AICO SeedCo Report

AICO & SeedCo Report- Sprouting the Green Shoots of a Turnaround….

January 2011 Analyst: Batanai Matsika [email protected] +263 772 889 556 +263 4 700 000

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Table of Contents Introduction Global Outlook for Commodities…………………………………………………………………………….…………………………..….………. 2 Zimbabwe Agricultural Sector………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………….. 2 Maize……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…… 2 Tobacco………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….. 3 Cotton………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………. 3 Wheat……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………………………………….. 3 Sugar…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………………………………………………. 3 Company Analysis AICO Africa Limited………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……….………. 4 Nature of Operations……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………….…….. 5 Overview of H1 2011 Results……………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………….…… 6 Operational Review………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………. 6 Outlook……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 Investment Risks & Attractions………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………….…. 7 Valuation and Recommendation……….………………………………………………………………………………………………………….… 8 5-Year Financial Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…….………… 9 SeedCo Limited……………………..………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………… 10 Nature of Operations………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………. 11 Overview of H1 2011 Results…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………. 12 Operational Review……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………. 12 Outlook…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………… 13 Technical Indicators………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 Valuation and Recommendation…………………………..……………………………………………………………………………...………... 13 5-Year Financial Summary…………………………………………..…………………………………………………………………………….…..… 14 Imara Contact Details………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……… 15

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Introduction Global Outlook for Agricultural Commodities The outlook for soft commodities in 2011 is positive, spurred by global cyclical recovery and easy hurdles for global consumption to surpass constrained global production. Major risks however are higher price volatility; especially should governments implement price controls and other trade barriers that increase friction in the movement of scarce inventories. Global agricultural production is anticipated to grow more slowly in the next decade but is on track to satisfy estimated long-term demand. In spite of the recent economic crisis, the agricultural sector has shown remarkable resilience, with strong supply response to recent high prices and continuing demand growth. International commodity prices are anticipated to trend higher on the back of a resumption of economic growth, above all, in developing countries. The rebound in commodity prices that started at the beginning of 2009 is expected to continue into 2011 as the global economy recovers. Rising inflation expectations and actual rate hikes in 2011 will also steepen upward-sloping commodity forward curves. Other factors that have sustained higher prices include the increased demand from China, significant production cuts and some weather-related factors. In 2010, involuntary supply losses—mostly the result of severe weather—drove risk across a number of commodity markets, helping spur significant price surges in wheat, sugar, rice, coffee, cotton and corn. According to the a recent US Department of Agriculture’s update, the global stocks-to-use ratio (including China) for key grains currently stands at 22%, the highest ratio over the past 7-years and close to the historical average of 24%. Rising and volatile domestic staple food prices are an increasing concern in several Sub-Saharan African countries and in some South Asian countries as well. A recent study (World Bank, Food Price Watch) shows that in Tanzania the price of maize increased by 21% in the year ending February 2010 and in Kenya the price of maize rose by 16% in the same period. Also, the DRC, Uganda and Zimbabwe were among the countries with the sharpest fluctuation in prices of main food staples. Food price increases contribute to undernourishment and hunger and heighten the importance of food security policies. This is because the upward trend in price of staples in domestic markets poses a significant threat to both food security and nutrition in the region. However, even in countries such as China, systematic price controls in various commodity markets have been put in place. Many other countries, including the United States, also impose commodity price controls in the form of tariffs, trade quotas, subsidies, and rules on the warehousing and transport of commodities. However, incremental measures may not be ideal for efficient resource allocation. Also, these policy prescriptions contribute to higher realised and implied price volatility.

2008 2009 2010 2011Actual Actual Estimate Projected

Tobacco (million kgs) 56 59 123 150

Maize (million tonnes) 0.575 1.24 1.3 1.5

Cotton (million tonnes) 226 211 260 300

Wheat (000 tonnes) 34 48 20 50

Sugar (000 tonnes) 298 259 350 400

Growth Rate (%) -17.4% 21.2% 33.9% 19.3%

Source: Ministry of Finance

According to the FAO, food prices hit a record high in December 2010, surpassing the levels seen during the 2007-08 crisis. The Rome-based organisation also notes that the rise of commodity prices makes it likely that the global food import bill will hit a record high in 2011, after topping USD 1,000bn last year for only the second time. In November, the FAO raised its 2010 forecast to USD 1,026bn, up almost 15 % from 2009 and within a whisker of a record high of USD 1,031bn set in 2008 during the food crisis. The weakness of the US dollar, in which most food commodities are denominated, has also contributed to higher commodity prices. In our view, commodity prices will continue to hold in 2011. Zimbabwe Agricultural Sector The Ministry of Finance estimates that the agricultural sector will register a growth rate of 33.9% in 2010. The growth is expected to be largely driven by maize, with production increasing +34%; tobacco, +110%; sugar, +35%; and cotton, 23%.

Maize Maize production in 2010 improved from 1.2m tonnes in 2009 to 1.3m tonnes. This was largely underpinned by the higher hectarage of 1.8m compared to last year’s 1.5m as average maize yields fell from 0.8 tonnes to 0.7 tonnes per hectare due to late rains and drought in the southern Provinces.

