Top Banner
C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15 The rather mysterious force of 70,000 fighters talked about by David Cameron as "troops on the ground" morphs before our eyes into a vulnerable but essential group to be preserved. As part of making the case for a robust diplomatic process, the prime minister noted that as many as 70,000 fighters who did not belong to extremist groups were still committed to fighting President Bashar al-Assad. The figure has raised eyebrows: there was no clarity offered as to who these fighters are, where they are fighting, and what sort of relationships these moderate groups have to al-Qaeda, and indeed IS. Boris Johnson has disputed David Cameron’s contentious claim that 70,000 moderate Syrian fighters are ready to seize Isis-held territory following air strikes. The Mayor of London said the figure “may be exaggerated” and was likely to include jihadists “who are not ideologically very different from al-Qaeda”. The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 19 05/07/2022
19

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

Apr 14, 2017

Download

Documents

Cees De Waart
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

The rather mysterious force of 70,000 fighters talked about by David Cameron as "troops on the ground" morphs before our eyes into a vulnerable but essential group to be preserved.

As part of making the case for a robust diplomatic process, the prime minister noted that as many as 70,000 fighters who did not belong to extremist groups were still committed to fighting President Bashar al-Assad. The figure has raised eyebrows: there was no clarity offered as to who these fighters are, where they are fighting, and what sort of relationships these moderate groups have to al-Qaeda, and indeed IS.

Boris Johnson has disputed David Cameron’s contentious claim that 70,000 moderate Syrian fighters are ready to seize Isis-held territory following air strikes.  The Mayor of London said the figure “may be exaggerated” and was likely to include jihadists “who are not ideologically very different from al-Qaeda”. 

Dec 01, There are reasons to question just how much difference British air strikes will make and on the broader strategy in Syria. But, on this occasion, the Prime Minister’s numbers do add up when it comes to the possibility of forming an anti-Isis force. There are, indeed, 70,000 rebels in Syria who do not belong to Isis and who have been backed, in the course of the civil war, by the West and its Arab allies. Many of them already have a track record of fighting Isis.I am not including in that figure Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, which has, in the past, received substantial funding from sources in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, although it too has also fought against Isis. I am also excluding Jaysh al-Muhajirin al-Ansar, a Caucasian group whose threat of bringing back jihad to Russia was one of the reasons given by

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 2: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Vladimir Putin to justify military action in Syria, because of their closeness to Isis.The remaining groups have the current backing of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. Some have been vetted, trained and armed by the Americans, some have been supplied with “non-lethal” aid such as body armour, SUVs and communications equipment by Britain and France. Just how moderate are they? Those of us who have spent some time with the rebels in Syria have seen how the definition of moderation has changed over the blood-soaked years. In the summer of 2012, during fighting in Aleppo, there were indeed large numbers of moderate Muslim opposition fighters. Isis did not exist at the time, al-Nusra was a small and nasty band which fled when regime tanks made a foray into the front line at Salaheddine.

Western help would have buttressed the moderates and may even have allowed them to seize Syria’s largest city. But that did not come. Al-Nusra grew, Isis was born. Among the rebel militias fighting Isis now, the Kurds are getting the most publicity, but there are also highly effective Arab groups. Some of them, such as Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam, are conservative Islamists, although moderate in comparison with Isis. Saudi Arabia intends to invite them to a conference on Syria next month. 

Dec 09, Rebel fighters have agreed a ceasefire and will leave Homs to President Bashar al-Assad's tender mercies.

The withdrawal of the last remaining rebels from al-Wair is a blow to the opposition because it gives the government complete control over what was once the centre of the uprising against the president.

Leading opposition politicians and rebels are for the first time meeting in an attempt to agree a common position ahead of peace talks with the government, which world powers want to start in Vienna next month.

Yet in just a few weeks' time - by the New Year at the latest - President Assad is meant to be talking peace with some of the leaders who have suffered this reverse. It doesn't seem very likely - not with Russian President Vladimir Putin behind him.For its part, the fractured and disparate opposition wants President Assad not across the table but at least out of power and, better still, dead. Like some sick version of a knockout league, the opposition is arguing, and in some cases fighting, among themselves about who should play-off against President Assad.

