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Inside:
Pressing Issues:
Matters at hand
Politics: Market
movement as
elections inch
closer
Economy Watch:
Dark clouds or
silver linings?
Fixed Income:
Short Span; Big
Swings
Equity: A tale of
twin peaks 2008-
2012
Commodities:Grit
and Glitter
Technical Analysis:
Bull Run to
Continue
The Path Ahead:
Outlook & Optimal
Asset Allocation
Economic & Market Outlook 2012-2013
Beyond theRhetoric
Beacon of light for investors of Al MeezanInvestments
November 2012
UAN: 111-633-926(111-MEEZAN) www.almeezangroup.com
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1 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Pressing Issues: Matters at Hand
Politics:The upcoming general elections are going to play a major role and set the
market dynamics with a positive reaction expected if there is any change in the
current set up and the new government manages to bring improvement to the
precarious law and order situation. With the presence of an active judiciary and
media, there are many wildcards that could shape the future direction of thenation.
Economy: The slowdown in global economic growth has had a significant effect on
Pakistans economy. However, inflationary pressures remain subdued and
Pakistans economy fared well by posting a modest GDP growth of 4.0% in fiscal
year 2012. Key triggers for the future include; IMF repayments which may exert
pressure on foreign reserves, but on the brighter side are the expected proceeds of
PTCL privatization, 3G license auction and flows from Coalition Support Fund (CSF).
Equity: Pakistans market remained one of the best performing market in the
region as depicted by the phenomenal returns of 40% witnessed in the ten months
of current calendar year (2012). Presently at historic highs and marching towardspsychological levels of 16,500 and 17,000 points, for KSE 100 index, would fortune
favor the bold or is this a repeat of the peak reached in 2008?
Fixed Income: Despite high government borrowing, inflation took a downward
route in fiscal year 2012 prompting SBP to slash the discount rate by 400 bps in
fourteen months time starting July 2011.
Commodities: Being a net importer of oil, Pakistan faces rising import costs, and
widening trade deficit when oil prices go up. On the other hand, rising prices of
precious metals, including gold and silver provide investors an opportunity to
diversify and make potential gains on such investments, but at what risks?
Technicals: Going forward the KSE100 is likely to remain buoyant and continue its
move up north till it hits 18,200 in next 8 12 months. In the short term, expect
KSE100 to undergo minor consolidation while a pullback breaching 20 Day
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is likely to find support somewhere around
15,500 15,800. The journey to our target of 18,200 is likely to be a bumpy ride
amidst minor hiccups.
The Path Ahead: Going forward we expect the stock market to continue its
phenomenal performance with further support coming in if economic indicators
stabilize. On the flip side, we expect inflation to inch upwards in the second half of
the fiscal year (but remain in comfortable zone). Though hefty IMF repayments are
due, but if budgeted inflows materialize these concerns will be out at bay.
s
Towards a better tomorrow
Commitment is the cornerstone of Al Meezan
and we recognize the value of commitment to
our investors in providing value added Shariah
compliant investment solutions.
In celebrating our diversity, we recognize the
different needs of our investors based on
individual principles and values in lieu of social
and economic aspirations. Over several years,
we at Al Meezan have remained cognizant of
the evolving needs of our clients and
consistently focus on delivering product
offerings that comprehensively andcompetitively address all our clients needs.
Going forward, we commit to remain focused
at continuing to deliver high-quality Shariah-
compliant investment avenues to our valued
investors for a better tomorrow, in this world
and in the Hereafter!
Contributors:
Abdul Basit Shah; Research & Product Development
Afifa Jeelani; Research Analyst
Ahmed Hasan, CFA; Portfolio Manager
Aisha Kudiya; Research & Product Development
Gohar Rasool; Portfolio Manager
Muhammad Asad; Chief Investment Officer
Sanam Ali Zaib, CFA; Head of Research
Syed Taimur Hasan; Product Development
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2 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Politics: Market Movements as Elections Inch Closer
For the first time in the history of Pakistan, a democratically elected government will be completing its five year tenure, though in the
midst of numerous upheavals. As the term of present government completes, the country is preparing for the next general elections
which are expected to be scheduled in the first half of 2013. No time frame has been given in this regard but full fledge preparation is
underway as PML-N and PTI emerge as strong contenders and the current PPP government is working with its key allies (MQM, ANP,
PML-Q) to secure another term. No matter which political force emerges as a winner, we are aware that this will serve as a major trigger
for the overall economy and the markets.