Global Maize Corn Prices

Agricultural Production Figures in Zimbabwe

Source: www.cnnmoney.com

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Tobacco In the 2009/10 season, about 65,000ha were put under tobacco, with 30,000ha under contract farming, 20,000 ha self financed and 15,000ha by communal farmers. As a result, 123.5m kgs were sold at an average price of USD 2.88. This was against the 2010 mid-year estimates of around 93.0m kgs and 58.6m kgs realised in the 2008/09 season. The increased production in 2010 benefited from self financing from the previous year’s tobacco proceeds of around USD 161.0m as well as additional bank and contract financing. The increased hectarage, as more farmers joined tobacco farming (since it is a cash crop), also enhanced tobacco output. In 2011, tobacco output is projected to increase to 150.0m kgs from about 90,000ha. Private financing will remain a major factor in tobacco farming. Contract farming support, which is projected to increase to 40,000ha, will be augmented by loan facilities from the banking sector as well as self financing from previous years’ proceeds. Cotton

Wheat Over the years, wheat production has been decreasing owing to declining hectarage, funding constraints and unreliable power supply. Under the 2010 winter wheat programme, Government secured a USD26.6m inputs support scheme for farmers to access seeds and fertilizer at subsidised prices. This was targeting to put 45,000ha under wheat production. Under this facility, input deliveries amounted to 835 tonnes of wheat seed and 22,500 tonnes of compound D fertilizer, with a combined value of USD 11.7m. Sugar Total sugar output is expected to increase to 350,000 tonnes in 2010 from 259,000 tonnes in 2009, largely due to the liberalised business environment and the realisation of macro-economic stability. Furthermore, support of EUR 13.7m for vulnerable small holder sugar producers by the European Union (EU) under its Programme of Accompanying Measures for Sugar Protocol Countries for 2010 is going to complement significant investments by the bigger producers. Output in 2011/12 is anticipated to further increase to 450,000 tonnes, with most of this coming from Triangle Sugar’s Hippo Valley Estates where targeted sugar production growth is set to raise output to 330,000 – 350,000 tonnes. Already, the crush rate at Hippo Valley mills has since increased closer to capacity as the second refurbished line was also brought into operation. Further re-establishment and rehabilitation of infrastructure in existing cane production areas should return the sugar industry to its former peak levels of production of 600,000 tonnes per annum.

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Cotton Production Trends

Tonnes (000)-LHS Hectares (000)-RHS

Zimbabwe’s hand picked cotton enjoys a premium on the international markets because of its high quality and International lint prices have since recovered from as low as US42c/lb to US100c/lb. Cotton production is also expected to increase to about 300.0m tonnes in 2011 from about 260.0m tonnes in 2010. In-order to promote productivity, the Government of Zimbabwe enacted Statutory Instrument 142 (SI142). Under this new legislation, all cotton buyers have to register with the Agricultural Marketing Authority and show their intention to fund the crop. The legislation therefore ensures that the industry has serious participants and also attempts to curtail side-marketing.

Source: Imara Edwards Securities

Global Sugar Prices


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AICO inherently has a volatile earnings stream due to the seasonal variability of dry land cotton production and unpredictable lint prices on world commodity markets. However, with bullish expectations with regards to commodity prices in 2011 and beyond and an estimated growth rate of 19.3% in the Zimbabwe agricultural sector, AICO will definitely be one of the exciting agricultural names to look at in 2011. Fund raising initiatives on the cards. Peter Lynch, once commented, we quote, ‘The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them’. AICO has indicated a significant capital raising exercise of USD 50.0m (half of its current market capitalisation). In our view, the capital raising will be a catalyst for the share price as the company expunges its debt and restructures its loans. We also expect the funding to grow and sustain current operations Huge interest bill negating positive operational performance. AICO’s H1 2011 results reflect that finance costs remain a major area of concern. Finance charges amounting to USD 8.2m were recorded as a result of high borrowings. The total loss before tax amounted to USD 11.7m (H1 2009: USD 4.5m) while the loss for the period was USD 10.9m translating to a loss per share of US1.89c. Striking undervaluation. AICO remains undervalued by the market on a sum of parts (S.O.P) basis. AICO’s 51% stake in SeedCo is currently valued at USD 112.8m. This value is in actual fact greater than AICO’s current market capitalisation of USD 106.2m. The market has somewhat missed the cue as it also means that the value of the other businesses (Cottco, Olivine and Scottco) is not factored in. In the light of the pending recapitalisation, our take is that dedicated-money should stay with AICO.

EQUITY RESEARCH ZIMBABWE AGRICULTURE 11 January 2011

BLOOMBERG: AICO:ZH HOLDCurrent price (USc) 20.0

Target price (USc) 41.0

Upside/Downside (%) 105.0

Liquidity Market Cap (US$m) 106.2

Shares (m) 531.1

Free float (%) 49.2

Ave. daily vol ('000) 296.0

Share price performance6 Months (%) 14.0 43%

12 Months (%) 20.0 0%

52 Week High*(13 Jan 2010) 29.0

52 Week Low*(28 June 2010) 13.5

*Bloomberg

Financials 2010 2011F 2012FEPS (USc) (0.8) 1.1 2.4

DPS (USc) - - -

NAV/share (USc) 15.5 17.3 17.9

EBITDA margin (%) 12.3 18.2 18.2

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSESDiversified business Input scheme recoveries

Dominant market share

Strategic Partneships

Strong management team

OPPORTUNITIES THREATSContinued regional expansion Competition from new entrants

New products for FMCG business i.e. the Chinese

Improving disposable incomes Volatile international lint prices

SI 142 ensures favorable recoveries Drought

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0AICO Limited: Relative Graph