There is a conference in Saudi Arabia designed to sort this out. But some significant players are absent.

The Kurds aren't there, despite being, by most accounts, the most effective and efficient fighting force.

The jihadists aren't welcome, of course. The Western priority is to crush so-called Islamic State (IS) before there can be serious progress towards peace. This determination is most often justified by the threat IS poses to Europe and the US.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 2 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 3: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

But the British government argues it also directly relates to keeping alive a moderate opposition.

The rather mysterious force of 70,000 fighters talked about by David Cameron as "troops on the ground" morphs before our eyes into a vulnerable but essential group to be preserved.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon told the committee the 70,000 "are fighting Assad, and one of the reasons for us getting more involved in tacking Isil [a longer acronym for Islamic State] in Syria is so that they are not being squeezed by both sides".

The deputy chief of the defence staff, Lt Gen Gordon Messenger, helpfully spelt out the need to "preserve them as part of a future political process". He added: "Nor are we saying they are ready to advance to Raqqa - but we are saying they are a really important group to preserve. "Because we see them as being a vital part of the political process, critical to preserve to prevent Syria becoming a choice between Assad or Isil, so they are a very important part of the dynamic."

The West's hopes for an alternative Syria seem based on crossed fingers rather than serious analysis.

Moderates v hardliners In the past week, a number of analysts have taken up the challenge to identify these rebels. What does the British government say? Officials say the source for the 70,000 figure is the UK's Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), drawing on assessments by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK intelligence agencies and open sources.The figure, the officials add, refers to Syrian rebels who fulfil two basic criteria:

They renounce terrorism, ie they are not members of the jihadist groups Islamic State or al-QaedaThey are "committed to a pluralistic Syria", ie one in which minorities like Christians and Alawite Muslims would be equal citizens

Frank Gardner: Is PM right about the Syrian 'moderates'? Charles Lister of the Brookings Institute puts the number of fighters in strategically influential groups at around 65,000 - with 10,000 fighters in smaller groups. They are spread over six identifiable fronts, stretching along a fairly narrow strip of territory from the northern city of Aleppo, down through the capital Damascus and into the southern borderlands with Jordan.

But while it may be possible to identify 65,000-75,000 personnel in brigades that fight both Assad and IS, the problem is that these groups of fighters, particularly in the north of the country, are not powerful enough to take on al-Qaeda or IS by

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 3 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 4: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

themselves, or in many cases break their current alliances/ceasefires with them.

For example, Jaysh al-Fatah - a coalition of seven different groups operating around the northern cities of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama - is comprised of Salafist jihadists from the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front, and the equally unpalatable Ahrar al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa. Yet two other groupings in the alliance, Ajnad al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham, display little such sentiments. The problem is that numerically within Jaysh al-Fatah the more moderate groups do not stand a chance against the hardliners.

Piecemeal opposition In eastern Damascus and the southern part of the country, the picture is clearer.

Militias with Jordanian and Saudi backing have fared well against Mr Assad's forces, and have been ruthless whenever they have come into contact with IS.

So-called moderate rebels have struggled to counter al-Qaeda's affiliate, al-Nusra FrontIn July, Jaysh al-Islam released a video of its fighters shooting dead rivals from IS in a style that mimicked those produced by the jihadist group to announce the killing of regime soldiers and Western hostages. Although hardly a palatable group in and of itself, Jaysh al-Islam does at least represent Syrians that live in that area, and is explicitly not jihadist.

But it is important to note that these rebels do not form a cohesive military force, able to simultaneously launch co-ordinated attacks in the manner of a standing army.

Rather, they form the backbone of piecemeal opposition, looking to establish social and political control in various different guises, and co-ordinating across a number of fronts in which they vary dramatically in terms of operational fighting strength.Ignoring the Kurds Regardless of the lack of clarity, the 70,000 figure does not include the Kurds.Their Popular Protection Units (YPG) form part of a larger umbrella movement known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is engaged in battle with IS across a 900km (560-mile) frontline in areas where Kurds are largely the majority ethnic population.

The SDF generally operates in a tense ceasefire with the Assad regime and has even been accused of being in open alliance with it, and as a result the British

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 4 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 5: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

government does not include the YPG or the SDF - which may have as many as 40-50,000 troops - in its estimate.