Although some remarkable reforms (CGT reforms) were introduced by the present government that boosted the stock market, however
the economy did not do wonders. Experience of the majority has been quite rough and we expect that people will be looking forward to
an overall change in the set up. But a point of concern stems from the fact that post elections, the new government will have to put in
order the chaos created by the current government and bring in stability from the law and order perspective.
Figure 1: The graph above shows the impact on KSE-100 index and volumes of key political & economic triggers
(Source: Optimus Research)
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3 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Economy Watch: Dark Clouds or Silver Linings?
Structural Inefficiencies Hamper GDP Growth
Despite the governments projection of GDP growth taking a leap to 4.2% in fiscal year 2012 from 3.50% in fiscal year 2011, GDP
grew by a benign 4% due to structural inefficiencies. With general elections due early next year, we do not expect the trend to
take a major reversal and anticipate the GDP growth to hover in a similar range of 3.7% - 4.0%. We get more affirmative on our
stance as foreign direct investment is expected to remain on the lower end of spectrum. Along with an uncertain political
scenario and energy shortages that continue to plague the performance of numerous industries, private sector credit off-take is
also on a declining trend.
Remittances to the Rescue; Dampened Reserves & Current Account
For fiscal year 2012, despite the government projection of a Current Account Deficit (CAD) of US$1.4bn (0.6% of GDP), the CAD
actually clocked in at US$4.5 billion (2% of GDP), with the sole respite coming in from blossoming remittances which amounted
to US$13 billion. Thankfully, fiscal year 2013 started on a positive note with Pakistan-US relationship improving and Coalition
Support Fund (CSF) materializing as a result of which Pakistan received US$1.2 billion which provided support to the current
account.
IMF Repayments and Exchange Rate Performance
Digging deeper into the past, Pakistan entered in a standby agreement with IMF in 2009, where the donor provided loan
worth US$11.3 billion spreading over a period of three years. As the program ended prematurely, Pakistan now has to make
hefty re-payments which are now exerting pressure on the forex reserves. In fiscal year 2013, the country needs to make IMF
repayments to the tune of US$2.92 billion, which will be a burden on the already weakening forex reserves as shown in Table 1
below. And with uncertainty regarding materialization of budgeted inflows, we expect the forex reserves to hit a bottom low.
We expect to witness Pakistans re-entry into the IMF program as no other donor is willing to lend to Pakistan in the absence of
Letter of Comfort from IMF. Midst of all these concerns is the depreciating Pak Rupee against US dollar which is causing
nervousness across the country. Pak Rupee witnessed depreciation of 9.55% in last one year. While diagnosing the average
depreciation for three, five and ten years, we see the Pakistani rupee plunging down by 5.72%, 9.36% and 8.90% respectively as
shown in Table 2 below.
Positivity Stemming from Low Inflation & Interest Rates
In an absolute abysmal performance of the economy, declining inflation re-kindled hopes as it took the downward route and
averaged at 11.10% for fiscal year 2012. Lower inflation allowed SBP to slash the discount rate by 200 bps in fiscal year 2012.
With the onset of fiscal year 2013, and average inflation for the first quarter fiscal year 2013 clocking in at 9.15%, SBP again
reduced the discount rate further by 200 bps, taking the total cut to 400 bps in a mere fourteen months time. Amid criticism of
the cuts being unsustainable, the SBP has time and again emphasized that the recent monetary easing is done with the view of
helping private sector credit off take to take an upward route. This will hopefully be reflected in efficient utilization of idle
capacity.
Table 1 - IMF Repayments
IMF Repayments in US$ Mn for the next 3- Years1HFY13 2HFY13 1HFY14 2HFY14 1HFY15 2HFY15
1,208 1,707 2,012 1,245 876 408
Table 2- Average PKR value depreciation
Average PKR Depreciation1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
9.55% 5.72% 9.36% 8.90%
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4 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Exports to the Rescue
Analyzing the trade scenario of the country, crude oil constitutes bulk of the imports while exports are majorly skewed towards
textile. Unfortunately, the prevalent gas crisis looming the country has badly affected the textile industry which is eventually
reflected in lackluster exports. At the same time, oil prices pose an upside risk owing to instability in the Middle East and the
global concerns on Iran. Pakistans import outlook will remain uncertain, owing to the volatility of commodity prices stemming
from the recent induction of Quantitative Easing- III under which additional US$ 40 billion/month will be printed indefinitely.
