Ahmad Fairudz Jamaluddin Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation The weather and climate of Malaysia.

Ahmad Fairudz JamaluddinMalaysian Meteorological Department

Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation

The weather and climate The weather and climate of Malaysiaof Malaysia

OutlineOutline

General Climate of Malaysia

Climate Long Term Mean of Malaysia

Observed Trend of Climate Extremes in Malaysia

How Regional Climate Model can enhance MMD’s

services Seasonal / Monthly Weather Outlook

Drought Monitoring

Fire Danger Rating

Summary

GENERAL CLIMATE OF GENERAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIAMALAYSIA

Tropical maritime climate with:

- uniform temperature

- high humidity

- rainfall throughout the year

The seasons:-

- Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mar)

- Southwest Monsoon (June – August)

- Two Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sept-Oct)

Severe Weather in Malaysia

Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mac)

Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)

Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)

FloodFlood

HazeHaze

Flash FloodFlash Flood

Strong Wind and Rough Sea

50oE 100oE 150oE 160oW 110oW 60oW

50oS

25oS

0o

25oN

50oN SWM (Late May to Sept)

NEM (Nov to March)

INDIAN OCEAN

PACIFC OCEAN

Monsoon & Dominant Modes of Climate Variability

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ---- Interannual oscillation (2-7 years)Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) – intra-seasonal oscillation (20-60 days)

Climate Long Term Meanin Malaysia

Long Term Mean Monthly Rainfall Over PM

JANUARYDECEMBERNOVEMBER

JUNE JULY AUGUST

> 500

Southwest Monsoon

Northeast Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon

Northeast Monsoon

Mean Monthly Average Temperature Over PM

Southwest Monsoon

Northeast Monsoon

Mean Monthly Average RH Over PM

NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

0 – 50 50 – 100100 – 150150 – 200200 – 250250 – 300300 – 400400 – 500> 500

JUNE JULY AUGUST

Long Term Mean Monthly Rainfall Over EM

DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY

Northeast Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon

Mean Monthly Average TemperatureOver EM

Northeast Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon

Observed Trends of ClimateExtremes in Malaysia

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) for 2 Hour Maximum Rainfall. Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

CONVECTIVE TIME SCALE Trends in 2 hour maximum rainfall

(Diong et al.; MMD)

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) during Southwest Monsoon (JJA). Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

SEASONAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall

(Diong et al.; MMD)

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) during Northeast Monsoon (DJF). Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

SEASONAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall

(Diong et al.; MMD)

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) & Intensity (red) for annual rainfall. Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

ANNUAL TIME SCALE Trends in heavy rainfall

(Diong et al.; MMD)

In general the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events are on the rise.

The SW monsoon season is becoming wetter but at the same time prolonged dry spells are more frequent.

During the NE monsoon season the extreme rainfall events associated with the monsoon surges and other synoptic features are on the rise.

Notable increasing trend in the annual precipitation is observed in EM with both the monsoon seasons possibly contributing to this trend.

How Regional Climate Modelcan enhance MMD’s services

Seasonal / Monthly Weather Outlook

Climate Variability

Moisture convergence (mm/day)

Moisture flux during JJA (1979-2000)

Indian Ocean as source of moisture for PM during JJA. South China Sea / Pacific Ocean as source of moisture for Malaysian region during DJF

Indian Ocean experience warming SST relatively faster than other oceans including Pacific Ocean

Tangang et. al. (2007)

How this SST warming over Indian and Pacific Ocean modulate/change rainfall distribution and extreme weather event over the Malaysian region?

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)Composite Anomalous OLR, Mode -ve IOD years, Mode +ve IOD years during JJA

Anomalous OLR (W/m2)

During Mode –ve IOD, Malaysian region experience neutral condition compare to wetter condition over the South of Sumatra during JJA

During Mode +ve IOD, Malaysian region experience dry condition over the south of PM and Sarawak during JJA. However, south of Sumatra and Borneo experience driest condition during the period.

Wet condition over south of PM and Sarawak during La-Nina. Dry condition over south of PM, Sarawak and south of Sabah during El-Nino (JJA)

El-Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO)

Composite Anomalous OLR & La-Nina years during JJA

Anomalous OLR (W/m2) Anomalous OLR (W/m2)

Composite Anomalous OLR & El-Nino years during JJA

Conventional El Nino

El Nino Modoki

Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation

(Ester Salimun, UKM)

Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation, Anomalous wind at 850hPa

Conventional ENSO vs ENSO-Modoki

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation & wind at 925hPa during JJA

(Fairudz et. al., MMD)

Phase 1 + 2 Phase 3 + 4 Phase 5 + 6 Phase 7 + 8

Afternoon(15 – 20 MST)

Evening(21 – 02 MST)

Diurnal Rainfall and MJO during JJA

Composites of MJO Phases, standardized anomalous precipitation during afternoon and evening over PM

(Fairudz et. al., MMD)

Left panel: Composite of MJO’s phase, anomalous mslp (contour), anomalous RH (value) and direction of surface wind (vector). Right panel: Composite of MJO’s phase, anomalous surface divergence, anomalous surface temperature.

