Africa Adaptation Programme NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development Joseph D. Intsiful Data and information Management Expert.

Africa Adaptation Programme

NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development

Joseph D. Intsiful Data and information Management Expert

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

WMO GFCS Workshop, WMO, Geneva, 10 – 12 OCTOBER 2011

Content

• Background - nature of the problem of capacity in NMS

• Need for innovative approaches to capacity development

• The role of regional institutions• Building on existing regional programmes• Summary and conclusion

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Background

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Wind Storm 42.2%

Earthquake 21.5%

Extreme Temperature

2.1%

Tsunami0.6%

Slides 0.4%

Wild Fires 2.4%

Flood 25.5%

Drought 5.0%

Drought 30%

Flood 10.4%

Wild Fires 0.1%

Slides 1.1%

Tsunami12.2%

Volcano 1% Extreme

Temperature 5.4%

Epidemic 9.6%

Earthquake 15.8%

Wind Storm 14.6%

Wind Storm 27.2%

Drought 4.8%

Flood 33.1%

Wild Fires 3.4%

Insect Infestation

0.9%

Slides 4.8%

Tsunami0.4%

Volcano 1.6%

Extreme Temperature

3.8%

Epidemic 12.0%

Earthquake 8.1%

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

Loss of life

Number ofevents

Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise !

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Need for long-termplanning to manage multi-sectoral risks

Drought

TransportationTransportationHazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change!

Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

Source: 2006 WMO DRR report

Climate Products for Risk Management and Adaptation Planning

Season to yearNext hour to 10 days

Decade Long term climate change

Short to medium term weather forecasts

Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts

Decadal climate trend analysis

Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness

International negotiations with national policy implications

Climate change scenarios

Decision-making Timelines

Long-term strategic planningInfrastructures planning, retrofittingLand zoning

Medium-term operational planningRisk assessment and management

© Crown copyright Met Office

… from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest.

Products required at local scale but often available at coarse scale.

Challenges to the delivery of products and services to support national development

Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

• Over 88 % of NMHS in Africa, are challenged in delivering climate products and services to support DRR

• 92% lack appropriate application software

• 96% need upgrading of operational infrastructure to support DRR

• 92% need technical training on production of climate products and services

• 85% say lack of effective co-ordination with other agencies involved in DRR impacts negatively on operations

Need for innovative approaches to Capacity Development in NMS

• Requires supporting NMS to develop Integrated and Comprehensive approaches to providing robust and user-relevant Climate Products and Services

• Efficient data and information management support to countries to effectively support National Planning and Decision Making Mechanisms

• Participatory stakeholder interactions to involve the user community in problem definition and solution development processes

Elements of Innovative Approaches

Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service

Season to yearNext hour to 10 days Decade

Long term

climate change

Short to medium term weather forecasts

Eg tropical cyclone, storm surge, flood

Probabilistic seasonal to inter annual forecast eg: probabilities of severity and intensity of extreme events

Decadal climate trend analysis

Climate change scenarios

emergency planning activation and responseEg: evacuation

Medium to long-term strategic planningInfrastructure developmentLand use zoning and planningBuilding codes

Urban & coastal areas seasonal preparation of Stocking of constrution materials

Long-term strategic planning

Local and national emergency serviceGovernmental authoritiesPublic

Urban plannersLocal to national govtBanksCompanies

Legislators

US

ER

SA

PP

LICA

TIO

NS

ER

VIC

E

Local and national emergency serviceConstruction companiesFood suppliers

Integrated & Comprehensive Data Collection/Sharing Framework

Multi-disciplinary, Spatio-temporal and Data Platform-independent Standard

Integrated Analysis and VisualizationSeamless Data Integration

• Integrating platform to integrate heterogeneous and multi-disciplinary datasets

• Integrated data analysis and visualization – frontend of Decision Support Tools for multi-sectoral assessment

Integrated Data Analysis and Viewer

Regional Multi-tier Climate Data storage and Computational Infrastructure

Tier 2: All member countries

Tier 1: Regional Centres

Tier 0: Control Centre

NMS Components

• Climate Products and Services • Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and

organizational effectiveness• Legal, Media and Communication• Innovative Financing • Knowledge Management• Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

The role of regional institutions

Building Sustainable Regional Capacity

• Improve capabilities within MNS through collective action• Share knowledge and experiences on nation-specific benefits• Contribute to the reduction of asymmetries among countries• Demonstrate that a regional climate service can be enhanced

as a result of improving national components• Agree upon regional coordination mechanisms• Mobilize regional resources (financial, human and

infrastructure) to promote regional capacity

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Climate information as a regional public good

Inter-Regional Technical Support Component (IRTSC)

• Climate Products and Services • Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and

organizational effectiveness• Legal, Media and Communication• Innovative Financing • Knowledge Management• Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Facilitate access to the best available data and information on climate variability, change and impacts to support dynamic, long-term national planning and decision-making mechanisms.Through:•Assisting in the early analysis and design of national projects and, as those projects are being initiated and implemented.•Providing assistance to countries in accessing/generating, collecting and analyzing best available data on climate variability, change and its impacts.•Building capacities of countries to address operational challenges - establishment and use of e-infrastructure (ICT, data, tools, methods, network of institutions), early warning systems and decision support tools.

A Key IRTSC Function

IRTSC support to national activities

Country activities are designed to achieve ….

– Strengthening provision of climate products for national planning to enable countries manage both existing and future risks associated with climate change and other causes

– Building effective leadership and institutional frameworks for enhanced coordination and cohesion of activities

– Supporting the piloting of innovative research initiatives

– Identifying a range of financing options for sustained operation

– Building knowledge management systems and promoting information sharing

– Building mechanisms to ensure successful implementation of activities

activities are designed to ensure that inter-regional expertise and capacity development is provided to countries including.....

Advice and assistance relating to appropriate use of climate information in government decision/ policy-making and planning mechanisms

Support for leadership development and institutional reform as well as enabling individual development

Encouraging exposure to world best practices - data, tools and methods

Support in finding innovative funding options (e.g. public-private partnerships)

Creation of region-wide databases and learning opportunities

Support for project management to enforce monitoring and evaluation

Establishing and strengthening strategic networks

• Built/strengthened network at different scale/level:– in-country linkages between climate products and

services providers, policy/decision makers and end-users (disaster management institutions, NGOs, private and public sectors institutions).

– strategic networks with key regional centres (ACMAD, CIIFEN, ACPC and RSMCs) and International Climate Centres (UKMO, NCAR, Meteo France, etc).

– strategic networks with key international institutions (WMO, UNFCCC, WFP, ISDR, UNDP, UNEP, IFRC, ICTP, etc).

In-country technical assistance - mentoring, trouble shooting and

advisory services• Developed a Helpdesk to enable rapid response to

problem resolution – established a local network of problem-solvers, mentors and advisors.

• In-country technical support for:– services on data and information management:

data collection, analysis, e-infrastructure, tools and methods

– Support procurement, use and management of operational infrastructure - early warning systems and decision support tools.

Building on existing regional programmes

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

• Climate forecasts could be of substantial benefit to society in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.

• RCOFs produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.

• RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) .

• Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.

• RCOF sessions feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public.

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

© Crown copyright Met Office

DFID-Hadley Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP): Programme for Africa

3-year programme, 8.5 Hadley staff

Programme of research and user-guided application: for monthly, seasonal and decadal (10-year) timescales Aims:improve understanding of African climate processes, and their representation in climate modelsjointly develop new forecast products to inform early warning systems and adaptation planningstudy programmes and knowledge sharing, to strengthen climate science centres in Africaconsultation with African stakeholders to determine specific prediction requirements.

© Crown copyright Met Office

• Provide an ensemble of coordinated Regional Climate Scenarios for 1950-2100, for the majority of land-regions of the globe

• Make this data available and useable to users, with a common diagnostic set and format (following CMIP5) at worldwide archives – Regional and Global Databanks

• Provide a novel framework for testing Regional Climate Models and Downscaling techniques for the recent past and future scenarios

• Foster coordination between downscaling efforts around the world & encourage local participation in this process, especially in developing nations

• With CMIP5 provide climate simulation data to support IPCC AR5 - http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCMTerms.html

The CORDEX initiativeSponsored by the World Research Climate Programme

Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Initiative

• Generation and wide dissemination of reliable and high quality information on climatic situation in Africa.

• Capacity enhancement of policy makers and policy support institutions to integrate information on climate change into development programs.

• Implementation of pilot adaptation practices that demonstrate the value of mainstreaming climate information into development.

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Primary focus three areas:

Summary and Conclusion

Summary & Conclusion

Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

• Design and implement climate services based on the identified users’ demand

• Assist in the generation of specific public policies regarding climate services

• Ensure alliances with private, public, community and media

• Foster the consolidation of multi-institutional frameworks

• Develop a resource mobilization plan

• Ensure the timely provision of training, e-infrastructure and knowledge networks

• Ensure formal commitments and alliances.

Summary and Conclusion• Helpdesk for effective in-country technical support and

services should be established at the regional level• Data and information management strategy should be

developed and implemented.• Relevant networks and partnerships to support data and

information management should be established.• Use existing regional and international projects to harness

national resources and talents (e.g. CORDEX initiative).• Development of e-infrastructure for data and information

management, early warning and decision support tools for national planning and development.

Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries.

Continuously improve the e-infrastructure, tools and methods as updates become available.

Joint initiatives with partners to deliver products and services to support countries.

Summary and Conclusion

Summary and Conclusion

• Appropriate national and regional frameworks should be established and negotiated with involvement of all stakeholders – national ownership.

• Research partnerships would enhance regional and North-South collaboration – improve delivery of technical support and services.

• Improved e-infrastructure would enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust climate products and services in a timely manner.

Thanks