Year of Turmoil vs. Year of Recovery
In Table 3 given below, we have undertaken a comparison between the economic situations witnessed in fiscal year 2008 vs.
fiscal year 2012. As evident, improvement has been witnessed on several fronts, significantly the growth in tax collection,
blooming remittances and receding inflation. But at the same time positivity is dampened with reserves depleting and
depreciating Pak Rupee, resultantly making imports expensive and putting the burden on the trade deficit.
*Discount rate which went to 14% post fiscal year 2008 crisis was slashed twice (50 bps in July 2011 & 150bps in October 2011) bringing it down
to 12%. In fiscal year 2013, discount rate was further slashed by 150 bps in August 2012 and again by 50 bps in October 2012 bringing it down to
10%.
Table 3-Economic Indicators
FY2008- A Year of
Economic Turmoil
FY2012- Path to
Recovery
FY2013 Future Outlook -
Hopes PinnedComments
GDP 3.70% 4.00% PositiveEconomy remains in low growth envelope fo
structural reasons
Inflation 12.00% 11.10% PositiveAlthough CPI has come down, core inflation has
remained high.
Discount Rate 12.00% 12.00%* PositiveMonetary easing by 400bps in last fourteen
months
Tax Collection (Rs. Mn) 1,119,956 1,833,100 Positive Growth has been witnessed in the total tax
collection. Despite this Tax to GDP ratio of 9.1%
still remains one of the lowest in regionTax Collection as a % of GDP 9.30% 10% Positive
Current Account (US$ Bn) (14,157) (4,423) Positive Positive remittances inflow containing CAD
Remittances (US$ Mn) 6,451 13,032 Positive High remittances, becoming a permanent feature
Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP 7.60% 8.80% NegativeHigh fiscal deficit remains the main cause o
concern
Forex Reserves (US$ Bn) 11,399 15,236 NegativeIMF repayments forcing external accoun
pressures
PKR/US$ Parity 79.19 94.50 NegativeLocal currency likely to slip further amid
depleting reservesTrade Deficit (US$ Mn) (15,501) (14,970) Negative Oil to play a vital role
Total Debt as a % of GDP 59% 62.60% NegativeMajor chunk of increase has come from domesti
sources
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5 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Fixed Income: Short Span; Big Swings
Every story has a positive and a negative aspect and this becomes clearer as we analyze the inflationary environment and the
fixed income returns.
In August 2012, GoP changed the base year for CPI calculation from fiscal year 2001 to fiscal year 2008. At the same time,
Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) adopted the latest Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose being
formulated by the United Nations (UN). This resulted in change in weightage of the components in CPI basket with a major
change witnessed in the food group which declined from an earlier 40% to 37%. These two steps did wonders with inflation
taking the downward trend.
Analyzing the numbers, we see that the average inflation for fiscal year 2012 closed at 11.01% after touching the peaks of 25%
in fiscal year 2009. This prompted the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to adopt a stance of monetary easing by slashing the
discount rate twice in a year from 14.00% to 12.00%. The base year change continued to shower its blessing with the onset of
fiscal year 2013, as inflation for the first four months averaged at a subdued 8.76%. Resultantly, SBP continued its path of
monetary easing and reduced the discount rate by a further 200 bps in two consecutive monetary policy statements, bringing it
down to 10%. Inflation for the four months of fiscal year 2013 clocked in at 8.76%, but with the rebasing effect fading off, we
expect the inflation to inch up in the second half of fiscal year 2012 though it will still remain in a comfortable zone. Though in
the short term we foresee a monetary easing stance of the SBP, in the long term we anticipate the monetary easing to halt.