Volume Traded-RHS Rel to Industrial Index-LHS

Financials (US$m) 2010 2011F 2012FTurnover 162.9 203.6 254.5

EBITDA 20.1 37.0 46.2

Attributable earnings (4.3) 1.1 4.2

RATIOSGearing (%) 54.7 40.0 53.8

RoaA (%) (2.0) 2.6 5.3

RoaE (%) (5.2) 6.3 13.3

Valuation RatiosPBV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1

PER (x) na 18.2 8.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5 4.1 3.3

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Nature of Operations AICO Africa Limited is an integrated agro-industrial conglomerate. It was incorporated in Zimbabwe on 23 July 2008 and subsequently reverse listed on the ZSE on 1 September 2008, in place of Cottco, through a group restructuring exercise. AICO wholly owns Cottco, which with nine ginneries, constitutes the ginning operations of the Group. AICO holds a 51% stake in SeedCo Limited, which in turn holds a 100% interest in Quton Seed Company, a cotton planting seed production house. The group also has a 49% stake in Olivine Holdings and 75% interest in Scottco. Cottco Cottco’s main line of business is the purchase of seed cotton from farmers and the sale of the lint after processing. Its products include lint, ginned seed, delinted seed and linters. The company has nine ginneries with a capacity of 260,000 tonnes and average age of 20 years. The company’s cotton intake in 2010 was about 98,000 tonnes translating to a market share of 47%. Management at Cottco argue that the group has the capacity to increase its market share to about 52% and can take in more than 400,000 tonnes of cotton under sound economic conditions. Cottco approximately 80,000 small scale farmers in the growing of cotton through an Inputs Credit Scheme that supplies farmers with key inputs such as fertilizer, seeds and chemicals. Under the scheme, Cottco’s technical field staff assists farmers in drawing up their support requirements in advance of the season. Disbursements are made either in the form of cash or inputs such as planting seed, chemicals or fertiliser or a combination of both. Cottco is a dominant player, accounting for 65% of the country’s ginning capacity and 50% of national crop throughput. Major export markets include South Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. Cotton production was insulated from disruptions related to the land reform programme in Zimbabwe, as it is mainly produced by communal farmers. SeedCo SeedCo, which is 51 % owned by AICO, is a developer, grower and marketer of certified seeds. It has a market share of approximately 65% in Zimbabwe, and has operations in Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, DRC, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. Its main products include maize, wheat, barley, cotton, soya, sorghum and groundnut seeds. The company is currently exploring opportunities in West Africa and Ethiopia Annual production currently amounts to between 50,000 and 60,000 MT, and the group’s total capacity is estimated at 80,000 MT. Approximately 70% of SeedCo’s sales volumes is hybrid seed maize. The main competitors in Zimbabwe are Cargill and Panaar. SeedCo’s foremost strength is its research capabilities. There are four research stations in the region, two of which are in Zimbabwe and the other two in Zambia and Kenya.

AICO Top 10 Shareholders1 National Social Security Authority 17.86%

2 Old Mutual Life Assurance 10.88%

3 Kensington Acquisitions Ltd - NNR 9.42%

4 Burket Associates Ltd NNR 7.58%

5 Barclays Zimbabwe Nominees 5.89%

6 Caperal Limited NNR 5.11%

7 National Social Security Authority - WCIF 2.95%

8 Old Mutual Life Assurance Co. Zim Ltd 2.61%

9 Old Mutual Zimbabwe Ltd 2.39%

10 Stanbic Nominees P/L 2.14%


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AICO Cotton Intake

National (Tonnes) Cottco (Tonnes) Market Share

Source: Company Records


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Olivine Holdings AICO acquired a 49% shareholding in Olivine Holdings at a cost of USD 6.8m in 2008. The Industrial Development Corporation of Zimbabwe (IDC) holds the remaining 51%. Olivine manufactures edible oils and fats, bath soaps, candles, baked beans and canned vegetables. It has the capacity to produce 40,000 tonnes of cooking oil, 29,000 tonnes of margarine and baker’s fat and 40,000 tonnes of soaps per annum. Historically, its market share has been around 45%. Operations are large scale and the company has a good reputation for quality. There is strong demand for Olivine’s’ brands in countries such as Botswana, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique. There are also good prospects in South Africa and DRC. The current capacity utilisation is about 20%-30%. Overview of H1 2011 Results Turnaround still on course. Although the seed business has turned the corner, the FMCG and cotton business are still recovering. The main constraint has been the lack of adequate working capital. The group’s revenue line declined 2.6% to USD 53.1m as aggregate sales volumes declined 33% to 55,600 tonnes. The group EBITDA was negated by the FMCG unit which recorded a loss. Overall, the group loss from operations amounted to USD 4.2m worsening from USD 1.2m the prior period. Finance costs remain a major area of concern. Finance charges amounting to USD 8.2m were recorded as a result of high borrowings. The total loss before tax amounted to USD 11.7m (H1 2009: USD 4.5m) while the loss for the period was USD 10.9m translating to a loss per share of US1.89c. The closing cash position was a negative USD 25.4m mainly arising from USD 63.3m utilised in operating activities despite a USD 44.5m cash inflow from financing activities. Operational Review Satisfactory performance from SeedCo. Overall, seed production was up 35% to 44,842 tonnes from the prior period whilst maize seed production was up 83%. Zimbabwe seed production trebled and regional businesses also supported the strong performance. In terms of research, two new seed varieties were introduced, and they are expected to have high yields. The East African SBUs and the Zambian research farm are expected to increase profitability and efficiency. Borrowings for SeedCo totalled USD 24.0m at rates of around 15% for Zimbabwe, 10% from Afreximbank and between 4-5% in the region. Cotton intake increases but market share declines. For the 2009/10 season, the national cotton crop at 262,000 tonnes went up 25% on the prior period, while Cottco’s cotton intake increased 13% to 111,075 tonnes. Ginning is almost complete and disbursements for the forthcoming planting season have started. Cottco’s market share has declined to 42% from around 47% due to the entry of new players. Cottco is targeting an intake of more than 180,000 tonnes in 2011.

