AIMS zConsider linkages between AONBs and the broader space economy zReview Demand for Housing and its Accommodation 2001-2011 zExamine the Role of AONBs.

AIMS

Consider linkages between AONBs and the broader space economy

Review Demand for Housing and its Accommodation 2001-2011

Examine the Role of AONBs in accommodating dwellings

suggest some Implications

Contemporary Economy: Attenuated Linkages

Valued Landscapes imply Residential Desirability and demand pressure

in many AONBs

Community Types

Community Types

Many AONBs provide homes to high status households supplying labour to a broad range of employment centres

(shown in purple)

Economic Mass (10km)The number of persons living within 10kms of any point serves as a proxy for economic mass A contour of average economic mass lies where the palaest pink meets the green shade;areas with lowest economic mass being shown in blue.

Low economic mass implies lower development pressure

Implied Travel Distance & AONBs

It is possible to model the average distance which people will travel to work from any point on the basis of opportunities at different distances away and other factors including whether the home is in an AONB

The shortest modelled distances are shown in purple ranging through oranges to the longest in deep brown.

Of course, actual travel distances differ from these expectations. Overlaid reds show where people travel further than expectation; overlaid blues show places from

which they travel less far

Travel Distance & AONBsRed divergences indicates longer than expected travel distances-indicative of high residential desirability

Work Travel from the Cotswolds AONB

AONBs: Elite Residential Enclaves

Household Growth & Its Accommodation

Demand driven by falling household size

single livinggreater longevity

dependent upon long-run growth in real income

Household Growth & its Accommodation

Supply response housebuilders castigated by Barker planning system also castigated

Prices rise but demand is not entirely choked off within the market varying adaptive

responses bring forth dwelling units of various types

Change in Dwelling Stock:England; 2001-2011

Patterns of change can be examined by comparing dwellings to which Royal Mail deliver latters

1.85 M Additional Dwellings Accommodated in England (1.95M E&W)

Three Fifths accommodated in Urban Areas (10,000+)

Stock grew by 8.8%Marked growth of dwellings away from

isolated farmsteads, hamlets, villages or larger settlements

Change in Dwelling Stock:2001-2011

Intensity of shading

Change in Dwelling Stock:2001-2011: Practice Paradox

Change in Dwelling Stock:2001-2011

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; Northern England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; Northern England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; Central England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; South Central England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; South West England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; South Central England

Accommodating Dwellings: AONBs; South East England

Change in Dwelling Stock:AONBs; 2001-2011

Accommodate an Additional 44,000 DwellingsRepresents 2.3% of Addition in England and

WalesStock Grew by 9.8%20,000 extra dwellings ‘nowhere’Density of dwellings in AONBs grew by 2.2

units per sq km

Growth in Dwelling Stocks ..

Dwelling Growth 2001-2011LTG Index

Nidderdale 26.3 146

Blackdown Hills 22.8 143

North Devon 22.1 284

Forest Of Bowland 21.6 157

Northumberland Coast 19.3 348

North Pennines 16.8 76

Quantock Hills 16.5 151

Lincolnshire Wolds 14.4 124

Shropshire Hills 14.1 187

Dorset 12.1 266

Mendip Hills 11.6 113

Comparing Patterns of Accommodation 2001-2011

Use Overall Increase in Ambient Dwelling Density across an area: in AONBs: 2.2 extra dwellings per sq km in Buffer: 7.8 extra dwellings per sq km

Comparing Patterns of Accommodation 2001-2011

But if we consider only non-town rural AONBs overall: 2.2 extra dwellings per

sq km nt rural Buffe: 2.4 extra dwellings per

sq km

Comparing Patterns of Accommodation 2001-2011

What about increase in ambient density due to dwellings away from settlement? in AONBs: 1.0 extra dwellings per sq

km in Buffer: 0.5 extra dwellings per sq km

So how are dwellings actually accommodated in AONBs?

Contribution to increase in ambient density per sq km

dwellings away from settlement 1.0 all other dwellings

1.2

So how are dwellings actually accommodated in AONBs?

Clusters of 50+ units: 9,500 All other settings

34,500 Total44,000

Pareto, Peapods and Planning

Vilfredo Pareto noticed that 20% of the pea-pods in his garden yielded 80% of the peas

In many cases 80% of effects flow from 20% of causes

This is the Pareto Principle or the 80:20 Rule It often serves to focus attention and guide

effortBut the figures above show that

accommodation of dwellings in AONBS IS NOT SUCH A CASE

Clusters of 50+

Clusters of 50+

TisburyHermitagePateley BridgeTicehurstPangbourneMaiden NewtonTetburySt JustChurch StrettonLyme RegisSeahousesHawkhurstFoweyReydonSalcombeBudleigh SaltertonWotton Under EdgeSouthwoldLlangollenHawkingeChipping NortonRoss On WyeMarlboroughSwanageBridport

Clusters of 50+

PymoreEddingtonSidmouthBourton On The WaterSt MerrynWyeBattleMevagisseyBlandford ForumHemyockWormleyChillingtonSherstonNaphillMoreton In MarshLonghoughtonKingsbridgeColwallWoolacombeForest RowTadworthUplymeBroadwaySheringhamKirkby MalzeardCombe MartinAldeburghHungerfordBrixhamBeadnellBaydonPewseyWest Bay

Three Half-Formed Thoughts

1) What is it to be Strategic?

Is it to consider only the larger developments (thereby ignoring not only most developments but the largest portion of aggregate development?)

1) What is it to be Strategic?

Or is it to reduce uncertainty by actually taking account of the nature of

the forces for change in AONBs and charting the progress more clearly

clarifying the manner and circumstances in which additional dwellings matter to AONBs through discussion and debate within the AONB community

ensuring that agrreed understandings and approaches are shared with LPAs

2) Don’t Allow Panic and Denial

Startling household growth in some AONBs reflects demand pressure which can assist in achieving high quality schemes

Recognize that planners tend to deny the significance of scattered development against overwhelming evidence

Accept that the 80:20 rule does not apply to rural development

Engage with clearly demonstable market-driven trends, harnessing and moderating them rather than denying them

3) Policy and Implementation

Recognize that engaging with physical development in AONBs in its actual forms demands planning policy which applies to small-scale devlopment

Recognize that implementation demands that officers and members of LPAs recognize at the point of decision that the 80:20 rule does not apply