With every cut made, SBP re-iterated its stance of aiding the economy via this step, effects of which, we hope will be evident in
a years time. However, the effect of this rate cut was felt by reduced returns on various fixed income securities as shown in the
table below:
Table 4- Fixed Income
Before Monetary
Easing (July 2011)
Current Rates
(November 2012)Difference
SBP Discount Rate 14.00% 10.00% (4.00%)
GoP Securities
6- Months T-Bills 13.76% 9.23% (4.54%)
Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs)- 10 Years 14.07% 11.58% (2.49%)
Ijarah Sukuks - 3 years 14.00% 10.00% (4.00%)
Saving Schemes
Special Saving Certificates -3 years 14.00% 10.70% (3.30%)
Defense Saving Certificates - 10 years 13.55% 11.50% (2.05%)
Corporate Instruments
TFCs (AA- rated and above)- 2 to 8 Years 14.49% 10.50% (3.99%)
Corporate Sukuks 15.70% 10.42% (5.28%)
Bank Placement - 6 12 months 12.50% 9.00% (3.50%)
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Equity: A Tale of Twin Peaks 2008-2012
The global economic scenario has radically changed in the last few years. The markets have become more integrated and
correlated. The fiscal year 2012 began amidst a lot of uncertainty in the international equity markets and the world was on the
brink of financial turmoil led by precarious economic situation. On the local front, political uncertainty reigned supreme with
the current regime coming under fire from a number of quarters. Adding fuel to the fire was the worsening relations with the
US post death of Pakistani soldiers in US strikes. With the onset of fiscal year 2013, tension eased off with US issuing an apology
and resumption of NATO supply routes and KSE-100 index picked up momentum and continued its upward march.
A Comparative Tale of the Twin Peaks
The KSE-100 index touched an all time high of 16,200 in November 2012, crossing its previous high of 15,438 that it attained in
April 2008 as shown in figure 2 below:
Analyzing the scenario of 2008, we saw the KSE-100 index stumbling down and floor being imposed on index level after posting
phenomenal performance. A point of contention that prevails in an investors mind is the similarity between the two time
periods, and as given in table 5 below, we see that the market multiple is currently quite low, which renders the equity
investment pretty attractive. We would like to add here that KSE- 100 index is a total return index incorporating all payments by
its component companies. Hence, the current level of 16,000 is not equivalent to the peaks attained in 2008.
Table 5- Relative Comparison of the Two Peaks
FY 08- A Year of
Economic Turmoil
FY12- Path to
Recovery
FY13 Future Outlook -
Hopes PinnedComments
KSE- 100 Index 12,289 14,143 PositiveUpside march to continue from
growing corporate profitability.
Prospective P/E 10.4x 6.40x PositiveLow P/E makes the stock market very
attractive.Earnings Growth 17% 14% Negative Sustainable earnings growth.
Leverage Amount in Market (Rs. Bn) 54.00 2.00 Positive Reduction in leverage amount.
Market Capitalization. (Rs. Mn) 2.28 Mn 2.42 Mn PositiveGrowing corporate profitability
enhances market capitalization.
Dividend Yield 3.3% 6.6% Positive Attractive dividend yield.
6 month T- Bills 13.80% 9.23% Positive Monetary easing continues.
Gap between Dividend Yield & T-bill
Rate-10.5% -2.6% Positive
FY13 dividend yield of 6.6% is 250bps
below current T-bill yield of 9.1%.
Figure 2: The graph above shows the two historical peaks witnessed in the KSE-100 index on closing basis.
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As shown in Table 5 above, we see that the future direction of the KSE-100 index is positive and we expect the index to touch
the psychological barriers of 17,000 by mid of 2013. On the back of strong fundamentals and superior corporate profitability
we saw KSE-100 index emerging as one of the best performing markets with a return of over 40% during the ten months of
current calendar year (2012).
Investments in Equities- Much Better than Alternatives!
When available alternatives are compared with respect to return over a twelve year period, equities have remained the best
choice for investors who have a long term perspective and can withstand short to medium term volatility in stock market. As
evident in the table given below, in the last twelve years, Pakistan stock market has provided a compounded annual return of
22% on investments which is higher as compared to other asset classes. The second best performing asset over the same
period, gold that has glittered over the period in fact has lagged behind equities by a whopping 4% per annum.
