AL-06 Flash Poll Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8 N = 89,695 / n = 647 MoE = +/- 3.84% at 95% Confidence Interval CLIENT: None; For Media Release Republican Primary Runoff Election – July 15, 2014
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AL-06 Flash Poll Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8
N = 89,695 / n = 647 MoE = +/- 3.84% at 95% Confidence Interval
CLIENT: None; For Media Release
Republican Primary Runoff Election – July 15, 2014
PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (H2H)
05/27 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results MoE +/- 3.68%
DeMarco – 19.8% Palmer – 18.1% Beason – 12.1% Mathis – 16.8% Brooke – 11.2% Vigneulle – 3.4% Undecided – 18.6%
DeMarco – 32.7% Palmer – 19.7% Beason – 15.3% Mathis – 15.3% Brooke – 13.9% Vigneulle – 2.5%
Difference
DeMarco – 12.9% Palmer – 1.6% Beason – 3.2% Mathis – -1.5% Brooke – 2.7% Vigneulle – -0.9%
NOTE: We pegged every candidate within the margin of error except DeMarco, which we expected. Out of all the candidates, DeMarco had the highest favorability at the time (52.5 fav – 28.6 unfav). Undecided voters tend to break toward the most well-known, well-liked candidate, and that occurred on 06/03/14. We projected turnout at 111,931 and it ended up being 94,354.
RUNOFF POLLING Head-to-Head (H2H)
Definite DEMARCO
19.1%
Probably DEMARCO
10.2%
Definite PALMER 46.8%
Probably PALMER 12.8%
Undecided 11.1%
RUNOFF POLLING Jefferson County (H2H)
Definite DEMARCO
24.0%
Probably DEMARCO
11.9% Definite PALMER 45.6%
Probably PALMER 11.3%
Undecided 7.2%
RUNOFF POLLING Shelby County (H2H)
Definite DEMARCO
12.7%
Probably DEMARCO
8.2%
Definite PALMER 50.8%
Probably PALMER 12.4%
Undecided 15.9%
RUNOFF POLLING All Other Counties (H2H)
Definite DEMARCO
15.7%
Probably DEMARCO
8.5%
Definite PALMER 43.8%
Probably PALMER 17.7%
Undecided 14.2%
FAVORABILITY DeMarco vs. Palmer
0 10 20 30 40 50 45.7
29.5
8.6
4.2 10.4
1.7
20.1
31.2
22.6
14.9
9.9
1.3
DeMarco
Palmer
VOTING PROPENSITY Highest & High
DeMarco 27.7%
Palmer 66.2%
Undec 6.1%
DeMarco 28.6%
Palmer 57.0%
Undec 14.4%
Highest Propensity High Propensity
VOTING PROPENSITY Mid & Lowest
DeMarco 33.5%
Palmer 51.6%
Undec 14.9%
DeMarco 27.3%
Palmer 53.2%
Undec 19.5%
Medium Propensity Lowest Propensity
16.1%
45.8%
30.1%
8.0%
All
Most
Some
None
AGREEMENT WITH Tea Party Views
Demographic Info
Political Ideology Very Conservative – 49.1% Somewhat Conservative – 33.2% Independent – 13.9% Somewhat Liberal – 2.6% Very Liberal – 1.2%
Age Range 18 to 34 – 3.9% 35 to 49 – 18.1% 50 to 64 – 35.4% 65+ – 42.7%
Gender Male – 47.5% Female – 52.5%
Geography
Jefferson – 52.1% Shelby – 29.1% Others – 18.8%
Primary Propensity Zones Highest – 44.5% High – 26.9% Medium – 24.4% Low – 4.3%
For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:
Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner [email protected]
Cory Brown, Data Strategist [email protected]
www.cygn.al
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