Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)[1]

8/4/2019 Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)[1]

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Air Pollution

Gu y Hu t t on , Ph D

DSI Development

Solutions International

guy.hutton@dev-sol-

int.com

Swiss Centre for

International Health,

Swiss Tropical Institute

Basel, Switzerland


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Presentation Overview

The problem The range of solutions

The costs of selected solutions

The benefits of selected solutions

Benefit-cost ratios

Interpretation of results

Issues in scaling up the solutions


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The problem: introduction

Suspended particulate matter (dust, soot, fumes,

mist, smoke, liquid droplets), gaseous pollutants(lead, SO2, NO2, O3, CO), odours

Transportation, energy generation, industrialoperations, processing industries, domesticcooking & heating

Air pollution impacts Human and animal health (respiratory, heart)

Buildings and materials Agricultural production

Biodiversity

Visibility

Greenhouse gases


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13.03.2007 4

The problem: causes

Household use of biomass for cooking and heating Open fires or traditional stoves

Conditions of low combustion efficiency, poor ventilation

Problem more in rural areas (biomass) Also other "modern" indoor air pollutants (e.g. sick-

building syndrome)

And environmental tobacco smoke, exposure to

chemicals or gases in indoor workplaces

Rule of 1000: pollutant released indoors is 1000times more likely to reach peoples lungs than one

released outdoors

Indoor air


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13.03.2007 5

The problem: causes

Combustion of petroleum products or coal

Motor vehicles, industry, power generation

Mainly around cities and industrial areas

Associated with advancing economic development

Implies also a corresponding underdevelopment

Affording technologies that reduce pollution

Subsidizing public transport schemes Enforcing regulations

Outdoor air


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13.03.2007 6

The problem: the numbers

> 3 billion peopledepend on solid fuels

In rural areas,

unimproved domesticfuels account for 66%(WPR) to >85%households (SSA & SEA)

> 1.5 million annualdeaths attributed to solidfuel use within the home

1.5 billion pop. breatheair > WHO standard

800,000 annual deaths

65% in developing Asia

0.6% - 1.4% diseaseburden in LDCs

Lead pollution contributesfurther 0.9%

Omits air pollution fromforest fires and industrial

or nuclear accidents

Indoor air Outdoor air


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13.03.2007 7

Akimoto H

Global Air Qualityand Pollution

Science, 2003


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Global mean tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) 01/2003 06/2004. University of Heidelberg.


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Air pollution in the MDGs

Health goals 4, 5 and 6

Environmental sustainability goal 7

Gender equality goal 3 Overall poverty rates goal 1


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Indoor Air


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The solutions: indoor air

Reducing the source of pollution

Improved cooking devices Cleaner burning fuel

Reduced need for fire

Altering the living environment

Ventilation Kitchen design

Stove placement

Alter user behaviour Fuel drying Stove and chimney maintenance

Use of pot lids to conserve heat

Keep children away from the smoke


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13.03.2007 12

Costs and benfits of the solution

Few cost-benefit studies ofindoor air pollutioninterventions

One study by WHO evaluated global andregional costs and benefits of selected indoor

air pollution interventions: Solid fuels to LPG or ethanol

Improved stoves

All evaluated for MDG target and universal access,

also with a separate pro-poor analysis

This presentation shows the MDG analysis


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Total costs of solutions (US$ m)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

US$millions

LPG

Global annual cost = 23.6 billion US$Global annual cost = 23.6 bill ion US$


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13.03.2007 14

Total costs of solutions (US$ m)

Stove

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

US$millions

Global annual cost = 2.3 bill ion US$Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$


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13.03.2007 15

Net costs of solutions (US$ m)

LPG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-

B

SEAR-

D

WPR-B

US$millionsGlobal annual net cost = 13.1 bill ion US$Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$


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Net costs of solutions (US$ m)

Stove

-16000

-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-

B

SEAR-

D

WPR-B

US$millions

Global annual net cost =Global annual net cost = --34.4 billion US$34.4 billion US$


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Total benefits of solutions (% )

Time savings

45%

Environment

6%

Fuel10%

Health care

0%

Morbidity

1%

Mortality

38%

LPG

Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$


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Total benefits of solutions (% )

Mortality

10%

Morbidity

0%

Health care

0%

Fuel

26%

Environment2%

Time savings

62%

Stove

Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$


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Benefit-cost ratios: LPG

DALY

= US$1,000

DALY= US$5,000

Value

Productivity

& VOSL

0

2

4

6

8

10

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

0

2

46

8

10


0

2

4

6

8

10



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Benefit-cost ratios: stove

DALY

= US$1,000

DALY= US$5,000

Value

Productivity

& VOSL

0

2040

60

80

100

120


0

20

4060

80

100

120


0

20

4060

80

100

120



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One-way sensitivity analysis