The British government's figures do not include Kurdish fighters from the YPG But let's be honest - Western airpower and reconnaissance have been aiding the

Kurdish forces for more than a year, and they are part of the West's anti-IS strategy in Syria, whether they fight Assad or not. It is strange to think that the forces the West backs most keenly are ignored when a strategy for bombing in Syria and bringing it to a political solution is outlined.

So, counting the number of "allies" that the West considers vital to its dual strategy of defeating IS and pushing Mr Assad to the negotiating table makes the magical 70,000 number actually more like 100-120,000. It should also refer to areas of the country already under relatively stable control, rather than the scattered assortment of opposition militias that operate in the west and south.Lack of clarity was always going to be a problem in Syria, but the government has oversold the strength of potential allies, whilst simultaneously underselling the strength of others. Such is Syria, where one man's ally is another's mortal enemy, leading to a strategy in which the best solution is to back the groups we dislike the least.Michael Stephens is the Research Fellow for Middle East Studies and Head of Rusi Qatar.

Since the beginning of the Russian air campaign in Syria, the number of Iranian victims of the conflict has climbed steeply. Iranian media use the unofficial title of “Defender of the holy grave” to designate the Iranian and Afghan paramilitary fighting alongside the Syrian army and the Lebanese Hezbollah. They stress the threat posed to Shiite holy sites in the area, particularly around Damascus. Iran has been the staunchest defender of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Contrary to the rhetoric, it seems that the motivation goes far beyond religion. Instead the explanation lies in the geopolitical situation in the region. During the

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 5 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 6: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

eight-year war between Iran and Iraq, Syria Hafiz Al-Assad, was the only ally of the Tehran in the Arab world. A US official said last week that up to 2,000 Iranians or Iranian-backed fighters took part in an offensive against rebel groups, in a coordinated effort with Russia and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad . In addition, Syria has never concluded a peace agreement with Israel, in contrast to Egypt and Jordan. Consequently, the Syrian state, together with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraq, were considered as components of what is called by Tehran as the “Axis of Resistance” (against Israel). The leaders of the Islamic Republic know that defeat in Syria, would be a hammer blow for the country’s influence against the Arab oil monarchies and Israel. Since the second year of the civil war in Syria, Iran has been developing its military capacity in the country. Faced with domestic and international criticism of its involvement, Tehran preferred to employ Afghan citizens resident in Iran. Brigade Fatemiuns, named after the daughter of the prophet of Islam, recruits hundreds of Afghan immigrants in Iran, then trains and deploys them to Syria. It is said that the fighters earn $500 a month and, in addition, gain permanent residence status in Iran.

Russia has warned of the risk of a "proxy war" in the Middle East after the US said it would send special forces to Syria.Oct 31 RT. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this increased the need for co-operation between the US and Russia. US officials said "fewer than 50" troops would "train, advise and assist" vetted opposition forces in fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS). It will be the first time that US troops operate openly in Syria. Mr Lavrov said the US had decided on its move "unilaterally and without any reference to the Syrian leadership".He added: "I am convinced that neither the United States nor Russia of course want any kind of slide into a so-called proxy war. But to me it is obvious that this situation makes the task of co-operation between the militaries even more relevant."He was speaking after talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura in Vienna. "Our role fundamentally and the strategy is to enable local forces but does that put US forces in harm's way? It does, no question about it," Defence Secretary Ash Carter later told reporters. He did not rule out further deployments of special forces to the region, if the initial mission was deemed a success. For more than a year, US-led coalition forces have been carrying out air strikes against IS, which controls a large part of northern Syria and parts of neighbouring Iraq.The US recently abandoned its Syria rebel training effort, opting to provide equipment and arms directly to rebel leaders instead. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said President Obama wanted to provide additional support for Syrian rebel fighters who had been having success on the battlefield."There are now moderate opposition forces that are 45 miles (72km) outside [IS stronghold] Raqqa," he said. "The president is prepared to intensify the elements that have shown promise." He added: "This is an intensification of a strategy he discussed a year ago." The numbers are small, nonetheless the US decision represents a notable shift in US policy. Their mission will be "to help co-ordinate local ground forces and coalition efforts" against IS in northern Syria. In all likelihood they may fight alongside Kurdish forces who have been the most effective of Washington's local allies. "Co-ordination" could well mean forward air controllers - teams trained in the skills of linking up tactical air power with troops on the ground, designating targets and calling in strikes. The fact that the US now has specialised A-10 ground attack aircraft reasonably close by at the Turkish air base of Incirlik may also be significant. This is a small step intended not least to reassure Washington's unsettled allies in the region. The drift in US policy has become even more apparent since Russia's muscular intervention from the air. But to be convincing, the US

