Afghanistan Case Study

Afghanistan Country StudyBy Robert Swope

Introduction

This county study addresses briefly the recent history of Afghanistan and looks at a variety of

indicators measuring the country’s economic and social development. A diagnostic of Afghan

governance is then completed and followed by an analysis of the nation’s most crucial

governance issues and why they should be addressed in any governance action plan.

Country Background

Since 1978 Afghanistan has been in a state of almost constant internal conflict. What first

began as a Marxist revolution soon evolved into a ten year Soviet occupation which was then

followed by a brutal civil war, ending only in 1996 with the victory of a hardline Islamic group

known as the Taliban and its consolidation of control over most of the country. A brief period

of stability then existed up until 2001, but it was a time known for the institution of Sharia Law,

draconian punishments meted out to offenders, and the repression of women who were not

allowed to hold jobs or attend school and were barred from leaving their homes without the

accompaniment of a male relative.1

What had been once been a country experiencing modernization and higher levels of

development, (a great deal of transportation and other infrastructure had been built in the

decades prior to 1978 as both the U.S. and Soviet Union competed for influence), in addition to

a burgeoning and increasingly educated urban elite, was transformed into basket case where

those who could leave the country did and those who stayed were often displaced internally, if

not killed or maimed. In 1979, when Afghanistan’s last census was held, the population was

estimated to be approximately 15.5 million.2 Over the ensuing decade almost half of the

country’s population was killed or displaced. Figures from Amnesty International put the death

toll around 1 million during this period.3 The UN’s High Commission for Refugees, meanwhile,

estimated a refugee and internally displaced population of 6 million by the end of the 1980s.4

When the September 11th, 2001 attacks against the United States occurred, Afghanistan

once again emerged on the world stage, but this time as a pariah nation hosting the Al-Qaeda

terrorist group on its soil, from which the strikes had been planned. By the middle of December

2001 the U.S., in cooperation with local resistance groups and British Special Forces units, had

overthrown the Taliban and taken control over most of the country. 5 Before the year was over

a new Afghan government under the leadership of current President Hamid Karzai was stood

up and a U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for Afghanistan was mandated

by the UN to help secure the country and aid in its reconstruction. This force later transitioned

in 2003 to a NATO-led coalition that currently comprises 43 countries and 130,386 troops, not

including civilian staff and contractors.6 The mandate of ISAF has also expanded and now

includes assistance for both economic development and improving governance.7

The United States has recently pledge to remove all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the

end of 2014.8 It is likely all the other troop contributing nations will do so before then. What

happens in the interim is crucial for Afghanistan’s people as it could mean the difference

between a continuing or increased level of stability or a relapse into large-scale civil war.

Afghan Social & Economic Data

The current estimated population of Afghanistan is around 30 million with four major ethnic

groups comprising nearly 90% of the populace.9 The two major groups, the Pashtuns and

Tajiks, who comprise 42% and 27% of the population respectively, are the primary competitors

for Afghan power and resources.10 Both Pashto and Dari (spoken by Tajiks) are official

languages and there are 32 other minor languages spoken throughout the country.11

Afghanistan is a mostly rural country with 77% of the population living outside the cities.12

Though citizens do consider themselves Afghans, social identities in Afghanistan are

built around kinship ties, first those belonging to the family and then one’s tribe, followed by a

larger tribal confederation and ethnic group. This lack of a strong national identity along with

ethnic and tribal division, together with resource competition and power struggles, significantly

influences political life. Culturally Afghanistan is considered very conservative. Islam is the

dominant religion. The population is very young with the median age being 18.2 years.13

Afghanistan has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world. It is estimated that only

28% of the population over the age of 15 can read and write.14 In some very rural and poor

provinces, such as Uruzgan, the number is believed to be around 5%.15 The average amount of

time individuals spend in school is 11 years for males and 7 years for females.16 Life expectancy

is also low with the World Bank putting it at 48 years.17 The country has the world’s highest

infant mortality rate with 121.63 deaths for every 1,000 live births.18

According to the UN’s Human Development Index, Afghanistan is near the bottom with

a ranking of 172 out of 187 countries.19 The World Health Organization’s ranking of country

health systems, the most recent of which is from 2000, ranked Afghanistan as 173 out of 190

countries.20 More up-to-date estimates on doctors per capita and hospital bed density from