Equity Gold DSS PIBs Inflation
6-month
Tbill
Bank
deposits
CY01 -16% 2% 15% 13% 4% 11% 6%
CY02 112% 25% 13% 9% 4% 7% 4%
CY03 66% 19% 9% 5% 3% 2% 2%
CY04 39% 6% 8% 7% 7% 3% 1%
CY05 54% 18% 9% 9% 9% 8% 3%
CY06 5% 2 3% 1 0% 10% 8% 9% 3%
CY07 40% 31% 10% 10% 8% 9% 4%
CY08 -58% 6% 11% 14% 20% 12% 6%
CY09 60% 24% 11% 13% 14% 13% 6%
CY10 28% 30% 12% 13% 15% 13% 6%
CY11 -6% 10% 13% 14% 12% 13% 6%
CY12 40% 10% 12% 13% 10% 11% 5%
CAGR 22% 17% 1 1% 11% 9% 9% 4%
Table 6-Investment Avenues
Equity: KSE 100 Index has been used as a proxy
DSS: Defense Saving Certificates
PIBs: Pakistan Investment Bonds CertificatesInflation is represented by Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Total Banking SectorDeposit (Source: SBP)
22%
17%
11% 11%9% 9%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Equity Gold DS S PI Bs I nflation 6-month
Tbill
Bank
deposits
Figure 3: Investment Avenue (CAGR)
22%
17%
11% 11%9% 9%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Equity Gold DS S PI Bs I nflation 6-month
Tbill
Bank
deposits
Figure 3: Investment Avenue (CAGR)
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8 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
Commodities: Grit & Glitter
Despite their return potential, traditional asset classes such as equity and fixed income remain exposed to declining interest
rates and recessionary trends. Hence, non-traditional asset classes namely, precious metals and commodities can act as
diversifiers to improve risk-return profile of your portfolio.
We reiterate that the structural issues of leading economies would lead to a flood of paper money and hence declining
purchasing power. In such times, commodities and precious metals can act as safe havens for investors seeking to protect
themselves from hyper-inflation. It is estimated that since April 2012, the global debt has increased by approximately US$2
trillion to US$49-51 trillion based on different estimates. This figure will get an additional boost from the US$40bn per month
injection by US Fed alone under the name of Quantitative Easing III and host of bailouts to come in the EU, these economies
represent a combined 47% of global GDP.
Oil: After touching their highest level of US$147/ bbl in July 2008, oil touched a low of US$32.4/bbl in January 2009, though the
crash was for a short span of time. Since then oil prices have remained firm and almost recovered 80% of the fall in the prices.
However, the slowdown in global economies may lead to a weak outlook for oil despite disturbances in Middle East which
would continue to support prices.
Gold: Gold prices on an average were up by more than 30% in 2010 while for the last two years (i.e. 2011 and CYTD 2012) havewitnessed an average appreciation by a mere 10% each year. The gold has provided a compounded annual return of 17% over
the last twelve years; we feel that it may still have a crucial role to play despite being speculative in nature. An important point
of contention is that, with current deleveraging and easing, gold may move sideways. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep a
nominal percentage in your portfolio, and stay long in the commodity to reap the benefits of diversification.
Cotton: Cotton remains important to the economic health of Pakistan as nearly 50% of exports are dependent on cotton and
cotton related goods. We anticipate that global demand and supply dynamics may not be in favor of the commodity as excess
global supply combined with deteriorating demand owing to recessionary trends. We anticipate that the cotton prices may not
move much owing to the above factors.
Alternate asset classes such as precious metals and commodities can act as important diversifiers to the portfolio. Assets like
precious metals can act as hyper-inflationary shield to excesses in monetary policies while commodities can act as return
enhancers.
Table 7- Commodity Trend
FY2008 FY2012 Future Outlook Comments
Brent Crude US$/bbl 138.04 97.79 PositiveDemand may taper off; tensions in Middle East may
continue to support
Gold Prices US$/ ounce 925 1597 PositiveWill become favorable as central banks continue to
increase bank reserves
Cotton US/lb 71.4 72.16 NeutralDemand stagnation combined with improved supplies
may keep the commodity under pressure
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Technical Analysis: Bull Run to Continue
After declining significantly in 2008 the KSE100 has been in an uptrend since January 2009. Rising from its lows of 4,781, the
benchmark index now stands above 16,000 and is still holding strong. Since the beginning of fiscal year 2013 the benchmarkindex has rallied from 13,812 to 16,292 (intra day high posted on 12
thNovember 2012) - posting a healthy gain of 2,480 points
or almost 18% in just over four months.
