AgITO - Futures Research

AGRICULTURE ITOFUTURES RESEARCH ANNUAL REPORT 2009

This report represents the first year of ‘Futures Research’ environmental scanning at Agriculture ITO. We are very pleased to present this document as a summary of the major emerging trends that affect our industries: water, dairy, meat and wool, pork, poultry, agrichemicals and rural servicing.

We have not only looked at future possibilities and developments. In this research we have focused on the consequences for the future needs for development of human capability within our industries. What opportunities for increased productivity do these trends bring? What challenges to viability do they present? And what education needs will result?

The key words and phrases we have noticed appearing over and over again throughout 2009 are traceability, reputation, digital learning and market access. These phrases are expanded on in this report, and implications for New Zealand and industry training are identified. The report is structured to describe and explain each emerging theme for New Zealand, and then to explore the ‘so what’ for our industries. This report is not about the ‘here and now’; it looks at the possibilities that will affect our future.

This Futures Research project is an ongoing scan of media output, conference talks, government reports and other research. The database formed from this scanning is growing in depth and richness each quarter and we have already obtained significant benefit from mining this resource.

The messages that this report contains have relevance beyond the education sector, and therefore it is intended for wide circulation and discussion, so please share it around. We hope that you enjoy and benefit from reading this report, and we welcome your participation in this discussion.

–Kevin BryanT, Chief exeCuTive, agriCulTure iTo

inTroduCTion

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AGRICULTURE ITO fuTures researCh ANNUAL REPORT 2009

Globally, food and clean water are becoming increasingly scarce commodities. Causes include increasing global population leading to a greater demand for these resources, use of land and water to grow biofuels rather than food, and also pollution and changes in climate will mean places that are ordinarily arable are not able to sustain crops.

It is becoming clear that people and organisations are increasingly thinking of water in the same way they think of other commodities they consume. Water comes with a price, and the scarcer it is, the higher the cost. Moving forward, the need for more water can be seen in almost every sphere of society including food, energy, construction and manufacturing, transport, sanitation, and so on. The United Nations predicts that by 2017 70% of the world’s population will have trouble accessing fresh water. By 2025 40% of the world population will be

living in water scarce areas. ‘Water footprinting’ is a new buzz phrase for environmentally conscious consumers to consider, with markets becoming sensitive to the use of water in the same way as for carbon and foodmiles.

Several measures are being considered globally to manage food and water shortages, and secure the long-term supply of these vital resources. Most measures are restricted to the best interests of an individual nation. Korea and the United Arab Emirates are actively pursuing a new form of colonialism by buying up land in the Sudan, with which to grow crops for themselves (The Economist).

New Zealanders are under no threat, either from shortages or in terms of our nation’s security. We are likely to benefit economically as water and food become increasingly of value in the marketplace.

“It is often the case that we focus our attention on things we know well, the things we know we know. However it is the factors that we know little about that take us by surprise, often leading to strategic failure.”

– KaTe delaney

A large amount of New Zealand’s potential wealth lies in the overall surety of water supply for food and fibre production. What are we doing to maximise this potential? Water may be abundant, but it is neither geographically nor seasonally evenly distributed in New Zealand. Infrastructure for harvesting, reticulation and storage needs to be built to deliver water to those areas where production will benefit.

This abundance of water comes with some qualification. Export markets are sensitive to issues of environmentally responsible use. Water footprinting measurements will need to be accounted for: it is not sufficient to say “we can waste water because we have an oversupply”; we must still demonstrate the good practice that is demanded by the market that the food and fibre is destined for.

What we have we must keep clean. It is essential that food and fibre production systems do not impinge on water quality in any measurable or perceptive manner. Proof of responsibility sits in

the first instance with producers. Industry based accreditation schemes which prove responsible usage in the context of the New Zealand situation and are promoted to our markets are preferable to unrealistic criteria imposed by our markets.

Training also will have two broad areas of need:

1. Targeted at water harvesting, storage and application in an efficient manner so that true productivity gains are made. This will include training at all vocational levels with a strong focus on the manager/operator, asset owner and infrastructure design.

2. Managing water so that nutrients and pollutants do not enter storage and waterways. Training will need to be at all levels, starting at secondary school, and progressing through to higher level university study. It is essential that all of New Zealand has an awareness of the value of keeping water clean; and the knowledge, skills, and research and development (R&D) ability to keep it clean.

food and waTer wealTh: The growing eConomiC value of our resourCe

so whaT?

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AGRICULTURE ITO fuTures researCh ANNUAL REPORT 2009

new aTTiTudes To learning: Beyond ‘a, B, C’

A significant part of the generation that is moving into tertiary training are ‘digital natives’ and are accustomed to learning through electronic media. Classroom learning is blurring into reality with blogging, e-learning and other tools. Learning is not a static ‘one-off’ event, but is ongoing, and learning tends to occur on the spot where the information is needed – a solution is only a Google search away. The learner may not want or value a formal qualification; they may trust the view of their online friends over expert advice.

We are entering a world of just in time learning, where answers are only sought when a problem needs to be solved. Technology can supply this just in time learning, however the amount of information available to consume is increasing exponentially. Much of this information is infomercial in nature (put out by firms selling products) and requires a good understanding of agriculture science and technology in order to analyse and make sensible decisions.

There are a number of qualifying factors:

Connectivity - can the world of information be accessed?

Does the learner have the technology skills to access the information?

Can the learner determine if the information is real, accurate, and appropriate for their context?

Tertiary education programmes are becoming more flexible; condensed, expanded, globalised, or localised as appropriate.

The type of trainee is also changing. Migrant labour is increasingly used in New Zealand. Primary sector employers must adjust their training methods to include, amongst other things, language skills, introduction to New Zealand culture, and animal welfare. It is essential for primary sector employers to be aware of and understand cultural differences.

All agriculture education needs to take account of the generally low literacy and numeracy skills of land based employees. Research has discovered that 60% of land based workers do not have the literacy and numeracy skills to effectively do the job they are currently in. The question that has to be asked is will technology assist in solving this problem or will it exacerbate the situation?

Education through technology as a medium may be a useful additional approach. Learners of the future will choose the style, culture, tutor and outcome that meet their current need and situation. Learning blended by the learner will become commonplace.

In order to be taken up and used, new technologies and methods must be simple, easy to implement, and provide value to the land manager in the form of higher profitability and less effort.

“Contextualisation is essential in the world of unlimited new information.”

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If the way we learn is changing, the way we teach must change also. It is important that the fundamentals of good education and industry needs are considered together.

Traditionally, extension learning has been placed into the context of each farm and the language of the farmer. Contextualisation is essential in the world of unlimited new information. The fundamental problem facing learning providers will be about how to educate their students/ trainees to deal with this world of unlimited information in the real workplace. The issue is not whether it is available on an iPhone, a desktop computer or in an internet café. The Agriculture ITO will need to understand and promote a “new” learning framework if technology based learning and transfer is going to be accelerated. This will be further complicated by the aging land manager/owner, who may have little or no concept of the use of technology to access information.

1. There will need to be a focus on good foundation skills and knowledge, including functional literacy and numeracy, so that R & D and other new information can be picked up and applied successfully.

2. Learners will need to be equipped with appropriate research skills. Fact or fiction? Context?

3. Digital newbies will need to learn new skills in terms of accessing information.

And what are the social implications? A risk that emerges from reliance on the internet is that it weakens relationships formed between neighbours who rely on each other for information. Group interactions are lessened and the contextualisation that comes from a group who all experience the same land conditions is lost. Successful technology based learning will need to take account of this social need and must either perpetuate or enhance good social interaction.

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so whaT?

AGRICULTURE ITO fuTures researCh ANNUAL REPORT 2009

on farms and farming: Today’s (mis)perCepTions; Tomorrow’s rules

Over the past decade, our relationship to food and fibre and how it is grown has transformed. But what about our relationship to the people who grow it? How is the role of farmers in our society shifting?

CorporaTisaTionAnyone not directly related to farming in New Zealand has a mental picture of farms being small, family run businesses. The trend in dairy is towards farms becoming large, family-corporate and equity type partnerships, with all the issues of large organisations: staff management, long term business planning, and image management. This trend has been emerging over the last 20 years, it remains to be seen as to whether it will continue and flourish. However, other farming such as sheep and beef continues to rely on the resilience of the family based workforce.

worKforCe A growing percentage of the dairy workforce has moved away from the traditional father-to-son model, and many sectors are becoming increasingly reliant on immigrant labour. Farmers must therefore become adept at cross-cultural communications. (See Trend 2: ‘The way we learn is changing’).

puBliC sCruTiny While it is difficult to accurately gauge consumers’ levels of concern, land managers are under increasing public scrutiny regarding the following five issues: food safety, nutrition, environmental protection, the humane treatment of farm animals, and treatment of workers in the food production system.

Land based industries have had a tough few years in terms of image, often skewed by creative marketing that perpetuates a less than accurate picture of land use. Land managers are perceived by some urban commentators to be harming the environment, and the economic benefits to New Zealand are not fully understood.

our BuyersMarkets are opening for NZ products in India and China, with a growing demand for animal fats and proteins. These markets will increasingly require products made to their requirements, rather than the exact same product as is shipped to Europe. (See also theme 4; traceability and transparency).

Agriculture training in New Zealand must be focused not only on production, but also a holistic approach to land and natural resource management. The new corporate style farm, especially those with high levels of immigrant labour, will need to focus careful attention on staff training in animal and land welfare.