AFR-D

Region

LPG 0.05.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1.Stove

costs&efficiency

2.Fuelprices

3.Health

impacts

4.Valueoft

ime (allpopulation

5.Valueoft

ime (children

only)

6.Timevalue(adults

andc

hildren

differently

7.Timesavings

8.Treecost

10.GHG

emissions

11.Emissio

nseconomicvalu

12.Discountrate

B

enefit-CostRatio

LowBase case

High


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Outdoor Air


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The solutions: outdoor air

Remove pollution at its source

Fewer vehicle kilometers traveled

Reduce need to travel

Switch to public transport or car pooling

Less fuel use per vehicle km traveled Lighter vehicles

More efficient engine

Less pollution per unit of fuel used

Switch to cleaner fuel Catalytic converter

Filtering pollution away from the source

(chimneys, re-location)

- e.g. transport


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The solutions: outdoor air

Policy options Illegal to use a polluting fuel or substance (e.g. bans

on leaded gasoline or asbestos)

Increase the costs of using polluting fuels (polluter

pays principle fuel tax or road tax)

Disseminate information on best practices

Less polluting technologies

Fuel efficiency

Changing behaviour


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Costs and benfits of the solution

Considerable diversity of studies in literature

National versus city-level studies

Comprehensive air pollution control versus single

regulatory measures Single versus multiple pollutant interventions

Industry-wide versus single industry measures

Interventions presented focus mainly on fuelswitching or technological solutions

Studies mainly from developed countries


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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

1. US Federal Regulations

Policy National emissions standards for

hazardous air pollutants

Scope Country-wide Year 1994-2004

Cost US$15 - US$17 billion annually

Benefit HealthUS$41 - US$218 billion annually

BCR 2.72 - 13.0


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2. United States EPA Clean Air Act

Policy Clean Air Act

Scope Country-wide

Year 1990 - 2010

Cost US$19 billion annually in 2000

Rising to US$27 billion annually in 2010

Benefit Health, crop damage, visibility

US$71 billion annually in 2000

Rising to US$110 billion annually

BCR 3.8


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3. European clean air targets

Policy Reductions in emissions to meet air

quality targets for CO, heavy metals,

ozone, hydrocarbons

Scope Europe-wide

Cost Euro 7 billion annually

Benefit Mortality, morbidity, hospital admissions

(from PM and ozone)

Euro 42 billion annually

BCR 6.0


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4. UK Air Quality Strategy review

Policy 17 policy measures to achieve AQS

Scope Country-wide

Year 2005 - 2020 Cost 374 - 866 million annually

Benefit Health

566 - 2021 million annually BCR 0.9 3.8


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5. China natural gas project

Policy Substituting natural gas for coal in

residential and commercial uses

Scope Beijing and Chongqing

Year 1998 - 2018

Cost Capital investment year 0

Beij. 3.5 bn RBM; Chong. 0.7 bn RMB

Benefit Health annual figuresBeij. 2.1 bn RBM; Chong. 4.9 bn RMB

NPV Beij: 6.9 bn RMB; Chong: 18.6 bn RMB

IRR Beij: 29%; Chong: 75%


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6. Shanghai Emission Control

Policy Emissions control in power and industry

Scope Shanghai

Year 2010-2020

Cost Power: US$395 million annually

Industry: US$94 million annually

Benefit Mortality, morbidity, work days (PM10)

Power: US$417 million annually

Industry: US$266 million annually

BCR 2.0 (power) and 5.4 (industry)


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7. Japan sulphur emissions control

Policy Comparing SO2 emissions control in 3

policy epochs

Scope Country-wide

Year 1968-73; 1974-1983; 1984-93 Cost (1) 5,576 bn Yen; (2) 15,991 bn Yen

(3) 9,354 bn Yen

Benefit Morbidity, work days(1) 30,058 bn Yen; (2) 18,818 bn Yen;

(3) 3,854 bn Yen

BCR (1) 5.39; (2) 1.18; (3) 0.41


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Other studies presenting BCRs

Air pollution reductions in Hungary: 3.0 17.0

Emissions reductions in the oil extraction industry

in Kazakhstan: 5.7

Nitric oxide and NO2 emissions reductions in Tokyo

(1974 to 1993): 6.0

Pollution control programme in Canada: 3.0


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Interpreting the results

Outdoor air pollution studies estimate mainlyhealth-related costs, omitting

Quality of life indicators

Material damage and costs of cleaning up

Agricultural production

Biodiversity

Global environment

Large uncertainties in health impact estimations

Economic results highly dependent on valuationtechniques e.g. value of life


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Scaling up the solutions

Priority settingMultiple factors influence decision makers

Financing

Cost savings make some interventions attractive

Environmental benefits are externalities

Other issues

Regulations need to be respected (policing costs)

Access to markets and technologies

Air Pollution (Guy Hutton)[1]

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