Affordable Housing Economic Update Sturtevant Affordable... · US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP. Thousands Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991 - 2009

May 20, 2010

Affordable HousingEconomic UpdateNH&RA Spring Policy Forum

Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhDCenter for Regional Analysis

School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University

The National Picture

GDP Percent Change, 1930-2009(Real Dollars)%

Annual Change in Jobs – US1940 - 2009

THOUSANDS

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Global Insight

Forecast > > > > > > > > > >

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Non-Mfg

Mfg

43.2

May 09

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS

Apr 10 =- 1.2 Mil

Source: BLS Establishment Survey

000s

US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted

Apr+290

Source: BLS

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

9.7 %

GI Fcst109.6119.0128.1137.4146.9156.5

L.I.

C.I.

U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov. 2006 – Mar. 2010

RECESSION > > > >

Consumer Confidence

100

Present Situation

Expectations

Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales

Existing(left scale)

New(Right Scale)

(000s) (000s)

Case Shiller Index

Source: Standard and Poor’s

+4.5%annualchange

ForeclosuresEnd of 2009000s

Source: RealtyTrac

Foreclosures Percent of All Units

End of 2009%

Source: RealtyTrac

Foreclosures Change Jan 2009 – Jan 2010

No. of States Examples

11

South Dakota (-64%)Wyoming Nevada (-18%)Rhode IslandCalifornia (-6%)DCOhio (-1%)

40

New MexicoVermontUtahLouisianaAlabamaMichigan (+54%)MarylandNew York (+31%)Florida (+15%)

Housing Opportunity Index

Source: NAHB

20 Largest Metros

The Washington Metro AreaPicture

US GDP and Washington GRP %

Washington GRP

US GDP

Thousands

Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area

1991 - 2009

Avg. = 37,000

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

000s

Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change 2008 – 2009

(000s)

Washington – 52,900

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by SectorMar 2009 – Mar 2010

Washington MSA(000s) Total -8,800

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

U.S.

Washington

10.2

6.7

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

March 2010%

US10.2

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

6.7

House Price Index ChangeJan 2000 – Jan 2010%

Source: Case Shiller (S&P)

Housing Opportunity Index

Source: NAHB

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA

Jan-May, 2006 >100 %

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

Apr =- 2 %

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA

All Housing Types%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia

All Housing Types%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeSuburban Maryland

All Housing Types%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeDistrict of ColumbiaAll Housing Types%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Washington MSABuilding Permits

2000 – 2010, 3-Month Moving Avg.

Source: US Census Bureau

Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to June 2011

Metro Area

Outlook

• Economic recovery in 2010-11– State/metro variation

• Persistent foreclosures– Second wave

• Housing market stabilization– Sales and prices

• Pent up demand– Household formation

• Affordability issue– Owners/renters

Issues to ConsiderLooking Ahead

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