On taking a closer look at 4 year weekly chart of KSE-100 (as shown below) we can see that the trendline drawn from 4,781 (the
diagonal red line on top) has played a significant role in helping the KSE-100 track along on both sides of its path. The same
chart also reveals that the 20 Week Exponential Moving average (WEMA) has played a significant role in supporting the index
during the June 2012 correction.. Also notice the bearish wedge extending from the lows of 2012 in a bullish uptrend.
Considering the mixed signal generated by the wedge, a break out in either direction is possible. Bullish breakouts should be
accompanied by a significant increase in volume with appropriate stops used if volume surge is not seen. The price action prior
to a wedge formation can be used as a guide in predicting the price movement upon breakout. Another finding on daily charts
highlights multiple Fibonacci projection levels, extending a strong cluster of resistance from 16,200 to 16,700.
Since the beginning of fiscal year 2013, 20 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has played a vital role in supporting the
KSE100 and in return help post recent gains. There has only been one incident of 20EMA being taken out in calendar year 2012
and that was during the 9.3% correction in June. Based on mid term historical behavior of 20EMA it is safe to assume that thebenchmark index is likely to continue its journey up north as long as it hovers above the 20EMA. Similarly, the red trend line
(the one on top) will continue to pose resistance although the index can potentially trail along parallel to its pathuntill it
undergoes some consolidation or correction. We would be shorting it only upon a decisive break below 20EMA aiming for
support around 20WEMA. Amidst minor hiccups the KSE100 looks set to test 18,200 towards the end of fiscal year 2013.
Figure 3: Technical Analysis
Source: Bloomberg
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10 | P a g e Al-Meezan Investment Management Limited- Economic and Market Outlook 2012-2013
The Path Ahead:Outlook & Optimal Asset Allocation
Outlook
Pakistan has a huge potential for growth and it is further favored by the
demographic characteristics where 60% of the population is below the age of
30. With increasing urbanization, consumer demand is gradually rising which
will serve as an impetus to growth in the near future. The constraints lie on
the supply side coming majorly from infrastructural inefficiencies and
improper planning by the government. These issues can be resolved with
better governance and planning and with elections due early next year, there
are high expectations that these issues will be tackled by the new
government.
On the economic end, the major challenges stem from the oil prices, which at current levels of US$110/ bbl, pose a heavy
burden to the oil import bill. At the current prices we expect the oil import bill to surpass US$15.2bn in fiscal year 2013. As far
as current account is concerned, the situation improved in the first four months of FY 13 with the support of coalition fund from
USA. Whereas, inflation is anticipated to inch up in the second half of fiscal year 2013, we expect that it will remain in
comfortable zone.
While it is feared that monetary easing may be short-lived, in the event that Pakistan approaches IMF funding program, the
possibility of a rise in discount rate is even more distant. However, in the midst of all the pressure forces dragging the economy,
the equity market is expected to continue to reach new heights along with rising consumer demand serving as an impetus to
growth in the near future.
Strategic Optimal Asset Allocation
The table below shows the optimal asset allocations for an investor based on his stage of life and risk-taking ability. The
combination of the two factors determines the relevant investment style an investor should pursue:
The recommended strategy for our investors is to go for a more conservative, long-term focus plan that yields
substantial returns through every boom and bust cycle. Moreover, a greater focus on research and analysis and
a low volatility fund management aimed at reducing risk and protecting investments should be the priority.
However, for such tailored and personalized investment advisory and allocation services, investors are only
advised to approach our professional investment advisors. Just dial 0800- HALAL (42525) or SMS INVEST to
6655, and one of our representatives will contact you promptly.
Table 8- Asset Allocation
Age Group Investment Style Risk Taking Ability Equity Gold Fixed Income Money Market
Young Aggressive High 60% 10% 20% 10%
Middle Aged Balanced Medium to High 40% 10% 30% 20%
Retirement Age Conservative Low to Medium 20% 0 50% 30%
Post Retirement Very Conservative Low 0 0 60% 40%
Key Triggers-2013
Growing corporate profitability
Improvement in Pak- USA relationsExpectation of further monetary easing
Improving economic indicators
Attractive P/E multiple and growing foreign
interest
Stability stemming from political end
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