Income Statement (USD 000 H1 2010 H1 2011 %∆

Revenue 54,501 53,082 -3%

Operating Profit (1,204) (4,173) -447%

Loss before tax (4,528) (11,706) -159%

Attributable Earnings (4,197) (10,903) -160%

EPS (USc) (0.50) (1.90)

Balance Sheet (USD 000) H1 2010 H1 2011 %∆

Total Assets 262,464 278,726 6%

NAV 87,381 71,861 -18%

Current Assets 129,357 157,044 21%

Current Liabilities 105,369 154,474 47%

Current Ratio 1.23 1.02

Cash flow (USD 000) F2010 H1 2011Operating activities 8,386 (63,337)

Investing activities (5,871) (6,599)

Financing activities 340 44,515

Net Increase in cash 2,855 (25,421)

Cotton , 45%

Seed, 36%

Spinning, 6% FMCG, 13%

Revenue Contribution: H1 2011

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H1 2011:EBITDA Analysis

EBITDA (US$m)-LHS EBITDA Margin-RHS


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Cost management remains key. A review of the cost structure is in progress at Cottco. The company’s staff rationalisation exercise has reached a fairly advanced stage. Management has indicated its intention to reduce staff levels from 500 to about 200 employees as a way to cut costs and reduce the break even point to 80,000 tonnes of cotton a year. The staff rationalisation exercise is expected to cost about USD 2.5m. The Chinese Question. Management believe that Cottco lost as much as 12,000 tonnes of cotton largely as a result of side-marketing. While Cottco was paying US40c/kg to contract farmers, a Chinese firm was paying about US50c/kg for the cotton, without having funded the growing thereof. However, amendments to SI 142 are expected to see a more orderly market compared to the previous years. Strong recovery in lint prices. Generally, prices are set to continue on an upward trend due to reduced stockpile levels at the Liverpool Cotton Exchange. Current prices are already averaging USD 1.62 per pound. However, Cottco did not benefit fully from high global lint prices, given an average price of US 82c per pound. However, the company has started locking in some of its future crop through forward contracts. Strong volume recovery for the FMCG business. FMCG volumes were up 98% from the prior period albeit off a low base. The main constraint hindering operations has been utilities supply and the limited availability of working capital. Capacity utilisation has thus been stagnant at 20%-30%. Shortage of soya beans and competition are also some of the challenges the company is facing. Product rationalisation is currently in progress. Outlook and Strategy Fund raising initiatives on the cards. Management is working on a fund raising initiative for the cotton and FMCG units which should be concluded by the end of Q1 2011. The capital raising will involve an amount of about USD 50.0m and indications are that it would include a rights offer. The company’s borrowings remain large with interest costs expected to reach USD 17.2m (H1 2011: USD 8.2m). Total borrowings are at USD 153.5m at an all in cost of 11.1%. Interest bearing debt as at 30 September 2010 was USD 98.0m. This includes USD 40.0m of core/carryover debt, USD 15.0m of long term interest bearing debt and USD 43.0m of seasonal working capital debt. The capital raising is expected to expunge debt and necessitate the restructuring of AICO’s. In addition, we expect the funding to grow and sustain current operations. As a result, both the Cottco and the FMCG business are expected to return to profitability soon there-after.

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Contribution to PAT: H1 2011

Analysis of Debt USDmCore debt 40.0

Long term interest bearing deb 15.0

Seasonal working capital debt 43.0

Total interest bearing debt 98.0Source: Imara Edwards Securities

Cotton prices have increased 86.86% since Jan 2010. In addition, cotton future prices are trading at historic highs above USD 1.4481 a pound. Prices are expected to continue recovering into the future, backed by improved demand. A 5-year analysis of price trends shows that the price of cotton reached historic highs between 2007 and 2008. However, prices had dipped in 2008 and 2009 as a result of the Global Financial Crisis.

Cotton Prices



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Higher volumes and prices in FY 2011. At SeedCo, production is expected to grow in line with the huge demand emanating from food self sufficiency initiatives in key markets. The expected sales volumes for maize are estimated to be around 60,000 MT in FY 2011. Zimbabwe will contribute 17,000-18,000MT, Zambia 15,000MT, Malawi 6,500 MT, Tanzania 4,000 MT and Kenya 3,500 MT. The average selling price for maize is expected to be about USD 2,000/MT. As for other seeds, volumes are estimated to be 7,000 MT, at average selling prices of USD 1,300/MT. Long term prospects are bullish. While improved sales volumes for the group are expected in FY 2011, the cotton and FMCG units are forecast to post losses. Performance in FY 2011 is expected to be largely supported by SeedCo. SeedCo’s medium to long term target is to generate gross revenues of about USD 100.0m-USD 120.0m per year on net margins of 15-20%. For Cottco, the target is to generate gross revenues of about USD 100.0m per year on net margins of 15-20%. As for the FMCG business, management targets gross revenues of USD 80.0m–USD 120.0m and net margins of 10-15%. Key Investment Attractions

In Zimbabwe, communal small scale farmers have traditionally been the main cotton producers and the bulk of the product has always been destined for export markets. The key issue is that communal farming was not negatively affected by the land reform programme and production has been consistent, fluctuating only due to seasonal conditions. As such, we view the cotton business as low risk relative to other crops;

Firm cotton prices present a significant upside in terms of revenue growth for the cotton business;

AICO’s stake in SeedCo offers further diversification from the cotton industry; and

Earnings from exports hedge the company against any form of local economic downturns.

