Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN “CLIMATE CHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT IN EGYPT“ PROJECT Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Mahmoud Medany The Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate The Agricultural Research Center MALR http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
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Agricultural Activities In “Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt“ project
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Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN
“CLIMATE CHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT IN EGYPT“ PROJECT
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Mahmoud MedanyThe Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands, People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services: A Web-based Geospatial Analysis. Available online at: http://www.wri.org.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Adaptation plans to climate change become one of the top priorities of sustainable development of agricultural sector in Egypt.
Adaptation of agricultural sector should be integrated, sustainable, economic efficient, continues and long term plans.
The complicated relationships associated within the agriculture sector components, and between the agriculture sector and the other sectors, amplify the difficulties of adaptation planning.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Stress tolerant cultivars, crops and improved crop patternChanging sowing dates.Improved on-farm irrigation management.Improving drainage systems.Integrated and improved crop-management.Financial and insurance systems.Capacity building and public awareness.Institutional framework.New land.
Adaptation priorities
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
1. Identifying the pilot locations of the study, representing different agriculture systems in Egypt.
2. Collecting historical data of weather conditions, soil and water resources of the locations of the study.
3. Tolerated varieties and crop selection , which differnt treatments of heat, water and salinity stresses.
4. Conducting two seasons' field studies to evaluate the selected varieties.
5. Analyzing the results of crops field-studies.
6. Field-studies by evaluation by DSSAT simulation. http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
Level of Sensitivity
• Parameters which are sensitive and very sensitive are (heat, water and salinity stresses).
– Soil: parameters which are related to soil water availability
– Crops: Phenology parameters, in particular for active vegetative phase, seed filling phase and leaves growth, size of leaves (LAI)
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Crop pattern scenarios under climate change
1. Identifying the current major crop pattern from historical agricultural statistics.
2. Identify the key parameters and forces driving the annual changes in crop pattern.
3. Study the trend of change in cultivated area by using remote sensing techniques.
4. Prepare the data sets of future climate conditions by using GCM and/ or RCM future climate data sets.
5. Prepare the data sets required to crop simulation model.
6. Conduct simulation experiments.
7. Propose and evaluate a number of crop patterns by using numerical and analytical analysis methods. http://www.mahmoudmedany.com
knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties
1. Identifying the stakeholders groups.
2. Establishment of indicated contacts to stakeholders groups.
3. Establish oriented information packages to different targeted stakeholders groups.
4. Identifying the suitable dissemination channels and means
5. Conducting workshops, training programs and field days.
6. Create a dialogue on what if/so what
Web Site: http://www.clac.edu.egWeather Data:
• Normal• Daily data
• Climate digital maps
• Water requirements
• AGR. Application:• Chilling requirements
• Heat Units• Math. Models
• Climate change
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Plan of work - The programme will be executed in two seasons along three years.
- Two years for field testing starts from summer season 2009.
- Third year will be specified for analyzing the field experiments results and final report writing.
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- Locations cover the three agro climatic zones of Egypt:
(Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt)
and two soil types: old and new land.
Three irrigation levels (2 DI = 60 & 80% of ET, and the control)
Winter season.: wheat, faba bean, berseem clover
Summer season: Corn, rice, sunflower, peanut.
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Summer Season 2009
Corn:- Three Locations in old land only:
EL-Gemmeiza, Sids, Mallawy
Preliminary 9 entries +1 check = 10
Advanced 11entries + 1 check = 12
Total number of trials 6
+ DI treatments
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Rice:
- Four location in old land only EL- Gemmeiza, Sakha, Zarzoura, EL-SerwPreliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12Total number of trials 8