A. Mikhailov 1 A. Petrov 1 O. Proncheva 1,2 1 Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (RAS) 2 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (SU) Mathematical modeling of information processes AINL FRUCT: Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language Conference
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A. Mikhailov1
A. Petrov1
O. Proncheva1,2 1Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (RAS)
2Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (SU)
Mathematical modeling of information processes
AINL FRUCT: Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language
Conference
The weapon of criticism cannot, of course, replace criticism of the weapon, material force must be overthrown by material force; but theory also becomes a material force as soon as it has gripped the masses.
Marx, A Contribution to the Critique of Hegel’s Philosophy of Right (1844)
A newspaper is not only a collective propagandist and collective agitator, but also a collective organiser.
Lenin, Where To Begin (1901)
2
Information
3
Information is not entropy, information is not
uncertainty!
Thomas D. Schneider
Information is a measure of the decrease of
uncertainty.
Claude Shannon
Information is information, not matter or energy.
Norbert Wiener
Society in the information field
4
The vertical
(centralized)
flows of
information
influence
Horizontal
(interpersonal,
networking)
flows of
information
influence
The combination of these flows determines the dynamics of
information dissemination in society
Conceptual framework
Sociological argument about information
dissemination through mass-media and
interpersonal communication
5
The Rwandan genocide, known officially as the genocide against the Tutsi, was a genocidal mass slaughter of Tutsi in Rwanda by members of the Hutu majority government.
Empirical facts: The broadcasts increased militia violence not only directly by
influencing behavior in villages with radio reception, but also indirectly by increasing participation in neighboring villages.
Spillovers are estimated to have caused more militia violence than the direct effects.
(D. Yanagizawa-Drott,
Propaganda and conflict: evidence from the Rwandan Genocide» (2014))
Basic model of information attack
- the number of spreaders - external persuasion - internal persuasion - size of a group
Information dissemination without
warfare
0
dNN N N
dt
(Mikhailov A.P., Klusov N.V., 2002)
00N N
00
0 0
exp
exp
N tN N
N t N
6
0N
( )N t
Maximum agiotage: 0
1
2gN N
Information dissemination without
warfare
7
adoption of the information with forgetting 0
dXX N X X
dt
incomplete coverage of society by the media
two-steps information perception
1
2
dXX Y N X
dt
dYX Y N Y
dt
0 2dx
X N X xdt
dXx X
dt
Adoption of the information with
forgetting
8
2
0 0 04
2
sN N N
N
Steady state:
The condition for maximum agiotage 0
0 , gN N N
Incomplete coverage of society by
the media
9
Blue line– use mass-media Purple line– don’t use mass media
Two-steps information perception
10
red line - the number of spreaders blue line - the number of pre-spreaders