Forecasts 2-48 2.7.5 Worldwide Digital Subscriber Loop (xDSL) and Fiber to the Building (FTC) Enterprise Market Forecasts 2-50 2.7.6 Worldwide Frame Relay Enterprise Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Forecasts 2-52 2.7.7 Worldwide Telecommunications Service Provider IP Equipment Market Forecasts 2-53
2.8 Principal Competitive Factors In Telecommunication Markets 2-54 2.9 Market Growth Forces 2-56
2.9.1 Fast Pace Of Adoption Of Internet Commerce 2-57 2.9.2 Teleconferencing And Video Telephony 2-58 2.9.3 Global Communications Networking Industry In 2005 2-59 2.9.4 Telecommunications Industry Adjustment In 2005 2-59
3.5 Alcatel Satellite Systems 3-69 3.5.1 Alcatel And Finmeccanica Satellite Systems 3-69 3.5.2 Venus Express Spacecraft 3-76 3.5.3 Alcatel ESA Galileo Program Financing 3-76
4. ALCATEL COMPANY ORGANIZATION AND STRATEGY AND TECHNOLOGY 4-1 4.1 Alcatel Organization 4-1 4.2 Alcatel CTI Technology 4-2 4.3 Advanced TCA 4-3 4.4 Alcatel Major Research And Development Centers 4-3 4.5 Open Standards 4-4
4.5.1 Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) 4-4 4.5.2 IBM Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) 4-6 4.5.3 SOA Business Challenge IT Imperative 4-6 4.5.4 Service-Oriented Architecture And Relevant Standards 4-7 4.5.5 XML 4-9 4.5.6 Integration Engines Leverage XML Processing 4-9 4.5.7 XML Standards 4-11 4.5.8 XML Role In Application Topology 4-12 4.5.9 XML Meets The Integration Challenge 4-13 4.5.10 XML Standard Communication Language 4-13 4.5.11 Web Services Protocols 4-13
4.6 IP Within CDMA 4-14 4.7 Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) Of A Mobile Phone 4-16
4.7.1 Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) Standards 4-17 4.7.2 Mobile Phones Meet Requirements For Exposure - To Radio Waves 4-18
4.8 Bluetooth 4-19 4.9 GPRS 4-20 4.10 EGPRS (EDGE) 4-21
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5.1.5 Alcatel-To-End Communications Solutions 5-9 5.1.6 Alcatel VND Division 5-9 5.1.7 Alcatel Net Sales Third Quarter 2005 5-10
5.1.8 Alcatel Fixed Communications Third Quarter 2005 Revenues 5-13 5.1.9 Alcatel Mobile Communications Third Quarter 2005 Revenues 5-14 5.1.10 Alcatel Private Communications Third Quarter 2005 Revenues 5-15
5.1.11 ·Alcatel Geographical distribution of sales: 5-16 5.1.12 Alcatel / BT 5-16 5.1.13 Alcatel Customers 5-17 5.1.14 Alcatel Net Sales 2003 5-18 5.1.15 Alcatel Third Quarter 2004 Revenue 5-19 5.1.16 Alcatel Fixed Communications 5-22 5.1.17 Alcatel Mobile Communications 5-23 5.1.18 Alcatel Private Communications 5-24 5.1.19 Alcatel Third Quarter 2004 Regional Revenue 5-25 5.1.20 Third Quarter 2003 Regional Revenue 5-26
5.1.21 Alcatel Participation In Communications Network Equipment Markets 5-28
5.1.22 Alcatel Metro DWDM 5-29 5.1.23 Alcatel and Optics 5-32 5.1.24 Alcatel Genesys Telecommunications 5-34 5.1.25 Alcatel / Genesys 5-35
List of Tables and Figures Table ES-1 Customization Of Telecommunications Infrastructure Equipment Figure ES-2 Index Sales of Top Ten Telecommunication Companies 2001-2004 Figure ES-32 Top Ten Telecommunication Market Forecasts, 2005-2011 Table 1-1 1-11 Network Systems Functions Table 1-2 1-13 Telecommunications Market Shifts Table 1-3 1-15 Change In Telecommunications Equipment Markets Table 1-4 1-16 Response To Change In Telecommunications Equipment Markets Table 1-5 1-18 Service Provider Build-Out Of The Next Generation 3G Systems Table 1-6 1-19 Factors Impacting Build-Out Of 3G Wireless Infrastructure Table 1-7 1-20 Factors Impacting Implementation Of 3G Wireless Table 1-8 1-24 Wireless IP Network Benefits Table 1-9 1-27 Key Benefits Of Multimedia Solutions Table 1-10 1-30 Strategies To Improve Telecommunication Equipment Company Performance
WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, INC. LEXINGTON, MA www.wintergreenresearch.com Top Ten Telecommunication Providers As Market Makers Table 1-12 1-36 Top Ten Telecommunications Equipment Provider Market Strategies Table 1-13 1-37 Top Ten Telecommunications Equipment - Provider Strategies To Adapt To Changing Markets Table 1-14 1-40 Marketing Globally Table 2-1 2-3 Customization Of Telecommunications Infrastructure Equipment Figure 2-2 2-5 Top 10 Telecommunications Provider Shipments, 2000-2004 Table 2-3 2-6 Top Ten Communications Equipment Provider Shipments and Services, 2000-2004 Figure 2-4 2-7 Indexed Sales of Leading Telecommunications Equipment Suppliers, 1993-2004 Figure 2-5 2-9 Indexed Sales of Selected Leading Telecommunications Equipment Suppliers, 2000-2004 Table 2-6 2-10 Selected communications Company shipments, 1993-2004 Figure 2-7 2-11 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Company Market Segments, Shipments, Dollars, 2004 Figure 2-8 2-12 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Wireless Equipment Company Market Segments, 2004 Figure 2-9 2-13 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Segments, 2004 Figure 2-10 2-14 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Company Service Provider Core Infrastructure, Access, and Transmission Shipments, Dollars, 2004 Table 2-11 2-15 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Wireless Handsets, Wireless Infrastructure, Wireline, and Enterprise Telecommunications Shipment Forecast By Segment, Dollars, 2005-2010 Figure 2-12 2-16 Worldwide Top Ten Telecommunications and Communications Equipment Market Forecasts, Shipments, Dollars, 2005-2010 Table 2-13 2-17 Worldwide Telecommunications and Communications Wireless Handsets, Wireless Infrastructure, Wireline,
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