2009 put Afghanistan at .21 and .4 per 1000 people, ranking it 149/192 and 176/183, when

compared to other countries.21 The UN’s Office on Drugs & Crime also lists Afghanistan as the

highest in the world in terms of percentage of the population who regularly use opiate drugs.22

Economically Afghanistan has seen a substantial amount of growth since 2001, though

this is largely due to aid. The real GDP growth rate in 2010 was 8%, with a ten year average

since fiscal year 2003/04 being 9.1% (FY 2009/10 growth was 21% due to an exceptionally good

harvest and higher than average assistance flows brought in partly because of the U.S. military

surge of an additional 17,000 troops).23 The World Bank’s October 2011 Afghanistan Economic

Update notes that the strongest growth sectors have been in agriculture and construction.24

International Monetary Fund figures for Afghanistan’s gross domestic product based on

purchasing power parity per capita in U.S. dollars stands at around $966, up from $538 in 2002,

placing it among the lowest worldwide, yet substantially better off from where it was a decade

ago.25 Afghanistan ranks in the top tier countries in terms of equality with a relatively low Gini

Index score of 29.4, though only because almost everyone is equally poor. The most recent

estimate from the World Bank lists 36% of the population as living below the poverty line.26

Unemployment is around 35%.27 Fortunately, the country has significant potential for growth

due to its agricultural sector, a low capital to labor ratio, and a variety of recently discovered

rare mineral deposits which some estimates suggest can be valued between $900 billion and $3

trillion if extracted.28

The World Bank economic update also mentions that Afghanistan’s medium-term

outlook looks favorable but will depend heavily on the government’s “ability to successfully

manage the transfer of security control from international to national forces [that is slated to

occur in 2014], and ensure political stability and fiscal sustainability.”29 “Long-term growth

prospects,” it says, “will depend on the extent to which mining can be used to foster

development in agriculture and services, which are crucial to food security, employment and

poverty-reduction, and export revenue.”30

Whether or not Afghanistan fulfills its potential will require significant improvements in

the way business is done there. The World Bank’s 2012 Doing Business Report ranks it 160 out

of 183 countries, but only because it is in the top thirty for starting a new business. When it

comes to protecting investors Afghanistan ranks dead last and is among the worst for enforcing

contracts, registering property, dealing with construction permits, and trading across borders.31

Governance in Afghanistan

When it comes to the protection of political rights and civil liberties, the U.S.-based NGO

Freedom House in its annual “Freedom in the World” report ranks Afghanistan poorly with a

score of 6/7 (7 is the worst) in both categories and an overall classification status of “Not Free,”

meaning that “basic political rights are absent, and basic civil liberties are widely and

systematically denied.”32 It is considered on a downward trend as to these indicators due to

what are widely considered to be fraudulent parliamentary elections in 2010.33

Afghanistan is also considered highly corrupt country. Transparency International in

their 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index puts it at the bottom, ranking it 180 out of 183

countries.34 One report from 2009 by the UN also suggests that Afghans had to pay $2.5 billion

in bribes, equal to about of 23% Afghanistan’s GDP that year.35 The same survey said that 59%

of those queried viewed corruption as a bigger concern than insecurity or unemployment.36

The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), which measure six

categories it considers as capturing the main dimensions of good governance, also places

Afghanistan at the bottom of it ratings. Even so, one can see among the indicators an

improvement relative to other countries, from 1996, the earliest date for which the Bank has

data, and 2010, when it conducted its most recent survey.37 This of course may just mean that

other similar lowly ranked countries have simply gotten worse. But we can see in the actual

country governance score ratings for Afghanistan there have been improvements in four out of

six areas from 1996 to 2010, the exceptions being when it comes to Political Stability and the

