AI, now and future Wei Xu Baidu Baidu 1
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AI, now and future
Wei Xu
Baidu
Baidu 1
Baidu 2
1. Now
2. Future
AI wave
Baidu 3
AI job market
Baidu 4
AI Job opening change in China (%)
Data source: zhaopin.com
Figure credit: zhaopin.com
Shares of US Jobs Requiring AI Skills
Data source: indeed.com
Figure credit: AI Index 2017 Annual Report
Driving forces for the recent AI progress
Baidu 5
Big data
Computation power
Deep learning
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Accu
racy
Data size
Traditional ML
Deep learning
Deep learning revolution
Baidu 6
Shallow neural net Deep neural net
Speech recognition
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%E
r
r
o
r
R
a
t
e
Chinse speech recognition for
voice search
Image recognition
Baidu 8
First deep learning model
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Human 2015 2016 2017
ImageNet classification error
Image recognition
Japanese cherry Sushi Ferrari California
Echeveria Mebina Mapo tofu Toyota land cruiser
Baidu 9
Face recognition from parental faces
Baidu 10
Face recognition across time - finding lost
person
Baidu 11
4 year old 10 year old
Generating faces
Baidu 12
Karas et. al. 2018
Medical image analysis: skin cancer
Baidu 13
Figure from Esteva et al.
Document analysis
Theme tag
Technology 0.93
AI 0.95
Topic tag
Baidu create 0.95
Entity tag
Baidu 0.9
Robin Li 0.9
Qi Lu 0.9
DuerOS 0.75
Apollo 0.7
Tech
Speech tech
Baidu
HCI
L4
L3
Car industry
New energy vehicle
Developer
Autonomous driving
North highway 5
AI
Apollo
Lidar
Tesla
AI
Topic tag
Entity tag
Theme tag Baidu AI dev conference
Graph
Baidu held its first AI developer
conference
Creating the most complete AI open
eco-system
Jul. 5, Baidu AI developer conference
(Baidu Create 2017) was held in Beijing
national conference center. Baidu
announced its complete AI eco-system
strategy to 5000 developers and partners.
Baidu founder, board president and CEO
Robin Li said, “AI is the destined future,
openness will benefit more people.
Baidu 14
OCR translation
Conversation translation
Text translation
Machine Translation
Baidu 15
Simultaneous translation
Baidu 16
Reading comprehension – single document
Baidu 17
The Stanford Question Answering Dataset
Reading comprehension: multi-document
Baidu 18
Microsoft Machine Reading Comprehension Dataset (MS MARCO)
Board games
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Google DeepMind: AlphaZero
AI applications at Baidu
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What tasks are suitable for AI?
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Criteria ✔ ✘
Well defined input-output mapping Predict loan default Summarize
document
Large data sets Predict ad click Detect intrusion
Clearly definable goals and metrics Play board games Education
No long chains of reasoning using
diverse background knowledge or
common sense
Play video shooting
game
Dialog
No need for detailed explanation Recognize character Diagnose disease
A tolerance for error Recommend product Drive
No specialized dexterity, physical
skills, or mobility required
Manufacturing robot
for specific task
Household robot
Brynjolfsson et. al. 2017
Baidu 22
1. Now
2. Future
Near term impact: more routine jobs will be
automated
Baidu 23
Near term impact: job displacement
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Source: McKinsey
Occupations requiring higher levels of education and
experience have lower automation potential
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Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; O*Net; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Long term impact: human level intelligence
Baidu 26
Muller et al, 2014
Long term impact: good or bad?
Baidu 27
Muller et al, 2014
Baidu 28
Thank you!
Baidu 29
Thank you!
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