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 6 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 7: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

may need to do a good deal more and that seems to be at variance with President Obama's basic instincts. This week's talks in Vienna involved Iran for the first time. The summit sought to close the gap between the US and its allies, who support the rebels, and the key foreign allies of the Syrian government, Russia and Iran. World leaders say progress was made in the "historic" talks to resolve Syria's civil war, but they continue to differ on the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.

These maps show how ethnic cleansing has become a weapon in Syria's civil warByline http://www.businessinsider.com/these-maps-show-how-ethnic-cleansing-has-become-a-weapon-in-syrias-civil-war-2015-12?IR=T

Fabrice Balanche, The Washington Institute For Near East PolicyDec. 8, 2015, Between refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs),

more than half of the Syrian population has left their homes since the war began in 2011. To understand why this has happened and what can be done to reverse it, one must examine the country's demographics in detail.

A population shortfall Syria currently has around 16 million residents — a far cry from the 2010 UN projection that the population would reach 22.6 million by the end of 2015. The birth deficit and excess mortality (violent and natural) have reduced the natural population growth by half since 2011. Even if refugees are added to the current population figure, the total would be only 21.3 million, or 1.3 million less than the prewar projection.The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has registered 4.2 million Syrians thus far, but that figure undervalues the actual number of refugees by at least 20%. Some refugees refuse to register for fear of being arrested and taken back to Syria (as is happening in Lebanon), while many wealthy refugees do not see the point of registering. So a more realistic estimate of total refugees is 5.3 million.That number is expected to increase sharply.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 7 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 8: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

In Aleppo province alone, escalating hostilities have spurred another 200,000 people to leave their homes in the past two months. The Russian offensive and the lack of short-term hope for peace have convinced many living in relatively calm areas to leave as well, and more may follow suit if the recent German-led plan to welcome more refugees is implemented.

Areas of control Although it is difficult to give an exact number for IDPs, the available

data suggests that 6.5 million Syrians have fled violent areas for safer parts of the country. This includes about 2 million who have fled to the current government-controlled zone from areas controlled by other factions, as well as millions of others who fled one regime-controlled area for another due to intense fighting.The areas held by rebels (the northwest, the south, and other small pockets such as Ghouta) have lost the most people because they are the least secure — Russian and regime airstrikes impede normal life there, and the presence of numerous different rebel factions creates persistent insecurity. The area held by the self-styled Islamic State (IS) seems safer, in part because it has a central authority.Although religious minorities and secular Sunnis fled Raqqa and Deir al-Zour, they were replaced by foreign jihadists and Syrians displaced from Aleppo. In general, people tend to

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 8 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 9: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

seek refuge where they have relatives, and where there is no fighting; the identity of the faction that controls the area does not necessarily matter to them as much.The Kurdish area attracts displaced Kurds but few Arabs — no surprise given that the faction in control, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), aims to make the area ethnically homogeneous.Mainstream media reports often highlight the fact that the Syrian army controls less than 17% of the country, and IS over 50%. Yet these seemingly shocking figures do not factor in Syria's geography — namely that 47% of the country is sparsely inhabited steppes. Of course, extending control over some of the steppes may hold strategic interest for IS; Palmyra is a traffic hub with important gas and oil resources, for example, and it borders Iraq and Jordan. In any case, the Assad regime controls the largest share of Syria's residential areas, and also the most populated area.Around 10.1 million inhabitants live in the government zone, or 63% of the total resident population. The areas controlled by the other three main factions (Kurds, IS, and rebels) are roughly equal, with about 2 million each. In short, the regime has gone from controlling about 20 million Syrians prewar to about 10 million now. 