Sum Of Parts ValuationDivision Shareholding Valuation Approach ValueCottco 100% Segmental Net Asset Value (NAV) $20,188,000SeedCo 51% DCF Valuation (EV of US$305.9m) $167,214,923Olivine 49% Segmental Net Asset Value (NAV) $25,517,000Scottco 75% Segmental Net Asset Value (NAV) $5,765,000Total Value $218,684,923No of Shares 531,065,109 Value Per Share $0.41Source: IES/Company Reports

Note: The NAV values are based on FY 2010 financials

Key Investment Risks There is a risk of dilution given the fact that the

company will be raising USD50.0m (approximately half of its current market capitalisation);

Side marketing can significantly increase AICO’s cost of sales and reduce the company’s margins as bad debts increase;

AICO’s operations are subject to the vagaries of weather conditions such as droughts and floods;

The seasonal nature of the business requires AICO to borrow finances for working capital needs. This presents a risk as cash flows will be strained especially when market interest rates are punitive. Generally, the first half of the year in a cost accumulation period as the group will be financing cotton growers;

There is a risk of debtor defaults, especially when climatic conditions are adverse. This ultimately leads to reduced recoveries and may lower production levels;

The fact that the cotton grower base is communal also implies that it is mostly rural. Farmer productivity levels and yields therefore tend to be lower due to limitation in terms of irrigation and more advanced farming techniques.

Valuation and Recommendation AICO remains undervalued by the market on a sum of parts (S.O.P) basis. AICO’s 51% stake in SeedCo is currently valued at USD 112.8m. This value is in actual fact greater than AICO’s current market capitalisation of USD 106.2m. The market has somewhat missed the cue as it also means that the value of the other businesses (Cottco, Olivine and Scottco) are not being factored in. Using a S.O.P valuation approach, we derived a value of US41c, implying a 105% upside potential to the current price of US20c. However, AICO’s has indicated a significant capital raising exercise of USD 50.0m (approximately half of its current market capitalisation). Accordingly, we recommend investors HOLD pending final details of the recapitalisation exercise.

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AICO - 5 YEAR FINANCIAL SUMMARY

31 MARCH (US$m) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F** 2012F*Balance Sheet

Shareholders' equity 9.1 16.3 5.4 82.6 85.7 82.5 97.4 111.5

Minority interests 7.2 4.2 3.5 17.9 29.6 32.1 42.5 41.3

Total shareholders' equity 15.4 21.3 10.3 136.9 154.9 114.6 155.0 171.5 Interest Bearing Debt 38.4 33.5 7.2 15.4 40.7 57.3 48.0 62.9

Trade creditors 11.3 8.0 1.0 5.6 9.3 40.1 15.7 13.8

Current Liabilities 13.6 44.9 2.7 7.5 17.4 52.8 34.4 31.8

Total Liabilities and equity 67.4 67.2 20.2 159.8 212.9 224.7 231.6 248.4 Fixed Assets 10.7 4.7 6.8 126.1 132.8 116.8 133.8 134.8

Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.7 1.0 0.4

Stock 19.3 11.2 5.7 10.1 29.6 37.4 47.5 45.1

Debtors 0.0 13.7 6.1 20.3 37.0 41.9 34.0 53.4

Cash at bank 11.6 31.4 1.4 1.5 5.7 12.2 11.2 11.8

Current Assets 30.8 62.5 13.4 32.9 78.2 107.1 102.6 119.7

Total Assets 67.4 67.2 20.2 159.8 212.9 224.7 231.6 248.4 Income StatementTurnover 163.8 67.5 47.4 145.0 120.7 162.9 203.6 254.5

EBITDA 33.5 22.5 20.7 74.7 34.7 20.1 37.0 46.2

Associate income - - - 0.0 - - - -

Profit before Tax 4.4 22.5 27.4 61.6 16.8 4.9 10.3 17.9 Taxation (0.3) 0.0 7.5 13.2 2.9 0.3 6.2 4.5

Profit after Tax 4.6 22.5 19.9 46.0 15.3 4.5 7.6 13.4 Minorities 5.2 0.0 1.8 10.7 7.6 6.7 6.5 9.2

Attributable Income (0.6) 31.1 19.8 35.3 7.8 (4.3) 1.1 4.2

Weighted shares (m) 530.51 531.07 531.07 531.07

EPS (USc) (0.10) 5.85 3.73 6.65 1.46 (0.80) 1.10 2.37

DPS (USc) - 1.21 - 5.10 - - - -

NAV per share (USc) 1.71 3.08 1.02 15.55 16.13 15.53 17.30 17.90

EV/EBITDA 4.52 6.74 7.32 2.03 4.36 7.55 4.09 3.28

RoaA (%) (0.79) 46.18 45.36 39.26 4.17 (1.95) 2.59 5.25

RoaE (%) (2.14) 169.06 125.47 48.00 5.33 (5.18) 6.34 13.25

Gearing ratio (%) 295.23 12.71 107.55 16.76 40.83 54.75 40.02 53.83

Interest cover (x) 1.15 n/a n/a 10.25 3.00 1.18 2.05 1.67

MarginsOp margin (%) 20.44 33.28 40.89 47.06 22.28 7.85 16.91 17.06

EBITDA margin (%) 20.44 33.28 43.59 51.53 28.78 12.31 18.16 18.16

PBT margin (%) 2.66 33.31 57.73 42.47 13.96 2.99 5.05 7.03

account due to variability of exchange rates during that period.

** Financial forecasts for 2011 and 2012 have not been adjusted for the capital raising exercise. We will update our model

once full details have been published.

