AIRPACT-3 status and near- term objectives Joe Vaughan Brian Lamb Jeremy Avise Jack Chen Matt Porter Li Wang.

AIRPACT-3 status and near-term objectives

Joe Vaughan

Brian Lamb

Jeremy Avise

Jack Chen

Matt Porter

Li Wang

Outline:

Status:– Reliability– Dairy Ammonia emissions– BlueSky wildfire emissions (PM2.5 & CO)– (Adjusted Mozart Boundary conditions)– (QuickLook Verification) – Off-line & selective Hg modeling– Dec 2005 PM2.5 Analysis

Near-Term Objectives and work in progress

• Convert rainier AIRPACT operations to new Linux box

• Re & Development of web sites• WEPS integration• Aug-Nov 2004 Evaluation (& Pathfinding)• Push Forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs?• Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?

Who’s working on what

• Re & Development of web sites: Jennifer Hinds• Hg, N, S deposition (RGI): Matt Porter• Wind Erosion Prediction System: Li Wang• AIRPACT-3(+) evaluation for 2004 Jack Chen• Conversion to new linux system: Joe Vaughan• Satellite data retrieval: Farren Thorpe• Wildfire emissions: Jeremy Avise and

Jack Chen

Reliability

– November 2006?• Only Nov 26 run CMAQ failed to complete• Failsafe’s operation ran successfully for retrieving EPA

CMAQ results• Only to fail on disk space in graphics generation…

– CMAQ and forecast graphics generally complete by 4 AM.

Dairy NH3 Emission Module

WA Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)

Housing 8,634

Storage 5,441

Application 4,364

Total 18,439

OR Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)

Housing 9,469

Storage 5,079

Application 3,420

Total 17,967

BlueSky/AIRPACT-3 Wildfire Smoke Modeling

MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006

BlueSky System at Forest Service

Observed Fire Events

AIRPACT retrieves: fire

location, fire size, heat flux, emissions

Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006

WSU Pullman

Hourly CTM vs Obs PM25Pullman, WA, 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep01 00 Sep02 00 Sep03 00 Sep04 00 Sep05 00 Sep06 00 Sep07 00 Sep08 00 Sep09 00 Sep10 00

PM

25

ug

/m3

OBS_PM25

CTM_PM25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sep01 00 Sep02 00 Sep03 00 Sep04 00 Sep05 00 Sep06 00 Sep07 00 Sep08 00 Sep09 00 Sep10 00

PM

25 u

g/m

3

CTM_PM25 (24hrAvg)

OBS_PM25 (24hrAvg)Pullman, Sept, 2006

5x5 GRID CELL MATRIX CENTERED AROUND SWAN RANCH (NTS)

Maximum Total_HG Wet Deposition May 18, 2006, 1600 PST

ug/ha

Rainy

day

,

Sout

hwes

t flo

w

AIRPACT-3 MAX (OVER 5X5 MATRIX) MERCURY WET AND DRY DEPOSITION MAY 18, 2006 AT SWAN RANCH

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 5 10 15 20 25

PST (hrs)

HG

(u

g/h

a)

HG-DRY

HG-WET

EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE

ByALICIA K. TONEY

Parameter mean bias mean absolute error Temperature (deg C) -0.5 2.1 Wind Speed (m/s) -0.6 1.2 Wind Direction (DEG) 12 70

EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE

ByALICIA K. TONEY

Site AVERAGE of

PREDICTED 24-hr running-means

AVERAGE of OBSERVED

24-hr running-mean

Gross bias

Fract Bias (%)

Lacey 5.8 20.2 -14.4 -28

Tacoma 11.8 25.6 -13.8 -21

Lynnwood 16.6 18.2 -1.6 -8

Wenatchee 3.2 17.7 -14.5 -40

Marysville 4.1 19.6 -15.5 -33

Bothell 22.4 18.8 3.6 7

Spokane 7.5 20.3 -12.8 -23

Kent 18.4 19.5 -1.1 -0

Ellensburg 10.6 15.3 -4.7 -10

North Bend 1.1 8.5 -7.4 -38

Seattle 15.7 10.2 5.5 7

Overall 10 17.7 -7 -16

EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE

Lynnwood

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

335 337 339 341 343 345 347 349 351

Day of Year, 2005

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

Obs 24-hr

Pred 24-hr

Kent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

335 337 339 341 343 345 347 349 351

Day of Year, 2005

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

Obs 24-hr

Pred 24-hr

Ellensburg

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

335 337 339 341 343 345 347 349 351

Day of Year, 2005

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

Obs 24-hr

Pred 24-hr

Moving rainier operations to new linux box

• Rainier is (1990s era) DEC-Compaq-HP alpha-based w/ Unix

• New box is AMD w/ Debian Linux• Issues:

– compiler switches – routine name ‘mangling’ – library creation– path changes

– testing

Re & Development of Web Sites

• WSU Publication’s Content Mgmt System• Putting web authoring control in LAR• Strategy --

– Shorten cycle for updating project contents.– Standardize web code/technology across projects. – Get standard content in place, then

– Focus on data graphics generation, tools, and downloads.

WEPS-AIRPACT-3 Databases DevelopmentWEPS-AIRPACT-3 Databases DevelopmentGuanglong Feng and Li Wang Guanglong Feng and Li Wang

Land Use &Soil Management

Landuse Management Database

BELD3 Dry Crop Type and Percentage

Developed and GriddedSoil Database

Evaluation of AIRPACT-3+ for Aug –– Nov 2004 reruns

by Jack Chen

MCIP v3.1 at 21 layersCMAQ v4.6

Aerosol v4 w/ Sea saltPathfinder for next upgrades for AIRPACT-3,

to be implemented once running on new Linux box.

EPA AQS O3 StationsHourly O3 for Aug – Sep 2004

8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time

100

80

60

40

20

0

Mo

de

led

(p

pb

v)

100806040200

Measured (ppbv)

8-Hour Ozone Daily Maximum (EPA AQS Sites) Num of Points 1855

MB 6.5

ME 9.2

NB 25%

NE 30%

NMB 18%

NME 25%

FB 19%

FE 25%

RMSE 11.2

R 0.6

CTMMAX 87.1

CTMAVG 41.9

OBSMAX 78.8

OBSAVG 36.6

8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time

0.1

2

4

6

81

2

4

6

810

Mo

de

led

/ M

easu

red

Rat

io

80604020Measured (ppbv)

Hour Difference Between OBS. and CTM. Peak Daily 8-Hr O3

30

25

20

15

10

5

Per

cent

age

Cou

nt (

%)

121086420Hour Difference Between Observed and Measured O3 Peak Time (hour)

Data Paired by Site and Date

Number of Data Points: 2265

IMPROVE / EPA-AQS PM StationsAug – Nov 2004

50

48

46

44

42

-124 -122 -120 -118 -116 -114 -112

EPA_AQS_PM2.5_Sites EPA_AQS_Speciated_PM_Sites IMPROVE

Fractional ErrorBy Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov

2004

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Average Concentration (ug/m3)

Fra

ctio

nal

Err

or

Goal

Criteria

PM25

PNO3

PSO4

PEC

POC

PNH4

Fractional BiasBy Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov

2004

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Average Concentration (ug/m3)

Fra

ctio

nal

Bia

s

Goal+

Goal-

Criteria+

Criteria-

PM25

PNO3

PSO4

PEC

POC

PNH4

Based on results of evaluations… should we…

Push forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs?

Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?