Local ethnic cleansing The large-scale population movements have not been a simple byproduct of war. Rather, they represent conscious strategies of ethnic cleansing by each faction.To be sure, the ethno-sectarian composition of the country as a whole has not changed much, despite the departure of disproportionately Christian and Sunni Arab refugees. Christians have traditionally been scattered throughout the country and do not have their own area of refuge like the Alawites and Druze, spurring many of them to flee abroad.As for Sunni Arabs, because the insurgency took root in their ranks, they have been the first target of regime repression and airstrikes (though some Sunni clans support Bashar al-Assad and have remained safe in the government zone). Overall, Syria's current population is 22% religious minorities, 16% Kurds, and 61% Sunni Arabs — in other words, not that different from the prewar composition.These figures could change in the coming months, of course, particularly if the PYD creates a continuous zone of Kurdish control along the border with Turkey by seizing territories between Azaz and Jarabulus.Any such move to connect the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin with the rest of the PYD's territory in the northeast (known as Rojava) could spur hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs to flee. Meanwhile, expanded efforts to eliminate IS will likely produce an internal Sunni war between tribes supporting the terrorist group and other factions, creating further refugee flows.  For now, Syria's overall population figures hide the rampant ethnic separation already occurring within territories controlled by each faction.Acutely aware that its Alawite base is a shrinking minority, the regime has created a zone of control with 41% religious minorities, compared to the national figure of 22%. The army consistently prioritizes asserting its grip over Christian, Alawite, Druze, Ismaili, and Shiite localities. In contrast, rebel victories often spur local religious and ethnic minorities to depart. Only the Druze area of Jabal al-Summaq in northwestern Idlib province remains in the rebel zone, enjoying special Saudi protection in connection with Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt — it is the fragile exception that proves the rule. Rebel groups dominate a Sunni Arab territory; the main minority there is Sunni Turkmen, which is probably the most anti-Assad group.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 9 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 10: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Similarly, all religious minorities tend to flee IS-held areas. Some Kurds have remained behind; IS does not seem to distinguish them from local Sunni Arabs, probably because they are Sunni believers as well. That said, many secular Kurds have fled to PYD territory.In the Kurdish zone of Rojava, Arabs must agree to live as minorities — as the Kurds did during centuries under Arab rule — or leave. This reversal of power is intolerable for many Sunni Arabs accustomed to dominating the northeast, leading some to support IS.The fact that the regime-controlled zone is the most diverse does not mean that Assad is more benevolent than the rebels, Kurds, or IS. Rather, it reflects his political strategy.

He knows he must expel millions of Sunni Arabs to make the balance of power more favorable to minorities who support him. He also needs to divide the Sunnis by redistributing land and housing that belonged to refugees, making loyalist Sunnis who remain behind even more beholden to him and pitting them against any who decide to return.In sum, the Syrian conflict is a sectarian war, and ethnic cleansing is an integral part of the strategy used by various actors, even if they claim otherwise.

What ethnic cleansing means for Syria's future Although many refugees and IDPs will

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 10 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 11: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

want to return home once peace is established, they will be unable to do so because of their ethnicity and/or political affiliation. Resettling displaced people will become a strategic question for each player. Their efforts at local ethnic cleansing are already making Syria's de facto partition more and more irremediable. Sectarian diversity is disappearing in many areas of the country, and this process of regional homogenization is drawing internal borders. Yet formal partition is not necessarily a good solution. It could generate new conflicts, as seen when Sudan split and then the new country of South Sudan dissolved into civil war.Therefore, the international community may need to work toward a Syrian agreement that lies somewhere between the Taif Accord, which imposed a kind of unity on Lebanon, and the Dayton Agreement, which imposed a difficult partition on Bosnia under intense foreign supervision. Syria's various communities will accept living in a new, united Syrian Republic, but not the Syrian Arab Republic as it existed prewar. A federal system would be the best political regime because the previous centralization cannot be reestablished, whatever the ruling group. Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute.

Regards Cees ***

Op-Ed: There is no "radical Islam" and there is also no "moderate Islam"The two expressions were coined by those who think that the real Islam is the moderate one and that the radicals hijacked it.Beginning more or less with 9/11, the expression "radical Islam" became the accepted way for the media, politicians and public to define the religious and ideological foundations of Islam-based violence when referring to what the world calls "terror."  This expression was meant to be contrasted with "moderate Islam" which presents Muslims as ordinary people who wish to live in peace with all of mankind - Christians, Jews, Buddhists, unbelievers and the rest of us. The world created the image of two Islams, one radical and impossible to live with, and one moderate and "just like us."