LOCAL ATMOSPERIC CIRCULATION

Phase 1 + 2 Afternoon (15 – 20 MST) Stesen Phase

1+2Phase

3+4Phase

5+6

Bayan Lepas 75.12 91.56 86.12

KLIA 75.83 59.51 106.5

CIN (J/kg) at 20 MST

Relatively low CIN over the west cost of PM during phase 1+2 MJO. Relatively high CAPE over east coast of PM during phase 3+4 MJO.

H

L

Stesen Phase 1+2

Phase 3+4

Phase 5+6

Kuantan 1972.3 2784.1 2523.6

CAPE (J/kg) at 20 MST

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation & wind at 925hPa during DJF

Statistical downscaling from JMA CGCM (three month lead time and 51 members)

Method of “double leave one-out cross-validation” with multiple size of optimal window is used to validate the model at each meteorological station. The highest correlation coefficient with station's precipitation was selected as predictor.

SON 2011

Probabilistic forecastfor SON 2011

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

(Yip et. al., MMD)

NDJ NDJ

ECMWF

JAMSTEC

GCM’S SEASONAL PRODUCTS

Rainfall Outlook for November 2012

Meteorology Drought Monitoring

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4

KotaKinabalu

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4Sitiawan

V alu

eSP

I

Month

Meteorology Drought Event in Malaysia based on SPI Index

Category Number of Events

Percentage

Drought Event 14 46.6%

No Drought Event

16 53.3%

Event Number of Events

Percentage

El-Nino 10 71.4%

La-Nina 2 14.2%

Others 2 14.2%

Year

(Fatin Nurashikin, UKM)Latest 3-month SPI Index less than -1.0

LEVEL CONDITIONS

WARNINGLatest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than - 1.5 and the previous drought level was catogorized as ALERT.

DANGER Latest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than – 2.0 and the previous drought level was catogorized as WARNING.

& Latest 3-month SPI less than -1.5

Meteorology Drought Monitoring

Fire Danger Rating National & ASEAN Country

(currently 3 days forecast (WRF) with 4km resolution for Malaysia &

36km for SEA region

Situation of sudden mortality of peatswamp trees (too much water over the area –

La-Nina 2011)

Situation of sudden mortality of peatswamp trees (too much water over the area –

La-Nina 2011)

Normal peatswamp (Neutral ENSO - August 2012)

North Selangor PSF

Raja Musa FR

Sungai Karang FR

Selangor

Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89 kiri terusan

Forest fires at RMFR – August 2012 ( 407 ha)

Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89

Forest fires at RMFR – 2012 ( 407 ha)

6 ha

60 ha

341 ha

18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29

FFMC code during 18 – 29 August 2012

18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25

27 2826 29

DMC code during 18 – 29 August 2012

Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)

Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)

ISI : 1 – 10 Jun 2012 ISI extreme on 4 June 2012, same day burning start (rain on 9 June 2012)

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

ISI code during 1 – 10 June 2012

ISI : 21 – 30 June 2012 ISI extreme throughout the burning period except on a few days due to rain (drastic change)

21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

ISI code during 21 – 30 June 2012

SummarySummary

In general, the intensity and frequency of extreme

rainfall events are on rise

Climate variability over the Malaysian region is strongly

influence by monsoon, ENSO, IOD and MJO

Malaysian forestry and water resources are too

sensitive to any changes/shifting of the climate

Reliable RCMs are crucial and important to enhance

MMD’s services such as accurate seasonal/monthly

weather outlook, drought monitoring and fire danger

rating

Agriculture; Agro-Climatological Zonation

Annual Average Rainfall

Annual Average Temperatures

Soil Suitability Sub-Classes Classification by Terrain Limits: (Class 3 or less)

where;

2000-3000mm 24°C to 28°

Suitable : 1n, 2d and 2dtClass 1Class 2Class 3

0-2°>2-6°>6-12°

Marginal: 2DGn, 2Gn, 2Dt(G), 2Gnt, 2cGnt, 2cd, 2cdGnt, 2dnT, 2dnt, 2nT, 2nT(G), 3D(nt), 3G, 3G(cn), 3G(cnT), 3G(n),3G(nt), 3G(t), 3R(n), 3d, 3d(n), 3d(t), 3dt, 3t(G), 4dt, 4dt(n)

Oil Palm Cultivation Areas for Johore Suitability Areas (Marginal) for Oil Palm Cultivation in Johore

Oil Palm Planted on Suitability (Marginal) land in Johor

StatesState Areas

(ha)Actual

Planted (A) % Planted Suitable (S) % Suitable

Suitable not being Planted

Johor 1,891,510 829,036 43.8 41,761 2.2 22,578

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous OLR, Anomalous Geopotential Height at 500hPa & wind at 850hPa during JJA