If New Zealand’s ‘clean, green and fair’ images are ruined, New Zealand farm produce will be devalued in our markets. If this happens then our markets will be limited to those whose environmental and ethical demands are limited by the fundamental need for food at low cost.

We must understand the wants and needs of our emerging markets to ensure that we are more than answering them. What are the ethical requirements? What are the expected marks of quality?

Corporate land based businesses operate within

a more defined framework than small enterprises. They have strategic and business plans which are underpinned by operational procedures. Equipment technology suppliers are an integral part of their training delivery. Training demands will be focused and determined by defined strategic and operational imperatives.

The Agriculture ITO has three challenges:

1. Environmental and ethical awareness needs to be embedded in all qualifications and delivery across all levels.

2. Cultural differences and varying levels of education will need to be accounted for in training delivery, particularly at a helper/doer level.

3. Training and development delivery will need to be sliced in a variety of ways to meet the defined needs of corporate based businesses.

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“We must understand the wants and needs of our emerging markets to ensure that we are more than answering them.”

so whaT?

AGRICULTURE ITO fuTures researCh ANNUAL REPORT 2009

TraCeaBiliTy and TransparenCy

A growing trend is for products to be tracked across their full lifecycle; from creation through to disposal of the used product.

The consumer is increasingly involved in the food and fibre production cycle. There is increasing demand from our traditional markets for a transparent system of production, and the consumer will have even more opportunity to select the product that best meets their ethical standard with the introduction of traceability technologies such as RFID tags, and the upcoming introduction of the National Animal Identification and Traceability (NAIT) scheme.

Image is easily destroyed, however the compulsory requirement for traceability and transparency should provide solid backing for our clean and green appearance.

Meat and wool lend themselves very easily to this concept of tracking. A significant premium can be added to the product when its exact origin is identified on the label. This doesn’t work so well with dairy products – once the milk is in the silo at the factory (or even in the milk tanker), tracking becomes a lot more complex and is unlikely to occur for bulk products.

Currently a large number of meat producers operate under an audit system to allow them access to the international chilled meat market. The NAIT scheme will reinforce the source of the chilled meat and link to the individual farm audit, providing an immediate payback.

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New Zealand land managers will need to use new technologies such as those that support NAIT. They will need to run systems and programmes associated with these technologies. Do they have the skills required? How will they learn them? Do they accept the reasons, the needs and the implications of ignoring them? Meeting only a demand for compliance will bring no value to individual farms. Levering off the technology introduced by NAIT will, however, add new value.

How will land managers know what new technology to adopt? There are three basic response profiles regarding adoption of new technologies. Training should help inform the land manager to know when best to:

Watch and wait

Probe (get more information) and learn, or

Believe and lead.

As NAIT will be compulsory, the response to this technology must be, at the minimum, to probe and learn. As noted under ‘New Attitudes to Learning’; in order to be taken up and used, new technologies and methods must be simple, easy to implement, and provide value to the land manager in the form of higher profitability and less effort.

“Image is easily destroyed.”

so whaT?

Themes idenTified in 2009 QuarTerly reporTs

The themes in this Annual Report were informed by our quarterly reports from 2009, along with an annual report discussion meeting. Further information, including strategic discussion points, are found in the three quarterly reports. All themes are listed below.

Animals as pharmaceutical factories – genetic modifications so that animals produce pharmaceutical products

Food security in difficult times – global instability due to food shortages

Setting the rules – us or them? – the market dictating how food is produced

Information surplus – we are becoming awash in a sea of information

Protecting our patch – maintaining NZ’s clean, green and pure reputation

Will we go to war over water? – tensions over water shortages

The ‘new normal’ – the post GFC world – economic outlook in the wake of the crisis

‘Back up where we belong’ – raising the profile of agriculture in NZ

Where have all the farmers gone? – how do we keep and attract people into agriculture?

The changing face of our rural landscape – rural/ urban drift, corporatisation, immigration

The new colonialism – foreign direct investment – nations developing land abroad in order to secure their food supply

Blinded by China – are there other, more lucrative opportunities than China?

Defusing the ticking time bomb – the ‘perfect storm’ of food shortages and increasing population. Will GM help?

Tech-enabled learning – the trend towards online, interactive learning

Agritechnology – enabling better farm outcomes here and internationally through technology

The Agriculture ITO Futures Research approach was developed by Kate Delaney, of Delaney and Associates, in conjunction with CBA Consulting. The project scope is to identify trends and developments that will alter the current state of New Zealand Agriculture and Water industries and the impact of these trends on the development of Human Capability.

Agriculture ITO gratefully acknowledges the contribution of Kate Delaney towards this annual report.

For further information on this project and process, please contact Ruth McLennan on 04 381 0865 or email [email protected].

for more informaTion