Rule of Law. In Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, and

Control of Corruption, there have been improvements in governance when compared to both

base year 1996 and 2000, the last available ranking done before the removal of the Taliban.38

Political stability and the rule of law are dimensions of government that it would be

logical to believe have gotten worse considering Afghanistan’s history since 2001 and the

current struggle for power in the country since both consider violence levels in their

measurements. The political stability category looks at the “likelihood that the government will

be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically-

motivated violence and terrorism,” while the rule of law captures “perceptions of the extent to

which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality

of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of

crime and violence.”39 Each of these requires the government to maintain a monopoly on

violence, protect its population, and enforce justice fairly regardless of circumstance. However,

these are tasks in which the current Afghan government sadly fails.

A final measure of governance can be seen in Foreign Policy magazine’s “Failed States

Index” for 2011, in which Afghanistan ranks 7th, (up from the 6th most failed state a year ago).40

What’s more important than the ranking among countries, however, are how a state measures

up on 12 indicators which highlight areas of weakness and pressure points that may lead to

increased levels of conflict and societal breakdown. These include things like demographic

pressures and human flight, but also government legitimacy levels and the performance of

state security apparatuses. In these last two measures Afghanistan scores very poorly.

Key Governance Issues in Afghanistan

We can extrapolate from the above governance indicators, particularly those from the World

Bank and the Failed States Index, that state legitimacy is to be considered a key issue. The

Failed States Index rates Afghanistan 9.7 out of 10 (10 is the worst possible score) when it

comes to delegitimization of the state, meaning that there is a “widespread loss of public

confidence in state institutions” due in large part due to corruption and in the inability of the

government to control violent crime or the insurgency.41 This is the worst score it receives on

that particular index. The Worldwide Governance Indicators reinforce this concern with the

low score of -2.6 that Afghanistan receives in regards to political stability. Not only is it the

lowest of all the indicators upon which Afghanistan is rated, but it even falls outside the normal

scale by which the rest of the countries are measured, which bottoms out at -2.5.

The issue of state legitimacy is closely related to the ability of state security institutions

to maintain a monopoly on violence by defeating insurgent groups and combating violent crime

or terrorism. The support the government receives from the population is also a function of its

ability to satisfy competing factions, limit corruption, and fairly enforce a set of widely accepted

rules for governing the country. Corruption among elites engenders anger when bribes must be

paid or taxpayer and money is seen as being wasted, thereby weakening loyalty to the state

and increasing support for insurgents. Individuals and groups must also feel they are being

treated fairly, but perhaps more importantly, believe both they and the powerful will be equally

punished for violations of the law. The lack of legitimacy the Afghan government experiences,

and its inability enforce the rule of law or stamp out corruption, has negative downstream

effects related to other aspects of governance and feeds into an enduring cycle of violence.

Conclusion

In this case study we have discussed Afghanistan’s three decades of internal conflict, the social

composition of its people, the country’s level of development, and current economic figures.

We’ve also seen how it measures up on a variety of indices tracking the protection of political

and civil rights, good governance and state capacity levels, perceptions of corruption, and the

country’s predisposition for continued conflict. Analysis shows that at the heart of

Afghanistan’s troubles is the state’s inability to be viewed as legitimate by enough of its people

or to maintain a monopoly on violence. This suggests that increasing state legitimacy by

building state capacity to provide security and enforce the rule of law should be considered first

among the other governance priorities facing Afghanistan.

1National Organization for Women. Women’s Lives Under the Taliban. [Website Entry]. http://www.now.org/issues/global/afghanwomen1.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

2 United Nations News Centre. Afghanistan & the United Nations. [Website Entry]. http://www.un.org/news/dh/latest/afghan/un-afghan-history.shtml (accessed February 19, 2012).

3 PBS. Background Report: The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. [Website Entry]. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/indepth_coverage/asia/afghanistan/soviet.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

4 Khan, Ayesha. “Two steps forward, one step back.” UNHCR Refugees Magazine, June 1, 1995. http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/search?page=search&docid=3b542f1f2 (accessed February 19, 2012).