Financial figures for 2005 to 2009 were derived using the Old Mutual Implied Rate (OMIR), which may not reflect a true

10

We view SeedCo as one of the most exciting stocks on the ZSE. From a position of major value destruction inflicted by price controls, dollarization in Zimbabwe has positioned SeedCo on a solid growth trajectory. While production capacity has improved, average seed prices have also increased. The average price of maize seed is around USD 2,000/MT – USD 3,000/MT. Since seed prices are a function of food prices, rising food prices are expected to propel seed prices. The cherry on the top remains the potential for expansion in other regional markets, outside Zimbabwe. Cost Accumulation Period. As expected, SeedCo reported a net loss for the period of USD 1.4m. The first half of the year is usually a cost accumulation period. An operating loss of USD 0.69m was registered in line with the seasonal nature of the company’s business after taking into account operating expenses amounting to USD 9.6m on a gross profit of USD 8.5m. Overall production volumes set to increase in FY2011. Management estimate total volumes of about 48,000- 50, 000MT for maize and 8,000MT for other seeds for FY 2011. Using average prices of US$2,000/MT for maize and USD 1,300/MT for other seeds, our output based model generates a revenue estimate of USD 108.4m for FY 2011. At a margin of 16%, we estimate after tax earnings to be around USD 17.5m. An undisputed Buy. Our DCF valuation technique values the counter at USD 1.59 per share which implies a forward PER of 17.5x and upside to the current price of 38%. For a company experiencing aggressive growth in productive capacity and that possesses strong cash generating capabilities, we believe this valuation to be justified. The company continues to merit our BUY recommendation.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USDm 2010 2011F 2012F

Turnover 77.0 108.4 123.5

EBITDA 17.4 25.8 29.4

Attributable earnings 13.4 17.5 19.9

RATIOS

Gearing (%) 6.2 4.8 3.8

RoA (%) 15.0 16.3 16.2

RoE (%) 19.0 20.5 20.5

Valuation Ratios

PBV (x) 3.9 3.1 2.6

PER (x) 16.5 12.6 11.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 8.4 7.3

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

Significant market share Dependence on regional

Strong brands & Syngenta r/ship governments

Growing presence in SSA Aggressive competition from

Strong Research & Development Panner and imported varities

Hybrids protected by patents Over reliance on maize

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Quintessential recovery play Drought

on Zimbabwe Agric. Sector Lower aid inflows and less

Growth in Angola, Malawi & Tanzanpublic spend on small holder

Gvt Opening up to GMO varieties farmer input schemes

Fertilizer and fuel price shocks

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0SeedCo Limited: Relative Graph

Volume Traded-RHS Rel to Industrial Index-LHS

EQUITY RESEARCH ZIMBABWE AGRICULTURE 11 January 2011

BLOOMBERG: SEEDCO:ZH BUY

Current price (USc) 115.0

Target price (USc) 159.0

Upside/Downside (%) 38.3

Liquidity

Market Cap (USDm) 221.1

Shares (m) 192.3

Free float (%) 29.7

Ave. daily vol ('000) 53.4

Share price performance

6 Months (%) 75.0 53%

12 Months (%) 86.0 34%

52 Week High*(11 Jan 2011) 115.0

52 Week Low*(23 April 2010) 67.0

*Bloomberg

Financials 2010 2011F 2012F

EPS (USc) 7.0 9.1 10.3

DPS (USc) 1.4 2.0 2.3

NAV/share (USc) 29.6 36.7 44.8

EBITDA margin (%) 22.6 23.8 23.8

11

Nature of Operations SeedCo is a developer and marketer of certified seeds. Its vision is to dominate the seed business in Africa. Currently, it has a market share of around 65% in Zimbabwe, and has operations in various countries in Africa including Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, DRC, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. Its regional market share is around 40%, on average. SeedCo’s main products include maize, wheat, barley, cotton, soya, sorghum and groundnut seeds. SeedCo’s business model can be broken down in four parts as follows;

1. Research- SeedCo employs world class breeding systems and utilises vigorous market oriented research and breeding programmes in order to maintain a high rate of product innovation. SeedCo’s foremost strength continues to hinge on its research capabilities. It has four research stations in the region, two of which are in Zimbabwe and the other two in Zambia and Kenya;

2. Seed Production- Seedco relies on an established out grower network to produce seed. SeedCo owns and supplies the parent seed to the out growers. Annual production currently is around 60,000MT, and the group’s total capacity is about 80,000 MT. SeedCo also owns Quton, the only cotton seed producer in Zimbabwe with a production base of about 10,000 MT a year and about 20 seed varieties; Seed production is in three countries (Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia) whilst a sales presence is in five countries. Most of the seed sold in other markets is produced in Zambia.

3. Seed Processing- SeedCo uses world class processing and packaging technologies and all seed is treated at its own plants or leased facilities; and

4. Seed Marketing and Distribution- As a result of a wide local and regional foot print, SeedCo boasts of a strong distribution network and relatively strong brand. The main competitors in Zimbabwe are Cargill and Panaar.

SeedCo Top 10 Shareholders1 AICO Africa Limited 50.57%

2 Old Mutual Life Assurance Co. 10.37%

3 Fed Nominees P/L 2.99%

4 Barclays Nominees P/L - NNR 2.11%

5 Fed Nominees P/L 1.70%

6 Barclays Nominees P/L - NNR 1.61%

7 Local Authorities Pension Fund 1.54%

8 Old Mutual Zim Ltd 1.45%

9 Stanbic Nominees P/L 1.14%

10 Datvest Nominees P/L 0.91%


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SeedCo Market Share

Sales Volumes (Tonnes)-RHS Market Share-LHS

Source: Company Reports


Source: Company Reports

12

Overview of H1 2011 Results Cost Accumulation Period. As expected, SeedCo reported a net loss for the period of USD 1.4m. The first half of the year is usually a cost accumulation period. An operating loss of USD 0.69m (H1 2009: USD 1.4m) was registered in line with the seasonal nature of the company’s business after taking into operating expenses amounting to UD $9.6m on a gross profit of USD 8.5m. Increased production volumes. Revenues were up 58% on H1 2010 to USD 20.4m on the back of a 35% jump in group seed production while maize seed production volumes went up 83%. Maize sales grew by 58% following early seed intake from growers and growing demand from markets requiring the seed for winter plantings. Margins expected to improve. The gross profit margin was maintained at the same levels of around 42% but is expected to improve due to reduced grower costs. The jump in overheads was fuelled by the setting up of new SBUs in Tanzania, pilot production in Ethiopia and the new seed processing and storage facility in Zambia. Gradual growth in asset base. On the balance sheet, the group had total assets amounting to USD 103.2m, after the PPE value went up 8% following the purchase of a new seed processing and storage facility in Zambia. Inventory levels also improved to USD 41.2m from the FY 2009 closing position of USD 14.6m, due to higher seed intake which saw group maize stocks going up by 34,000MT mainly from Zimbabwe. Trade and other receivables of USD 20.0m include USD 2.8m outstanding from the Zimbabwean government. Borrowings amounted to USD 24.0m at rates of around 15% for Zimbabwe, 10% from Afreximbank and between 4-5% in the region. Operational Review Efforts to increase seed production paying off. The group recorded favourable improvements in seed production volumes. Looking at maize, Malawi registered a 24% growth to 5,700MT, Zambia a 29% growth to 16,000MT while in Zimbabwe production volumes trebled to 23,000MT. The group estimates an average growth of about 20% in maize seed production for FY 2011. National demands met in Zimbabwe. SeedCo is lobbying government to lift the export ban on agricultural inputs to enable it to dispose of surplus seed stocked in its warehouses. Total production of seed doubled from 20,000 MT in 2009 to 48,000MT. However, due to lack of purchasing power from farmers, there is a lot of excess seed lying idle. SeedCo is willing to export the excess given that it has met the national requirement. Efforts are being made for the Government to lift the export ban so that the surplus seed can be disposed. SeedCo had supplied 12,500MT into the seed network and approximately 12,000MT is stocked in warehouses.

Income Statement (USD 000 H1 2010 H1 2011 %∆

Revenue 12,904 20,351 58%

Gross profit 5,443 8,504 56%

Operating Profit (1,401) (693)

Loss before tax (1,962) (938)

Attributable Earnings (1,962) (1,431)

EPS (USc) (1.02) (0.74)

Balance Sheet (USD 000) F2010 H1 2011 %∆

Total Assets 89,498 103,182 15%

NAV 56,965 51,620 -9%

Current Assets 52,010 62,577 20%

Current Liabilities 18,625 38,525 107%

Current Ratio 2.79 1.62

Cash flow (USD 000) F2010 H1 2011Operating activities 11,397 (19,850)

Investing activities (2,688) (3,772)

Financing activities (780) (4,389)

Net Increase in cash 7,928 (28,011)

42%

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Gross Margin Overheads Finance charges PAT Margin

SeedCo Margins

H1 2010 H1 2011


13

Outlook and Strategy Future growth prospects also encouraging. The new Tanzania SBUs, SeedCo Tanzania and Quton Tanzania are expected to start contributing to group profits in the short term, with the first locally produced seed deliveries done in the first half. The new Zambian storage facility is expected to increase efficiencies, thus lowering operating costs while in Malawi and Zambia the voucher programmes are expected to attract greater seed volumes. Ethiopia, with an estimated market of 40,000MT against a supply of 5,000MT is expected to be the next big market. While frequent power outages have negatively affected winter cereals crop sales, management is optimistic that overall group profitability is not threatened. Overall production volumes set to increase in FY 2011. Management estimate total volumes of about 48,000-50, 000MT for maize and 8,000MT for other seeds for FY 2011. Using average prices of USD 2,000/MT for maize and USD 1,300/MT for other seeds; our output based model generates a revenue estimate of USD 108.4m for FY 2011. At a margin of 16%, we estimate after tax earnings to be around US$17.5m. Valuation and Recommendation Our DCF valuation technique values the counter at USD 1.59 per share which implies a forward PER of 17.5x and upside to the current price of 38%. For a company experiencing aggressive growth in productive capacity and that possesses strong cash generating capabilities, we believe this valuation to be justified. The company continues to merit our BUY recommendation.

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SeedCo Production Volumes (Tonnes)

Enterprise Value $330,660,318

Less: Interest bearing debt ($23,941,394)

Less: Non-controlling Interest ($2,058,246)

Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents $1,262,220

Implied Equity Value $305,922,898

Number of Shares 192,271,185

Implied Share Price $1.59


Implied Equity Value and Share Price

Technical Indicators

When interpreting Bollinger Bands, the general appreciation is that prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band. At current levels, SeedCo’s share price is still below the middle and upper band, signalling a good time to buy. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which oscillates between 30 and 70 measures the price momentum of a security. RSI is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. If the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. At a reading of 40, SeedCo looks oversold i.e. undervalued by the market.

Valuation Using a DCF Model


Source: Imara Edwards Securities/Meta Stock

14

SEEDCO - 5 YEAR FINANCIAL SUMMARY

31 MARCH (USDm) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012FBalance sheet

Shareholders' equity 12.3 4.3 14.1 29.5 52.0 57.0 72.1 86.1

Minorities 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4

Total shareholders' equit 14.3 6.4 19.5 40.5 68.9 70.6 85.6 97.0

Interest Bearing Debt 11.4 12.5 16.3 13.5 6.0 4.4 4.1 3.7

Trade creditors 6.1 2.1 1.3 1.6 3.5 5.2 6.9 8.3

Current Liabilities 7.5 6.7 3.5 4.5 10.6 14.5 19.7 22.4

Total Liabilities and equi 33.2 25.7 39.3 58.5 85.5 89.5 109.3 123.2

Fixed Assets 8.0 3.9 16.7 30.1 46.6 37.0 43.0 52.0

Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6

Stock - Trade net 9.2 7.4 13.8 11.0 11.9 14.6 19.4 22.6

Debtors - other 8.4 8.3 7.1 12.9 17.2 2.6 2.8 3.3

Cash at bank 4.9 3.5 0.2 1.3 3.5 9.6 10.1 12.6

Current Assets 25.2 21.7 22.6 28.1 37.7 51.3 64.9 76.6

Total Assets 33.2 25.7 39.3 58.5 85.5 89.5 107.6 123.2

Income Statement

Turnover 53.3 33.8 39.2 52.8 53.9 77.0 108.4 123.5

COS 28.0 19.8 15.9 27.1 26.2 43.6 59.6 67.9

Gross Profit 25.3 14.1 23.4 25.8 27.6 33.4 48.8 55.6

EBITDA 11.4 14.8 12.9 15.0 12.9 17.4 25.8 29.4

Pre-interest profit 11.2 13.6 10.5 14.3 12.1 16.4 24.7 28.1

Pre-tax Profit 11.5 11.9 7.8 11.6 16.7 17.9 26.2 29.7

Taxation 2.4 2.1 3.1 2.4 2.9 4.5 8.7 9.8

Attributable Income 8.7 9.4 3.8 8.7 12.9 13.4 17.5 19.9

Weighted shares (m) 191.2 191.2 191.2 191.2

EPS (USc) 4.5 4.9 2.0 4.5 6.7 7.0 9.1 10.3

Cash EPS (USc) 4.6 6.1 3.3 5.3 7.7 7.5 11.1 12.7

DPS (USc) - - - - - 1.4 2.0 2.3

NAV per share (USc) 6.4 2.2 7.3 15.4 27.1 29.6 36.7 44.8

Growth Ratios

Sales growth (%) 34.2 (36.4) 15.9 34.6 2.0 42.9 32.9 16.8

Pre-interest profit growth 21.0 40.1 26.7 27.1 22.4 36.1 65.9 23.3

Earnings growth (%) (30.9) 7.5 (59.0) 125.7 49.4 3.6 45.5 24.0

Margins

Gross margin (%) 47.5 41.6 59.6 48.8 51.3 43.3 45.0 45.0

EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 43.8 32.8 28.3 24.0 22.6 23.8 23.8

Pre-interest margin (%) 21.0 40.1 26.7 27.1 22.4 21.4 22.8 22.8

Interest cover (times) 6.2 7.6 5.3 3.9 19.4 29.9 26.2 25.1

Pre-tax profit margin (%) 21.7 35.1 19.9 22.0 31.1 23.2 24.2 30.3

account due to variability of exchange rates during that period.

Note: Financial figures for 2005 to 2009 were derived using the Old Mutual Implied Rate (OMIR), which may not reflect s true

15

Notes

Capital Securities Botswana Ground Floor, Exchange House Block 6, Plot 64511 Fairgrounds, Gaborone, Botswana Tel: + 267 318 8886 Cell: + 267 7 132 1421 / 7 162 4390

Imara Africa Securities Block A, Unit 3 Millennium Office Park Kgale Hill Gaborone Botswana Tel:+267 3188 710 Fax:+267 3191 767 Imara Securities Angola SCVM Limitada Rua Rainha Ginga 74, 13th Floor, Luanda, Angola Tel: +244 222 372 029/36 Fax: +244 222 332 340

Imara Edwards Securities (Pvt.) Ltd. Tendeseka Office Park 1st Floor Block 2 Samora Machel Ave. Harare, Zimbabwe Tel: +2634 790590 Fax:+2634 791435 4 Fanum House Cnr. Leopold Takawira/Josiah Tongogara Street Bulawayo Tel: +263 9 74554 Fax: +263 9 66024 Members of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange

Imara S P Reid (Pty) Ltd Imara House 257 Oxford Road Illovo 2146 P.O. Box 969 Johannesburg 2000 South Africa Tel: +27 11 550 6200 Fax: +27 11 550 6295 Member of the JSE Securities Exchange

Namibia Equity Brokers (Pty) Ltd 1st Floor City Centre Building, West Wing Levinson Arcade Windhoek Namibia Tel: +264 61 246666 Fax: +264 61256789 Member of the Namibia Stock Exchange

Stockbrokers Malawi Ltd Able House Cnr. Hanover Avenue/ Chilembwe Road Blantyre Malawi Tel: +265 1822803 Member of the Malawi Stock Exchange

Stockbrokers Zambia Ltd 2nd Floor (Wing), Stock Exchange Building Central Park Corner Church/Cairo Roads P O Box 38956 Lusaka Zambia Tel: +260 211232455 Fax: +260 211224055 Member of the Zambia Stock Exchange

This research report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The securities referred to in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. The information contained in this report has been compiled by Imara Edwards Securities (Pvt.) Ltd. (“Imara”) from sources that it believes to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given by Imara or any other person as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report are (unless otherwise indicated) entirely those of Imara as of the date of this report only and are subject to change without notice. Neither Imara nor any other member of the Imara Group of companies including their respective associated companies (together “Group Companies”), nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Each recipient of this report shall be solely responsible for making its own independent investigation of the business, financial condition and prospects of companies referred to in this report. Group Companies and their respective affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time (i) have positions in, and buy or sell, the securities of companies referred to in this report (or in related investments); (ii) have a consulting, investment banking or broking relationship with a company referred to in this report; and (iii) to the extent permitted under applicable law, have acted upon or used the information contained or referred to in this report including effecting transactions for their own account in an investment (or related investment) in respect of any company referred to in this report, prior to or immediately following its publication. This report may not have been distributed to all recipients at the same time. This report is issued only for the information of and may only be distributed to professional investors (or, in the case of the United States, major US institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934) and dealers in securities and must not be copied, published or reproduced or redistributed (in whole or in part) by any recipient for any purpose. © Imara Edwards Securities 2011

AICO SeedCo Report

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