This differentiation between "radical" and "moderate" Islam is what gave rise to the claim that Islam had been "hijacked" by the radicals, implying that the real and original Islam is the moderate version, not the false, radical one.

This is what allows today's Europe to relate positively to the wave of mostly-Muslim illegal immigrants washing up on its shores – they represent "moderate Islam" and all they want is to live in peace and harmony with their European neighbors.

Permit me to raise some doubts concerning the psychological mindset that claims the existence of two types of Islam. In order to do this, let us clarify an important point: Islam is a text-based framework of ideas and behaviors, covering religion, culture, strictures, politics, law and economics. It is an all-embracing way of life.

The most basic text is the Qu'ran, followed by the Hadith (oral tradition) and the Sira – biography – of Muhammad. The Sharia, Muslim  law, is a system of binding laws and injunctions that Muslims are obliged to obey.

There are no two Islams, no moderate one and no radical one, there is just one Qu'ran that includes everything: verses on Jihad and all out war against unbelievers along with verses that speak of recognizing the "other" and living beside him.

There are no two types of hadith, one radical and the other moderate; there is just one body of hadith that includes everything, both violent and moderate ideas.Muhammad does not have a moderate biography and a radical one; there is only one life

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 11 of 12 03/05/2023

Page 12: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-15

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

story of the prophet of Islam and it has stories that express a radical, violent approach and others presenting a moderate one.

There is also just one Sharia that includes everything, from the radical cutting off of a thief's hands to the unquestionably moderate admonition to care for the poor and indigent.That being the case, there is no "moderate Islam" and no "radical Islam", just one Islam that incorporates both terms, ranging from extreme radicalism to extreme moderation. In practice, we see people with different cultures, some of them extremists and some moderates, all finding verses, ideas, precedents and laws that support their views on life and society in the same Qu'ran, Hadith, Sira and Sharia. The radical Muslim chooses to quote sources that support his extremist approach, while the moderate Muslim finds sources to buttress his moderate approach.Those two Muslims, the most extreme and the most moderate, are "kosher", because they both rely on legitimate Islamic sources, and neither can claim that the other "hijacked" Islam. All the Muslims in the world, all one and a half billion of them, men, women and children, are to be found somewhere on the moderate-extremist continuum.  They may live alone or as part of families, tribes, organizations and societies. 

Islamic State is a state established and continuing its operations with the participation and cooperation of a large body of Muslims and converts to Islam who are on the extremist tip of the continuum.  

Al Qaeda is right there next to them, as are Hamas, Hezbollah and all the other terrorist organizations. On the other end of the continuum, the moderate one, are the members of the "Muslims facing   Tomorrow " organization, a totally moderate group of Muslims living in Toronto, Canada.Along the scale connecting the endpoints of the continuum, one can find all the other Muslims in the world, each one on a point of his choosing, somewhere between radicalism and moderation. His place on the continuum is a dynamic, not a static one, and a once moderate Muslim can undergo a process of radicalization, while another, who was an extreme radical can change his views and become more moderate. Life has a way of moving people along the continuum, making it harder to predict the future of an individual or group.Moderate Muslim migrants live in harmony with the foreign societies to which they have migrated. They blend in nicely, work for a living, are law abiding and contribute to the economy and society that absorbs them. More radical Muslims who migrate to new societies tend to live in the enclaves that preserve their culture and way of life, only partially blending into society and the work force and constantly attempting to influence and change for their own ends the society that let them in. If they are on the violent side of the continuum, that violence will be turned on the society that accepted them - a fact that is most evident in today's Europe.Written for Arutz Sheva, translated from Hebrew by Rochel Sylvetsky, Arutz Sheva Op-ed Editor.    Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar-Ilan University. He served in IDF Military Intelligence for 25 years, specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. Thoroughly familiar with Arab media in real time, he is frequently interviewed on the various news programs in Israel.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 12 of 12 03/05/2023