5 Gordon, Michael R. “A Nation Challenged: One War, Differing Aims.” New York Times, December 18, 2001. http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/world/a-nation-challenged-war-goals-one-war-differing-aims.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

6 ISAF. International Security Assistance Force: Key Facts and Figures. [Website Entry]. http://www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/2012-01-06%20ISAF%20Placemat.pdf (accessed February 19, 2012).

7 ISAF. About ISAF. [Website entry.] http://www.isaf.nato.int/mission.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

8 New York Times. Afghanistan. [Website Entry]. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/afghanistan/index.html (accessed February 7, 2012). 9 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

10 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Ethnic Groups. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

11 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Languages. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

12 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Urbanization. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

13 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Median Age. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

14 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Literacy. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

15 AusAid. Afghanistan: Uruzgan Province. [Website Entry]. http://www.ausaid.gov.au/country/country.cfm?CountryID=27886219&Region=AfricaMiddleEast (accessed February 20, 2012).

16 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: School Life Expectancy. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

17 World Bank. Data: Afghanistan: Life expectancy at birth, total (years). [Website Entry]. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN/countries/AF?display=default (accessed February19, 2012).

18 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Infant Mortality Rate. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

19 UNDP. Afghanistan Country Profile: Human Development Indicators. [Website Entry]. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/AFG.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

20 World Health Organization. World Health Report 2000: Health Systems: Improving Performance. http://www.who.int/whr/2000/en/whr00_en.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 203

21 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society: Physicians Density/Hospital Bed Density. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

22 UNDOC. World Drug Report 2011: The Opium/Heroin Market. http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/WDR2011/The_opium-heroin_market.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 48

23 World Bank. Afghanistan Economic Update: October 2011. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/AFGHANISTANEXTN/Resources/305984-1297184305854/AFGEconUpdate2011.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 2

24 Ibid, pg. 1

25 IMF. World Economic Outlook Database: September 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx (accessed February 7, 2012),

26 World Bank. Data: Afghanistan: Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) [Website Entry]. http://data.worldbank.org/country/afghanistan (accessed February 7, 2012),

27 CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: Economy: Unemployment rate. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

28 Unattributed. “Afghanistan’s Untapped Minerals worth $3 trillion.” The Independent, June 18, 2010. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistans-untapped-minerals-worth-3-trillion-2003616.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

29 World Bank. Afghanistan Economic Update: October 2011. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/AFGHANISTANEXTN/Resources/305984-1297184305854/AFGEconUpdate2011.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 1

30 Ibid, pg. 1

31 World Bank. Ease of Doing Business in Afghanistan 2012: Economy Overview. [Website Entry]. http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/afghanistan/ (accessed February 7, 2012).

32 Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2011: The Authoritarian Challenge to Democracy. Available at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/EFA28E3670B830004925781E000EA6EA-Full_Report.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), see pps. 3, 12, and 30

33 Ibid, pg. 19

34 Transparency International. Corruption Perceptions Index 2011. November, 2011. www.transparency.org/content/download/64426/1030807 (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 4

35 UNDOC. Corruption in Afghanistan: Bribery as reported by the victims. January, 2010. http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Afghanistan/Afghanistan-corruption-survey2010-Eng.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012), pg. 3

36 Ibid, pg. 4

37 World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators: Afghanistan1996-2010. Available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp (accessed February 7, 2012)

38 Ibid.

39 World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators: Frequently Asked Questions. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/faq.htm#1 (accessed February 7, 2012).

40 Foreign Policy Magazine. Failed States Index 2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/17/2011_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings(accessed February 7, 2012).

41 Fund for Peace. Failed States Index 2011. http://www.fundforpeace.org/global/?q=indicators (accessed February 7, 2012).

Bibliography

AusAid. Afghanistan: Uruzgan Province. [Website Entry]. http://www.ausaid.gov.au/country/country.cfm?CountryID=27886219&Region=AfricaMiddleEast (accessed February 20, 2012).

CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: Economy. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

CIA. World Factbook: Afghanistan: People and Society. [Website Entry]. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

Foreign Policy Magazine. Failed States Index 2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/17/2011_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings (accessed February 7, 2012).

Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2011: The Authoritarian Challenge to Democracy.

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/EFA28E3670B830004925781E000EA6EA-Full_Report.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012)

Fund for Peace. Failed States Index 2011. http://www.fundforpeace.org/global/?q=indicators (accessed February 7, 2012).

Gordon, Michael R. “A Nation Challenged: One War, Differing Aims.” New York Times, December 18, 2001. http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/world/a-nation-challenged-war-goals-one-war-differing-aims.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

IMF. World Economic Outlook Database: September 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx (accessed February 7, 2012)

ISAF. About ISAF. [Website entry.] http://www.isaf.nato.int/mission.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

ISAF. International Security Assistance Force: Key Facts and Figures. [Website Entry]. http://www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/2012-01-06%20ISAF%20Placemat.pdf (accessed February 19, 2012).

Khan, Ayesha. “Two steps forward, one step back.” UNHCR Refugees Magazine, June 1, 1995. http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/search?page=search&docid=3b542f1f2 (accessed February 19, 2012).

National Organization for Women. Women’s Lives Under the Taliban. [Website Entry]. http://www.now.org/issues/global/afghanwomen1.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

PBS. Background Report: The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. [Website Entry]. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/indepth_coverage/asia/afghanistan/soviet.html (accessed February 19, 2012).

Transparency International. Corruption Perceptions Index 2011. November, 2011. www.transparency.org/content/download/64426/1030807 (accessed February 7, 2012)

Unattributed. “Afghanistan’s Untapped Minerals worth $3 trillion.” The Independent, June 18, 2010. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistans-untapped-minerals-worth-3-trillion-2003616.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

Unattributed. New York Times. Afghanistan. [Website Entry]. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/afghanistan/index.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

UNDOC. Corruption in Afghanistan: Bribery as reported by the victims. January 2010.http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Afghanistan/Afghanistan-corruption-survey2010-Eng.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012).

UNDOC. World Drug Report 2011: The Opium/Heroin Market.

http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/WDR2011/The_opium-heroin_market.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012).

UNDP. Afghanistan Country Profile: Human Development Indicators. [Website Entry]. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/AFG.html (accessed February 7, 2012).

United Nations News Centre. Afghanistan & the United Nations. [Website Entry]. http://www.un.org/news/dh/latest/afghan/un-afghan-history.shtml (accessed February 19, 2012).

World Bank. Afghanistan Economic Update: October 2011. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/AFGHANISTANEXTN/Resources/305984-1297184305854/AFGEconUpdate2011.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012).

World Bank. Data: Afghanistan: Life expectancy at birth, total (years). [Website Entry]. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN/countries/AF?display=default (accessed February19, 2012).

World Bank. Data: Afghanistan: Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) [Website Entry]. http://data.worldbank.org/country/afghanistan (accessed February 7, 2012).

World Bank. Ease of Doing Business in Afghanistan 2012: Economy Overview. [Website Entry]. http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/afghanistan/ (accessed February 7, 2012).

World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators: Afghanistan1996-2010. Available at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp (accessed February 7, 2012).

World Bank. Worldwide Governance Indicators: Frequently Asked Questions. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/faq.htm#1 (accessed February 7, 2012).

World Health Organization. World Health Report 2000: Health Systems: Improving Performance. http://www.who.int/whr/2000/en/whr00_en.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012).

Governance Indicators Annex

World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2010http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp

Transparency International — Corruption Perceptions Index 2011http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/Afghanistan’s country ranking is 180 (tied with Myanmar) out of 183 countries. Only North Korea and Somalia are ranked lower. Afghanistan scores 1.5 on a 0 - 10 measurement scale. Freedom House — Freedom in the World Report 2011http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/EFA28E3670B830004925781E000EA6EA-Full_Report.pdf

PR – Political Rights; CR – Civil Liberties . Both measured on a scale of 1-7 (higher is worse).

For the Failed States Index visit: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/17/2011_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings