Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP)pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/161161525969948402/Group8... · Evaluating Impact: Turning Promises into Evidence Shafiullah Rasikh,

Evaluating Impact:

Turning Promises into Evidence

Shafiullah Rasikh, Qazi Azmat Isa, Ghizaal Haress, Naila Ahmed, Wali Ibrahimi (Moderator Abdu)

Kathmandu, Nepal

February 2010

Afghanistan Rural Enterprise

Development Program (AREDP)

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KEY ISSUES:

75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;

High unemployment rates and unskilled labor force;

Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how; and access to formal credit

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

PDO:

To improve employment opportunities and income of rural men and women; and sustainability of targeted local enterprises

Program Components:

(a) Community-led Enterprise Development;

(b) Small and Medium Enterprise Development;

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Initiate savings

groups and monitor

internal lending

Initiate enterprise

groups and develop

enterprise plans

Identify SMEs and

Initiate financial

literacy with SMEs

Identify Partial

Guarantee

Administrator

Situation analysis

and value chain

assessment

Inventory and

contract of BDS

providers

Discussion with banks

to identify support

need

Form and register

Village Savings and

Loan Associations

BDS delivery and

VSLA lending to

enterprise groups

Commercial bank

lending and BDS

delivery to SMEs

Innovation

awards

Seed grant

to mature

VSLAs

Human Resources;

Financial Resources

-Livelihood grants to the comm unities

- Partial Guarantee Funds for SMEs

Community mobilization

30% of CDCs in a province organized into groups (35 % female)

Well-governed community groups;

Unemployment decreased

Net revenues increased for SMEs

Incomes increased for the households

Women Empowered

Increased private sector investment;

Improved productivity and economic stability;

Delivery of technical support and facilitation

70% of groups federate to VSLAs,

80% of VSLAs receive grants and linked to MFIs;

Improved savings & inter-loaning and access to formal credit by community groups

Business Development Services to SMEs

750 SMEs supported by the project;

Employment increased throughSMEs

SMEs accessing more financial resources

High net revenues to SMEs 5

2. Results Chain

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Long-term

Outcomes

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3. Primary Research Questions

Q1: Did AREDP have an impact on increasing incomes of participating households?

Q2: Did AREDP increase women participation in enterprise activities?

Q3: Did the Business Development Services under AREDP have an impact on increasing net revenues of local enterprises?

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4. Outcome Indicators

Number of Well-governed community groups

Percentage of groups demonstrating improved savings & access to formal credit;

At least 30% increase in employment through SMEs

SMEs accessing loans from financial institutions and have at least 50% higher net revenues

5. Identification Strategy/Method

Selection of Communities: STAGE 1: NSP covers 75% of Afghanistan with est. 22,000 CDCs;

STAGE 2: Roll-out: YR1 7 Provinces; YR2 Contingent on funding and performance to roll-out to all 34 Provinces;

Selection criteria: security, better entrepreneurial opportunities;

STAGE 3: Districts and villages will be selected.

Selection criteria: accessibility, better performing CDCs, and demand for project;

STAGE 4: Households self select into Program:

Selection criteria: Interest to participate, ability to save.

STAGE 5: AREDP community groups form as savings or enterprise groups.

Selection of SME’s: Baseline survey of 1708 SMEs in 33 Provinces (2008);

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Identification Strategy/Method

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7 selected provinces

27 remaining provinces

Potential counterfactual:

At each stage, there are potential members of communities who would have been benefited from the Program but have been left out due to several reasons.

Selected Districts

Remaining Districts

Selected Villages

Remaining Villages

FUNDING

Treatment Potential Control Groups

e.g. Accessibility

e.g. CDC performance

Criteria

5. Identification Strategy/Method

Random Sample of non-participants will be drawn from potential control groups;

Impact Evaluation Method

With respect to the Community groups: Q1 and Q2: Matching

With respect to the SMEs: Q3: Difference in difference

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6. Sample and data

Sample selection and Size

Universe: Avg. 1000 CDCs per Province under NSP; 7000 CDCs are our universe from which AREDP will select 30% (2000 CDCs);

Size: Consultation with the Central Statistics Office to determine a nationally representative sample size;

Data Collection Method Quantitative methods: Design questionnaires to capture

Household, Community and SME data;

Qualitative methods: To capture process related information: stakeholders include elected reps. Focus group discussions,

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7. Time Frame/Work Plan

Timeframe:

Baseline: 2010

Mid-term review: 2012

Final survey: 2015

Process monitoring (throughout)

Work plan (e.g. activity: survey implementation and data analysis)

Consultative process to include variety of stakeholders;

Design of survey instruments

Pre-testing survey instruments

Contracting of survey firm

Survey equipment, tools

Full survey implementation

Post survey (data cleaning, verification)

Analysis to answer Q1, Q2 and Q3

Report writing

Dissemination

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8. Sources of Financing

Approx. 2% of project cost which is in the project budget. Approx. $1.5 million

Other possible funding.