AGRICULTURAL POLICY INSTABILITY IN NIGERIA: THE RICE FARMERS’ EVER ADJUSTING PRODUCTION PROCESS By Umeh, J.C. Consultancy Marketing specialist, National.

AGRICULTURAL POLICY INSTABILITY IN NIGERIA: THE RICE FARMERS EVER ADJUSTING PRODUCTION PROCESS By Umeh, J.C. Consultancy Marketing specialist, National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS), Maitama, Abuja, Nigeria. Ingawa, S.A. National Project Coordinator, National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS), Abuja, Nigeria. Oyebanji, O.O. Annex I Leader, National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS), Abuja, Nigeria. Adesola, O.A. Annes IV Leader, National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS), Abuja, Nigeria and Director Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR)

PRESENTATION LAY OUT A. INTRODUCTION - The potentials for Rice enterprise in Nigeria - Favorable ecologies for rice cultivation - Agricultural policy of Nigeria, problems statement, objectives and methodology. - The data/paucity of rice enterprise data sources B. Results and Discussions C. Conclusions and Recommendations

1.GROWING PER CAPITA RICE CONSUMATION IN NIGERIA - 1960 3 kg per capita - 1980 18 kg per capita - 1990 22 leg per capital THE POTENTIALS FOR RICE ENTERPRISE IN NIGERIA

2. FAVOURABLE ECOLOGIES FOR RICE CULTIVATION Upland irrigated Upland irrigated Inland valley swamp Inland valley swamp Deep water/floating and tidal mangrove swamp Deep water/floating and tidal mangrove swamp 4.6 million hectares for rice production in Nigeria 4.6 million hectares for rice production in Nigeria Only 1.7 million ha only put to rice cultivation Only 1.7 million ha only put to rice cultivation

3. AGRICULTUAL POLICY OF NIGERIA AND PROBLEM STATEMENT Self sufficient in rice production for home and export Self sufficient in rice production for home and export Agricultural policy launched in 1989 for self sufficiency in rice production in ten years time Agricultural policy launched in 1989 for self sufficiency in rice production in ten years time In 1999, 812, 452 MT rice import about 10 years after the Nigeria government launching of the agricultural police document In 1999, 812, 452 MT rice import about 10 years after the Nigeria government launching of the agricultural police document Conflict and contradiction therefore exist in the rice industry. Conflict and contradiction therefore exist in the rice industry.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY 1. To use secondary data of over 30 years and inferential statistics to analyze the constrained growth of rice enterprise in Nigeria. 2. To quantify the impact of inconsistency government policy on the growth and development of rice enterprise in Nigeria. 3. To make recommendations on some possible way forward.

Table 1 shows the correlation coefficients of pairs of data from various sources Large negative valves are seen calling for concern for the quality of data. Large negative valves are seen calling for concern for the quality of data. This problem has been with us since the 1980s (Idachaba, 1984). This problem has been with us since the 1980s (Idachaba, 1984).

1.THE DATA/PAUCITY OF RICE ENTERPRISE DATA FROM FOUR DATA SOURCES The project co-ordination unit/ADP The project co-ordination unit/ADP The Central Bank of Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria The FAO yearbook The FAO yearbook The three pre-shipment companies Societ General de Surveillance, SWEDE control inter TEK and COTECNA inspection Ltd Nigeria. The three pre-shipment companies Societ General de Surveillance, SWEDE control inter TEK and COTECNA inspection Ltd Nigeria.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Data for over 34 years were generated and used for this work Data for over 34 years were generated and used for this work Figures 1 and 4 show import rice volume and domestic rice yield trends of 34 years, 1970-2004 Figures 1 and 4 show import rice volume and domestic rice yield trends of 34 years, 1970-2004 Inference. Import volume continued to increase while yield continued in a downward trend. Inference. Import volume continued to increase while yield continued in a downward trend. Correlation coefficient for the variables is 0.618 significant at 1% level. Correlation coefficient for the variables is 0.618 significant at 1% level. Rice import depresses domestic rice productivity Rice import depresses domestic rice productivity Oxfam, British based NGO recently indicated the dumping of cheap American rice on less developed countries of the world Oxfam, British based NGO recently indicated the dumping of cheap American rice on less developed countries of the world US gives $ 3 billion in subsidies to prop up rice crop that costs $ 1.8 billion to grow US gives $ 3 billion in subsidies to prop up rice crop that costs $ 1.8 billion to grow Two key factors that may aid Nigerian rice enterprise apart from problem of dumping of foreign rice, are extension and fertilizer availability Two key factors that may aid Nigerian rice enterprise apart from problem of dumping of foreign rice, are extension and fertilizer availability

FIGURES 2 AND 4 SHOW IMPORT RICE PRICE AND RICE YIELD. BOTH HAVE DOWNWARD TRENDS Imported rice continued to come at cheaper rate discouraging domestic rice production Imported rice continued to come at cheaper rate discouraging domestic rice production Correlation coefficient of the two variables is o.713, it is positive and significant at 1% level Correlation coefficient of the two variables is o.713, it is positive and significant at 1% level Both variables move in the same direction as shown in Figure 6. Both variables move in the same direction as shown in Figure 6. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient of prices of both domestically produced rice and imported rice was computed to be _- 0.563, It is negative and significant. For example imported rice price (figure 2) continued to decrease after the peak about 1976. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient of prices of both domestically produced rice and imported rice was computed to be _- 0.563, It is negative and significant. For example imported rice price (figure 2) continued to decrease after the peak about 1976. Given the cheap, well packaged foreign rice, Nigerian consumer rightly regarded poorly packaged, poorly processed local rice an expensive commodity. Given the cheap, well packaged foreign rice, Nigerian consumer rightly regarded poorly packaged, poorly processed local rice an expensive commodity.

Figure 3 shows hectarage trend of domestically produced rice: 1970 2004. Trend is increasing from the low level in 1970. Trend is increasing from the low level in 1970. It shows the good intension of the Nigerian rice farmer to respond to the rising preference of Nigerian consumer in favor of rice. It shows the good intension of the Nigerian rice farmer to respond to the rising preference of Nigerian consumer in favor of rice. This world have triggered off growth and development of rice enterprise in Nigeria leading to: This world have triggered off growth and development of rice enterprise in Nigeria leading to: Employment generation Employment generation Boosting of income Boosting of income Improvement of life quality Improvement of life quality Food security Food security Foreign exchange earning Foreign exchange earning

These benefits eluded the Nigerian farmers and Nigeria as a whole as a result of: These benefits eluded the Nigerian farmers and Nigeria as a whole as a result of: - Oscillating import tariffs and import restrictions of foreign rice (1986 1990s rice import was illegal; 1995 a tariff of 100% was placed; 1996 tariff of 50 % was placed in 2001 tariff was increased to 85 %) - Poor extension activity - Scarcity of fertilizer etc

Coefficient of variation of rice hectarage in Nigeria 1970 2004 was large (79.58%). For about 34 years there was violent variation in rice hectarage cultivation in Nigeria. It shows the continuous rice production adjustment process by Nigerian rice farmers as government put up various phases of policy intervention in the industry.

Few more policy implications of the 35 year rice enterprise data analysis. Few more policy implications of the 35 year rice enterprise data analysis. Nigerian rice farmers demonstration of response readiness for the huge tastes and preferences of Nigerian consumers for rice Nigerian rice farmers demonstration of response readiness for the huge tastes and preferences of Nigerian consumers for rice This is quantified in the large hecatarage of cultivable land for rice. This is quantified in the large hecatarage of cultivable land for rice. It is also shown in the huge rice output when government policy titled in favor of domestic rice production It is also shown in the huge rice output when government policy titled in favor of domestic rice production Rice production, processing and marketing involve long chain of activities. Rice production, processing and marketing involve long chain of activities. Land preparation, broadcasting of seed, fertilizer application, weeding etc Land preparation, broadcasting of seed, fertilizer application, weeding etc Women and children take part in many of the activities and they are the vulnerable group of the society in terms of income, food security etc. Women and children take part in many of the activities and they are the vulnerable group of the society in terms of income, food security etc. Development of rice program in Nigeria may therefore go a long way fighting hunger and poverty Development of rice program in Nigeria may therefore go a long way fighting hunger and poverty Efforts of the Nigerian government to develop rice enterprise include: Efforts of the Nigerian government to develop rice enterprise include: - NAPPP National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP) 1972. It was to design, test and transfer technology package for accelerated production of five crops rice, maize, sorghum, millet and wheat. The efforts failed due to funding and policy reversal.

The Presidential Rice Production Programme of President Shagari regime of the early 1980s. This failed again as a result of military over-throw. Next and a more current one is the Presidential Initiative on Rice: This was launched in June 2005 in Abuja. For this programme, the New Rice for Africa (NERICA) developed by WARDA is to propel rice enterprise development in Nigeria with the full complement of other inputs (Fertilizer, extension etc) to ensure that rice plays the expected role in the economic development of both Nigeria and the sub-region. Properties of NERICA: Early maturing; high yielding disease and pest resistant, acid tolerant, etc.

Conclusion and Recommendations Given the huge tastes and preferences which the Nigerian population has shown in favor of rice commodity, the continuous rice importation into Nigeria could be likened to throwing away a golden opportunity to revive the Nigerian agriculture through the rice industry. All the basic requirements which set an enterprise on a path of growth and development are complete in the rice industry.

There is the huge demand, there is equally good internal and external markets and there is also a good ecology for the crop. Another favorable conditions for rice as a crop that may revolutionalize not only the agricultural industry but the whole Nigerian economy include the long chain of economic activities associated with rice production, processing and marketing and also be ready employment for the very vulnerable segments of the Nigerian population women and children.

Another favorable conditions for rice as a crop that may revolutionalize not only the agricultural industry but the whole Nigerian economy include the long chain of economic activities associated with rice production, processing and marketing and also be ready employment for the very vulnerable segments of the Nigerian population women and children.

Recommendations The following recommendation emerge from the analysis carried out in this study. 1. The Government should consistently purse the policy of self sufficiency in food crop production in particular with reference to those food commodities which consume considerable shares of Nigerian foreign exchange and which Nigeria has comparative advantage for their production, rice is therefore the crop of choice within this context. 2. The Presidential Initiative on Rice which uses the NERICA should be consistently supported by the Government

3. Appropriate tariff regime, rather than an out right ban on rice import should be evolved to protect the domestic rice enterprise. 4.The Federal Government of Nigeria Fertilizer Market Stabilization Programme which ensures availability of the input to the Nigerian farmers should be pursued very diligently.

5.The extension activities of the ADPS which guide both the technique and material technologies used by the farmers should be revived. 6.The long chain of activities in the rice enterprise though useful as a source of employment and income for the vulnerable segment of the Nigeria society by may be counter r productive as the rice enterprise grows; the Government should provide money to both the Universities and Research Institutes for research on some labour sowing device for rice processing.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, GOD HAS GIVEN US A CROP (RICE) WITH WHICH TO REVOLUTIONALISE OUR ECONOMY, LET US NOT THROW AWAY THIS OPPORTUNITY. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION.

AGRICULTURAL POLICY INSTABILITY IN NIGERIA: THE RICE FARMERS’ EVER ADJUSTING PRODUCTION PROCESS By Umeh, J.C. Consultancy Marketing specialist, National.

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